Serious bitcoin price discussion. Bears only please. How far will it drop?

[BitchicksHusband]

700 seems plausible during these holidays. But once new year comes over and people start working, expect it to rise to new heights.

This kind of logic never really works out.

Really?  My only "bear moment" as a permabull was that the price would drop during the second week of December through Christmas because people would either:

1. pull money out for Christmas shopping
2. not buy more because of Christmas shopping

Sure enough, Dec 6-7 was a massive fall that we haven't recovered from.  So far, I've been proven right.

So why do people believe that once Christmas is over that people won't have more money to invest?

[1715156776]

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[1715156776]

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[HigsonPP]

700 seems plausible during these holidays. But once new year comes over and people start working, expect it to rise to new heights.

This kind of logic never really works out.

Really?  My only "bear moment" as a permabull was that the price would drop during the second week of December through Christmas because people would either:

1. pull money out for Christmas shopping
2. not buy more because of Christmas shopping

Sure enough, Dec 6-7 was a massive fall that we haven't recovered from.  So far, I've been proven right.

So why do people believe that once Christmas is over that people won't have more money to invest?

a drop happens a few weeks within christmas, and youve been proven right that christmas determines the ups and downs of bitcoin? super weak analysis bro.

did you say no more >33% drops ever? i think you even said > 50%. wrong on both counts eh

[evolve]

I think that since everyone is expecting this huge drop, we probably wont have one.  I think we may see another $100 dip at most before we start to bubble up again.

[HigsonPP]

I think that since everyone is expecting this huge drop, we probably wont have one.  I think we may see another $100 dip at most before we start to bubble up again.

a new bubble? trend is broken bro. were just gonna start flying to moon, huh?

thing is, everyone isnt expecting a drop. i think many TA readers are, but this forum, for instance, is by far still more bullish than bear. every second and third post still thinks we are heading to new ATH, all this talk about wall street trying to get everyone excited and buy back, etc

[pickard]

block 274545 

80,000 sent in this block 

[HigsonPP]

block 274545 

80,000 sent in this block 

any analysis from anyone as to where these coins are going? havent looked at any transactions...

[RHCwebhosting]

The question to ask is if bears are true long term bears or long term bulls. Whether the aim is to sell BTC for good and return to fiat forever as a true long term bear, or whether the aim is to buy back in at a lower price point because of a future price rise.

If the latter is true, the USD demand curve for BTC remains constant. The prevalence of such (long term bull, short/med term bears) actually helps to stabilize the price by catching price dips.

[BitchicksHusband]

700 seems plausible during these holidays. But once new year comes over and people start working, expect it to rise to new heights.

This kind of logic never really works out.

Really?  My only "bear moment" as a permabull was that the price would drop during the second week of December through Christmas because people would either:

1. pull money out for Christmas shopping
2. not buy more because of Christmas shopping

Sure enough, Dec 6-7 was a massive fall that we haven't recovered from.  So far, I've been proven right.

So why do people believe that once Christmas is over that people won't have more money to invest?

a drop happens a few weeks within christmas, and youve been proven right that christmas determines the ups and downs of bitcoin? super weak analysis bro.

did you say no more >33% drops ever? i think you even said > 50%. wrong on both counts eh

I missed the > 50% drop.  Since $1155 to $576 is almost exactly 50%.

So, to sum up:

Correct prediction about Christmas almost to the day.  I now predict that we won't see an ATH until after Christmas.

"Probably no more than 33% and certainly no more than 50%".  Correct again.

[HigsonPP]

700 seems plausible during these holidays. But once new year comes over and people start working, expect it to rise to new heights.

This kind of logic never really works out.

Really?  My only "bear moment" as a permabull was that the price would drop during the second week of December through Christmas because people would either:

1. pull money out for Christmas shopping
2. not buy more because of Christmas shopping

Sure enough, Dec 6-7 was a massive fall that we haven't recovered from.  So far, I've been proven right.

So why do people believe that once Christmas is over that people won't have more money to invest?

a drop happens a few weeks within christmas, and youve been proven right that christmas determines the ups and downs of bitcoin? super weak analysis bro.

did you say no more >33% drops ever? i think you even said > 50%. wrong on both counts eh

I missed the > 50% drop.  Since $1155 to $576 is almost exactly 50%.

So, to sum up:

Correct prediction about Christmas almost to the day.  I now predict that we won't see an ATH until after Christmas.

"Probably no more than 33% and certainly no more than 50%".  Correct again.

last leg top was 1240, why would you calculate from the top of the lower high?
1240-->576

or did you mean to say that no single "leg" of a down trend would be more than 50%? that's not really much of a statement.

drop on btcchina right at 50%. we see if 4000 cny holds if we do drop. but "correct again" is pretty meaningless when so little time has passed.

[TERA]

The technical level on the chart where a bottom should have been was 400-450 but it didn't happen because Chinese volume suddenly came back and saved the day. It would be interesting to see where we would go if China truly dropped out. This is why I am not comfortable to he long right now - it recovered for all the wrong reasons.

[ElectricMucus]

I think that since everyone is expecting this huge drop, we probably wont have one.  I think we may see another $100 dip at most before we start to bubble up again.

If everyone were to expect a huge drop we would already had it.

[evolve]

a new bubble? trend is broken bro. were just gonna start flying to moon, huh?

thing is, everyone isnt expecting a drop. i think many TA readers are, but this forum, for instance, is by far still more bullish than bear. every second and third post still thinks we are heading to new ATH, all this talk about wall street trying to get everyone excited and buy back, etc

I don't know, I think we have already seen the bottom; Maybe we will see <600, but I doubt it.  There is a little downward pressure right now, but its fairly low volume...I just dont see it playing out like the crash down from 266 which had a very pronounced bounce afterwards.  IMO, we will probably see a price drop no more than another $100 before we start moving up again (possibly after some sideways movement).  

I've seen enough of the older traditionally bullish forum posters around here with a enough of a short term bearish sentiment to give me pause.

I could be wrong, but I think we will start to bubble up again sooner than most people expect.

[PenAndPaper]

It is obvious that we 'll see again the 600$ bottom. The question is where the price will go from there because it will not bounce back at 1000$.
So it can either stabilize between 500-700$ or it will go all the way down to pre-china hype levels. Around 200$ that is.

[evolve]

It is obvious that we 'll see again the 600$ bottom.

Is it?  Past performance guarantees nothing, but the traditional thing we see after a major crash is a dead cat bounce that never quit reaches the ATH followed by a dip that never quite reaches the bottom.  This is typically followed by a period of sideways trading and a subsequent rise past the old ATH.

Now it is entirely possible this crash wont follow the same basic pattern as the others, but it certainly isn't "obvious" that it wont.

[pickard]

block 274545  

80,000 sent in this block  

any analysis from anyone as to where these coins are going? havent looked at any transactions...

It's all from one source, based on the time and size of the transactions.  they range from 538 - 650 and get progressively bigger.  

https://blockchain.info/block/00000000000000021aa9395c767187d1ba3507d6f95687ca350abd16fffca1e0


More BTC sent in the last 2 hours than in any whole day ever in BTC history.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions


Opps.  EDIT misread it

Turns out it's just some regular money laundering!

[uyo]

So bulls don't qualify for a serious discussion or what?

Not saying I'm bullish right now, but ironically, those who wish to hear only what please their ears doom themselves not be taken seriously.

There has been really big volume on every major exchange when the market bottomed at 7th of December. Also, it turned up slightly above the level where market found support at first major correction of this rally, which was at 20th of November.

Latest development is showing us that there is huge potential for Bitcoin in the future, and there is enough of investors who would like to take the advantage and buy cheap coins ahead of other investors buying it low. So the question is what price is cheap at this stage. It's the price where bulls are getting stronger than bears, and we've seen two times lately that this level starts somewhere around/above $500. Of course this guarantees nothing, but indicates enough I think.

Unless there is really big bad news for Bitcoin, it's pure nonsense to wait to see Bitcoin below $200 (as I seen few to suggest that), in my opinion. It's like waiting to see the price below $20 after April this year.

As long as I'm making more coins when the price is falling, I don't really care where the price goes. But remember, that too much of skepticism isn't any better than too much of optimism. This especially applies for Bitcoin, and many people had already lost enough of money/opportunity before realizing it.

[poewerden]

It is obvious that we 'll see again the 600$ bottom. The question is where the price will go from there because it will not bounce back at 1000$.
So it can either stabilize between 500-700$ or it will go all the way down to pre-china hype levels. Around 200$ that is.

Next bottom should be much lower, maybe 300$ if the down trend is really happening now

[windjc]

Please only serious posts by bears only. I need a discussion on how far you think this price will drop.

I am slowly buying bitcoins for non-bitcoin investments that are somewhat price related to bitcoins. I am only investing in non-bitcoin investments which are still cheap even if bitcoin falls below $300.

I personally believe the price is still way too high and all the signs are pointing for a big drop. Volume is also super low which usually means further drops are coming. Bitcoin has been nothing but weak the last few days and I expected the price to be in the $700's when I woke up this morning.

How far do you think this will one go until the price finally stabilizes? I am thinking around $300-500, since I always undershoot it will probably fall in the $600's.

What are you guys thinking? Where do you see bitcoin finally falling and stabilizing at?

You know I'm a bill long term but I will answer your OP question as sincerely as I can.

In looking for the new floor you need to look for a downtrend from now to first week on January.

If you see a downtrend that gets heavy resistance before $600 you should buy.

There is way too muchl money sitting on the sidelines for the market to fall far. And when it comes back in he market will have established its floor.

Most people are looking at 600 the same way they did 50. So on a down trend I would expect the buying to start between $620-$700.

[Mirsad]

Your opinion is: bitcoin will allways keep going up.

But why isn't there a correlation between transactions and price? The price is way higher then the utility of bitcoin. Either the utility has to start skyrocketing or the price has to go down. Otherwise btc price will be purely speculative and I don't like that.

[Essex343]

Most people are looking at 600 the same way they did 50. So on a down trend I would expect the buying to start between $620-$700.

how do you know that?