Serious bitcoin price discussion. Bears only please. How far will it drop?

[goodtimes73]

I am neither bull nor bear, and relatively new at this.  But it seems to me, given the insane price rise lately, and the fact that very few people appear to think it could fall as far as the April ATH, that there is a decent chance it could fall that far or further.  Any number of (perceived) bad news items such as last week's China news could trigger it, and the very low volume provides further reason to think it could happen.  Ultimately, the value of btc will be determined by how widely it is actually used as money for transactions.  By that measure, it seems quite overvalued at $1000, since I doubt its use has increased tenfold in the last couple of months.  Overshooting on a correction could easily bring it back to $266, imo.  That is not a prediction, and I would not be surprised to see it at $2000 in January.  But I am not at all confident that $600 is the new floor.

[Mirsad]

Transactions:
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/n-transactions?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address

Around 40k @ jan 2013
Now: 60k @ dez 2013
Peak: 100k

Hmm 50% more transactions.


Just let's check the price.

http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-price?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

13$ @ jan 2013
890$ @ dez 2013
1200$ peak

We have a 6750% price increase!
It's purely speculative.

[Tzupy]

Some uber-bulls chose to ignore the 'bears only' title, again. This time it was followed by a 'please'. What does it take to keep uber-bulls out of a thread?

If the current market is going to follow EW patterns, then the very bottom has to be no higher than 495$ (Gox price).
That's because corrective wave C has to be at least as large (% wise IMO) as corrective wave A.
If the market will behave like in April, then the very bottom could be in the 250$ - 300$ range.
But the bottom depends heavily on how many coins will be panic sold when most of the market understands that it's a bear market.
And that's impossible to predict IMO, could be 50K more or 150K more, with hugely different outcomes.

[Essex343]

But it seems to me, given the insane price rise lately, and the fact that very few people appear to think it could fall as far as the April ATH, that there is a decent chance it could fall that far or further.  

indeed. that's the flip side of the "everyone thinks it will fall but it wont" argument. thing is, i see much more "up up up" posts than anything else, and vast majority thinks under 600~ is impossible.

[uyo]

Some uber-bulls chose to ignore the 'bears only' title, again. This time it was followed by a 'please'. What does it take to keep uber-bulls out of a thread?

If the current market is going to follow EW patterns, then the very bottom has to be no higher than 495$ (Gox price).
That's because corrective wave C has to be at least as large (% wise IMO) as corrective wave A.
If the market will behave like in April, then the very bottom could be in the 250$ - 300$ range.
But the bottom depends heavily on how many coins will be panic sold when most of the market understands that it's a bear market.
And that's impossible to predict IMO, could be 50K more or 150K more, with hugely different outcomes.

I really was not bullish until now. But based on my previous observations on this forum, price usually goes up when Tzupy appears and say that we are in the bear market. This indicator works surely better than EW.

So from now on, I should probably stay out of this thread 

[barbs]

You guys are going to get f'ing burned. Good luck though.

[Heutenamos]

Some uber-bulls chose to ignore the 'bears only' title, again. This time it was followed by a 'please'. What does it take to keep uber-bulls out of a thread?

If the current market is going to follow EW patterns, then the very bottom has to be no higher than 495$ (Gox price).
That's because corrective wave C has to be at least as large (% wise IMO) as corrective wave A.
If the market will behave like in April, then the very bottom could be in the 250$ - 300$ range.
But the bottom depends heavily on how many coins will be panic sold when most of the market understands that it's a bear market.
And that's impossible to predict IMO, could be 50K more or 150K more, with hugely different outcomes.

I really was not bullish until now. But based on my previous observations on this forum, price usually goes up when Tzupy appears and say that we are in the bear market. This indicator works surely better than EW.

Yup, he knows wall street will get involved soon I guess, last chance for cheap Bitcoin Ladies and Gentleman

[Xer0]

will hit -100$ so you will be charged 1k for every 10 BTC you still hold!

Probably hit $.50? Maybe $.00001?

[hollowframe]

there is no stopping perma bulls on bitcointalk

[windjc]

Jesus, what's with all the whinning and complaining from bears? And what's with all the "bears only" bs.

I am a short term bear. Like next 3 weeks. So guess what, I QUALIFY.

And I think we do not see $600 for a multitude of obvious reasons that if anyone will pull their heads up out of their EW charts long enough to take a look at, make it pretty in plain sight.

Sorry, but as a bear, that is my strong opinion.

[e521]

I think we will see again $600-$650 this weekend, there is too much money on the sideline ready to buy to make it go further down
Will all the recent press coverage (good or bad) many new investors came in and many more will come next year
MtGox is not as relevant as in April and it's much more difficult to manipulate the price than before

Jesus, what's with all the whinning and complaining from bears? And what's with all the "bears only" bs.
[...]

Agree! if you are a true long term bear you wouldn't be here

[Bugpowder]

No way we go below $502 on gox.

[hollowframe]

Jesus, what's with all the whinning and complaining from bears? And what's with all the "bears only" bs.

to be fair, bears cant post anything without a barrage of bulls following up with insults, ad homs, etc

i dont see the same nonsense from bears, but, shrug

[kireinaha]

Jesus, what's with all the whinning and complaining from bears? And what's with all the "bears only" bs.

to be fair, bears cant post anything without a barrage of bulls following up with insults, ad homs, etc

i dont see the same nonsense from bears, but, shrug

For reasons I don't entirely understand, many of the uber-bulls on this forum seem to internalize any bearish bits of speculation as a personal insult and will lash out because of it. I guess that's what happens when you attach a fragile ego to bitcoin.

Most bears, on the other hand, take a more objective and rationale look at bitcoin and are willing to hear speculation and views from both side of the aisle, and are unlikely to take any of it personally. So it's good to have exclusive threads like this where bears can logically analyze market behavior without all the emotions and drama.

[solarflare]

I describe myself as a short term "technical" bear and a long term "fundamental" bull.
I believe a majority of users in the speculation sub-forum fit this profile (atm).

Price wise, I base my bottoms on %50 drops and spread my orders 0 to 20% above (in April I would have bet on 70% drops).
It worked pretty well on the last three significant drops since the 6th ($550, $650 and $800 on stamp).
I'm now 30% fiat and am waiting for the next opportunity.

I give 1% chance to a $200 scenario, 5% to $400, 20% to $500 and a good 60% to $600.
All the reasons have been mentioned already, whether it is TA or FA, it seems to point toward a $700-$900 channel with drops slightly below that.

My piece of advice: don't be too greedy or you will miss the bottom.

[uyo]

...are willing to hear speculation and views from both side of the aisle

This is in contrary to only-bears thread.

May be an exception though...

[uyo]

I describe myself as a short term "technical" bear and a long term "fundamental" bull.
I believe a majority of users in the speculation sub-forum fit this profile (atm).

Price wise, I base my bottoms on %50 drops and spread my orders 0 to 20% above (in April I would have bet on 70% drops).
It worked pretty well on the last three significant drops since the 6th ($550, $650 and $800 on stamp).
I'm now 30% fiat and am waiting for the next opportunity.

I give 1% chance to a $200 scenario, 5% to $400, 20% to $500 and a good 60% to $600.
All the reasons have been mentioned already, whether it is TA or FA, it seems to point toward a $700-$900 channel with drops slightly below that.

My piece of advice: don't be too greedy or you will miss the bottom.

Yea, I see it very similarly.

[hollowframe]

...are willing to hear speculation and views from both side of the aisle

This is in contrary to only-bears thread.

May be an exception though...

most of speculation forum is a bear circle jerk, and like i said, cant post bear analysis without bulls screaming you down, so it is difficult to hear the opinions of other bears

[Chalkbot]

Jesus, what's with all the whinning and complaining from bears? And what's with all the "bears only" bs.

to be fair, bears cant post anything without a barrage of bulls following up with insults, ad homs, etc

i dont see the same nonsense from bears, but, shrug

I guess you must be new here. After the April bubble pop, this forum was a bear trollfest. It all depends on the current market sentiment. It's easy to blabber about on your bullish/bearish views when the market is in agreement.

So I disagree with the idea that excluding one camp from your thread will lead to a more intelligent discussion. Unfortunately I'm a hyperbull, so I won't comment on the topic.

[solarflare]

Jesus, what's with all the whinning and complaining from bears? And what's with all the "bears only" bs.

to be fair, bears cant post anything without a barrage of bulls following up with insults, ad homs, etc

i dont see the same nonsense from bears, but, shrug

I guess you must be new here. After the April bubble pop, this forum was a bear trollfest. It all depends on the current market sentiment. It's easy to blabber about on your bullish/bearish views when the market is in agreement.

So I disagree with the idea that excluding one camp from your thread will lead to a more intelligent discussion. Unfortunately I'm a hyperbull, so I won't comment on the topic.

Most of the "fights" come from misunderstanding the time frame on which the other is bearish / bullish.
The only line worth drawing is between to-the-mooners and to-zeroers.