Serious bitcoin price discussion. Bears only please. How far will it drop?

[hollowframe]

Jesus, what's with all the whinning and complaining from bears? And what's with all the "bears only" bs.

to be fair, bears cant post anything without a barrage of bulls following up with insults, ad homs, etc

i dont see the same nonsense from bears, but, shrug

I guess you must be new here. After the April bubble pop, this forum was a bear trollfest. It all depends on the current market sentiment. It's easy to blabber about on your bullish/bearish views when the market is in agreement.

So I disagree with the idea that excluding one camp from your thread will lead to a more intelligent discussion. Unfortunately I'm a hyperbull, so I won't comment on the topic.

not new, well not that new, lurking since march. so i've seen the cycles. i'd say the assertion still applies.

i'm a long term bull. that doesn't make a bunch of "youre gonna get slaughtered" "to the moon" "new ath by friday" responses to bear analysis helpful to me.

[Edward50]

 I agree with everyone about not being too greedy and missing the bottom. This was my big mistake in 2011 that I regret now, but I learned from it.

Seems like the accepted and probable best low we will get is around $600. I figured a low of $300 to $500, so since I always undershoot it will be around $600 maybe even only $700.

Probably the best strategy at this point is to just sit the market out now and wait. Only buy bitcoins if its heading north for a good reason. We will probably sit back and watch it slowly keep dropping.

The speculation forum has really slowed up recently, and mt gox volume is the lowest I have seen it at only 9730 bitcoins. Seems to be dropping and dropping. The speculative boom is ending quick and many people will probably be slowly cashing out as it takes a long time getting your money from these exchanges.

Could be years before another bitcoin bubble happens.

[MAbtc]

I agree with everyone about not being too greedy and missing the bottom. This was my big mistake in 2011 that I regret now, but I learned from it.

Seems like the accepted and probable best low we will get is around $600. I figured a low of $300 to $500, so since I always undershoot it will be around $600 maybe even only $700.

Probably the best strategy at this point is to just sit the market out now and wait. Only buy bitcoins if its heading north for a good reason. We will probably sit back and watch it slowly keep dropping.

The speculation forum has really slowed up recently, and mt gox volume is the lowest I have seen it at only 9730 bitcoins. Seems to be dropping and dropping. The speculative boom is ending quick and many people will probably be slowly cashing out as it takes a long time getting your money from these exchanges.

Could be years before another bitcoin bubble happens.

Or a couple months. 

I never would have expected the October run-up to come as soon as it did.

[e521]

Could be years before another bitcoin bubble happens.

Are you serious?? Probably this is the most wrong statement in this thread 
With all the "projections" of money from finance institutions coming in soon the next bubble is just around the corner..

[PrintMule]

Thread name screams: "Clueless noobs, read me asap!"

Words like "serious" and "X only" are contributing to this factor.

[MatTheCat]

The question to ask is if bears are true long term bears or long term bulls. Whether the aim is to sell BTC for good and return to fiat forever as a true long term bear, or whether the aim is to buy back in at a lower price point because of a future price rise.

If the latter is true, the USD demand curve for BTC remains constant. The prevalence of such (long term bull, short/med term bears) actually helps to stabilize the price by catching price dips.

Long term bull here of the most wild eyed variety. Do I think BTC could take out $10K? Oh yes, but we will see the $300's first before we ever see even the $1000's again.

If you look at the astronomical run up, realise that much of the funds piling into BTC was debt taken out to invest in Bitcoin, appreciate that now that profits have been made, and now that the purchasing power has ran out of puff, positions must be liquidised to repay the debt and to take profits. And the same dynamic applies right across the board. Long gone are the days when Bitcoin was a 'cause'. These days it is the ultimate speculative roller coaster and the only reason people are investing in Bitcoin is to make money. Again, when it becomes obvious that the juggernaut is out of fuel for now, profits will be taken and sell-offs will occur.

Smart money is not going to pile into Bitcoin right now. Any rises in price comes during periods of very low volume. Even a novice can look at the charts and distinguish a blatant bear trend which may take some time (in Bitcoin terms) to iron itself out. The $795 - $345 November crash proved itself to be a bear trap, and the buying power that came in at this point was immense. Not so now after the Nov/Dec $1200 double top.

Because of all this, I would suggest that the lowest low is not yet in for this stage of Bitcoins growth. That means lower than $545. I am going for $340, around the support of the mid November breakdown.

I agree with everyone about not being too greedy and missing the bottom. This was my big mistake in 2011 that I regret now, but I learned from it.

Seems like the accepted and probable best low we will get is around $600. I figured a low of $300 to $500, so since I always undershoot it will be around $600 maybe even only $700.

Perhaps, but one thing I have learned from Bitcoin is that it has the power to totally smash peoples expectations in both directions. Just as Bitcoin has the power to shock people in how high it can go, it also has the power to shock people as to how low it can go. Lets not forget, that Bitcoin is essentially 'nothing'. It is just an idea that would disappear of the face of the planet should someone happen to pull the plug and make the lights go off. There is no rare or otherwise valuable minerals, government, or military backing/enforcing the acceptance and use of Bitcoin. Thus no physical or practical limitations on neither the optimism when the mania sets, or the dread when the panic sets in.

Bitcoin can and will, exceed expectations in both directions.

[virtualfaqs]

There's 2 factors I'm looking at: BTC China and the immense market cap that we didn't have in 2012.

My money is in fiat - bearish position. I can't predict the next low, but will keep a close eye on it and make my decisions in real time. My strategy is not to have any long term orders. I usually do 2-3 hours of research before buying or selling.

[TERA]

Good evening bears. What do you think of this?

[faizaa123]

i foresee a drop into the $700s this coming weekend... tough to call though.  i haven't been trading too well lately.

[davidgdg]

It might be a pure coincidence, but it is curious and interesting that for every previous BTC price cycles (2011, 2011 again, 2013 and this time around) the ratio of the post-crash low to the old peak (i.e. Low 2/Peak 1, Low 3/Peak 2, Low 4/Peak 3, Low 5/Peak 4) has in every case been about 2x to 2.5x:

Thus:

Opening price: 6 cents (October 10)

Peak 1: 38 cents (November 10)

Low 1: 19 cents (December 10)  

Peak 2: 1.05 (Feb 11)    

Low 2: 68 cents (April 11) [RATIO 1.8]

Peak 3: 29 dollars (June 11)

Low 3: 2.20 (Nov 11) [RATIO 2.1]

Peak 4: 270 (April 13)

Low 4: 65 (April 13) [RATIO 2.2]

Peak 5: 1220 (December 13)

Low 5: 660 (December 13) [RATIO 2.4]


On this basis, there is very little scope for any further fall. A ratio of 1.8 would give just under US$ 500 so I would be surprised if the price were to fall below that and indeed we may very well already have seen the bottom.

[johnyj]

Perhaps, but one thing I have learned from Bitcoin is that it has the power to totally smash peoples expectations in both directions. Just as Bitcoin has the power to shock people in how high it can go, it also has the power to shock people as to how low it can go. Lets not forget, that Bitcoin is essentially 'nothing'. It is just an idea that would disappear of the face of the planet should someone happen to pull the plug and make the lights go off. There is no rare or otherwise valuable minerals, government, or military backing/enforcing the acceptance and use of Bitcoin. Thus no physical or practical limitations on neither the optimism when the mania sets, or the dread when the panic sets in.

Bitcoin can and will, exceed expectations in both directions.

Not totally unpredictable

On the upside, mining cost projection limited how high the price can go (If mining is too cheap, then all the people who want to buy bitcoin will go mining, thus no one will buy bitcoin from market). The frenzy we saw this year is caused by the rising cost and difficulty of mining since ASIC enter the mining industry

On the down side, it is also mining cost limited how low the price can go. Lots of money have already been invested into mining, the cost is already there, miners will refuse to sell the coin under the cost, and that will dramatically reduce the daily coin supply once the price drop below mining cost. At that stage, many people would like to buy instead of mine, thus create support on exchange

Since there are so many fiat money out there, and bitcoin is new and interesting, some rich kids will just throw some millions of dollar in the game (like twins). If you consider this is a virtual gold mining game in cyberspace, there are plenty of kids ready to play the game

Historically, all the bubbles are caused by government printing too much money, and this is exactly the case now, with 2.8 billion dollars printed everyday, everything's price will be in a bubble very soon

[MatTheCat]

Not totally unpredictable

On the upside, mining cost projection limited how high the price can go (If mining is too cheap, then all the people who want to buy bitcoin will go mining, thus no one will buy bitcoin from market). The frenzy we saw this year is caused by the rising cost and difficulty of mining since ASIC enter the mining industry

On the down side, it is also mining cost limited how low the price can go. Lots of money have already been invested into mining, the cost is already there, miners will refuse to sell the coin under the cost, and that will dramatically reduce the daily coin supply once the price drop below mining cost. At that stage, many people would like to buy instead of mine, thus create support on exchange

Since there are so many fiat money out there, and bitcoin is new and interesting, some rich kids will just throw some millions of dollar in the game (like twins). If you consider this is a virtual gold mining game in cyberspace, there are plenty of kids ready to play the game

Historically, all the bubbles are caused by government printing too much money, and this is exactly the case now, with 2.8 billion dollars printed everyday, everything's price will be in a bubble very soon

Oh, and is any of this freshly printed base money finding its way into your pockets, or does it seem more to you that is being used as a hand out to the ultra wealthy who had great big holes blown out of their notional wealth as the housing derivatives market collapsed in 2008?

Also, the thing with the miners is irrelevant. The fact is that there are 12 millions infinitely dividable units of account in the Bitcoin universe right now with the potential for being as valuable as thin air, if the collective human mind really wanted to see it that way.

[Lloydie]

There's 2 factors I'm looking at: BTC China and the immense market cap that we didn't have in 2012.

My money is in fiat - bearish position. I can't predict the next low, but will keep a close eye on it and make my decisions in real time. My strategy is not to have any long term orders. I usually do 2-3 hours of research before buying or selling.

Here are more factors to think about

1. Fed taper
2. China slowing down economically
3. US recession
4. Winklevoss twins ETF
5. Coinbase consumer apps
6. Taxation of Btcs
7. Merchant transaction volumes
8. Hoarding - who, why and how much?
9. Dumping - who, why and how much?
10. Will someone please develop an auto Btc top up account (replenish from fiat)?

[zendantom]

Historically, all the bubbles are caused by government printing too much money, and this is exactly the case now, with 2.8 billion dollars printed everyday, everything's price will be in a bubble very soon

I dont know, you say central bank has to replace so many dollars everyday? Seems expensive...

Because new money can be created from debt only... 

[Lloydie]

Here are more factors to think about

1. Fed taper - bearish
2. China slowing down economically - bearish (less rmb) or bullish? (as rich Chinese try to cash out)
3. US recession - bearish
4. Winklevoss twins ETF & fidelity ira accounts - bullish (more fiat flowing into Btc)
5. Coinbase consumer apps - bullish (increased adoption)
6. Taxation of Btcs - not sure
7. Merchant transaction volumes - bullish or bearish depending on volumes up or down
8. Hoarding - who, why and how much? Bullish (if more long term players wade in)
9. Dumping - who, why and how much? Bearish (if the smart money knows something we don't)
10. Will someone please develop an auto Btc top up account (replenish from fiat)? Very bullish as people would be spending fiat frictionlessly across borders. Btc would be an exchange mechanism.

I added "bearish and bullish" outcomes to the above.

[sgbett]

Not totally unpredictable

On the upside, mining cost projection limited how high the price can go (If mining is too cheap, then all the people who want to buy bitcoin will go mining, thus no one will buy bitcoin from market). The frenzy we saw this year is caused by the rising cost and difficulty of mining since ASIC enter the mining industry

On the down side, it is also mining cost limited how low the price can go. Lots of money have already been invested into mining, the cost is already there, miners will refuse to sell the coin under the cost, and that will dramatically reduce the daily coin supply once the price drop below mining cost. At that stage, many people would like to buy instead of mine, thus create support on exchange

Since there are so many fiat money out there, and bitcoin is new and interesting, some rich kids will just throw some millions of dollar in the game (like twins). If you consider this is a virtual gold mining game in cyberspace, there are plenty of kids ready to play the game

Historically, all the bubbles are caused by government printing too much money, and this is exactly the case now, with 2.8 billion dollars printed everyday, everything's price will be in a bubble very soon

Oh, and is any of this freshly printed base money finding its way into your pockets, or does it seem more to you that is being used as a hand out to the ultra wealthy who had great big holes blown out of their notional wealth as the housing derivatives market collapsed in 2008?

Also, the thing with the miners is irrelevant. The fact is that there are 12 millions infinitely dividable units of account in the Bitcoin universe right now with the potential for being as valuable as thin air, if the collective human mind really wanted to see it that way.

I think you are right. I have been convinced for some time now the reason we aren't seeing inflation, is that there is no 'new money' all thats happening is there is a massive transfer of debt from the banks to the govt. The great unwinding. Rinse and repeat...

[michiganmushrooms]

Last night I dreamed of a bear. It was actually really friendly though, and it's trainer encouraged me to get close and let it lick me, like a dog. What does it mean!?

This is serious price discussion, right?

[Edward50]

Could be years before another bitcoin bubble happens.

Are you serious?? Probably this is the most wrong statement in this thread 
With all the "projections" of money from finance institutions coming in soon the next bubble is just around the corner..

Well, all that information has been priced in already and that is why the price skyrocketed to where it is now.

After the first bubble, it took over two years before it surpassed that point.

Does anyone else think my statement about the next bubble being a long time into the future is really incorrect?

[windjc]

Could be years before another bitcoin bubble happens.

Are you serious?? Probably this is the most wrong statement in this thread 
With all the "projections" of money from finance institutions coming in soon the next bubble is just around the corner..

Well, all that information has been priced in already and that is why the price skyrocketed to where it is now.

After the first bubble, it took over two years before it surpassed that point.

Does anyone else think my statement about the next bubble being a long time into the future is really incorrect?

Yes. You are just as clueless about bitcoins directions and causations today as you were 3 years ago.

[gongomanny]

Could be years before another bitcoin bubble happens.

Are you serious?? Probably this is the most wrong statement in this thread 
With all the "projections" of money from finance institutions coming in soon the next bubble is just around the corner..

This is bullish, if someone would like to invest he would keep it in secret