Serious bitcoin price discussion. Bears only please. How far will it drop?

[Edward50]

Could be years before another bitcoin bubble happens.

Are you serious?? Probably this is the most wrong statement in this thread  
With all the "projections" of money from finance institutions coming in soon the next bubble is just around the corner..

Well, all that information has been priced in already and that is why the price skyrocketed to where it is now.

After the first bubble, it took over two years before it surpassed that point.

Does anyone else think my statement about the next bubble being a long time into the future is really incorrect?

Yes. You are just as clueless about bitcoins directions and causations today as you were 3 years ago.

I was right pretty much every time with my bitcoin directions. Remember, I was the one of the few people at that time in 2011 who was saying it was way overvalued and it would fall. And it did fall all the way down to $2.00 from $30. This was when 99% of the forum were bullish and were telling me (or flaming me) I was wrong. Then when it didn't go down as low as I predicted, I predicted around $1.00 instead it only reached $2.01. I just left bitcoin all together and got involved with other things. I really didn't have that much money to speculate with at the time anyway. I figured I would wait for a stable long term price before I entered, which would have been around $10 as that is what it seemed to stabilize around for a long time. However, I was just not thinking about bitcoins anymore and was making plenty of fiat dollars.
 
When was I ever wrong? I never said bitcoin would never go up, I just said it was way overvalued at the time and I was correct. This was mostly when it was over $10.00, and it was still only a high of $13.00 two years later. My buy in point would have been $1.00 if it fell that low, I was only a $1.00 off if you want to look at it that way.

Then when bitcoin rose to about $1000 I said it was unstable and would fall. I then told people to sell above $1000 right before it dropped down to $600's. I was right again.

I honestly don't understand where I was ever wrong  .

I say now that it should fall a bit before rising, not saying a total crash but a reasonable correction from where we are at. However, I stand a chance at being wrong here because it seems that big investors have put a bitcoin floor price up. However, if anything I learned form 2011/2012 is that eventually it will fall even if it is looking stable. Time will tell. 
 

[gripflierGO]

When was I ever wrong?

Seeing the beginnings of technology which will forever change how the entire world sees money and worrying about the day to day volatility in the exchange rate instead of obtaining as much of the asset as you possibly could.

But its hard to say if it is just bubble or start of new technology. Probably something in between

[gripflierGO]

When was I ever wrong?

Seeing the beginnings of technology which will forever change how the entire world sees money and worrying about the day to day volatility in the exchange rate instead of obtaining as much of the asset as you possibly could.

But its hard to say if it is just bubble or start of new technology. Probably something in between

No... it's not hard to say. Use traditional banking systems then use Bitcoin and it's clear as day.

It is hard (impossible) to use Bitcoin only now, and exchanging fiat <--> Bitcoin is very complicated.

Remember, current fiat system has huge network effect, it is like trying Linux to overtake Microsoft

[Peter R]

It is hard (impossible) to use Bitcoin only now, and exchanging fiat <--> Bitcoin is very complicated.

We have a two-way bitcoin ATM here in Vancouver, so it is trivial to exchange Bitcoin for fiat in a hurry.  For a better rate but longer wait, just link your exchange account to your bank account. 

Once more cities have two-way bitcoin ATMs, fiat <--> Bitcoin will all of a sudden seem very easy. 

[Edward50]

When was I ever wrong?

Seeing the beginnings of technology which will forever change how the entire world sees money and worrying about the day to day volatility in the exchange rate instead of obtaining as much of the asset as you possibly could.

How was I wrong, I did see the beginning of the technology about the same time you saw it in 2011, based on the dates we registered. I do agree that it was a great technology at the time and would solve some of the fiat issues. I was big into how fiat is a scam before bitcoin.

Yes I did worry about the volatility of the exchanges, when I first heard about bit coin it was priced over $20 dollars each. Why would I invest in it at $20 dollars at the time when I was smart enough to wait until it fell all the way to $2.01. At that point I just decided for it to stabilize a little bit as I did not see it skyrocketing again at that time or any time soon (within a few months) and it didn't.

My reasons were that the price is fluctuating so much that it could just as easily fall back below $1.00. If it did stabilize above $2.00, then I would buy there without taking the risk of it falling to zero. It was actually a smart decision if you ask me, as the coin became more and more tested, and there would have been plenty of buying opportunities after that time for even $3.00 range I believe. You should know that bitcoin was untested at that time and there were still major ricks of governmental shutdown and someone hacking it driving the price to zero.

My issues were that I just got interested in other things and didn't even look at bitcoins, I never even posted from early 2012, until last month.

I do not agree with what you wrote.

[Mirsad]

It is hard (impossible) to use Bitcoin only now, and exchanging fiat <--> Bitcoin is very complicated.

We have a two-way bitcoin ATM here in Vancouver, so it is trivial to exchange Bitcoin for fiat in a hurry.  For a better rate but longer wait, just link your exchange account to your bank account. 

Once more cities have two-way bitcoin ATMs, fiat <--> Bitcoin will all of a sudden seem very easy. 

And every seller will just dump the coins @ market price to get fiat like bitpay now?
That won't solve the adaption problem.

If people allways convert bitcoin to fiat after a trade, then why use bitcoin? You could use any other electronic form of cash, even one with a fixed price.

Bitcoin will become usefull, when the majority uses it and don't convert to fiat all the time.



@ Holliday: The exchage rate is only low for people who bought @ over 100$. All other enjoy the profits. People with high buy in prices need to be optimistic, because they want a simliar performance (100000% profit). That won't be possible the next 5 years. Bitcoin won't reach 10 Mio $ (equivalent to todays dollar value, not including hyperinflation).

[Peter R]

It is hard (impossible) to use Bitcoin only now, and exchanging fiat <--> Bitcoin is very complicated.

We have a two-way bitcoin ATM here in Vancouver, so it is trivial to exchange Bitcoin for fiat in a hurry.  For a better rate but longer wait, just link your exchange account to your bank account.  

Once more cities have two-way bitcoin ATMs, fiat <--> Bitcoin will all of a sudden seem very easy.  

If people allways convert bitcoin to fiat after a trade, then why use bitcoin? You could use any other electronic form of cash, even one with a fixed price.

Bitcoin will become usefull, when the majority uses it and don't convert to fiat all the time.

Bitcoin will become usefull be valued at $100,000+, when the majority uses it and don't convert to fiat all the time.

[Dragonkiller]

It is hard (impossible) to use Bitcoin only now, and exchanging fiat <--> Bitcoin is very complicated.

We have a two-way bitcoin ATM here in Vancouver, so it is trivial to exchange Bitcoin for fiat in a hurry.  For a better rate but longer wait, just link your exchange account to your bank account.  

Once more cities have two-way bitcoin ATMs, fiat <--> Bitcoin will all of a sudden seem very easy.  

If people allways convert bitcoin to fiat after a trade, then why use bitcoin? You could use any other electronic form of cash, even one with a fixed price.

Bitcoin will become usefull, when the majority uses it and don't convert to fiat all the time.

Bitcoin will become usefull be valued at $100,000+, when the majority uses it and don't convert to fiat all the time.

Even at $100,000 you won't need the majority using it.

[torrentheaven]

If people allways convert bitcoin to fiat after a trade, then why use bitcoin? You could use any other electronic form of cash, even one with a fixed price.

Bitcoin will become usefull, when the majority uses it and don't convert to fiat all the time.

This, very long way to go there, as for now I believe Bitcoin price is overvalued by speculation

[HigsonPP]

If people allways convert bitcoin to fiat after a trade, then why use bitcoin? You could use any other electronic form of cash, even one with a fixed price.

Bitcoin will become usefull, when the majority uses it and don't convert to fiat all the time.

This, very long way to go there, as for now I believe Bitcoin price is overvalued by speculation

but the question is -- will the price actually come down much as a result of this? i don't entirely disagree with you.

[Miz4r]

The problem is, most people think Bitcoin is going to be worth a whole damn lot more in the future. So why sell for fiat now and live in fear of missing the greatest opportunity of your life? Just a couple months ago people were selling at $100, you can't just walk away and think I'll just come back next year to buy back in when bitcoin has actually matured a bit more...

[Lloydie]

Bitcoin will become usefull be valued at $100,000+, when the majority uses it and don't convert to fiat all the time.

Or some clever person invents auto Btc top up with fiat whenever a purchase is made in btcs.

That means your Btc balance will not change.

[Edward50]

I think most peoples strategy should be at this point is to sell a good portion of their bitcoins and sit on cash. If you see the price starting to rise then buy back in.

It is far too risky to sit on bitcoins right now.

At least that would be my strategy.

[adamstgBit]

I think most peoples strategy should be at this point is to sell a good portion of their bitcoins and sit on cash. If you see the price starting to rise then buy back in.

It is far too risky to sit on bitcoins right now.

At least that would be my strategy.

I disagree.

fools sell bitcoins in a bear market, its a buying opportunity, silly bears...

[Edward50]

I think most peoples strategy should be at this point is to sell a good portion of their bitcoins and sit on cash. If you see the price starting to rise then buy back in.

It is far too risky to sit on bitcoins right now.

At least that would be my strategy.

I disagree.

fools sell bitcoins in a bear market, its a buying opportunity, silly bears...

Yes it is a good buying opportunity, you sell what you have and buy a lot more at a lower price.

Bitcoin is getting weaker by the day, the price won't hold for long and a drop is almost certain at this point.

If the price looks to have regained strength then buy again.

[aneki]

I think most peoples strategy should be at this point is to sell a good portion of their bitcoins and sit on cash. If you see the price starting to rise then buy back in.

It is far too risky to sit on bitcoins right now.

At least that would be my strategy.

I disagree.

fools sell bitcoins in a bear market, its a buying opportunity, silly bears...

Yes it is a good buying opportunity, you sell what you have and buy a lot more at a lower price.

Bitcoin is getting weaker by the day, the price won't hold for long and a drop is almost certain at this point.

If the price looks to have regained strength then buy again.

You have it the wrong way. It's when the price moves upwards it will drop. When it moves downwards it will ultimately reach a critical point where people think it's cheap and buy in, creating a new spike upwards with all the sheep following since "it's going to the moon" again.

[immortal4now]

You have it the wrong way. It's when the price moves upwards it will drop. When it moves downwards it will ultimately reach a critical point where people think it's cheap and buy in, creating a new spike upwards with all the sheep following since "it's going to the moon" again.

The only point is where the critical point is, I believe because of long price trend around $300

[aneki]

You have it the wrong way. It's when the price moves upwards it will drop. When it moves downwards it will ultimately reach a critical point where people think it's cheap and buy in, creating a new spike upwards with all the sheep following since "it's going to the moon" again.

The only point is where the critical point is, I believe because of long price trend around $300

I'd say we're dropping until new years and then moving up again. In my opinion, we will not reach as low as $300, but maybe $600.

[Tzupy]

Question: why does the discrepancy between trading.i286 and blockchained persist?
This is going on for two days already, the bid sum and ask sum on blockchained keep being
significantly lower than on trading.i286. Like 34M$ vs. 37M$ and 33kBTC vs. 39kBTC.

[gjgjg]

nice thread on the price trend here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=432733&page=30

my money is on bounce at 690 on btc-e in next 24-48hrs, but whether theres enough buyers in the 600 range to push it back up to nov highs i doubt it. probably get some stability around 700-800 after the next bounce.