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Edward50 (OP)
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December 16, 2013, 05:21:33 PM |
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Looks like we bears are right again.
Well, it wasn't really that hard to understand the price going lower. $1200 bitcoins could be the biggest speculative bubble in history.
$900 bitcoins was just still totally crazy and unsustainable. $800 bitcoins, nope way too overpriced and no way you can sustain that.
It took two years for bitcoins to rise to $13, then all of a sudden people are putting that much fiat into bitcoins for the price to rise to $800?
How anybody holding bitcoins did not sell at least around $900 to $1000 and just sit on fiat is beyond me. It was almost certain to go lower. If it started to creep back up and look strong again then just buy back in.
This bubble is very similar to the 1st bitcoin bubble. There were many times I even had doubt the price would go lower, but I still felt it was overpriced and would go lower. Eventually it did go lower.
The problem is, new money can't really get into the system that quickly to sustain these ridiculous prices. Especially money into bitcoins, where it is time consuming and difficult to get your cash in. Bitcoin owners already have their bitcoins and will not be taking their own fiat and purchasing $1000 bitcoins. They are not that stupid, even though they will tell other people to buy in. The only thing that held the price higher was probably a few large investors manipulating the market.
I said from the beginning this would be a controlled drop so that the manipulators could cash out. You can't be stupid and think the price is not largely manipulated. When looking at alt-coins prices, it is so obvious to see the manipulators come in and pull their tactics, and is also amazing how much money they have and will spend doing so.
These market manipulartors simply don't have the money to push bitcoin prices higher than $1000 right now, so they will make money by letting the price drop and buying back lower, then maybe they will push the prices higher again. I do have doubts if a new bubble will happen anytime soon, I predict it could be years. Too many people will want to sit on their bitcoins in the short term thinking the price will sky-rocket again. This time they will sell fast and not be stupid to think the price is going to crazy levels like $2000.
Well, today the question will remain in my head. How could bitcoin holders be so stupid to think the price will go higher than $1000 anytime soon. How could they be so stupid not to sell out their position and sit on fiat when they had plenty of opportunity to do so? I honestly can not comprehend how stupid bitcoin holders can be and how ridiculously stupid they can be with their price predictions.
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Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
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Once a transaction has 6 confirmations, it is extremely unlikely that an attacker without at least 50% of the network's computation power would be able to reverse it.
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Bobsurplus
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Making money since I was in the womb! @emc2whale
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December 16, 2013, 05:22:58 PM |
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Bitcoins to the moon, bears to hibernation and bulls to the bank with bags of cash!
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MatTheCat
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December 16, 2013, 05:33:27 PM |
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Looks like we bears are right again.
Yup, so what is your buy-in target? Or if you don't intend on buying in, how low do you think it will hit, and where do you reckon stability will be found. Numbers backed up by facts or chart trends would be nice, although to be fair all of my best Bitcoin decisions/predictions have been influenced by instincts and/or dreams. (and my worst ones from following media and blogs that confirmed any particular emotional bias I happened to have at a particular point in time). With this said, my dream of 3 nights running where Bitcoin shockingly hit low double digits again, does give me some personal concern, as my buy-in range is $300 - $540 at present. |
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Edward50 (OP)
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December 16, 2013, 05:39:23 PM |
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Looks like we bears are right again.
Yup, so what is your buy-in target? Or if you don't intend on buying in, how low do you think it will hit, and where do you reckon stability will be found. Numbers backed up by facts or chart trends would be nice, although to be fair all of my best Bitcoin decisions/predictions have been influenced by instincts and/or dreams. With this said, my dream of 3 nights running where Bitcoin shockingly hit low double digits again, does give me some personal concern, as my buy-in range is $300 - $540 at present. Personally, I don't think charts can be a very good price predictor. They may be but I simply just go by my own intuition. I take into account what seems reasonable and what doesn't. Where I feel the price will go to is probably around $300-$500 also. I usually undershoot a bit so it will fall to $600. |
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
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GigaCoin
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 308
Merit: 251
Giga
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December 16, 2013, 05:48:45 PM |
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My expected lowest target is $490-$550
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yomofo
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December 16, 2013, 06:07:35 PM |
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before i understood that china banned bitcoin commerce i expected 300-600 for the low. probably around 4-500.
however, the fundamentals may have changed. if the rumors of china banning payment services to btc exchanges are true, that removes all the chinese demand for btc and puts a ton of long term selling pressure on btc. without China i assume the bottome could even be low 200s
doesnt really matter, im mostly fiat and short selling 15% of my bankroll right now. making money no matter what. ill have to evaluate what the facts are regarding China's payments on btc if they banned payouts/withdrawals or not. i wont be too happy if i end up all in at 450, then watch it drop to $250 and stagnate for months.
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MatTheCat
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December 16, 2013, 07:19:03 PM |
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Personally, I don't think charts can be a very good price predictor. They may be but I simply just go by my own intuition. I take into account what seems reasonable and what doesn't.
Where I feel the price will go to is probably around $300-$500 also. I usually undershoot a bit so it will fall to $600.
Hmm. It just hit $665 (on Bitstamp) without so much as a bang. This makes me think that the actual low will be dramatically lower than this. Usually, the lowest of the lows are found in quite a dramatic fashion before an upswing that represents the market telling us that this low-point was a gross underestimation. My highest buy in tranche on Bitstamp is at $550. Just a few days ago, I was considering whether this was a bit optimistic. Now I am thinking that it is perhaps a bit risky. |
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outofservice
Member
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Activity: 70
Merit: 11
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December 16, 2013, 07:52:51 PM |
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Personally, I don't think charts can be a very good price predictor. They may be but I simply just go by my own intuition. I take into account what seems reasonable and what doesn't.
Where I feel the price will go to is probably around $300-$500 also. I usually undershoot a bit so it will fall to $600.
Hmm. It just hit $665 (on Bitstamp) without so much as a bang. This makes me think that the actual low will be dramatically lower than this. Usually, the lowest of the lows are found in quite a dramatic fashion before an upswing that represents the market telling us that this low-point was a gross underestimation. My highest buy in tranche on Bitstamp is at $550. Just a few days ago, I was considering whether this was a bit optimistic. Now I am thinking that it is perhaps a bit risky. I keep reading this and see two interpretations. Are you saying you think the low will be lower than $550 or that it won't get as low as $550? Just my guess but I'm thinking easy $500-$550 by late thursday/early fri. Leveling around that range until after Christmas with a very gentle climb to New Years. EDIT *** I just read the news about China. Wether it's true or not... by late thurs/early fri $400-4450 |
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Sam-Os
Member
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Activity: 87
Merit: 11
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December 16, 2013, 07:53:31 PM |
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It's all speculation man, nobody really knows or can tell you.
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Edward50 (OP)
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December 17, 2013, 01:11:15 AM |
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I'm just hoping it holds just a little longer so I can cash out my little play money I bought last week. Liquidating all my play positions to get my bitcoin back. We are only talking like 3 bitcoin here, but $850-950 dollar bitcoins.
Luckily I bet good, because I am still up at the moment even though losses are heavy.
Hopefully the bulls can be optimistic just a little longer.
This is why I didn't speculate in 2012, because after watching bitcoins fall from $30 to $2.01, really didn't want myself putting fiat into it at the time. Easy to say I was stupid now, when bitcoins rose recently. However, now I know why after being active during that time why I didn't invest even though I really do like the idea.
My plan was to invest when bitcoin reached a longterm stable price, that would have been around $10.00 but stupid me just forgot about bitcoins.
$750 bitcoin price right now is way too high. I would say with china slowly being put out of the market, things should go back to reasonable growth levels. We were at $13 in January, I say we really shouldn't be higher than $100 at this point. I doubt it will fall that low, but the risk is there. The risk is far too high to be investing in bitcoins at anything higher than $200 dollars.
I just don't see the long term gain here when you could invest in other currencies that may come out in the future. Downloading over 10GB of data didn't make me feel really good about bitcoins long term growth.
It is far easier for you guys who own bitcoins, when they were under $20, to stick in the game, but buying them at $650 or $500 or $400 is still a highly risky investment, unless it stabilized around that point for a really long time.
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Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
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T.Stuart
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December 17, 2013, 01:17:18 AM |
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I'm just hoping it holds just a little longer so I can cash out my little play money I bought last week. Liquidating all my play positions to get my bitcoin back. We are only talking like 3 bitcoin here, but $850-950 dollar bitcoins.
Luckily I bet good, because I am still up at the moment even though losses are heavy.
Hopefully the bulls can be optimistic just a little longer.
This is why I didn't speculate in 2012, because after watching bitcoins fall from $30 to $2.01, really didn't want myself putting fiat into it at the time. Easy to say I was stupid now, when bitcoins rose recently. However, now I know why after being active during that time why I didn't invest even though I really do like the idea.
My plan was to invest when bitcoin reached a longterm stable price, that would have been around $10.00 but stupid me just forgot about bitcoins.
$750 bitcoin price right now is way too high. I would say with china slowly being put out of the market, things should go back to reasonable growth levels. We were at $13 in January, I say we really shouldn't be higher than $100 at this point. I doubt it will fall that low, but the risk is there. The risk is far too high to be investing in bitcoins at anything higher than $200 dollars.
I just don't see the long term gain here when you could invest in other currencies that may come out in the future. Downloading over 10GB of data didn't make me feel really good about bitcoins long term growth.
It is far easier for you guys who own bitcoins, when they were under $20, to stick in the game, but buying them at $650 or $500 or $400 is still a highly risky investment, unless it stabilized around that point for a really long time.
Yes but a lot of people really believe that Bitcoin is going to go up much more next year. And with this thinking comes the thought that whether or not I buy in at 400 or 600 or 800 now, best be on the safe side and at least have Bitcoins. Because the returns in a year will be good any which way. I would not wait more than three weeks before getting in. |
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evolve
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December 17, 2013, 04:56:09 AM |
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The situation is definitely looking worse now...we may see sub $600 after all.
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yomofo
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December 17, 2013, 08:15:04 AM |
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The situation is definitely looking worse now...we may see sub $600 after all.
Today China already hit 3310 CNY= $542 USD and they used to be the price leader. It's not over. |
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Tzupy
Legendary
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Activity: 2128
Merit: 1074
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December 17, 2013, 10:37:09 AM |
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Until today, my guesstimate of the time required to reach the very bottom was no longer than the 22nd December, but after
comparing the patterns of April 12th - 16th to the current ones, it seems that the moves take now about 5 times longer.
So if the market will continue to move at this slow rate, the very bottom might be reached only around the 28th December.
If the 5x longer time for moves will be confirmed, then a new fully developed bull market might only start in about 12 - 15 months from now.
The discrepancy between trading.i286 and blockchained has grown larger, wtf does this mean?
Trading.i286 shows right now about 49.5k coins on the Gox ask side, while blockchained only about 38k.
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Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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windjc
Legendary
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
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December 17, 2013, 10:38:28 AM |
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Until today, my guesstimate of the time required to reach the very bottom was no longer than the 22nd December, but after
comparing the patterns of April 12th - 16th to the current ones, it seems that the moves take now about 5 times longer.
So if the market will continue to move at this slow rate, the very bottom might be reached only around the 28th December.
If the 5x longer time for moves will be confirmed, then a new fully developed bull market might only start in about 12 - 15 months from now.
The discrepancy between trading.i286 and blockchained has grown larger, wtf does this mean?
Trading.i286 shows right now about 49.5k coins on the Gox ask side, while blockchained only about 38k.
You can't extrapolate like that. |
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Bobsurplus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Making money since I was in the womb! @emc2whale
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December 17, 2013, 03:54:20 PM |
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Guys, sorry to break it to you bears, but in the long run bitcoin is going to the moon, get all you can now at sub 1k levels because come 2014 its going to be a whole new world.
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Mirsad
Full Member
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Activity: 140
Merit: 100
Bitcoin - love & hate
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December 17, 2013, 04:45:25 PM |
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Guys, sorry to break it to you bears, but in the long run bitcoin is going to the moon, get all you can now at sub 1k levels because come 2014 its going to be a whole new world.
Dellusion  Transactions increased only 50% in 1 year. Bitcoin has a long way to go till real life utility becomes significant. Price is up 6500%... Overspeculating ... You expect another 5000% price increase without more transactions? |
< 100 BTC is not worth mentioning. Poor souls will always remain poor. Don't miss the failtrain.
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Bobsurplus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Making money since I was in the womb! @emc2whale
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December 17, 2013, 04:54:04 PM |
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Guys, sorry to break it to you bears, but in the long run bitcoin is going to the moon, get all you can now at sub 1k levels because come 2014 its going to be a whole new world.
Dellusion Transactions increased only 50% in 1 year. Bitcoin has a long way to go till real life utility becomes significant. Price is up 6500%... Overspeculating ... You expect another 5000% price increase without more transactions? I expect BTC to take over the financial world in 2014-2015! |
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SuperHakka
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December 17, 2013, 04:58:39 PM |
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Guys, sorry to break it to you bears, but in the long run bitcoin is going to the moon, get all you can now at sub 1k levels because come 2014 its going to be a whole new world.
Dellusion Transactions increased only 50% in 1 year. Bitcoin has a long way to go till real life utility becomes significant. Price is up 6500%... Overspeculating ... You expect another 5000% price increase without more transactions? I expect BTC to take over the financial world in 2014-2015! If that happens I will eat your hat |
'First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they attack you. Then you win.' - Mohandas Gandhi
"Whenever I'm about to do something, I think, 'Would an idiot do this?' and if he would, I do not do that thing." - Dwight Schrute
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Bobsurplus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Making money since I was in the womb! @emc2whale
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December 17, 2013, 05:01:01 PM |
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Guys, sorry to break it to you bears, but in the long run bitcoin is going to the moon, get all you can now at sub 1k levels because come 2014 its going to be a whole new world.
Dellusion Transactions increased only 50% in 1 year. Bitcoin has a long way to go till real life utility becomes significant. Price is up 6500%... Overspeculating ... You expect another 5000% price increase without more transactions? I expect BTC to take over the financial world in 2014-2015! If that happens I will eat your hat Well, I happen to not wear a hat, I wear a helmet with built in babrwire around it, in case anyone tries to de-helmet me. Be prepared for a bloody meal! |
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