Serious bitcoin price discussion. Bears only please. How far will it drop?

[imamanandyou]

So what just happened over the past 24h then? Will it be coming back down again any time soon? Or have we recovered that quickly?

No, I still see downtrend in graph data, so I expect the price coming back down again to under 500 range

[Impaler]

Were in an upward trend in available coins on Gox that goes back to the start of December, Depth took a hit recently but if it returns to it's prior accumulation rate it will be 4-5 days for it to return to the ~40K level that it was at just prior to the recent buy.

Dollar depth looks to have maxed out at 35 million and has been staying near that level, with brief downward spikes before even the beginning of December.  This clearly indicates the upward phase is over and the best that can be hoped for is stabilization, but we will likely see downward pressure from China for at least another month.

[jamesc760]

Ok, I'm fairly new to bitcoins, having been trading etc.. since May of this year.

I'm reading all the speculation on here, and there are some things that are certain. The current price of bitcoins has zero affect on future prices. Just like stocks or commodities on the market, prices are affected more by external events than anything else.

Now since bitcoins are a currency, (to those who trade with them they are, so for our purposes they are), then things that affect currencies will affect bitcoins.

The speculation in China that bitcoins were going to be accepted by the central bank is what drove the really big increase to $1200 per bitcoin.

But, there is also another thing going on, the Ukraine has been in financial crisis for several weeks. And has just now agreed to a bail out from Russia.

I think these two things first China's central bank not accepting bitcoins, causing it to fall from the $1200 high, but then the instability in Ukraine has been holding it up in the $800 to $900 range for the past week or so.

Now that the Ukraine situation appears to be resolved, then I believe the price point will come down some. I wish I had that crystal ball to know exactly where that point is, as we all do I suppose.

I believe we will see prices in the $400 to $500 range, then slowly rebound.

Nice try, bud! However, the situation in Ukraine has nothing to do with the bitcoin price movement currently. They've been protesting in Kiev for the last few weeks. When the police moved in, trying to beat the protesters into submission, the bitcoin didn't budge a bit. Okay, so Putin and the Ukraine President What's-his-face got together (did you see the picture of the two men? Putin looks so dimunitive, almost dwarvish, next the Ukraine guy), and announced the bail out by Russia, it had no effect on the bitcoin price.

[CryptStorm]

Well, we've seen 450(gox), as a deeper dive was too much downward pressure to be sustained, and investors wanted cheap coins; and, now we've bounced up to 750 (gox)-- just looking at it, we might even get another rounded top, at as high as 830, imo, and then continue our resumed reduction towards a bottom, which we have not found.

All of the previous adoption spikes (not bubbles, because they ended much higher than they started-- important difference) took longer to *unwind* in terms of time, than to *escalate*. QED, we've got a month or two more of this, and after the next big correction, most of that time will be a stagnant sideways crawl, as we begin to repressurize (slowly) in anticipation of big money, smart money, and increased transactions which are already slated for Q2-Q3 of 2014.

Targets: one more drop to 300 or 400, another bounce and then a languishing crawl back to the same bottom by end of winter (just in time for lover's day, here in the states!)

Lastly, this adoption spike (if you subscribe to the reasonable presumption that Bitcoin behaves similarly to a natural phenomenon, an S-curve pathway) has already factored in all of the news, new buyers, legislation, etc. Those who have been made aware of Bitcoin, and can do something about it, or have chosen to do something about it, have already acted. The pressure exceeded the natural price increase! We got a spike!  

Edit: In full disclosure, I was full fiat for the last few days (a bear can smell these things), bought the dip at 490 (gox) and am now back to full fiat (749 gox). This 'luck' may color my perspective-- probably, I'm just a much better bear than bull.

[CryptStorm]

before i understood that china banned bitcoin commerce i expected 300-600 for the low.  probably around 4-500.


however, the fundamentals may have changed.  if the rumors of china banning payment services to btc exchanges are true, that removes all the chinese demand for btc and puts a ton of long term selling pressure on btc.  without China i assume the bottome could even be low 200s


doesnt really matter, im mostly fiat and short selling 15% of my bankroll right now.  making money no matter what.  ill have to evaluate what the facts are regarding China's payments on btc if they banned payouts/withdrawals or not.  i wont be too happy if i end up all in at 450, then watch it drop to $250 and stagnate for months.

Are you shorting on bitfinex, please? I'm asking around because it's rather shocking so few exchanges are offering both sides of the buy/sell. I mean, I get that we don't have derivatives, but so few houses offering shorts...

I'm thinking of bitfinex, FWIW, so would appreciate the confirmation or advice-- I have several accounts, but most of my stash is traded at gox (please also feel free to disabuse me of this error). Anyone, feel free to PM me.