BTC maxed before 2140

[uartasic]

hi all,

i have been wondering in the groups of BTC owners at my work and now want to know in this open forum.

given how fast technology moves and given its based on demand and innovation, i wonder if we would hit the magic 21 millionth BTC sooner?

i would imagine the projection of the last mined coin was based on current technology available on the open market. however as tech develops even faster, for example some insane rigs with ASICS, i wonder if this can have a bearing on the rate its being mined.

anyone elese tough about this as well? if so what are your thoughts. surely not the only one thinking about this.

[BlockChainLottery]

No, it will be around that date. Every 10 days the difficulty is adjusted to the hashing power, so that a block will be mined every 10 minutes.

[Sindelar1938]

If the difficulty becomes too low I.e blocks are getting created too quickly, the diff will be raised

Whichever way you look at it, 2140 it is

[uartasic]

ok thanks for clarifying that.

so essentially, should hash rates get astronomical, the difficulty kicks in to control the BTC availability/creation. gotcha.

cheers.

[wangjy]

me too. it usually takes several minutes to start .

[Abdizriel]

It's big Hash/s to mine BTC now.
If you'd like to mine 1 BTC/day you need 2TH/s.

[cpupower]

So for newbie like, is it better to trade instead of investing in mining?

[operrajunk74]

given how fast technology moves and given its based on demand and innovation, i wonder if we would hit the magic 21 millionth BTC sooner?

i would imagine the projection of the last mined coin was based on current technology available on the open market. however as tech develops even faster, for example some insane rigs with ASICS, i wonder if this can have a bearing on the rate its being mined.

anyone elese tough about this as well? if so what are your thoughts. surely not the only one thinking about this.

If the difficulty could rise +25% forever, all Bitcoins will be mined 25% sonner, so about 2110

[ajax3592]

given how fast technology moves and given its based on demand and innovation, i wonder if we would hit the magic 21 millionth BTC sooner?

i would imagine the projection of the last mined coin was based on current technology available on the open market. however as tech develops even faster, for example some insane rigs with ASICS, i wonder if this can have a bearing on the rate its being mined.

anyone elese tough about this as well? if so what are your thoughts. surely not the only one thinking about this.

If the difficulty could rise +25% forever, all Bitcoins will be mined 25% sonner, so about 2110

One could never tell if people would be still excited about them a century later. Common human tendency is to move onto the "NEXT BIG THING"

[DaliborLakicevic]

Yeah, I've been wondering the same thing.  If difficulty is adjusted according to network hash rates, it does seem that investing into mining, at least buying your own mining equipment is not a good option, unless you have like $50k.

Is there any way to "rent" mining power? For example : pay $XXX/Thash/day or something like that?

I'm sorry, I am new at BTC and haven't figured out many things yet. Sorry if I am asking wrong stuff

[melvster]

Yeah, I've been wondering the same thing.  If difficulty is adjusted according to network hash rates, it does seem that investing into mining, at least buying your own mining equipment is not a good option, unless you have like $50k.

Is there any way to "rent" mining power? For example : pay $XXX/Thash/day or something like that?

I'm sorry, I am new at BTC and haven't figured out many things yet. Sorry if I am asking wrong stuff

yes you can outsource mining to the cloud

[PenAndPaper]

Yes will reach 21m much faster. Maybe dozens of years earlier because of the constant rise in difficulty.
The 2016 blocks before each adjustment are being mined as early as in 11 or 12 days right now instead of 14.

[BlockChainLottery]

So for newbie like, is it better to trade instead of investing in mining?

Trading I would say.

Yeah, I've been wondering the same thing.  If difficulty is adjusted according to network hash rates, it does seem that investing into mining, at least buying your own mining equipment is not a good option, unless you have like $50k.

Is there any way to "rent" mining power? For example : pay $XXX/Thash/day or something like that?

I'm sorry, I am new at BTC and haven't figured out many things yet. Sorry if I am asking wrong stuff

Yes, there is. Google something like: bitcoin rent hashing

Yes will reach 21m much faster. Maybe dozens of years earlier because of the constant rise in difficulty.
The 2016 blocks before each adjustment are being mined as early as in 11 or 12 days right now instead of 14.

No, you are wrong. Read: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

[BurtW]

Yes will reach 21m much faster. Maybe dozens of years earlier because of the constant rise in difficulty.
The 2016 blocks before each adjustment are being mined as early as in 11 or 12 days right now instead of 14.

No, you are wrong. Read: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

No, he is correct.

We can see by the current reward drop estimate of 2016-09-17 07:56:08 UTC (143 weeks, 6 days, 20 hours) that the ending date has been "pulled in" over three months so far.

[Tpeoy]

Yes will reach 21m much faster. Maybe dozens of years earlier because of the constant rise in difficulty.
The 2016 blocks before each adjustment are being mined as early as in 11 or 12 days right now instead of 14.

No, you are wrong. Read: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

No, he is correct, kindof.  "dozens of years" may be a high estimate.

We can see by the current reward drop estimate of 2016-09-17 07:56:08 UTC (143 weeks, 6 days, 20 hours) that the ending date has been "pulled in" over three months so far.

Yup, PenAndPaper and BurtW are correct.
Difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks and block reward halves every 210000 blocks.
As the hashrate is increasing, we get 2016 block in 12-13 days (instead of 14 days), and so we don't need 4 years to reach block halving.

[BlockChainLottery]

Yes will reach 21m much faster. Maybe dozens of years earlier because of the constant rise in difficulty.
The 2016 blocks before each adjustment are being mined as early as in 11 or 12 days right now instead of 14.

No, you are wrong. Read: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

No, he is correct.

We can see by the current reward drop estimate of 2016-09-17 07:56:08 UTC (143 weeks, 6 days, 20 hours) that the ending date has been "pulled in" over three months so far.

So we get there earlier because before the difficulty is adjusted, we mine a few blocks too many?
Then practically yes, but sort of theoretically no? Blocks are only faster generated because the difficulty is only adjusted every so often.
Correct me if I'm wrong.

[BurtW]

So we get there earlier because before the difficulty is adjusted, we mine a few blocks too many?
Then practically yes, but sort of theoretically no? Blocks are only faster generated because the difficulty is only adjusted every so often.
Correct me if I'm wrong.

I do not know what you mean by "theoretically no".  What I do know is that in reality we are currently over three months ahead of schedule.  How this will play out over the next 100 years is anyones guess.  Assuming that during that time there is never a time when the difficulty adjustment periods takes longer than 14 days and we never "gain back" this lost time then yes the system will mine the last satoshi before the originally designed end date.

The difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks no matter how long that takes.  Currently it is taking less than 14 days per difficulty adjustment period.

So you were wrong before but I think you got it now.

[BlockChainLottery]

So you were wrong before but I think you got it now.

Yes.

[Uneta]

The difficulty is adjusted based on the average time need to find the the previous 2016 block.

So, when the hashrate keeps on increasing (hashrate at the end of period >> hashrate at the beginning), the difficulty would be adjusted "not high enough". Due to this "lag", instead of 14 days, it only takes 12 days to find the next 2016 block, and so on.