MINING IS PROFITABLE

[tMouse]

• I am assuming difficulty will rise 30% every ten days

I'm going to point out that since I started messing with Bitcoin last week, the estimated time it would take to find a block doubled. That seems less like 30% and more like 100%.

[Enky1974]

• I am assuming difficulty will rise 30% every ten days

I'm going to point out that since I started messing with Bitcoin last week, the estimated time it would take to find a block doubled. That seems less like 30% and more like 100%.

I moved from a daily average of 12 btc to a current daily reward of 8 btc in one month, due to the recent difficulty increase.
I've a an ati 5870, ~330khash/sec

[eserge]

I think 5970 is highly overpriced for mining.
Let's say your price of $2000 for double 5970's box is quite reasonable. And it's output is 1200 Mhash/s. But for $1200 I can assemble 3x5870 box with ~1000 Mhash/s output. In the first case you pay $1.66 for Mhash/sec and in the second case only $1.2 for Mhash/sec. So I think it's not that important how much Mhashes your system can get overall, more important is how much you pay for Mhash you get.

But I'm quite a noob in mining may be there are another reasons in getting 5970s.

[dingus]

I think 5970 is highly overpriced for mining.
Let's say your price of $2000 for double 5970's box is quite reasonable. And it's output is 1200 Mhash/s. But for $1200 I can assemble 3x5870 box with ~1000 Mhash/s output. In the first case you pay $1.66 for Mhash/sec and in the second case only $1.2 for Mhash/sec. So I think it's not that important how much Mhashes your system can get overall, more important is how much you pay for Mhash you get.

But I'm quite a noob in mining may be there are another reasons in getting 5970s.

If you go the 5870 route, you will need more cpus and other parts of the computer to run them, which add nothing to mining. 5970s allow you to spend less on the useless things (cpu, ram, hard disks) and spend more on acquiring more 5970s.

[Anonymous]

I think 5970 is highly overpriced for mining.
Let's say your price of $2000 for double 5970's box is quite reasonable. And it's output is 1200 Mhash/s. But for $1200 I can assemble 3x5870 box with ~1000 Mhash/s output. In the first case you pay $1.66 for Mhash/sec and in the second case only $1.2 for Mhash/sec. So I think it's not that important how much Mhashes your system can get overall, more important is how much you pay for Mhash you get.

But I'm quite a noob in mining may be there are another reasons in getting 5970s.

If you know what you are doing and can source the parts a dual 5970 can be built for under 1400.

[Syke]

If you know what you are doing and can source the parts a dual 5970 can be built for under 1400.

What, using a bunch of used parts off ebay? 5970s are too expensive and hard to get to build a dual-rig for under 1400 using new parts.

[Anonymous]

If you know what you are doing and can source the parts a dual 5970 can be built for under 1400.

What, using a bunch of used parts off ebay? 5970s are too expensive and hard to get to build a dual-rig for under 1400 using new parts.

Thats the main reason the difficulty will slow down. They no longer manufacture 5970's either.

[ribuck]

ATI is going to wonder one day why the 5970 sold like hot cakes.

[marcus_of_augustus]

When the gamers start unloading 5970's when the next greatest Nvidia comes out then miners will be scooping them up ... there are refurbished sources around if you can find them.

[JWU42]

The 6990 is coming - at some point....

[aistto]

The 6990 is coming - at some point....

I think, it will be quite expencive

[friendsofkim]

When Bitcoin is priced as a function of the goods and services and the productive capacity of the community surrounding it, as well as the cost to mine it, the value is more stable and real.

If the value of bitcoin falls below the cost of mining, difficulty will fall as mining slows down. As long as there is mining to do, the market will find a difficulty level to make sure it's profitable for someone to do it. (If difficulty falls to 1, someone could just switch on their miner and claim the 50 BTC with no cost at all.)

I agree with casascius that the value creation of the bitcoin economy will back the price of bitcoin. In the long run that's what will drive demand and mining will become less important.

Would be interesting to see a plot correlating network difficulty and bitcoin value (as based on a basket of commodities and currencies).

Agreed.

[wb3]

The problem is that you didn't read PDF. Every 4  years it will get less of an award. And as the computational power goes up(competition), you will make less and less. Towards the end of the cycle it would become useless to mine. The "Rush" is within the first 4 years. This makes sense, to give legitimacy and value to the system. But in 2012 cut your numbers in Half. In 2016, cut them in half again. And to make it a more realistic sheet tie the BitCoins to an intrinsic value (i.e. Gold) to properly gage value. Allow the fluctuation of the value in the cells. (don't know if Google allows an OLE function but that would be cool).

Basically your sheet does not show diminishing returns, so you will not know when to stop.  Keep a EI:EO ratio.  Energy In:Energy Out. When you reach >1.0 Stop because you will be loosing money. If the Market changes and the EI:EO ration falls below <1.0 start again.  Because BitCoins is a finite resource (fictional that it be) you will be able to time the market pretty closely because it is Math and not actual digging. Jump in and out at the best probable times.

Check out Hubbert's Peak Oil formulas, they would apply here. (BTW, we have passed it on a world scale for Oil Production, the US was in 1972)
--> Shell tried to keep it secret, didn't want to scare anyone.

Also the true count in Black Jack could be applied to know when to place your bets (Start your mining Ops).

[vasisualiy]

Here is my mining spreadsheet.

Assumptions: (PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CHALLENGE):

• Value of a BTC will always be related to the cost of power to produce it, since that's directly related to difficulty, which in turn is related to Bitcoin's popularity

It's bull shit. Value of BTC is a term of trust. Nothing more. Mining is a waste of time and cost.
[/list]

[tryptamine]

Here is my mining spreadsheet.

Assumptions: (PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CHALLENGE):

• Value of a BTC will always be related to the cost of power to produce it, since that's directly related to difficulty, which in turn is related to Bitcoin's popularity

It's bull shit. Value of BTC is a term of trust. Nothing more. Mining is a waste of time and cost.
[/list]

It's bullshit. I got a 5750 back in December for $100, right now I have mined 450BTC. Already had the most of the rig, though.

[vasisualiy]

Here is my mining spreadsheet.

Assumptions: (PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CHALLENGE):

• Value of a BTC will always be related to the cost of power to produce it, since that's directly related to difficulty, which in turn is related to Bitcoin's popularity

It's bull shit. Value of BTC is a term of trust. Nothing more. Mining is a waste of time and cost.
[/list]

It's bullshit. I got a t back in December for $100, right now I have mined 450BTC. Already had the most of the rig, though.

And now, the cost from the powerstation, please

[wb3]

That is interesting. I think you have something. But shouldn't it be stated that the minimum value of the BTC will be the cost in power to produce it. But that will be declining over time sense production will become less and less. Then the minimum value will be the cost to transfer them from the wallet.dat file.

But that is not unusual, the minimum value of a coin, or paper is its intrinsic value for the user, or its intrinsic value plus cost of production for the producer.  BTW all pennies <1982 are worth 2¢ in copper. Good way to double your money.

[vasisualiy]

That is interesting. I think you have something. But shouldn't it be stated that the minimum value of the BTC will be the cost in power to produce it. But that will be declining over time sense production will become less and less. Then the minimum value will be the cost to transfer them from the wallet.dat file.

But that is not unusual, the minimum value of a coin, or paper is its intrinsic value for the user, or its intrinsic value plus cost of production for the producer.  BTW all pennies <1982 are worth 2¢ in copper. Good way to double your money.

You can charge a 10000$ for a making a hole of a 10mx10mx10m. It has costs. But any value.

[wb3]

That is interesting. I think you have something. But shouldn't it be stated that the minimum value of the BTC will be the cost in power to produce it. But that will be declining over time sense production will become less and less. Then the minimum value will be the cost to transfer them from the wallet.dat file.

But that is not unusual, the minimum value of a coin, or paper is its intrinsic value for the user, or its intrinsic value plus cost of production for the producer.  BTW all pennies <1982 are worth 2¢ in copper. Good way to double your money.

You can charge a 10000$ for a making a hole of a 10mx10mx10m. It has costs. But any value.

Funny you should mention that, I was watching a show about the Garbage Industry.

They charge your for digging the hole, they charge your for bring stuff to the hole, they charge you for putting stuff in the whole, and they charge you for covering the hole. Then they do it all over again.

It has a lot of value to them. No wonder the mafia runs the biz

[Anonymous]

ATI is going to wonder one day why the 5970 sold like hot cakes.

and why they still sell for a good price on ebay ?