Why bitcoin's exchange rate won't drop too much

[deisik]

Speculators can earn on falling asset as much as on growing, unlike investors that have only faith remaining (if ever) in such a case. Don't have illusions on this account. All speculators need is volatility...

Easier said than done. Almost everyone who have ever tried to short bitcoin were wiped out since they can never predict how high the market will go before a crash

Simple question, how do you know?

The time that market crashed is a very small part of the total bitcoin price history, means majority of the time the shorters were squeezed, unless they can call the top, but a top is only identified after a crash

That's exactly how it works for speculators. Shortening is a risky business, the less time they take such a position, the better for them...

[nodroids]

Bitcoin does HAVE REAL value, it greatly reduces the transaction costs (frictions) on all transactions, never mind the blockchain being a real innovation for macro economics. If it greatly reduces tranaction costs on just %1 of transactions (is used for just %1 of transactions) then we're talking about much higher valuations than this. It costs energy, time, transportation, etc., to send and receive money, just ask the Spanish galleons going across the oceans. Or me trying to get enough money in Mexico to buy a golf cart last week (when my wife said no to paying in BTC even though the Mexican family who was selling the golf cart had never heard of BTC they were going to accept it). It cost me $50 with banks and credit cards, 4 hours over two days and $25 in gas just to get $2700 USD out in Peso here in Mexico. I could've easily ended the transaction in 20 minutes of the Mexican family setting up a wallet and me transferring 5 or so bitcoin.

And I agree with the original posters' calculations, and very much agree with the fact that all the small-medium miners still don't see a profitable price yet, not until $1350 do we miners selling in any real volume.