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比特币前核心开发者Mike Hearn三年前的预测一一应验
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Topic: 比特币前核心开发者Mike Hearn三年前的预测一一应验 (Read 61 times)
RicardoMLu
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比特币前核心开发者Mike Hearn三年前的预测一一应验
May 11, 2018, 07:45:22 AM
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“多年以后,奥雷连诺上校站在行刑队面前,准会想起父亲带他去参观冰块的那个遥远的下午。”
时间过的很快,对于暴涨暴跌的比特币来说更是如此,从最初的一文不值到一万八千美元一枚,比特币仅仅只用了9年,而从1万8千美元跌到6千美元,时间更快,只用了4个月,下跌的那段时间正是比特币交易费最高的一段时期。
三年前的5月8号,当时还是比特币核心研发者的Mike Hearn在medium.com上面发表了一篇文章,文章的内容大致是解释比特币1MB区块大小限制被触及时会发生什么。现在看来全是对的。
Mike Hearn认为当区块被撑满时,首先会发生的是确认时间开始变长,根据当时Dave Hudson的Monte Carlo模型模拟的结果是,在交易量达到区块容量80%的时候,有一半交易大约需要20分钟才能确认,在交易量达到区块容量100%的时候,有一半交易需要等待超过6个小时。不过,Mike Hearn紧接着认为这种情况不会发生。原因是在1MB区块被100%使用的时候,真实的交易数量可能超过100%,所以产生的结果是交易被永久积压,比特币核心没有代码来处理日益增长的交易积压,交易业务只能在内存中排队,直到节点耗尽。在这一点上会发生三件事:1.节点进入交换空间时可能变得非常慢;2.当节点尝试分配内存并失败时,节点可能会崩溃;3.该节点可能会被操作系统内核杀死。
之后会发生什么?用户会注意到交易没有确认,会长时间的抱怨,因为真的很不方便,甚至会赔钱。Mike Hearn也提到说如果你很有钱,那这些都不是问题。
Mike Hearn提到了解决方案为升级代码重新运行场景,同时也认为这种做法并不是最好的,但他必须这么做,为了给比特币争取足够多的时间。在文章的最后,Mike Hearn写下了这么几句话。
“比特币最终会恢复,对比特币的极端不可靠性感到沮丧的用户会放弃并停止尝试花费BTC。许多的BTC会一直留在钱包里,节点操作员会使他们的节点自动重启,SPV钱包会找到一些值得信赖的中心化机构从中收取费用。
最重要的是,超负荷最终会消失……,因为用户会消失,积压将清除,费用会再次下降到最低限度。
所以生活会继续下去。
比特币会存活。
但它会失去重要的动力,它将成为数字货币的MySpace,忠实的用户会失去信心,而企图将比特币推向主流的企业将转向其他方面(其它的加密货币),一直以来以“让世界变得更美好的人”为动力的部分比特币开发者和推广者会离开,因为他们会认为周围的普通人永远不会用他们的产品。“
似乎是为了印证了自己预言, Mike Hearn和Gavin Andresen在提出了bitcoin XT(区块升级至8MB,每年都会递增)方案遭到其他开发者的反对和社区禁止讨论bitcoin XT后,不久便选择了离开……
所以,我不相信Mike Hearn早期的扩容想法是为了谋取一己私利,更不相信Mike Hearn的出走是因为在开发组赚不到钱。Mike Hearn这样的人应该是真心实意的想要比特币变得更好,想让比特币一直发挥马太效应,占尽先发优势,完成中本聪白皮书中的愿景,使得比特币真正能成为现实世界的支付货币。
所幸,扩容终究是没有缺席,而且BCH也即将在5月15日再次硬分叉升级,将区块大小升至32MB。一切都在向当初的想法靠拢,事实也证明了Mike Hearn和Gavin Andresen方案是正确的,扩容后的BCH在交易中不存在拥堵和手续费的问题,而且更具开放性,社区也更加有活力,一些基于BCH的有趣的应用不断被开发出来,最初的bitcoin似乎又回来了。
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比特币前核心开发者Mike Hearn三年前的预测一一应验
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