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Author Topic: Satoshi Nakamoto - 1,5 million Bitcoins - We need answers  (Read 23488 times)
fastandfurious
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August 15, 2011, 09:31:00 PM
 #1

As you can see on the fifth graph here http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ , for many months Bitcoin was very unknown to the public and because of that difficulty didn't change to the upside. If I have understood it correctly around 1,5 million Bitcoins were created from February 2009 until the end of same year. Also if I have understood it correctly very few people mined under this time period making the conclusion that Satoshi Nakamoto and a few more people have a considerable amount of Bitcoins (worth today around 16 million dollars). You could also suppose that a majority of this coins are in the hand of Satoshi Nakamoto. Today it has gone more than two years from the birth of Bitcoin, I am convinced that Nakamoto has big plans for Bitcoin and he/she/they have put considerable amount of time and effort in this interesting project.

I am talking for my self, but I think that my thoughts concern also others that are thinking alike. I want to invest a considerable amount of money and time into this project/currency/commodity/freedom. But I think that until the person(s) behind Bitcoin doesn't come forward I think that the best I can do is to reconsider if I should invest time and money into this project. Because not getting any answers makes Bitcoin to become something uncertain and vague. If Bitcoin should become worth 100-10000+ times more than it is today, and be a serious threat to the establishment and the status quo of the financial world of today, we should demand for some sincere answers to this questions.



My questions:

How many Bitcoins in total does "Nakamoto" have?

What is "Nakamotos" estimation of how many early adopters there is that have more than 200 000 bitcoins, 100 000 bitcoins and 50 000 bitcoins?

What was the purpose of creating Bitcoin?

What is your plan for the future of Bitcoin as "Nakamoto" sees it today?

What are "Nakamoto" going to do with the wealth that has been created?




Until this questions are not answered, and I am pretty sure the person/group behind this project can read this, we should really reconsider buying in until we get some answers. If this is going to get big, this questions will always hunt us until they are answered.


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August 15, 2011, 09:36:44 PM
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Mh...difficulty can't go below 1, but that doesn't mean a block every 10 min always was true.

Maybe back in 2009 hashrate was so low that even at difficulty 1 a block was created like every hour or so...
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August 15, 2011, 09:36:49 PM
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this is a very well thought out post with important questions,

because of this I feel it will never happen (serious inquiry) and most people will post garbage like "you have no right to know any of this"
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August 15, 2011, 09:41:00 PM
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Bitcoin is what it is. In my humble opinion I believe your questions are irrelevant in that it doesn't matter what the answers are.
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August 15, 2011, 09:44:35 PM
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My questions:

How many Bitcoins in total does "Nakamoto" have?

noone knows

What is "Nakamotos" estimation of how many early adopters there is that have more than 200 000 bitcoins, 100 000 bitcoins and 50 000 bitcoins?

should be a handfull imo

What was the purpose of creating Bitcoin?

this is not a good question, you already know. if you want to ask something like "did they have any hidden agenta" is the right one. noone knows thats why btc is a speculative currency.

What is your plan for the future of Bitcoin as "Nakamoto" sees it today?

be the ultimate cyber currency is the obvious answer

What are "Nakamoto" going to do with the wealth that has been created?

buy whoes in mexico? why is that important?


Until this questions are not answered, and I am pretty sure the person/group behind this project can read this, we should really reconsider buying in until we get some answers. If this is going to get big, this questions will always hunt us until they are answered.



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August 15, 2011, 09:54:19 PM
 #6

Bitcoin is what it is. In my humble opinion I believe your questions are irrelevant in that it doesn't matter what the answers are.
+1

Every day lots of members pops up in this forum, jealous that some other have more bitcoin. As being jealousy doesn't look that good, they invent some "we have to change bitcoins, so that I get more" thing. Of course it is always the fault of early adopters and satoshi. And of course, everyone know 2009/2010 that bitcoins will be explode in 2011. So of course, everyone would have mined in 2009.

Go all, mine xicoin, or whatever the scam of the day is called, we all know that it will explode in 2013!
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August 15, 2011, 09:56:55 PM
 #7

I believe your questions are irrelevant

+1
molecular
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August 15, 2011, 10:03:04 PM
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Mh...difficulty can't go below 1, but that doesn't mean a block every 10 min always was true.

Maybe back in 2009 hashrate was so low that even at difficulty 1 a block was created like every hour or so...

OPs assumption was that about 1.5 million BTC where mined at end of 2009. That's about true:

Quote

+-----------+-----------------+----------------------------+
| block_num | block_height*50 | from_unixtime(block_nTime) |
+-----------+-----------------+----------------------------+
|     32485 |         1624250 | 2009-12-31 23:51:57        |
+-----------+-----------------+----------------------------+

Block 32485 was mined 2009-12-31 23:51:57. 1,624,250 BTC existed then.

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August 15, 2011, 10:03:47 PM
 #9

On my list of concerns, my worry over the personal assets of Satoshi is just slightly more important than what I'm going to make for dinner this evening.

If it does concern you, like the other poster said, go mine XICoin, for Satoshi probably has none of them! In fact, why don't all the communists get together and create Communacoin, they can ensure nobody has more than X% above anyone else, that the supply of them increase indefinitely (making everyone richer forever), that purchases will only be for "socially beneficial purposes," and all the evil, unfair free-market jerks won't get to own any at all!

In all seriousness, it would make no sense at all for Satoshi to step forward and disclose anything about himself. It is obscenely smart for him to have disappeared and here's hoping he lives out his days in peace, wealth, and comfort, reflecting upon the incredible invention he has bestowed upon mankind.

SatoshiDICE World's most popular Bitcoin game.
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August 15, 2011, 10:09:56 PM
 #10

I bet he lost his wallet.

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August 15, 2011, 10:21:37 PM
 #11

FWIW, I mined 10,000,000 ShitCoins before I took it public.

It never caught on

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August 15, 2011, 10:24:09 PM
 #12

probally owns a supercomputer that puts out a few PetaFLOPs

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Rob Lister
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August 15, 2011, 10:28:40 PM
 #13

this is a very well thought out post with important questions,

because of this I feel it will never happen (serious inquiry) and most people will post garbage like "you have no right to know any of this"

well, he doesn't have any right to know any of that.  and what difference can it possible make?

perhaps if he could explain why he needs to know i would change my opinion that he's just fishing.
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August 15, 2011, 10:31:40 PM
 #14

I fail to see the problem here. Bitcoin was visible in plain open sight since day 1. 99% of us was just too stupid to see it and become an early adopter. Stupidity has a price, and now we have to buy coins at a much higher price. But, what else is new? In which way is this different from, say, shares in startups? Some people get a brilliant idea, work day and night for several years, then let their company go public. Sure, the founders have shitloads of shares and get rich. Is that a problem? Would you demand Sergey Brin to disclose what he plans to do with his money earned from selling Google shares? If so, go play somewhere else!
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August 15, 2011, 10:39:18 PM
 #15

I fail to see the problem here. Bitcoin was visible in plain open sight since day 1. 99% of us was just too stupid to see it and become an early adopter. Stupidity has a price, and now we have to buy coins at a much higher price.

agreed.   I first saw bitcoin in late 2009 or early 2010 when looking for exchangers of other digital currencies like pecunix and liberty reserve.   I came across bitcoin-otc and was very interested, but I didn't see that bitcoins could be used for much.  I didn't dig deep enough, and I had I might have gotten more interested and involved at the time.  I didn't start taking a hard look at it until after it broke $1 parity, and didn't get my business started until just after then $30 high.    But we are all still early adopters, imo.   2/3rd of all bitcoins are still yet to be mined and circulated, and the entire bitcoin economy market cap is still only a tiny fraction of the global economy.  

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August 15, 2011, 10:42:37 PM
 #16

this is a very well thought out post with important questions,

because of this I feel it will never happen (serious inquiry) and most people will post garbage like "you have no right to know any of this"

+1

And

I predict this thtread will not end well

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August 15, 2011, 10:46:25 PM
 #17

FWIW, Satoshi did make a point of it that he didn't start mining before everyone else had the chance to - by including a newspaper headline in the genesis block.

We were just reading the wrong lists  Tongue

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molecular
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August 15, 2011, 11:10:14 PM
 #18

I did some more analysis on "2009 coins" using bitcoin-abe (thanks a lot, John Toby!):

I looked at mining profits 2009, using block_id <= 32485 (last block mined in 2009, at 2009-12-31 23:51:57) as condition. The overall mining profit was:

Quote

mysql> select sum(txout_value/1E8) from block_tx inner join block on block.block_id = block_tx.block_id inner join tx on block_tx.tx_id = tx.tx_id inner join txin on txin.tx_id=tx.tx_
id inner join txout on txout.tx_id = tx.tx_id left join txin txin2 on txin2.txout_id = txout.txout_id left join tx tx2 on tx2.tx_id=txin2.tx_id left join block_tx block_tx2 on block_tx2.tx_id=tx2.tx_id where txin.txout_id is null and block.block_id <= 32485;
+----------------------+
| sum(txout_value/1E8) |
+----------------------+
|           1624252.87 |
+----------------------+

1,624,252.87 BTC (2.87 BTC fees)

crosscheck: 1624250 BTC / 50 BTC/block = 32485 blocks, ok

Next I was interested in wether or not these mining profits where sold or not. This is too hard to determine from the data, so I resorted to determining wether they were moved to other addresses and if so, wether the respective transaction took place in 2009 or after 2009:


Quote

mysql> select case when txin2.txin_id is null then 'not moved' else case when block_tx2.block_id <= 32485 then 'moved i
n 2009' else 'moved after 2009' end end as move_status, sum(txout_value/1E8) from block_tx inner join block on block.bl
ock_id = block_tx.block_id inner join tx on block_tx.tx_id = tx.tx_id inner join txin on txin.tx_id=tx.tx_id inner join txout on txout.tx_id = tx.tx_id left join txin txin2 on txin2.txout_id = txout.txout_id left join tx tx2 on tx2.tx_id=txin2.tx_id left join block_tx block_tx2 on block_tx2.tx_id=tx2.tx_id where txin.txout_id is null and block.block_id <= 32485 group by move_status;
+------------------+----------------------+
| move_status      | sum(txout_value/1E8) |
+------------------+----------------------+
| moved after 2009 |            294800.15 |
| moved in 2009    |            137600.13 |
| not moved        |           1191852.59 |
+------------------+----------------------+

This likely means, that the majority of the coins mined in 2009 (73%, 1,191,852 BTC) are still in possession of the original miner (he might have given the coins to someone else by giving him the private keys. It's likely, though, that the recipient would've moved the coins to new addresses because otherwise he'd have to trust the sender to not use the keys).

Therefore I think we can safely assume that the people that mined the early coins in 2009 (likely "Satoshi Nakamoto and some friends") did not sell or otherwise give away the majority of these coins. The coins that were moved (27%) might also well be still in their possession. We can therefore state: Satoshi and friends have at miminum 1.2 Million BTC still at their disposal.

EDIT: this puts a lower bound to the answer of question 1: "How many Bitcoins in total does "Nakamoto" have?" (assuming "Nakamoto" means "Satoshi and friends"). Answer: at least 1.2 Million.

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August 15, 2011, 11:13:56 PM
 #19

considering his genius design and superb execution, Satoshi deserves at least 3 million btc

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August 15, 2011, 11:19:52 PM
 #20

probally owns a supercomputer that puts out a few PetaFLOPs

I'm pretty sure he doesn't. When you own >5% of any given currency, you don't need more. Also: Satoshi seems to be a sensible guy and one that knows when to retreat and let others take over. He's done his share well and got rewarded. Let's hope he changed the world with this.

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