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Trader Steve (OP)
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August 16, 2011, 06:26:54 PM |
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Here's just a fun, back-of-the-envelope, statistic: 50 new bitcoins enter the total supply every ten minutes. This is 300 per hour or 7,200 per day. The current USD price of bitcoin is around $11. That's $79,200 of new supply that is created and absorbed every day. This means that when the price of bitcion is above $11 then more than $79,200 of new money is flowing into bitcoin. When the price drops less than $11 then the amount of new money entering bitcoin is less than $79,200 per day. Pretty impressive. Bitcoin is gaining fans at the rate of $79,200 per day or $2,376,000 per month at the current rate. So don't despair when you see the price stay flat for an extended period of time.  |
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"Governments are good at cutting off the heads of a centrally
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to be holding their own." -- Satoshi
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Gabi
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If you want to walk on water, get out of the boat
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August 16, 2011, 06:28:54 PM |
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50 new bitcoins enter the total supply every ten minutes. You are implying every miner sell their BTC as soon as they mine them This is of course false, so far i have sold 0 BTC for example. |
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evoorhees
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Democracy is the original 51% attack
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August 16, 2011, 06:32:14 PM |
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It means there is DEMAND for Bitcoin at that rate of $79k per day. If a miner keeps his coin, it means his demand prevented him from selling it. So it's a little misleading to say $79k of new money is coming to Bitcoin every day, but it is fair to say that demand grows by that amount each day.
I wonder what the -actual- statistic is for the percent of newly mined coins that are sold? 10%? 50%? 95%? I have no idea! It'd be very interesting to know.
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Trader Steve (OP)
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August 16, 2011, 06:33:24 PM |
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50 new bitcoins enter the total supply every ten minutes. You are implying every miner sell their BTC as soon as they mine them This is of course false, so far i have sold 0 BTC for example. When you don't sell them you are signaling to the market that you value them more than the $11 - hence you are buying them. |
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BTC_Junkie
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August 16, 2011, 06:39:58 PM |
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When you don't sell them you are signaling to the market that you value them more than the $11 - hence you are buying them.
No, buying is buying ... not selling is not selling. If someone gives me an apple that they grew, I didn't buy it. |
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Piper67
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August 16, 2011, 06:43:30 PM |
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When you don't sell them you are signaling to the market that you value them more than the $11 - hence you are buying them.
No, buying is buying ... not selling is not selling. If someone gives me an apple that they grew, I didn't buy it. But if that same apple would be sold at the market for 2 dollars, and you could only get apples at the market, that person can either give you the apple or two dollars. Same same. |
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Gabi
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If you want to walk on water, get out of the boat
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August 16, 2011, 06:45:15 PM |
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50 new bitcoins enter the total supply every ten minutes. You are implying every miner sell their BTC as soon as they mine them This is of course false, so far i have sold 0 BTC for example. When you don't sell them you are signaling to the market that you value them more than the $11 - hence you are buying them. Well theoretically yes, but without the hassle to move euros on an exchange  |
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Trader Steve (OP)
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August 16, 2011, 06:47:07 PM |
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50 new bitcoins enter the total supply every ten minutes. You are implying every miner sell their BTC as soon as they mine them This is of course false, so far i have sold 0 BTC for example. When you don't sell them you are signaling to the market that you value them more than the $11 - hence you are buying them. Well theoretically yes, but without the hassle to move euros on an exchange Yes, and the new buyers have to buy from somebody else because they cannot buy from you. |
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Trader Steve (OP)
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August 16, 2011, 06:51:58 PM |
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50 new bitcoins enter the total supply every ten minutes. You are implying every miner sell their BTC as soon as they mine them This is of course false, so far i have sold 0 BTC for example. When you don't sell them you are signaling to the market that you value them more than the $11 - hence you are buying them. Further clarification: when you refuse to sell your newly-mined coins you have essentially bought them with your expended resources and investment in the mining process. When you refuse to sell you are valuing the product of your efforts and resources more than the current exchange rate. |
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BTC_Junkie
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August 16, 2011, 06:52:25 PM |
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When you don't sell them you are signaling to the market that you value them more than the $11 - hence you are buying them.
No, buying is buying ... not selling is not selling. If someone gives me an apple that they grew, I didn't buy it. But if that same apple would be sold at the market for 2 dollars, and you could only get apples at the market, that person can either give you the apple or two dollars. Same same. Its not the same, because one affects the market price and one doesn't. If I hypothetically mined 1,000,000 BTC today, the market cap would increase by ~$11,000,000 but that does not mean $11,000,000 was absorbed. If I tried to sell it on MtGox I would destroy the market. |
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Trader Steve (OP)
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August 16, 2011, 06:55:58 PM |
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When you don't sell them you are signaling to the market that you value them more than the $11 - hence you are buying them.
No, buying is buying ... not selling is not selling. If someone gives me an apple that they grew, I didn't buy it. But if that same apple would be sold at the market for 2 dollars, and you could only get apples at the market, that person can either give you the apple or two dollars. Same same. Its not the same, because one affects the market price and one doesn't. If I hypothetically mined 1,000,000 BTC today, the market cap would increase by ~$11,000,000 but that does not mean $11,000,000 was absorbed. If I tried to sell it on MtGox I would destroy the market. See my clarification at post #9 above. You can't "hypothetically mine" bitcoin. It takes real resources that cost time, money and effort. When you invest these resources you are buying the product when you choose not to sell it. |
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Cryptoman
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August 16, 2011, 06:59:53 PM |
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I wonder what the -actual- statistic is for the percent of newly mined coins that are sold? 10%? 50%? 95%? I have no idea! It'd be very interesting to know.
Should we make a poll? I'd be interested to know as well. Personally, I've kept 50% and sold the other 50% at more-or-less the prevailing market price. |
"A small body of determined spirits fired by an unquenchable faith in their mission can alter the course of history." --Gandhi
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BTC_Junkie
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August 16, 2011, 07:01:34 PM |
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Its not the same, because one affects the market price and one doesn't.
If I hypothetically mined 1,000,000 BTC today, the market cap would increase by ~$11,000,000 but that does not mean $11,000,000 was absorbed. If I tried to sell it on MtGox I would destroy the market.
See my clarification at post #9 above. You can't "hypothetically mine" bitcoin. It takes real resources that cost time, money and effort. When you invest these resources you are buying the product when you choose not to sell it. I was using that as an example because its harder to see the effect of not selling when its 1 btc vs a much larger number. If you had not "invested the resources" it would still have come into existence, simply for someone else. That is different than actively buying and selling on the open market. |
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Trader Steve (OP)
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August 16, 2011, 07:09:09 PM |
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Its not the same, because one affects the market price and one doesn't.
If I hypothetically mined 1,000,000 BTC today, the market cap would increase by ~$11,000,000 but that does not mean $11,000,000 was absorbed. If I tried to sell it on MtGox I would destroy the market.
See my clarification at post #9 above. You can't "hypothetically mine" bitcoin. It takes real resources that cost time, money and effort. When you invest these resources you are buying the product when you choose not to sell it. I was using that as an example because its harder to see the effect of not selling when its 1 btc vs a much larger number. If you had not "invested the resources" it would still have come into existence, simply for someone else. That is different than actively buying and selling on the open market. That "someone else" also has to invest the resources, time, money and effort in the mining process. You can't get something for nothing. If you stop mining it is because you don't value the expected return on investment. Again, when you mine and hold you are buying the bitcoin because you value it more than the prevailing exchange rate. If you didn't think the current or projected exchange rate would be profitable then you would simply stop mining. |
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BTC_Junkie
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August 16, 2011, 07:14:24 PM |
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That "someone else" also has to invest the resources, time, money and effort in the mining process. You can't get something for nothing. If you stop mining it is because you don't value the expected return on investment. Again, when you mine and hold you are buying the bitcoin because you value it more than the prevailing exchange rate. If you didn't think the current or projected exchange rate would be profitable then you would simply stop mining.
There's a fundamental difference between holding something, buying and selling that I feel is being lost here. |
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Trader Steve (OP)
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August 16, 2011, 07:25:32 PM |
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That "someone else" also has to invest the resources, time, money and effort in the mining process. You can't get something for nothing. If you stop mining it is because you don't value the expected return on investment. Again, when you mine and hold you are buying the bitcoin because you value it more than the prevailing exchange rate. If you didn't think the current or projected exchange rate would be profitable then you would simply stop mining.
There's a fundamental difference between holding something, buying and selling that I feel is being lost here. If you are a miner you are not just "holding" the bitcoin you generate. You are actually purchasing them with your time, money, effort and resources. |
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Ten98
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August 16, 2011, 07:27:28 PM |
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This is the stupidest thread I read all day. Congrats.
How many coins are being mined every day is totally irrelevant, it's about how many are being bought and sold on the exchanges.
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Trader Steve (OP)
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August 16, 2011, 07:31:27 PM |
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This is the stupidest thread I read all day. Congrats.
How many coins are being mined every day is totally irrelevant, it's about how many are being bought and sold on the exchanges.
The exchanges are not the market - they are only a small part of the market. |
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BTC_Junkie
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August 16, 2011, 07:36:02 PM |
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This is the stupidest thread I read all day. Congrats.
How many coins are being mined every day is totally irrelevant, it's about how many are being bought and sold on the exchanges.
Agreed, i'm out. |
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Trader Steve (OP)
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August 16, 2011, 08:11:03 PM |
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Here's another statistic:
If the total supply of bitcoin stopped today at 7,000,000 (round number used for simplification) and a net $79,200 of new money continued to flow into bitcoin every day it would bid up the price at the rate of 37.5% ($79,200 x 365 days = $28,908,000/year divided by 7,000,000 BTC = $4.13 divided by $11)
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