The spec money in China has exited

[sgbett]

In pool playing parlance they call it being hustled.

In poker, if you don't know who the fish at the table is...

etc etc

Let's avoid making Btc price drops a personal matter. It's a market with a diverse range of views.

Sorry for not being clear, I was anthropomorphising nations through their government policies, not suggesting that any individuals are the suckers.

[sgbett]

My gut is, China is f*cking with everyone and purposely driving the price down so that day-traders and speculators get out, so that they can turn around and scoop up BTC for ridiculous low amounts and then drive the price back up.

You mean China exchange or China government ?

Chinese Govt + Banks + Big Business.

Don't trust the Chinese. They aren't stupid. They are great at deception and manipulation.

The volatility over the past few days is certainly uncomfortable but I can't see that this is a trust issue. This is the Chinese government shutting down a massive loophole in its financial system.

If that is the case I don't understand why they haven't outlawed it entirely? Or do you think that is still to come?

[Lloydie]

My gut is, China is f*cking with everyone and purposely driving the price down so that day-traders and speculators get out, so that they can turn around and scoop up BTC for ridiculous low amounts and then drive the price back up.

You mean China exchange or China government ?

Chinese Govt + Banks + Big Business.

Don't trust the Chinese. They aren't stupid. They are great at deception and manipulation.

The volatility over the past few days is certainly uncomfortable but I can't see that this is a trust issue. This is the Chinese government shutting down a massive loophole in its financial system.

If that is the case I don't understand why they haven't outlawed it entirely? Or do you think that is still to come?

Given that Btc china sits in the shanghai free trading zone, it should be protected as if it was an exchange in HK or Macau. Therefore, it cannot be made illegal else the free trading zone concept is dead.

However, the Chinese government is absolutely shutting down all RMB flows out of china via btcs by banning third party processors and bank to bank transfers.

I suspect in future, Chinese people wanting btcs must purchase it via cash deposits in HK, Macau and maybe the shanghai free trading zone. Plus person to person local btcs of course.

Eventually, an Argentina scenario should emerge. Btcs in china should trade higher than ROW. Just not right now as there is still some selling pressure.

[spiderbrain]

China is not an easy economy for the average Joe to get fiat in and out off.

And yet you think they will want to get rid of their bitcoins, which makes it incredibly easy to move one's money around?

[spiderbrain]

'these carrots look lovely - will you accept bitcoin? - yes I will'

love it.

[Lloydie]

Shouldn't be long now before China BTC trades at a premium to the other exchanges.   All the early speculators are either out or buying back in.  

I believe people trying to shift RMBs out of China will be looking for BTCs within China.  This should be the Argentina scenario replayed but on a bigger scale.

[HairyMaclairy]

I see three green candles so in my book it looks like an uptrend is coming, hope it pulls through.

I want to shout this again "TO DA MOOOOOOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Yeah, it may bounce a little higher....for now, but it will be temporary.

China is clearly winding up any open dealing of Bitcoins. BTC China was the last time I checked responsible for 44% of the entire Bitcoin trade volume. There are still lots of Bitcoins in China and these people need to cash out.

Nothing could be more clear regarding Bitcoins near term future and could well be remembered as a near death experience.

"TO DA FKN BASEMENT!!!!!!!!"

I honestly can't see why Btc china cannot restart in HK or Macau? Anybody want to chime in with some inside info?

Because it doesn't help mainlanders.  Hong Kong and Macau are basically foreign countries (you need a type of passport to visit them) and you cannot freely transfer fiat to them.

[R2Pleasent]

My gut is, China is f*cking with everyone and purposely driving the price down so that day-traders and speculators get out, so that they can turn around and scoop up BTC for ridiculous low amounts and then drive the price back up.

You mean China exchange or China government ?

Chinese Govt + Banks + Big Business.

Don't trust the Chinese. They aren't stupid. They are great at deception and manipulation.

The volatility over the past few days is certainly uncomfortable but I can't see that this is a trust issue. This is the Chinese government shutting down a massive loophole in its financial system.

If that is the case I don't understand why they haven't outlawed it entirely? Or do you think that is still to come?

Given that Btc china sits in the shanghai free trading zone, it should be protected as if it was an exchange in HK or Macau. Therefore, it cannot be made illegal else the free trading zone concept is dead.

However, the Chinese government is absolutely shutting down all RMB flows out of china via btcs by banning third party processors and bank to bank transfers.

I suspect in future, Chinese people wanting btcs must purchase it via cash deposits in HK, Macau and maybe the shanghai free trading zone. Plus person to person local btcs of course.

Eventually, an Argentina scenario should emerge. Btcs in china should trade higher than ROW. Just not right now as there is still some selling pressure.

Soon, withdrawals will be removed as well.  If BTC China remains open, but has no withdrawals / deposits, will anybody trade on it?

[Lloydie]

I see three green candles so in my book it looks like an uptrend is coming, hope it pulls through.

I want to shout this again "TO DA MOOOOOOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Yeah, it may bounce a little higher....for now, but it will be temporary.

China is clearly winding up any open dealing of Bitcoins. BTC China was the last time I checked responsible for 44% of the entire Bitcoin trade volume. There are still lots of Bitcoins in China and these people need to cash out.

Nothing could be more clear regarding Bitcoins near term future and could well be remembered as a near death experience.

"TO DA FKN BASEMENT!!!!!!!!"

I honestly can't see why Btc china cannot restart in HK or Macau? Anybody want to chime in with some inside info?

Because it doesn't help mainlanders.  Hong Kong and Macau are basically foreign countries (you need a type of passport to visit them) and you cannot freely transfer fiat to them.

Last I checked, gambling revenue in Macau was still rising.  Also, I see plenty of rich Chinese hanging around HK and Singapore.

[Lloydie]

My gut is, China is f*cking with everyone and purposely driving the price down so that day-traders and speculators get out, so that they can turn around and scoop up BTC for ridiculous low amounts and then drive the price back up.

You mean China exchange or China government ?

Chinese Govt + Banks + Big Business.

Don't trust the Chinese. They aren't stupid. They are great at deception and manipulation.

The volatility over the past few days is certainly uncomfortable but I can't see that this is a trust issue. This is the Chinese government shutting down a massive loophole in its financial system.

If that is the case I don't understand why they haven't outlawed it entirely? Or do you think that is still to come?

Given that Btc china sits in the shanghai free trading zone, it should be protected as if it was an exchange in HK or Macau. Therefore, it cannot be made illegal else the free trading zone concept is dead.

However, the Chinese government is absolutely shutting down all RMB flows out of china via btcs by banning third party processors and bank to bank transfers.

I suspect in future, Chinese people wanting btcs must purchase it via cash deposits in HK, Macau and maybe the shanghai free trading zone. Plus person to person local btcs of course.

Eventually, an Argentina scenario should emerge. Btcs in china should trade higher than ROW. Just not right now as there is still some selling pressure.

Soon, withdrawals will be removed as well.  If BTC China remains open, but has no withdrawals / deposits, will anybody trade on it?

I see at least two possible outcomes (and there are many more I'm sure):

1. Cash transactions with BTC China directly in Shanghai, which means BTC China might have to setup a network of branches in the big cities, or do a deal with someone to setup branch networks.
2. Decentralised P2P or B2B exchanges being developed.

[HairyMaclairy]

I see three green candles so in my book it looks like an uptrend is coming, hope it pulls through.

I want to shout this again "TO DA MOOOOOOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Yeah, it may bounce a little higher....for now, but it will be temporary.

China is clearly winding up any open dealing of Bitcoins. BTC China was the last time I checked responsible for 44% of the entire Bitcoin trade volume. There are still lots of Bitcoins in China and these people need to cash out.

Nothing could be more clear regarding Bitcoins near term future and could well be remembered as a near death experience.

"TO DA FKN BASEMENT!!!!!!!!"

I honestly can't see why Btc china cannot restart in HK or Macau? Anybody want to chime in with some inside info?

Because it doesn't help mainlanders.  Hong Kong and Macau are basically foreign countries (you need a type of passport to visit them) and you cannot freely transfer fiat to them.

Last I checked, gambling revenue in Macau was still rising.  Also, I see plenty of rich Chinese hanging around HK and Singapore.

Sure but the rich Chinese in HK and Singapore dont need BTCC.  They already have access to international markets.  BTCC gives access to the middle class (dont get me wrong - there is no shortage of whales on there but I do wonder how many of the whales are actually Westerners in disguise).  

[HairyMaclairy]

I see at least two possible outcomes (and there are many more I'm sure):

1. Cash transactions with BTC China directly in Shanghai, which means BTC China might have to setup a network of branches in the big cities, or do a deal with someone to setup branch networks.
2. Decentralised P2P or B2B exchanges being developed.

I cannot get my head around how a decentralised exchange would work - you still need to interact with fiat at some point. (And no, localbitcoins is not an exchange).  The Ripple trust model just looks a shambles to me.

[Lloydie]

Sure but the rich Chinese in HK and Singapore dont need BTCC.  They already have access to international markets.  BTCC gives access to the middle class (dont get me wrong - there is no shortage of whales on there but I do wonder how many of the whales are actually Westerners in disguise).  

This is a good point.  But my point is that the money between China and these trading zones can be quite porous.  But you're right, middle class access will be hammered, which is why I think BTCs in China will eventually trade at a premium relative to ROW.

[rampantparanoia]

Soon, withdrawals will be removed as well.  If BTC China remains open, but has no withdrawals / deposits, will anybody trade on it?

Two Goxii in the east?


Holy Batman.

[Lloydie]

I see at least two possible outcomes (and there are many more I'm sure):

1. Cash transactions with BTC China directly in Shanghai, which means BTC China might have to setup a network of branches in the big cities, or do a deal with someone to setup branch networks.
2. Decentralised P2P or B2B exchanges being developed.

I cannot get my head around how a decentralised exchange would work - you still need to interact with fiat at some point. (And no, localbitcoins is not an exchange).  The Ripple trust model just looks a shambles to me.

Roughly (and I might be explaining something you already know): you'll have a third party escrow type service who sits as a mediator.  The contract is done online. The fiat transaction is done via bank to bank wire at minimal cost.  Evidence of transfer is provided to third party, who releases BTCs to party providing evidence.  

Yes, it will add to expense.  But over time, reputations will be built.  Kind of like a credit history.

[HairyMaclairy]

I see at least two possible outcomes (and there are many more I'm sure):

1. Cash transactions with BTC China directly in Shanghai, which means BTC China might have to setup a network of branches in the big cities, or do a deal with someone to setup branch networks.
2. Decentralised P2P or B2B exchanges being developed.

I cannot get my head around how a decentralised exchange would work - you still need to interact with fiat at some point. (And no, localbitcoins is not an exchange).  The Ripple trust model just looks a shambles to me.

Roughly (and I might be explaining something you already know): you'll have a third party escrow type service who sits as a mediator.  The contract is done online. The fiat transaction is done via bank to bank wire at minimal cost.  Evidence of transfer is provided to third party, who releases BTCs to party providing evidence.  

Yes, it will add to expense.  But over time, reputations will be built.  Kind of like a credit history.

The oracle / escrow agent only can only block the bitcoin transaction (if it is a double public key transaction).  They can't block the flow of fiat funds.   So the escrow agent provides nil protection to the person sending the fiat.  Unless I am missing something.

[Lloydie]

I see at least two possible outcomes (and there are many more I'm sure):

1. Cash transactions with BTC China directly in Shanghai, which means BTC China might have to setup a network of branches in the big cities, or do a deal with someone to setup branch networks.
2. Decentralised P2P or B2B exchanges being developed.

I cannot get my head around how a decentralised exchange would work - you still need to interact with fiat at some point. (And no, localbitcoins is not an exchange).  The Ripple trust model just looks a shambles to me.

Roughly (and I might be explaining something you already know): you'll have a third party escrow type service who sits as a mediator.  The contract is done online. The fiat transaction is done via bank to bank wire at minimal cost.  Evidence of transfer is provided to third party, who releases BTCs to party providing evidence.  

Yes, it will add to expense.  But over time, reputations will be built.  Kind of like a credit history.

The oracle / escrow agent only can only block the bitcoin transaction (if it is a double public key transaction).  They can't block the flow of fiat funds.   So the escrow agent provides nil protection to the person sending the fiat.  Unless I am missing something.

Person sending fiat provides irrefutable evidence that fiat was transferred. Btc then gets released to them.

There are issues if the fiat sent is fraudulent and gets clawed back.

[HairyMaclairy]

Ok understand. Doesn't help avoid capital controls though. If you can't wire from mainland China to Hong Long due to capital controls that model you just described doesn't help.  It only works for cross border where international wire transfers are allowed.