New Year Predictions

[kireinaha]

I think we're going to see some wild swings next year for Bitcoin. I would give a good chance of reaching another ATH in Q1 or Q2 of 2014, but what worries me the most (and the reason I'm long term bearish) is the prospect of the US government cracking down. The way I see it, it's just a matter of time before US regulators move in a fashion similar to China and prohibit banks and financial institutions from depositing and withdrawing money to/from Bitcoin exchanges, which will likely drive prices down to the double digits again.

They did it with online poker (citing money laundering concerns) so I really see no reason why they wouldn't do the same with Bitcoin if it continues to grow. And just like with poker, when it happens, it will likely be sudden and take many by surprise. I only wonder if they would make an exceptions for Coinbase, since it's US based.

Will such heavy action happen in 2014? Maybe not, but I do expect 2014 to be the year that world governments begin taking some form of action against the network, so we will likely see some highs and lows the likes of which will genuinely shock many in the community.

[Wilhelm]

Atleast you Americans can sue your government if they do that

Do you guy have internet censorship?

[kireinaha]

Atleast you Americans can sue your government if they do that

Do you guy have internet censorship?

If the poker players couldn't successfully sue the Justice Department, than I have little hope for bitcoiners.

Americans don't have a problem with Internet censorship (there is no Great Firewall ala China) but we do have ridiculously tight banking regulations and an extremely powerful internal revenue service. That great socialism experiment needs to be funded somehow, which is why the US will not allow people to hide their money away on poker sites or in cryptocurrencies.

[Wilhelm]

Atleast you Americans can sue your government if they do that

Do you guy have internet censorship?

If the poker players couldn't successfully sue the Justice Department, than I have little hope for bitcoiners.

Americans don't have a problem with Internet censorship (there is no Great Firewall ala China) but we do have ridiculously tight banking regulations and an extremely powerful internal revenue service. That great socialism experiment needs to be funded somehow, which is why the US will not allow people to hide their money away on poker sites or in cryptocurrencies.

If I look at the debtclock of the US then I can understand those regulations because the dollar is in bad shape. Quantative easing by printing more money is no solution.
Socialism costs money but can save money aswell since your helping people so they don't get sick and can work. Socialsm can go to far, making any effort to earn money a waste of time. Socialism needs balance. But that's another discussion actually .

Since the US doesn't have a great firewall they will have a hard time claiming freedom and invoking censorship.
In my country (The Netherlands) our government will take at least 8 years to take some action

Online poker is gambling and is proven addictive and you will always lose long-term so easy to forbid.
Bitcoin is either money, possession or a stock. It's hard to forbid this without going "North Korea" on your people.

[jamesc760]

The Feds banned online gambling UNDER pressure from domestic gambling industry (Las Vegas, Atlantic City and others). Almost nothing to do with money laundering. They are talking about legalizing it again, UNDER pressure from online gambling concerns. I wish they would just grow a backbone and say F*CK Y*U to all lobbyists, but you and I know that's never gonna happen.

[kireinaha]

The Feds banned online gambling UNDER pressure from domestic gambling industry (Las Vegas, Atlantic City and others). Almost nothing to do with money laundering. They are talking about legalizing it again, UNDER pressure from online gambling concerns. I wish they would just grow a backbone and say F*CK Y*U to all lobbyists, but you and I know that's never gonna happen.

Yes, I have no doubt that part of the crackdown can be attributed to gambling lobbyists, but nonetheless, the Justice Department did cite "the wire act" I believe which was drafted to fight money laundering, so even if the circumstances are not the exact same here with bitcoin, I think everyone in the community (not only Americans) should be concerned about the potential for the shoe to drop on this.

I know that they do have poker sites again now for residents of Nevada and New Jersey, but they're a far cry from established sites like Poker Stars, etc.

[T.Stuart]

I honestly think Bitcoin is actually attractive to the US government, European governments and other democratic governments because:

1. If you get the exchanges and bitcoin businesses to cooperate then you have an easy to follow, infallible record of every single transaction with names and whatever accumulated kyc docs  attached.

2. Then you can tax everybody and nobody can hide.