Fear will replace greed (Single digit Bitcoins in 2014).

[samsam]

Too many people with fiat waiting to scoop up cheap coins. Only way it will reach single digits is if there is a serious crackdown on btc. If it reaches single digits there is a good reason for it and it is unlikely to rise up again.

People are playing the holding game now; though after the China got out of the game I have a hard time seeing how the price can go back to $1000.

Anyone claiming bitcoin will reach $10 again is trolling.

However, pretending that bitcoins won't get cheaper in the coming days is also tolling. The Chinese haven't finished dumping their coins. BTC could easily get into the $300-$400 range for a while if the Chinese completely liquidate their BTC holdings.

[NorbyTheGeek]

After looking at your argument, it appears to be mostly assumption and presumption.

Bitcoin is going up in price because people believe it will be used as a medium of exchange and store of value. If they realise this wont happen it will collapse in price. So lets look at these two aspects.

1) Medium of exchange.

Bitcoin is only a medium of exchange when merchants accept it and hold onto it. Right now merchants are dumping bitcoin for dollars, so its not being used as a medium of exchange. This btw. also throws the transaction cost benefit argument right out of the window (spread).

Are you a merchant accepting bitcoin?  If so, you can speak to your own experience, but you cannot assume that all merchants are instantly dumping bitcoin for fiat.  While I am not a merchant, I do use my bitcoin income to purchase items, rather than just exchanging them for fiat.

Now will merchants ever accept bitcoin and hold onto them?
No.

Why?

a) Governments have already effectively made it impossible for people to use bitcoin as a medium of exchange, as they expect taxes to be paid on bitcoin gains. Thus it cant function as a medium of exchange (same goes for gold btw.). Unless Government loses its control on its money monopoly this law wont be altered.

Governments expect taxes on all income.  Why would bitcoin be different?  Are you saying that USD can't function as a medium of exchange because governments expect taxes to be paid when you gain USD?

b) Governments will prohibt merchants from accepting bitcoins. Again: They will never give up their monoply on money.

You can't overgeneralize.  Some governments may.  Other governments have already accepted bitcoin as a good idea.

2) Store of Value

After people realize that merchants are not adopting bitcoin and that it is not used as a medium of exchange, it will collapse in price. Will anybody store significant wealth in Bitcoin after this spectacular collapse? Not likely.

Your earlier arguments already have flaws, so this conclusion is not valid.

Also Bitcoin is a technology, that can be outcompeted by other altcoins. Your wallet can be hacked. The average citizen cant judge if the code can or can not be hacked and thus more bitcoins created. If you want to store wealth over a long period of time investing in a technology is not the best and easiest option. Also Bitcoin is not useful or wanted. If you ask a Bitcoiner what can I do with it they will say: dump it on the next guy it will go up in price! Gold and Silver where always wanted (jewlery and nowadays industry) and thats why they became MONEY in the first place! They have unique properties and everybody love to hold them in their hand. This will always be the case ensuring significant value and acceptance. Nothing like this can be said for bitcoins. Thus I dont believe bitcoin will function as a store of value in any significant way.

This paragraph reads like a combination of FUD combined with wild generalized assumptions.

I'm not saying you're wrong about the exchange rate of bitcoin dropping.  But your arguments are flawed.

I do wonder what your motivation is for these posts.  Why come to a Bitcoin forum and try to spread a message that we're all doomed?  Unless you're just trying to stir up an argument.  At that, my friend, is the definition of a troll.

[porc]

After looking at your argument, it appears to be mostly assumption and presumption.

Bitcoin is going up in price because people believe it will be used as a medium of exchange and store of value. If they realise this wont happen it will collapse in price. So lets look at these two aspects.

1) Medium of exchange.

Bitcoin is only a medium of exchange when merchants accept it and hold onto it. Right now merchants are dumping bitcoin for dollars, so its not being used as a medium of exchange. This btw. also throws the transaction cost benefit argument right out of the window (spread).

Are you a merchant accepting bitcoin?  If so, you can speak to your own experience, but you cannot assume that all merchants are instantly dumping bitcoin for fiat.  While I am not a merchant, I do use my bitcoin income to purchase items, rather than just exchanging them for fiat.

Now will merchants ever accept bitcoin and hold onto them?
No.

Why?

a) Governments have already effectively made it impossible for people to use bitcoin as a medium of exchange, as they expect taxes to be paid on bitcoin gains. Thus it cant function as a medium of exchange (same goes for gold btw.). Unless Government loses its control on its money monopoly this law wont be altered.

Governments expect taxes on all income.  Why would bitcoin be different?  Are you saying that USD can't function as a medium of exchange because governments expect taxes to be paid when you gain USD?

b) Governments will prohibt merchants from accepting bitcoins. Again: They will never give up their monoply on money.

You can't overgeneralize.  Some governments may.  Other governments have already accepted bitcoin as a good idea.

2) Store of Value

After people realize that merchants are not adopting bitcoin and that it is not used as a medium of exchange, it will collapse in price. Will anybody store significant wealth in Bitcoin after this spectacular collapse? Not likely.

Your earlier arguments already have flaws, so this conclusion is not valid.

Also Bitcoin is a technology, that can be outcompeted by other altcoins. Your wallet can be hacked. The average citizen cant judge if the code can or can not be hacked and thus more bitcoins created. If you want to store wealth over a long period of time investing in a technology is not the best and easiest option. Also Bitcoin is not useful or wanted. If you ask a Bitcoiner what can I do with it they will say: dump it on the next guy it will go up in price! Gold and Silver where always wanted (jewlery and nowadays industry) and thats why they became MONEY in the first place! They have unique properties and everybody love to hold them in their hand. This will always be the case ensuring significant value and acceptance. Nothing like this can be said for bitcoins. Thus I dont believe bitcoin will function as a store of value in any significant way.

This paragraph reads like a combination of FUD combined with wild generalized assumptions.

I'm not saying you're wrong about the exchange rate of bitcoin dropping.  But your arguments are flawed.

I do wonder what your motivation is for these posts.  Why come to a Bitcoin forum and try to spread a message that we're all doomed?  Unless you're just trying to stir up an argument.  At that, my friend, is the definition of a troll.

Try to understand my arguments before posting. You have not grasped any arguments under 1). The Arguments under 2) are summarized more clearly in the second link (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361037.msg3926046#msg3926046) which you ignored. It is laughable that you call my "earlier arguments flawed", as you did not understand them in the first place.

[porc]

Bitcoin below 10 dollars in 2014.

Oh prophet, here is your path to great riches then: http://bitbet.us/bet/672/btc-will-hit-1000-without-dropping-to-100/

Yeah, I know it is unfair if you don't believe in the BTC future. Here's a fairer deal - pick a trusted community member, escrow him any amount of BTC you want, and I will send him the same amount of fiat at the current rate. In case bitcoin reaches $10 in 2014, you get my fiat. I get your BTC otherwise. Deal?

Your topic would have much more weight than a fart in the water that it is now. You can show you really believe what you type here.

Another Hero member, shaming posters who disagree with bitcoin. If somebody is posting bullish price projections you applaud from the sidelines. So transparent.

[piramida]

Another Hero member, shaming posters who disagree with bitcoin. If somebody is posting bullish price projections you applaud from the sidelines. So transparent.

No shaming, it seems logical when people believe in what they are saying and can back it up. You are stating certain bold predictions about bitcoin price, which seem outrageous at the moment, but you have nothing to back it up, therefore trolling? We need to establish that

You see, while it might seem to you that your position is somehow fresh or original, we here witness trolls going back to 2011 who declare bitcoin as dead just because they can't understand the idea. None so far was ready to back it up with something substantial, though. Needless to say, none was right so far, too.

[porc]

Another Hero member, shaming posters who disagree with bitcoin. If somebody is posting bullish price projections you applaud from the sidelines. So transparent.

No shaming, it seems logical when people believe in what they are saying and can back it up. You are stating certain bold predictions about bitcoin price, which seem outrageous at the moment, but you have nothing to back it up, therefore trolling? We need to establish that

You see, while it might seem to you that your position is somehow fresh or original, we here witness trolls going back to 2011 who declare bitcoin as dead just because they can't understand the idea. None so far was ready to back it up with something substantial, though. Needless to say, none was right so far, too.

We will see who is right. My price prediction (below 10 dollars) is only consequential, as I dont believe Bitcoin will work. I have backed up my statements with reasoning (provided in the two links above). You might believe that my arguments are not substantial, however that is only your viewpoint. People who were invested in the housing bubble or the Nasdaq stock market bubble, also thought that there were no substantial counter arguments. Otherwise they would have divested.

You do engage in shaming tactics, as you immediately brand mark bears as trolls and state that I dont back up my statements, even though I have provided 2 links with detailed reasoning (and you can find even more if you browse my post history). This attack line is something you reserve for bears.

In this thread I have described a switch in mentality which I anticipate will take place in future. It is a speculation thread. Detailed back up for my position is provided in the economics threads (and these are easily identifiable via the post history). Thus the following statement ("Your topic would have much more weight than a fart in the water that it is now.") is a a shaming tactic.

Even more absurd is the previous poster, who criticizes my arguments from his high horse, while not even grasping their content!  

[Paladin69]

The amount of people interested in Bitcoin combined with the supply will not allow BTC to drop to single digits ever again.  Or double digits IMO.  I would buy so many if it did, just like everyone else would.

The law of supply and demand can't be beaten.

[piramida]

You might believe that my arguments are not substantial, however that is only your viewpoint. People who were invested in the housing bubble or the Nasdaq stock market bubble, also thought that there were no substantial counter arguments. Otherwise they would have divested.

I didn't even find an argument, some description of future bitcoin sentiment decline and an outrageous price prediction - pretty good summary of your first post. Posts of so little substance are usually posted to start a flame. Also, numerous references to "read my posts history", this is neither polite nor would anyone really care enough.

Read my book if you want to know why.

[MatTheCat]

The amount of people interested in Bitcoin combined with the supply will not allow BTC to drop to single digits ever again.  Or double digits IMO.  I would buy so many if it did, just like everyone else would.

The law of supply and demand can't be beaten.

If you told me two weeks ago, $600 dollar Bitcoin, I would have snapped your hand off.

Now that I can get $600 dollar Bitcoin, I aint buying.

See how easily the psychology of price shifts.

[gizmoh]

Let me just say this :

Past Performance is not indicative of future performance.

HODLers , Good luck 

[Loki8]

The amount of people interested in Bitcoin combined with the supply will not allow BTC to drop to single digits ever again.  Or double digits IMO.  I would buy so many if it did, just like everyone else would.

The law of supply and demand can't be beaten.

Most of people don't want to buy btc to play poker or satoshidice, they just want make profits. And if they can't make big profits anymore, they'll leave as the tulip system did 350 years ago...

Bitcoin euphoria just reminds me of Second Life hype. But Second Life is not dead, there are always people on there. Bitcoin won't die too. It follows the same way.

[windjc]

The amount of people interested in Bitcoin combined with the supply will not allow BTC to drop to single digits ever again.  Or double digits IMO.  I would buy so many if it did, just like everyone else would.

The law of supply and demand can't be beaten.

Most of people don't want to buy btc to play poker or satoshidice, they just want make profits. And if they can't make big profits anymore, they'll leave as the tulip system did 350 years ago...

Bitcoin Euphoria just reminds me of Second Life Hype. But Second Life is not dead, there are always people on there. Bitcoin won't die too. It follows the same way.

Your perspective is small and based on silliness. You do not comprehend the destruptive technology that bitcoin offers. To compare it to a virtual avatar world like Second Live shows how small your perspective is. You will be yet another person wondering how it all came to be.

[xavier]

Agree with the op.

Sorry guys , we got a way to go until all stabilizing. After we hit 300 again, then the panic really starts

[Loki8]

The amount of people interested in Bitcoin combined with the supply will not allow BTC to drop to single digits ever again.  Or double digits IMO.  I would buy so many if it did, just like everyone else would.

The law of supply and demand can't be beaten.

Most of people don't want to buy btc to play poker or satoshidice, they just want make profits. And if they can't make big profits anymore, they'll leave as the tulip system did 350 years ago...

Bitcoin Euphoria just reminds me of Second Life Hype. But Second Life is not dead, there are always people on there. Bitcoin won't die too. It follows the same way.

Your perspective is small and based on silliness. You do not comprehend the destruptive technology that bitcoin offers. To compare it to a virtual avatar world like Second Live shows how small your perspective is. You will be yet another person wondering how it all came to be.

I think you didn't know Second Life...

When it debuted in 2003, Second Life was an irresistible subject for Geeks and technophile reporters. It was the subject of endless, high-profile reports. Numerous companies attempted to capitalize on the attention by launching an official presence in SL.  Early adopters made millions too. The Linden Dollar, could soon influence whole industries and governments. Media coverage touted Second Life as the future of the Internet.

Yes, there are many similarities with bitcoin.

[windjc]

The amount of people interested in Bitcoin combined with the supply will not allow BTC to drop to single digits ever again.  Or double digits IMO.  I would buy so many if it did, just like everyone else would.

The law of supply and demand can't be beaten.

Most of people don't want to buy btc to play poker or satoshidice, they just want make profits. And if they can't make big profits anymore, they'll leave as the tulip system did 350 years ago...

Bitcoin Euphoria just reminds me of Second Life Hype. But Second Life is not dead, there are always people on there. Bitcoin won't die too. It follows the same way.

Your perspective is small and based on silliness. You do not comprehend the destruptive technology that bitcoin offers. To compare it to a virtual avatar world like Second Live shows how small your perspective is. You will be yet another person wondering how it all came to be.

I think you didn't know Second Life...





When it debuted in 2003, Second Life was an irresistible subject for Geeks and technophile reporters. It was the subject of endless, high-profile reports. Numerous companies attempted to capitalize on the attention by launching an official presence in SL.  Early adopters made millions too. The Linden Dollar, could soon influence whole industries and governments. Media coverage touted Second Life as the future of the Internet.

Yes, there are many similarities with bitcoin.

No, Second Life didn't solve major financial problems. Bitcoin does. If you don't know that, which its obvious you don't, then you will have to figure it out years down the road. I am not going to spend my time educating you.


EDIT: But if you are interesting in education yourself you can watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPiFMuPh1uA&feature=share

[Loki8]

Hey Kid, learn from Everyone and stop your rebellion.

Bitcoin solves nothing. Bitcoin is nothing more than a speculative bubble.

But maybe new cryptos like emunie will solve these problems...

[vpk]

Old mentality: I have got to buy, the price is going up. I will not sell at $1200, bitcoins will be worth millions.

New mentality: I have got to sell, the price is going down. Why would I hold, I might lose everything.

Old one: Look at these cheap coins ($550 vs $1200) BUY!

New one: Look at these expensive coins. Now they are $550, in 2010 they were only a few cents. SELL!

Old one: I am investing in disruptive technology!

New one: I have been scammed!

Lots of people have been burnt buying at 1200, and they want to get out. Many early adopters will try to cash in their fortunes.


Fear will replace greed. Reality will replace delusion.

Look out below.

Bitcoin below 10 dollars in 2014.

You are seriously joking. Like there would not have happened massive global development in bitcoin area and we are only getting started. This kind of messages normally always mean that the person has completely missed the train or sold too early and want to get back aboard cheaper...well, not with my coins.

Ridiculous.

[windjc]

Hey Kid, learn from Everyone and stop your rebellion.

Bitcoin solves nothing. Bitcoin is nothing more than a speculative bubble.

But maybe new cryptos like emunie will solve these problems...

Ok. Meanwhile, while I am learning from everybody, you can go back and play on your Xbox.  See you at $2000. Oh, actually I won't because you won't be here.

Btw, I own 101,000 emu.  I think its a great idea. However, bitcoin will be at ATHs within 6 months. Have fun playing video games.

[porc]

You might believe that my arguments are not substantial, however that is only your viewpoint. People who were invested in the housing bubble or the Nasdaq stock market bubble, also thought that there were no substantial counter arguments. Otherwise they would have divested.

I didn't even find an argument, some description of future bitcoin sentiment decline and an outrageous price prediction - pretty good summary of your first post. Posts of so little substance are usually posted to start a flame. Also, numerous references to "read my posts history", this is neither polite nor would anyone really care enough.

Read my book if you want to know why.

Get it in your head. This is a speculation thread. I have provided TWO LINKS above with detailed back up. You are pathetic. 

[DieJohnny]

The developments in China have honestly spooked me on Bitcoins future. While I think Bitcoin will always survive, it is clear in my mind that governments have all the power they need to keep Bitcoin a niche and fringe player in asset diversification.

If you can't trade into and out of Bitcoin quickly, then its value is greatly diminished.

I think we are at an inflection point in the first two quarters of 2014, either Bitcoin will solve its own problems or we will see Crypto Currency life 2.0, with another crypto taking the spotlight or even worse a complete abandonment of the whole idea by most people.

Everyone wants to say Bitcoin is a protocol and not software. I say BS, all the software that makes bitcoin work (exchanges, wallets, nodes, whatever) has to improve dramatically ....soon.

I own almost zero bitcoin right now. I would rather wait and lost a little on the upside than risk all the profits i have made so far. I do worry that there will be a drop in price that will be so painful that we will see full capitulation, not by any of the hard core longs on this forum, but by all the joe blow investors that drove it to 1200 in the first place.