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Author Topic: Profit next year?  (Read 735 times)
DonUber
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August 17, 2011, 06:47:37 AM
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Hello, I am new to the BitCoin World, I have setup a simple miner with one HD6950 that runs on a hashrate of 380 Mhash/s

As you know the value of each block will be decreased to 25 BTC.

So my question is, will you then earn half the money with the same hashrate?  Huh
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1up
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August 17, 2011, 06:55:20 AM
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depends on the economics of bitcoin market at that time. While you may mine less, demand for bitcoin may (hypothetically) increase so it may be valued more due to increase difficulty of mining. Overall, you shouldn't look only at how much Bitcoin you mine because the economy (real money and bitcoin) is more complex.

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nmat
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August 17, 2011, 06:58:00 AM
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So my question is, will you then earn half the money with the same hashrate?  Huh

If the difficulty doesn't change, you will earn half the bitcoins. Difficulty typically increases, so by next year you will probably be making less than that.

How much money you earn depends on the price you sell the bitcoins (if you sell them...).
DonUber
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August 17, 2011, 07:13:47 AM
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depends on the economics of bitcoin market at that time. While you may mine less, demand for bitcoin may (hypothetically) increase so it may be valued more due to increase difficulty of mining. Overall, you shouldn't look only at how much Bitcoin you mine because the economy (real money and bitcoin) is more complex.

Ok, tnx for your answer, so the smartest thing to do, is to see how many the BitCoin is worth next year and then recalculate everything to see whether it gives profit.
nmat
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August 17, 2011, 07:25:32 AM
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I strongly advise you not to make investments that take more than 3/4 months to cover the initial price. No one knows what will happen. The ATI 7000 series will come out which will increase difficulty, maybe someone will create specific hardware for mining or maybe bitcoin price will sink.

4 months ago bitcoins were worth $1. 2 months ago they were worth $30. 10 days ago they were worth $6. Now they are worth $10. See my point?
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August 17, 2011, 07:29:57 AM
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Not really, again it depends on how you value your bitcoins. Mining itself cost money (electricity + gpu card) so one has to constantly make sure that the mining done is worth the bitcoin investment. For example, if you believe that bitcoin will be valued more next year, mining (or buying) bitcoin as much as you can may be a sound investment because you'll profit more despite the cost of mining. However if you think the market will crash and people will eventually get bored with the Bitcoin fad, then selling the bitcoin as soon as you can mine them may be better. Who know if bitcoin will be worth 100 USD = 1 BTC or next to nothing by next year.

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nmat
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August 17, 2011, 07:43:54 AM
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Not really, again it depends on how you value your bitcoins. Mining itself cost money (electricity + gpu card) so one has to constantly make sure that the mining done is worth the bitcoin investment. For example, if you believe that bitcoin will be valued more next year, mining (or buying) bitcoin as much as you can may be a sound investment because you'll profit more despite the cost of mining. However if you think the market will crash and people will eventually get bored with the Bitcoin fad, then selling the bitcoin as soon as you can mine them may be better. Who know if bitcoin will be worth 100 USD = 1 BTC or next to nothing by next year.

Well, the problem is the "if you believe part". Bitcoins are a high risk investment. I really mean high risk, as in tomorrow the price could double or halve and I wouldn't be surprised. Or the government could issue specific regulation for e-currencies and this would be all over.

But politics aside, if you can't make a reasonable prediction for tomorrow, how are you supposed to guess the price next year? It is completely random. But give it a shot if you can support the losses...
Knighty
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August 17, 2011, 09:54:27 AM
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It's high risk with opportunity, I would suggest starting small if you do decide to mine.
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August 17, 2011, 10:01:48 AM
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The ATI 7000 series will come out which might increase difficulty, but someone will create specific hardware for mining and maybe bitcoin price will sink.
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August 19, 2011, 07:25:37 AM
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the government could issue specific regulation for e-currencies and this would be all over.

Which government? Do you think it would all be over if only ONE government started regulating it?

leveer
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August 19, 2011, 07:59:40 AM
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Of course, theoretically if Bitcoin gets much more popular, transaction fees will necessarily get MUCH greater.
nmat
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August 19, 2011, 12:02:32 PM
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Which government? Do you think it would all be over if only ONE government started regulating it?

No, of course not. But let's say the US government approves some law regarding virtual currencies that makes it really complicated for merchants in the US to accept bitcoins. The law could also be applied to US exchanges (they could forbid trading USD for bitcoins or demand higher fees).

Now tell me, in this scenario, how much is a bitcoin worth a year from now?
helloworld
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August 19, 2011, 12:59:58 PM
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Which government? Do you think it would all be over if only ONE government started regulating it?

No, of course not. But let's say the US government approves some law regarding virtual currencies that makes it really complicated for merchants in the US to accept bitcoins. The law could also be applied to US exchanges (they could forbid trading USD for bitcoins or demand higher fees).

Now tell me, in this scenario, how much is a bitcoin worth a year from now?


Not sure, but it'd probably be valued in EUR or YEN.

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