BTC to $304-$377 by mid/late January

[eggran]

Check out these charts I made. I'd appreciate feedback.

I'm using the exponential trendline that BTC seems to have been following. Also, I have a 1-hr and 3-mo extremes Fibonacci retracement (ignore the first one).

I'm speculating that BTC will reach between $304 and $377 by anywhere from the end of the month until mid-January, and then bounce back up conservatively.

Here's an overview:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RoR9EoKP/

Detail:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4mEdJBAa/

and a projection of $1700 by the end of 2014 and over $10,000 by 2016:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/U15E3Y9G/


Gimme some good critique!

[geraFoerra]

Gimme some good critique!

I dont understand this stuff well, but I dont believe in graphs without triangles

[eggran]

Gimme some good critique!

I dont understand this stuff well, but I dont believe in graphs without triangles

Ha!… i can't tell whether you're serious..

Let's see if i can draw some triangles...

[Lone Wolf]

eggran, don't waste your time posting stuff re fibonacci retracements and technical analysis on here.  99% of the ppl on here are totally clueless just guessing when it comes to entry and exit points for their btc buys and sells.  totally trading on emotion.

[PenAndPaper]

If tomorrow China removes the ban of bitcoin then the price will reach back 1250 in a day or two.
Childish technical analysis don't apply to bitcoin especially if you dont take in account the actual events that shaped the price so far.

[kmacri]

I don't know much about those graphs but it looks pretty well constructed.

[Itun]

This might be an educated guess.

However, the market is just too unpredictable.

[eggran]

eggran, don't waste your time posting stuff re fibonacci retracements and technical analysis on here.  99% of the ppl on here are totally clueless just guessing when it comes to entry and exit points for their btc buys and sells.  totally trading on emotion.

this is true, however i'm trying to break noob status and at the same time appeal to those users that are actually engaged in TA.

i think though in any market, there's always a percentage of traders that make moves based on emotion, so there is legitimacy to exploring TA, PenAndPaper.

[eggran]

If tomorrow China removes the ban of bitcoin then the price will reach back 1250 in a day or two.
Childish technical analysis don't apply to bitcoin especially if you dont take in account the actual events that shaped the price so far.

i'm well aware of the events and i'd hardly call technical analysis childish.  explore the speculation forum and you'll see others with similar ideas..

[Lone Wolf]

If tomorrow China removes the ban of bitcoin then the price will reach back 1250 in a day or two.
Childish technical analysis don't apply to bitcoin especially if you dont take in account the actual events that shaped the price so far.

see what i mean eggran about ppl on here being totally clueless?  anyone who thinks technical analysis is "childish" is an idiot.  and anyone who thinks china will remove the btc ban tomorrow is even more of an idiot.

[pungopete468]

I think BitCoin will fall a little bit harder and bounce a little bit higher. BitCoin is at a stage where "any media coverage is good media coverage."

Most of those already involved with the BitCoin market understand the risk and probably have a "buy" price in mind right now... Everybody else is just waiting for the first sign of a trend reversal to flood the market once again.

[Ownerdoz]

A general understanding of technical analysis and Fundamental analysis is never a bad thing. A good trader will trade using the sum of both. Sometimes just using your gut feeling is all that is needed too.

[eggran]

If tomorrow China removes the ban of bitcoin then the price will reach back 1250 in a day or two.
Childish technical analysis don't apply to bitcoin especially if you dont take in account the actual events that shaped the price so far.

see what i mean eggran about ppl on here being totally clueless?  anyone who thinks technical analysis is "childish" is an idiot.  and anyone who thinks china will remove the btc ban tomorrow is even more of an idiot.

bahaha! point taken

[pungopete468]

All I know for sure is that the instant it hits $150 per coin I'll convert every USD I can find into BTC.

If it doesn't get that low I'll use a more conservative investment strategy because I believe the potential market price cap on BTC is non-existent.

[iPaulito]

Technical analysis in cryptocurrencies is worthless, it is a very young market with a great space for manipulation, e. g. now you need "only" 1000 BTC to market 10% which is a lot. When you look at the last bubble and examine its lows after burst thoroughly you will see that those 420-450 from yesterday is a total low for a long time. If BTC succeeds you will probably nevery see those prices again

[Bitbuy]

I don't completely agree with your Low; but your trend description looks accurate...

[T.Stuart]

To save completely new investors a lot of potential heartache and bitterness, this is a good demonstration of Bitcoin's price evolution.

But deep down I think a little conservative.

[freebird]

eggran, good analysis overall, but I think it's more likely that we'll bounce around in a narrow trading range of $400 to $700 for the next few months. I don't see another huge downward move in the near future, since I think the bad news from China is already priced in by now.

[eggran]

I don't completely agree with your Low; but your trend description looks accurate...

thanks.  the 304-377 low is assuming there's a Fib retracement.

if it breaks through the 1yr .764 point, then i'd say it's likely to hit a 150-200 low sometime in February.

i did this quick, but something like this:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/q7vfgA36/

[laowai80]

It's a possible scenario, the price bounced off the 100-day MA yesterday, but if it's a major correction, like the one we had in April-July, the price could go close to the 200-day MA, which will be around $300 in January.