BTC to $304-$377 by mid/late January

[knightcoin]

via Imgflip Meme Maker

[GriTBitS]

On wave 4 right now, so quite possibly. Wave 5 will shake out all the rest, cuz most will rebuy on wave 4 only to watch it fall again. So low that they will just say fuck it. Only to watch it rebound a few weeks later.... But i think wave 5 will be so hard that most first time investors or people that went all in with money they shouldn't have will be in such total panic that they will puke there coins up for anything! Because whatever the new bad news is, will be such a mind fuck. They will give up hope on bitcoin all together. I am looking forward to just watching how low it gets! The best thing about mining, you don't get very emotional about the price... Quite liberating!!! I should have sold a couple though after the 7,21 cross on the 2 or 4 hour chart... just to double those coins. But there is always the next big run up! Word of advice people, if it recrosses going up and you buy back in, sell as soon as it recrosses going down, so you don't sell so low when you get really doubtful. And if you miss the sell point just walk away from your charts and gets out of the house and forget you even own bitcoin for a few weeks. There is going to be a nice phase of accumulating of coins that wall street and the good traders or people with black boxes will be doing in the next few weeks, they will be buying but the price will keep going lower or will stay low through a nice consolidation period. Will be a great time to buy in. But if you buy and it goes lower just realize that is just them trying to shake you out!

[laowai80]

whatever the new bad news is, will be such a mind fuck.

Apart from if sha-256 is broken or 51% attack successfully forked off another blockchain, anything else is not worth paying attention to.

[NUFCrichard]

Seems like a fairly randomly placed line to me.  Bitcoin never falls below it and it is base on the 2 lowest points. 
After the last boom, Bitcoin didn't touch your line.  It could so easily be moved to $800.

[Draino]

So where's the chart that predicted the Chinese selloff or the silk road closing or the Cyprus event?  I have a hard time believing these charts are more than a complete waste of otherwise quality brain power

[eggran]

eggran, good analysis overall, but I think it's more likely that we'll bounce around in a narrow trading range of $400 to $700 for the next few months. I don't see another huge downward move in the near future, since I think the bad news from China is already priced in by now.

you could be correct, but it seems like (if you look at the first picture of the topic post) we're still much above our support trendline.  I agree, i may have drawn the downward short-term trend a little steep; it could take longer.

[EvilPanda]

So where's the chart that predicted the Chinese selloff or the silk road closing or the Cyprus event?  I have a hard time believing these charts are more than a complete waste of otherwise quality brain power

Yup, if they weren't screwed by their central bank we woul've been sitting on $800-900. If you haven't noticed the price was starting to recover before another bad news came. So if somehow your predictions came true it's just a lucky guess. We are that low only because of panic in China.

[eggran]

So where's the chart that predicted the Chinese selloff or the silk road closing or the Cyprus event?  I have a hard time believing these charts are more than a complete waste of otherwise quality brain power

i'm looking longer term. all those events are very minor, economically speaking.

for example, the silk road publicity probably attracted more attention and will benefit btc more than the short term panic and price drop it caused.

[eggran]

Seems like a fairly randomly placed line to me.  Bitcoin never falls below it and it is base on the 2 lowest points. 
After the last boom, Bitcoin didn't touch your line.  It could so easily be moved to $800.

that is a support line on a log chart. the fact that we are so far from it (like 400%-ish) is telling me it's overvalued.

i'm betting sometime in 2014 (like june/july) we'll skim it again

but this is all of course IMO. if i could predict the future i wouldn't be sharing it with anyone! haha, just looking for feedback, discussion, and ideas

[eggran]

whatever the new bad news is, will be such a mind fuck.

Apart from if sha-256 is broken or 51% attack successfully forked off another blockchain, anything else is not worth paying attention to.

i'm sorry, i'm not keen on the mining end… what does breaking sha-256 impart on the value of btc? wouldn't it make it more difficult, therefore more rare/valuable? preach...

[DPoS]

Seems like a fairly randomly placed line to me.  Bitcoin never falls below it and it is base on the 2 lowest points.  
After the last boom, Bitcoin didn't touch your line.  It could so easily be moved to $800.

that is a support line on a log chart. the fact that we are so far from it (like 400%-ish) is telling me it's overvalued.

i'm betting sometime in 2014 (like june/july) we'll skim it again

but this is all of course IMO. if i could predict the future i wouldn't be sharing it with anyone! haha, just looking for feedback, discussion, and ideas

TA needs stable parameters

if nothing changed in China we would of seen a slow retracement as the value would not sustain as new coins still being generated being a greater inflow than hot money.

any TA with bitcoin at this stage needs to explain what parameters it is being evaluated in.  way too much political regulations still in play.


so..  what if the regulators take in bitcoin and redtape it to its liking? the crime and hidden money exit but the big boys get to play on the level and btc soars to $5000-8000 as the fancy new Gold 2.0..    then you might have some other alt coin take in the shady funds and life goes on that way.

or, the feds kill it since they want jpmorgan or whoever to run the new digital game...  btc becomes akin to linden dollars and is still used by geeks, gamers and some small time oversea commerce...  btc stays around $100 then


each of those scenarios can have their own TA charts  

[HairyMaclairy]

whatever the new bad news is, will be such a mind fuck.

Apart from if sha-256 is broken or 51% attack successfully forked off another blockchain, anything else is not worth paying attention to.

i'm sorry, i'm not keen on the mining end… what does breaking sha-256 impart on the value of btc? wouldn't it make it more difficult, therefore more rare/valuable? preach...

Bitcoin is built on SHA 256.  If someone manages to crack SHA 256, Bitcoin is over.  

*edit*. It is currently believed impossible to break SHA 256 with current technology and math skills. 20 years from now - who knows. 

[eggran]

Seems like a fairly randomly placed line to me.  Bitcoin never falls below it and it is base on the 2 lowest points.  
After the last boom, Bitcoin didn't touch your line.  It could so easily be moved to $800.

that is a support line on a log chart. the fact that we are so far from it (like 400%-ish) is telling me it's overvalued.

i'm betting sometime in 2014 (like june/july) we'll skim it again

but this is all of course IMO. if i could predict the future i wouldn't be sharing it with anyone! haha, just looking for feedback, discussion, and ideas

TA needs stable parameters

if nothing changed in China we would of seen a slow retracement as the value would not sustain as new coins still being generated being a greater inflow than hot money.

any TA with bitcoin at this stage needs to explain what parameters it is being evaluated in.  way too much political regulations still in play.


so..  what if the regulators take in bitcoin and redtape it to its liking? the crime and hidden money exit but the big boys get to play on the level and btc soars to $5000-8000 as the fancy new Gold 2.0..    then you might have some other alt coin take in the shady funds and life goes on that way.

or, the feds kill it since they want jpmorgan or whoever to run the new digital game...  btc becomes akin to linden dollars and is still used by geeks, gamers and some small time oversea commerce...  btc stays around $100 then


each of those scenarios can have their own TA charts  

true. though i believe it will, in the longterm, go up.


http://www.ibtimes.com/worlds-biggest-bitcoin-wallet-owned-us-government-1514100

http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/bitcoin-google-search-trends-2013-trending-btc-bitcoin-exchange/

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/business/2013/11/29/bitcoin-price-heads-skyward-as-u-s--acknowledges-legality.html

[kwest]

If I'm not mistaken, bitcoin has never gone lower than it's previous ATH in any crash before. So going below $260 would be something totally new.. even below $300 IMO would be very low. That's why I'm leaning towards us having gone pretty close to the bottom already.

[eggran]

whatever the new bad news is, will be such a mind fuck.

Apart from if sha-256 is broken or 51% attack successfully forked off another blockchain, anything else is not worth paying attention to.

i'm sorry, i'm not keen on the mining end… what does breaking sha-256 impart on the value of btc? wouldn't it make it more difficult, therefore more rare/valuable? preach...

Bitcoin is built on SHA 256.  If someone manages to crack SHA 256, Bitcoin is over.  

*edit*. It is currently believed impossible to break SHA 256 with current technology and math skills. 20 years from now - who knows. 

so… who's developing SHA-512?

[windjc]

On wave 4 right now, so quite possibly. Wave 5 will shake out all the rest, cuz most will rebuy on wave 4 only to watch it fall again. So low that they will just say fuck it. Only to watch it rebound a few weeks later.... But i think wave 5 will be so hard that most first time investors or people that went all in with money they shouldn't have will be in such total panic that they will puke there coins up for anything! Because whatever the new bad news is, will be such a mind fuck. They will give up hope on bitcoin all together. I am looking forward to just watching how low it gets! The best thing about mining, you don't get very emotional about the price... Quite liberating!!! I should have sold a couple though after the 7,21 cross on the 2 or 4 hour chart... just to double those coins. But there is always the next big run up! Word of advice people, if it recrosses going up and you buy back in, sell as soon as it recrosses going down, so you don't sell so low when you get really doubtful. And if you miss the sell point just walk away from your charts and gets out of the house and forget you even own bitcoin for a few weeks. There is going to be a nice phase of accumulating of coins that wall street and the good traders or people with black boxes will be doing in the next few weeks, they will be buying but the price will keep going lower or will stay low through a nice consolidation period. Will be a great time to buy in. But if you buy and it goes lower just realize that is just them trying to shake you out!

Is it not possible that we just saw Wave 5?  In this case wave 2 would have been the quick snapback that occured on Dec. 5th?  And, thus, is it not possible that we have started a new 1 of the overall uptrend?

[UnDerDoG81]

People still think they know what bitcoin will do tomorrow?

[EvilPanda]

People still think they know what bitcoin will do tomorrow?

I know what my BTC is doing today Climbing!

[Draino]

So where's the chart that predicted the Chinese selloff or the silk road closing or the Cyprus event?  I have a hard time believing these charts are more than a complete waste of otherwise quality brain power

i'm looking longer term. all those events are very minor, economically speaking.

for example, the silk road publicity probably attracted more attention and will benefit btc more than the short term panic and price drop it caused.

that's kind of what i mean

i don't know of a chart that could have predicted the immediate sell-off and moonshot rally that followed
and if there was one, i want to meet whoever created it

i don't mean to discourage you, i'm sure there are lots of successful traders who follow charts
now that i think about it, i'm not a successful trader, so maybe i should start

[BitchicksHusband]

Check out these charts I made. I'd appreciate feedback.

I'm using the exponential trendline that BTC seems to have been following. Also, I have a 1-hr and 3-mo extremes Fibonacci retracement (ignore the first one).

I'm speculating that BTC will reach between $304 and $377 by anywhere from the end of the month until mid-January, and then bounce back up conservatively.

Here's an overview:


Detail:


and a projection of $1700 by the end of 2014 and over $10,000 by 2016:



Gimme some good critique!

OK.  All that money people were spending on Christmas presents in December, they'll be back to buying bitcoin in January.  So highly unlikely that we drop to $300 when we didn't even do that when China fully outlawed bitcoin.

Bitcoin's not a stock so it won't follow the kind of analysis you put in your charts.

Unless you have inside information that the EU is going to outright ban bitcoin in January, then maybe.