New bull trap has been set...

[T.Stuart]

Its the exact same chart as last week - Chinese Arb cycle. Theyre only buying so they can dump on other exchanges, and they'll wait all the way till rally seems maxed out before they attack. Then suddenly the volume on BT China completely dies since there are no real buyers other than the arb, and they start dumping at the same time, causing a sick drop. Meanwhile every exchange is still wired to follow BT China, so everyone slides to hell together. SO As soon ad you see the volume on BT China die you GTFO. Next stop may be 350. This slide will continue until other exchanges support the price on their own and decouple from BT China.

Do you know how hard it is to actually make money arb'ing with Bitcoin? It's near impossible. The idea that there are a shit load of Chinese traders buying on BTC China to dump elsewhere is frankly a load of bollocks.

+1

[thefunkybits]

Agreed with OP, everything is pointing towards a downward trend. Although it could rally higher still from here this bulltrap should be almost over.

Weak recovery on the Technical Side

[Chalkbot]

Yep. Waiting for the price to fall is a proven strategy in bitcoin.










Second only to hodl.

[ElectricMucus]

Arbitrage is the right word but it's simply not causing these big spikes.

1. Chinese man with FIAT in BTCCHINA. He wants to make a profit so he buys all the BTC and then sells on MtGox with an extra $100usd on top. Now what does he do with USD in MTGOX? It takes months to withdraw, and then he has to withdraw into his Chinese bank. There is definitely no repeating cycle here because it's simply too long and as we have been told, FIAT is not travelling back into the BTC Exchanges.

2. Foreigner with FIAT in BTC China. Any foreigner with fiat in BTC China wants to get out, they should be buying BTC and moving it elsewhere. He sells on MtGox or Bitstamp and then what? He can't send it back to China to repeat the cycle.

Basically, it's not a cycle of arbitrage, the price difference on the exchange is not an opportunity that many people can take advantage of, not enough to create massive price spikes across all exchanges.

Anybody in China with yuan on the exchange will just withdraw them and be done with it.

[NeedForBitcoin]

The ride never ends.

[JimboToronto]

Blah blah blah...  after a horrific crash... blah blah... two weeks of bearmarket after horrible news... blah blah...

Do you really think this was a "horrific crash"?

How about the crash of Sept/Oct 2010 when BTC fell from over $.11 down to $.01, losing over 90% of its value at one point?

Or the crash of 2011 when it fell from $31 to $2, a drop of over 93%.

Or more recently, last April when the drop from $266 to $50 represented more than an 80% loss.

This was just a small correction coupled with a panic based on uncertainty.

It was an excellent opportunity to buy more coins.

[ElectricMucus]

Blah blah blah...  after a horrific crash... blah blah... two weeks of bearmarket after horrible news... blah blah...

Do you really think this was a "horrific crash"?

How about the crash of Sept/Oct 2010 when BTC fell from over $.11 down to $.01, losing over 90% of its value at one point?

Or the crash of 2011 when it fell from $31 to $2, a drop of over 93%.

Or more recently, last April when the drop from $266 to $50 represented more than an 80% loss.

This was just a small correction coupled with a panic based on uncertainty.

It was an excellent opportunity to buy more coins.

It did crash 99%+ in 2011. The trades just were rolled back.

[Argwai96]

Blah blah blah...  after a horrific crash... blah blah... two weeks of bearmarket after horrible news... blah blah...

Do you really think this was a "horrific crash"?

How about the crash of Sept/Oct 2010 when BTC fell from over $.11 down to $.01, losing over 90% of its value at one point?

Or the crash of 2011 when it fell from $31 to $2, a drop of over 93%.

Or more recently, last April when the drop from $266 to $50 represented more than an 80% loss.

This was just a small correction coupled with a panic based on uncertainty.

It was an excellent opportunity to buy more coins.

It did crash 99%+ in 2011. The trades just were rolled back.

but those weren't actually ordered by the traders whose accounts held the coins.... were they?

[ElectricMucus]

Blah blah blah...  after a horrific crash... blah blah... two weeks of bearmarket after horrible news... blah blah...

Do you really think this was a "horrific crash"?

How about the crash of Sept/Oct 2010 when BTC fell from over $.11 down to $.01, losing over 90% of its value at one point?

Or the crash of 2011 when it fell from $31 to $2, a drop of over 93%.

Or more recently, last April when the drop from $266 to $50 represented more than an 80% loss.

This was just a small correction coupled with a panic based on uncertainty.

It was an excellent opportunity to buy more coins.

It did crash 99%+ in 2011. The trades just were rolled back.

but those weren't actually ordered by the traders whose accounts held the coins.... were they?

The legend says so, I always thought this was made up on the spot. Mtgox could have just made the whole "hack" story up to stay in business - we have no way to know.

Even so, at this point Bitcoins were essentially worthless, because there was only mtgox.

[accord01]

Blah blah blah...  after a horrific crash... blah blah... two weeks of bearmarket after horrible news... blah blah...

Do you really think this was a "horrific crash"?

How about the crash of Sept/Oct 2010 when BTC fell from over $.11 down to $.01, losing over 90% of its value at one point?

Or the crash of 2011 when it fell from $31 to $2, a drop of over 93%.

Or more recently, last April when the drop from $266 to $50 represented more than an 80% loss.

This was just a small correction coupled with a panic based on uncertainty.

It was an excellent opportunity to buy more coins.

You have any idea what's going on here?  There are over 9 million dollars borrowed on bitfinex for positions going long... China is the only thing holding this overbought little bounce.  And the reason why China is not dropping is because there is no coins left in the exchange, only CNY.

[Argwai96]

Blah blah blah...  after a horrific crash... blah blah... two weeks of bearmarket after horrible news... blah blah...

Do you really think this was a "horrific crash"?

How about the crash of Sept/Oct 2010 when BTC fell from over $.11 down to $.01, losing over 90% of its value at one point?

Or the crash of 2011 when it fell from $31 to $2, a drop of over 93%.

Or more recently, last April when the drop from $266 to $50 represented more than an 80% loss.

This was just a small correction coupled with a panic based on uncertainty.

It was an excellent opportunity to buy more coins.

You have any idea what's going on here?  There are over 9 million dollars borrowed on bitfinex for positions going long... China is the only thing holding this overbought little bounce.  And the reason why China is not dropping is because there is no coins left in the exchange, only CNY.

why is there no coins on the exchange? i cant imagine everyone tries to sell on bitstamp, etc considering it may not be easy to recoup their CNY

[accord01]

Blah blah blah...  after a horrific crash... blah blah... two weeks of bearmarket after horrible news... blah blah...

Do you really think this was a "horrific crash"?

How about the crash of Sept/Oct 2010 when BTC fell from over $.11 down to $.01, losing over 90% of its value at one point?

Or the crash of 2011 when it fell from $31 to $2, a drop of over 93%.

Or more recently, last April when the drop from $266 to $50 represented more than an 80% loss.

This was just a small correction coupled with a panic based on uncertainty.

It was an excellent opportunity to buy more coins.

You have any idea what's going on here?  There are over 9 million dollars borrowed on bitfinex for positions going long... China is the only thing holding this overbought little bounce.  And the reason why China is not dropping is because there is no coins left in the exchange, only CNY.

why is there no coins on the exchange? i cant imagine everyone tries to sell on bitstamp, etc considering it may not be easy to recoup their CNY

China's price is inflated.  This is their dead cat bounce from it's ugly crash.  Once they see the magnitude... that the government is serious about putting a lid on bitcoin, and how Bobby Lee's attempts to get around isn't working (it's been like 15 hrs since a new payment process should be online), btcchina will start to actually turn into ghost town.  All the exchanges are just following btcchina.  It's sad, because BTCchina made this price so inflated.

[Edward50]

accord01: where do you see the price falling down to?

[accord01]

280-330 bitstamp price... could be as early as the weekend... could be as late as january to mid february.

[TERA]

Just because of all the bearish sentiment it will probably go up to 820. Right after you become bullish THEN it will start its descent to 360.

[Edward50]

The thing is it seems that people just sit on these coins, they were once $1200 so they will be worth $1200 again. Why sell?
Anybody who is intelligent enough to set up a wallet and actually buy bitcoins are probably well off financially and don't have to sell bitcoins.

This is the reason why the price just keeps going up and doesn't fall. Bitcoins are like a rare collectors item and the more people who get involved the rarer they become.

[bitcon]

Blah blah blah...  after a horrific crash... blah blah... two weeks of bearmarket after horrible news... blah blah...

Do you really think this was a "horrific crash"?

How about the crash of Sept/Oct 2010 when BTC fell from over $.11 down to $.01, losing over 90% of its value at one point?

Or the crash of 2011 when it fell from $31 to $2, a drop of over 93%.

Or more recently, last April when the drop from $266 to $50 represented more than an 80% loss.

This was just a small correction coupled with a panic based on uncertainty.

It was an excellent opportunity to buy more coins.

It did crash 99%+ in 2011. The trades just were rolled back.

but those weren't actually ordered by the traders whose accounts held the coins.... were they?

The legend says so, I always thought this was made up on the spot. Mtgox could have just made the whole "hack" story up to stay in business - we have no way to know.

Even so, at this point Bitcoins were essentially worthless, because there was only mtgox.

wrong.   there was also Tradehill.

[Edward50]

Jeez, I remember that time mt gox went to 0.01 per bitcoin, I think I was online at the time watching it. I remember all the people pissed since they didn't get their .01 bitcoins they bought. 

[ElectricMucus]

Blah blah blah...  after a horrific crash... blah blah... two weeks of bearmarket after horrible news... blah blah...

Do you really think this was a "horrific crash"?

How about the crash of Sept/Oct 2010 when BTC fell from over $.11 down to $.01, losing over 90% of its value at one point?

Or the crash of 2011 when it fell from $31 to $2, a drop of over 93%.

Or more recently, last April when the drop from $266 to $50 represented more than an 80% loss.

This was just a small correction coupled with a panic based on uncertainty.

It was an excellent opportunity to buy more coins.

It did crash 99%+ in 2011. The trades just were rolled back.

but those weren't actually ordered by the traders whose accounts held the coins.... were they?

The legend says so, I always thought this was made up on the spot. Mtgox could have just made the whole "hack" story up to stay in business - we have no way to know.

Even so, at this point Bitcoins were essentially worthless, because there was only mtgox.

wrong.   there was also Tradehill.

There was not. Perhaps the company existed at this point but they only got any volume to speak of after that.

[DPoS]

Do you know how hard it is to actually make money arb'ing with Bitcoin? It's near impossible. The idea that there are a shit load of Chinese traders buying on BTC China to dump elsewhere is frankly a load of bollocks.

+1
[/quote]

NO, the full circle arb is a royal pain in ass.. the one way arb is always there (until the money truck shows up on the other side to close the gap for a short time)

so yes, many that had accounts on multiple exchanges beat that horse pretty soundly during the crash...