What will China think as they see the price of bitcoin rise after banning it?

[neuroMode]

Hypothetically speaking, say bitcoin steadily rises to $1000 by the end of the year and China sits on the sidelines while watching it become more and more desirable to the world.

Does this cause them to take a second look at their stance on depositing to exchanges and merchant use? Do they remain stubborn? Do the leaders secretly acquire bitcoin while making it difficult for its citizens to acquire it?

I'm just wondering how countries that currently shun bitcoin will perceive it if it hypothetically continues to rise in price, desirability, and functionality? Will its price inevitably convince all countries to adopt it?

[Nancarrow]

Do the leaders secretly acquire bitcoin while making it difficult for its citizens to acquire it?

This. The powerful always look for new ways to buttfuck the weak. And they invariably LOVE doing things they forbid the masses to do.

[maursader]

NeuroMode, welcome to bitcointalk. You raise a good point, "what will china think as they see the price of bitcoin rise after banning it?"

To answer that question, let's hypothetically put ourselves in their shoes.

1. Bitcoin is a great way for wealthy chinese to store (hide) assets from the chinese government, and even move it to another country. This alone makes bitcoin such a valuable payment gateway.
2. The chinese raised the price over $1000 per BTC.
3. They managed to crash the price to where it is now.

Assuming they still see the value in bitcoin, it's only natural to expect that if they lift the ban or find some loophole/workaround that they will jump back into it, and bitcoin will soar over the $2,000 mark... easily.

So yeah, they'll probably come back, and kick some ass again.

[Beymond]

US gorv already not denied it so i don think china will ban it , they will just firgue a way to control it

[Johnny Bitcoinseed]

USA has banned many drugs, and even alcohol during prohibition.  How has that worked out?  It actually made the price of these higher. 

People find work-arounds to government interventions.  The "black market" always flourishes and as mentioned by others you can bet the farm that many Chinese public servants...err, I mean "Officials".... are into Bitcoin themselves in a big way.

[btcrich]

Not being able to send funds from my bank account here in China directly to btcchina is merely a nuisance.  There are other ways to easily move fiat to an exchange.

I also believe that, aside from the hype-factor, China's impact on Bitcoin is being overly emphasized  While btcchina is transacting substantial volumes of btc, I'd suspect a large portion of the trades are also made by foreign entities.  Without btcchina revealing the true figures however, that's just a guess.

Bitcoin will succeed with or without China, and regardless of any laws about owning Bitcoin, those that want to acquire Bitcoin's will always find a way.

[Siegfried]

Not being able to send funds from my bank account here in China directly to btcchina is merely a nuisance.  There are other ways to easily move fiat to an exchange.

I also believe that, aside from the hype-factor, China's impact on Bitcoin is being overly emphasized  While btcchina is transacting substantial volumes of btc, I'd suspect a large portion of the trades are also made by foreign entities.  Without btcchina revealing the true figures however, that's just a guess.

Bitcoin will succeed with or without China, and regardless of any laws about owning Bitcoin, those that want to acquire Bitcoin's will always find a way.

In China, how?

[madmadmax]

Prohibition of drugs has always failed in every country it took place, how can they seriously believe that prohibiting intangible goods will prove to be more successful? The only thing they accomplish is creating a black market for BTC.

[polarhei]

They think this can be dangerous if bank involves directly like the Lehman case.

It is not only just price, it is about only few people studied the fact carefully.

Currently right now, even PRC limits these trading, price goes to reasonable rate. Now Let see when can reach more than 1.2 Grand.

[BTCisthefuture]

Considering the type of control the Chinese government likes to have over things and the status quo. I don't expect them to change their mind too soon.

As far as the price of bitcoin rising. Anyone in China with money and or connections can and still will be able to easily get bitcoin (not that hard for someone with money or power to have bank accounts in other countries and use exchanges outside of china)  if they are interested in profiting. Just like people with money and or connections/power in China all tend to send their children to top schools in foreign countries while the average migrant worker can't send his kid to a decent school in the very city they live/work in simply because they weren't born in that city.

[bittymymitty]

There's another way the wealthy in China can acquire bitcoins which will impact prices, they can mine the coins themselves.  I can see the very wealthy setting up mining "factories" for the sole purpose of generating their own cache of coins.  This would make difficulty skyrocket and squeeze the ROI of miners everywhere.  Miners would hold out for higher prices which would put pricing pressure on bitcoins across all exchanges.  China is fighting a losing battle, if people want something, they'll find a way to get it.

[guybrushthreepwood]

China hasn't banned Bitcoin yet. Most of the coins are still going into China.

[Ecurb123]

Of course China is just a word which represents an organization of people so it can't really think anything. But for the people in that organization, I don't really think they will care, won't affect them. 

[maursader]

It will be nice once china allows banks and payment processors to start trading BTC again... anyone who buys now, basically wins.

[Bitcoinpro]

It will be nice once china allows banks and payment processors to start trading BTC again... anyone who buys now, basically wins.

indeed and people in China would be just acquiring it outside the exchanges at a hefty premium, so effectively the price has already skyrocketed for them

[guybrushthreepwood]

I wonder if they re-allow exchanges to accept deposits, will the value return to it's previous peak?

[maursader]

It will be nice once china allows banks and payment processors to start trading BTC again... anyone who buys now, basically wins.

indeed and people in China would be just acquiring it outside the exchanges at a hefty premium, so effectively the price has already skyrocketed for them

Knowing the fact that they have pretty deep pockets, I have a feeling they'll still buy it at a premium, and then charge a gigantic premium on top of that, effectively surpassing the $2k barrier.

[woutersteven]

I'm in Hong Kong and have been to some gatherings here. I think within January or February we will hear about a partial solution to the China problem. Either because the people have found a way or because the exchanges have found a way. I know of the following ideas that are being considered by some people

- Install bitcoin ATMs in China. I'm not sure how this would be legal, but some people would think without the trading element the situation might be different
- Sell hardware (usb sticks) with bitcoin wallets on them
- Setup exchange in Special administrative zones in China, in Hong Kong or in Macau. Rules are less strict there.
- Let people buy another commodity (such as gold) and exchange the gold for bitcoins (instead of fiat currencies)

These are just some of the things I've heard. I'm by no means an expert, but it does seem the problem is being worked on.

[starmex]

I'm in Hong Kong and have been to some gatherings here. I think within January or February we will hear about a partial solution to the China problem. Either because the people have found a way or because the exchanges have found a way. I know of the following ideas that are being considered by some people

- Install bitcoin ATMs in China. I'm not sure how this would be legal, but some people would think without the trading element the situation might be different
- Sell hardware (usb sticks) with bitcoin wallets on them
- Setup exchange in Special administrative zones in China, in Hong Kong or in Macau. Rules are less strict there.
- Let people buy another commodity (such as gold) and exchange the gold for bitcoins (instead of fiat currencies)

These are just some of the things I've heard. I'm by no means an expert, but it does seem the problem is being worked on.

Selling usb sticks with bitcoin wallets on them? Sounds like a typical scam in china!

[CryptoCoinSolutions]

There's another way the wealthy in China can acquire bitcoins which will impact prices, they can mine the coins themselves.  I can see the very wealthy setting up mining "factories" for the sole purpose of generating their own cache of coins.  This would make difficulty skyrocket and squeeze the ROI of miners everywhere.  Miners would hold out for higher prices which would put pricing pressure on bitcoins across all exchanges.  China is fighting a losing battle, if people want something, they'll find a way to get it.

The AMD Radeon GPU are made in China. We are even now seeing really strong competition between gamers and miners here in the U.S., selling out stocks of high end AMD cards as soon as they hit the shelves, especially the coveted MSI and ASUS R9 series cards. We see wild prices when googling for shopping these cards. It is undeniable, China can barely keep up with U.S. demand.

And I agree 1,000%, those that like bitcoin, and especially Charles Lee's Litecoin, they are going to setup mining facilities, and they have a much more direct access to AMD GPU coming out of the Chinese factories in China. GPU retailers are going to service the markets with the least cost to sell into, and that is China. Why ship the cards to the U.S. and to Europe when there is an extremely large middle, upper middle and wealthy class growing in China, with an interest, (an interest spurned by their government), in bitcoin, litecoin and CryptoCurrency in general.

The factories that produce the GPU, the chip foundries that are making the chips can barely keep up with demand pre-Christmas as we saw the most recent parabolic rally starting in December. 7950's are nowhere to be found, because the factories are re-tooling and moving forward with the R9 series. And we know the 7950 would still sell like hotcakes, but the factories can't produce them, otherwise, there would not be enough raw material to produce the R9.

So yes, again and again I agree strongly, the Chinese are going to mine, and the difficulty will be impacted, but will be held back simply because the factories cannot produce enough cards, and that will spur more buying as people who want to mine, but cannot afford the ever more expensive cards, simply capitulate into a purchase of coin using fiat where they can find that opportunity.

And let's not forget the Chinese individual selling bitcoin from their laptop, or their smartphone direct for fiat, you can be certain this is happening.

So China is still in play in many ways, most notably as they will certainly ramp up mining with the high end GPU that are much more accessible to their market.