Will Bitcoin reach $ 3,333,333.00 in 2034 ?

[bigbits]

Hi there,

I accidentally stumbled upon this site: http://bitcoin-valuation.org/fair-value-bitcoin-28823/

That guy thinks Bitcoin will rise to over $ 3 million some day, and that today's fair value is over $ 38,000. 

Any ideas from anyone here in this forum in what respect he is right and in what respect he is wrong?

BUT: If he is right, please don't tell anyone except me!!! 

Thanks, bigbits.

[Kaligulax]

I dont think so!

[black_swan]

I don't think so, unless BTC will be used as THE gold of the future and used by govt to back their FIAT (ROFL), which will never EVER happen! We will be lucky enough if they let us trade with it and use it as a commodity

That guy definitely visits tor network often..

[Hunterbunter]

Sure, why not. This is early days.

[wachtwoord]

Re-reading I saw he forgot to inflate the total money supply to 50.1*1.025^20 = 81.1 Trillion. But then again he does predict Bitcoin will replace the money supply completely so maybe that compensates.

[Skoupi]

If bitcoin reaches $3m satoshi will become more wealthy than many countries combined   
Not going to happen.

[tearfereon]

and that today's fair value is over $ 38,000. 

I could sell him my Bitcoin for $ 38,000 now. How about this?

[wachtwoord]

and that today's fair value is over $ 38,000. 

I could sell him my Bitcoin for $ 38,000 now. How about this?

Why would he when cheaper ones are available on the market?

[hoewer4what]

More realistic is max prediction value between 100,000 and 1,000,000. Obviously 10+ years

[wachtwoord]

More realistic is max prediction value between 100,000 and 1,000,000. Obviously 10+ years

Nice calculation (do I need to make it explicit this is sarcasm?)

[BlockChainLottery]

It's a pretty straightforward calculation. Something is bothering me, though.
Many of these sort of calculation lack the fact that a lot of people will not use it as a way of paying.
They will hold it and wait instead. With a lesser amount of money in circulation, the price of BTC would be even higher.
But that is not what's happening.

Also some say the cost of mining should also be taken into account, just as mining gold. I think he's doing it right by leaving that out of the picture.
If not using gold as money, it can always be used as jewelery or in electronics. If bitcoin is not used anymore as a currency it would be worth noting.

The price is gone up big time this passed year. But transaction/day not that much. It didn't went up like 1000%.
That means that bitcoin still contains a bubble. If someone would argue it is undervalued because in the future it would replace all the money in the world, then IMO he isn't understanding Warren Buffet much. He does indeed talk about investing if a company is undervalued, but undervalued in the present or very near future. Everything else is really just speculating.

[udet4food]

That guy thinks Bitcoin will rise to over $ 3 million some day, and that today's fair value is over $ 38,000. 

Today's fair value is 700 instead of 38,000 (so 50x overestimated)
So he is telling one day Bitcoin can have 3,000,000 / 50 = about 60,000 value. I agree with 60,000

[wachtwoord]

That guy thinks Bitcoin will rise to over $ 3 million some day, and that today's fair value is over $ 38,000. 

Today's fair value is 700 instead of 38,000 (so 50x overestimated)
So he is telling one day Bitcoin can have 3,000,000 / 50 = about 75,000 value. I agree with 75,000

Why do you believe today's fair value is 700? Please don't say because that's the exchange rate because by doing so you will only make a fool out of yourself. Price and value are completely different things.

[over1977v]

The calculation doesn't seem so weird. At least he shows that the current price of ~750 implies a yearly return rate of ~50 of the price of 1 BTC goes to 2.5M in 2033 (2.5*10^6 / 1.50^20 = 752). It's good for people to see that the undervaluation (although I believe still exists and is huge) is still a lot less than t has been in the past. A early ROI of 50% is far lower than we have seen in the past.

BTW: A more normal return of 10% (which is common in valuing companies) would imply a value today of $371609. But I believe a far higher discount rate is warranted in the case of Bitcoin.

Im completly lost with your calculations. If you mean 1 BTC should be $371609 today, your completly off

[wachtwoord]

The calculation doesn't seem so weird. At least he shows that the current price of ~750 implies a yearly return rate of ~50 of the price of 1 BTC goes to 2.5M in 2033 (2.5*10^6 / 1.50^20 = 752). It's good for people to see that the undervaluation (although I believe still exists and is huge) is still a lot less than t has been in the past. A early ROI of 50% is far lower than we have seen in the past.

BTW: A more normal return of 10% (which is common in valuing companies) would imply a value today of $371609. But I believe a far higher discount rate is warranted in the case of Bitcoin.

Im completly lost with your calculations. If you mean 1 BTC should be $371609 today, your completly off

If the value of Bitcoin in 20 years is $2.5M and the discount rate you use is 10%, then yes that is what I'm saying.

I think a higher discount rate is warranted here however (as I state in the post quoted above).

[liuspring]

may be
But nothing will be sure

[iPaulito]

Hi there,

I accidentally stumbled upon this site: http://bitcoin-valuation.org/fair-value-bitcoin-28823/

That guy thinks Bitcoin will rise to over $ 3 million some day, and that today's fair value is over $ 38,000. 

Any ideas from anyone here in this forum in what respect he is right and in what respect he is wrong?

BUT: If he is right, please don't tell anyone except me!!! 

Thanks, bigbits.

It can be whatever people want it to be. So either infinity or zero. So many things can go wrong and so many things can go right.

[timmylee]

crazy amount !

[LordSloth]

I see Bitcoin like the first popular search engine "AltaVista"

Eventually, Google crushed it, so Bitcoin may not be the eventual winner here.  First to market does not always guarantee success.

With the current flaws in Bitcoin, I see them like AltaVista.  They will shoot up, crash and be replaced with something better.

Right now it takes anywhere from 30 minutes to an hour to confirm a bitcoin transaction.  I need this to get down to less than 10 seconds.

I run several eCommerce sites and I take Visa and Mastercard.  It takes less than 3-4 seconds to verify the transaction.  No way, could I ask the consumer to wait an hour to verify the transaction.

However, with Visa, MC I pay a flat rate of 1.65% per transactions plus fees.  Visa and Mastercard is very creative with fees, and with Premium Card Fees added on (yes we pay for your Air-miles Vacation), it often works out to over 3% for a credit card transaction.

Bitcoin would crush Visa and MC for ecommerce transactions, if thee three things happen:

1) The Bitcoin currency must stabilized within a volatility range that one would expect with a major currency.
2) A chargeback mechanism needs to be put in place, to provide a form of trust, or else consumers will continue to use their credit card.
3) and of course, we need a bitcoin debit card (I think one already exists).

Now if all this happens, the banks will suddenly lower the Visa/MC merchant fees to reflect a reasonable profit margin, instead of charging extortionate fees, and making huge profits. Banks are charging the same fees they did in the early 70's when credit card transactions had to be processed individually by hand, without computers.  Now it is handled by a interbank payment gateway, that costs the bank, a fraction of a cent per transaction.

The use of plastic money has only been around for the past 50 years.  Bitcoin or it successor will eventually be a new paradigm shift, one that the major banks are terrified of.

[zimmah]

Re-reading I saw he forgot to inflate the total money supply to 50.1*1.025^20 = 81.1 Trillion. But then again he does predict Bitcoin will replace the money supply completely so maybe that compensates.

he's talking about todays dollars, not future dollars.

so 2 million in todays dollars may be 100 million in 2030.