Will Bitcoin reach $ 3,333,333.00 in 2034 ?

[zimmah]

I see Bitcoin like the first popular search engine "AltaVista"

Eventually, Google crushed it, so Bitcoin may not be the eventual winner here.  First to market does not always guarantee success.

With the current flaws in Bitcoin, I see them like AltaVista.  They will shoot up, crash and be replaced with something better.

Right now it takes anywhere from 30 minutes to an hour to confirm a bitcoin transaction.  I need this to get down to less than 10 seconds.

I run several eCommerce sites and I take Visa and Mastercard.  It takes less than 3-4 seconds to verify the transaction.  No way, could I ask the consumer to wait an hour to verify the transaction.

However, with Visa, MC I pay a flat rate of 1.65% per transactions plus fees.  Visa and Mastercard is very creative with fees, and with Premium Card Fees added on (yes we pay for your Air-miles Vacation), it often works out to over 3% for a credit card transaction.

Bitcoin would crush Visa and MC for ecommerce transactions, if thee three things happen:

1) The Bitcoin currency must stabilized within a volatility range that one would expect with a major currency.
2) A chargeback mechanism needs to be put in place, to provide a form of trust, or else consumers will continue to use their credit card.
3) and of course, we need a bitcoin debit card (I think one already exists).

Now if all this happens, the banks will suddenly lower the Visa/MC merchant fees to reflect a reasonable profit margin, instead of charging extortionate fees, and making huge profits. Banks are charging the same fees they did in the early 70's when credit card transactions had to be processed individually by hand, without computers.  Now it is handled by a interbank payment gateway, that costs the bank, a fraction of a cent per transaction.

The use of plastic money has only been around for the past 50 years.  Bitcoin or it successor will eventually be a new paradigm shift, one that the major banks are terrified of.

bitcoin is not altavista and also is it not myspace.

bitcoin will not be replaced by an altcoin, simply because too many industries and persons invested in bitcoin, bitcoin has by far the most support. It's easy to stop using altavista and myspace, but it's much harder to stop bitcoin.

imagine the internet being replaced by another version of the internet, that is not compatible with the old internet, that's what it would be like to replace bitcoin.

[wachtwoord]

Re-reading I saw he forgot to inflate the total money supply to 50.1*1.025^20 = 81.1 Trillion. But then again he does predict Bitcoin will replace the money supply completely so maybe that compensates.

he's talking about todays dollars, not future dollars.

so 2 million in todays dollars may be 100 million in 2030.

He's using a 25% discount rate. Discount rate normally already includes inflation. So he should inflate the total money supply to avoid discounting twice.

[honky1492]

2) A chargeback mechanism needs to be put in place, to provide a form of trust, or else consumers will continue to use their credit card.

Chargeback mechanism is bullshit. Look at PayPal doing chargebacks whenever they want. You can be scammed with this chargeback anytime, and I though stealing money (chargeback) is crime, oh boy I was so wrong!

[samysamy1]

2) A chargeback mechanism needs to be put in place, to provide a form of trust, or else consumers will continue to use their credit card.

Chargeback mechanism is bullshit. Look at PayPal doing chargebacks whenever they want. You can be scammed with this chargeback anytime, and I though stealing money (chargeback) is crime, oh boy I was so wrong!

Isn't escrow another option for this problem, although I'm not sure how safe it is if the seller himself can decide when to release the funds instead of an intermediare.

[vicc]

we all hope so

[freedomno1]

Depends on Fiat inflation and the Currency of Measurement 

[vendetahome]

Unlikely in 20 years, but keeping saved dollars in bank for long is suicide, too big inflation

[abacusideon]

Bitcoin without a doubt will be worth atleast 4 million. That is why I'm going to hold my 0.5BTC until it reaches atleast 1 million. I will be able to sell out for 500,000 and buy my house. Look at the trends, bitcoin is increasing in value 10 fold each year, that means in 2 years each bitcoin will be worth 1 million each. Not long too wait I think.

[Jalockin]

I really doubt that dude.

Besides every time a transfer is made a tiny amount is deducted as transfer fee - in the end the bitcoin will vanish due to transfer fees.

Please correct me if i'm wrong and the fees are not lost in the void.

J.

[luqash3]

bigbits well if you wish to gamble then buy bitcoins with intention of selling at your above quoted price but remember I am saying it gamble which mean you may either win a jackpot or lose all that you invested. If you are willing for lottery then buy bitcoins otherwise invest your hard earn money somewhere else

[Hunterbunter]

I really doubt that dude.

Besides every time a transfer is made a tiny amount is deducted as transfer fee - in the end the bitcoin will vanish due to transfer fees.

Please correct me if i'm wrong and the fees are not lost in the void.

J.

The transaction fees are not lost to the void, they go to miners for solving a block.

They put it back in by spending it / selling it for another currency.

[Jalockin]

I really doubt that dude.

Besides every time a transfer is made a tiny amount is deducted as transfer fee - in the end the bitcoin will vanish due to transfer fees.

Please correct me if i'm wrong and the fees are not lost in the void.

J.

The transaction fees are not lost to the void, they go to miners for solving a block.

They put it back in by spending it / selling it for another currency.

I didn't know that - I just thought they vanished, thanks mate.

[Zenchen]

As long as China Gov unban Bitcoin transaction, the price will Go up quickly

[brodude]

Probably not. I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin was replaced by something else by that time. 

[OC19850520]

As long as China Gov unban Bitcoin transaction, the price will Go up quickly

China is Communistic country, they dont support freedom

[wachtwoord]

As long as China Gov unban Bitcoin transaction, the price will Go up quickly

China is Communistic country, they dont support freedom

No country does. That's the very definition of a country, to restrict freedom.

[mintymark]

I do feel that he has missed one thing out of this calculation.

Old technologies die slowly. The main death happens rapidly, but the old stalwarts continue to use it long after they should. There are still places (I believe where you can send telegrams.) There will still be (a few) people watching Cathode Ray Tubes long after we all switch to flat screen. And although its troublesome to buy them, some still insist on incandescent bulbs, or even candles for a variety of reasons.

So its probably true that bitcoin will never replace 100% of the money supply and I dont think in 20 years much will have been replaced. My estimate (given all the other assumptions) is 10%. Thats opinion of course.
So maybe not 28800  $/BTC but (in round figures)  3000 $/BTC.

So thats my 2 Satoshis!

[Korri]

Has I understand it, bitcoins will become more and more rare as there is no way to compensate the lost wallets, am I right ?

[kolesozw]

Has I understand it, bitcoins will become more and more rare as there is no way to compensate the lost wallets, am I right ?

Yes, lost Bitcoins cannot be used anymore, but there are still a lot of other Bitcoins left to use

[wachtwoord]

Has I understand it, bitcoins will become more and more rare as there is no way to compensate the lost wallets, am I right ?

Sure, but right now 25 BTC are being issued every 10 minutes still so it'll take a while before the number of coins start going down.

Unless you agree with me and just work with a 21M BTC market of Bitcoins (of which ~45% isn't spendable yet) then we're going down constantly. It's impossible to measure how much Bitcoins are 'lost' (unspendable) however except by witness reports and by checking Bitcoin balances that are unspendable in the Blockchain due to faulty custom transaction code.