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Author Topic: The great rally will begin at the next slight drop  (Read 2095 times)
xali
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August 18, 2011, 12:39:12 PM
 #1

A really close look at the charts show that after the huge rally from the all time low it's been dropping very very slowly for 2 days. A huge long term rally is inevitable, but who are we kidding it's always been inevitable ever since the drop from 30. The conference is rather uplifting though, and the all time low a week ago is what it is: an all time low and overall it's been going up from there.

Taking all this into consideration, I think that it will keep going lower very slowly until for whatever reason it goes low very sharply, and then immediate stabilization. The subtle sharp decrease will be a cue for all the people who know that a large rally is going to happen but still haven't bought their share of coins yet (This is the majority I think, as not everyone can so suddenly go all in after the all time low, as the all time low itself indicates an all time loss where everyone involved is poorer than they were. It takes some time to recover enough to be able to buy anything, and it's been enough time now, people are just waiting for an opportunity to get the most money by waiting on the lowest price possible, which is where the aforementioned subtle drop comes in), the subtle sharp decrease will be a cue for the majority of people to buy in which will spark the great rally.

TLDR: Due to the all time low and the prospective bitcoin meeting the rate will definitely increase; however it's been very slowly decreasing for the past 2 days. The all time low indicates an all time loss so people need some time to recover.
Due to the fact that relatively enough time has passed to recover, people are now waiting for the lowest price possible to buy in so in the upcoming days there will be a sharp decrease, possibly subtle, and then slight stabilization, that will be enough for people to believe it is the lowest price they can buy it so they will; which will spark the great rally.
This may or may not happen before the weekend. Will probably happen right before or right after.

Regardless, this is all speculation for this week. By the middle of the next week, the great rally WILL HAVE BEGUN. It's foolish not to think so (remember, going back to the basics of bitcoin, deflation (natural long term increase) is practically hard coded. The 30 high was TOO high so it was being corrected, and now it's too low so it has to be corrected).

Please discuss.

Smiley ;/)
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tanerlorn
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August 18, 2011, 01:19:37 PM
 #2

Your TLDR is longer than the meat of your post.

Also, all time low? ALL TIME LOW? in the past ~3 months you mean...
qwk
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August 18, 2011, 01:53:35 PM
 #3

the all time low itself indicates an all time loss where everyone involved is poorer than they were

I'm not. And i'm quite sure i'm not the only one who actually gained from that drop.

Yeah, well... I'm gonna go build my own blockchain, with blackjack and hookers. In fact, forget the blockchain!
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August 18, 2011, 01:56:49 PM
 #4

the all time low itself indicates an all time loss where everyone involved is poorer than they were

I'm not. And i'm quite sure i'm not the only one who actually gained from that drop.

Yes, I think your original assumption is that poorer or richer is based solely on possession of fiat currencies. When the BTC/USD rate drops, one just gets more BTC, and is consequently richer, not poorer, in terms of bitcoins.
xali
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August 18, 2011, 02:18:22 PM
 #5

Well I'm sure I'm not the only one that ignorantly expected bitcoin to rise slowly forever (well it will in the grand scheme of things though); I bought a bunch at 20 and forgot about them (am still holding, will buy more myself at a slight drop lol).
Anyways another interpretation with the same conclusion is that at the time of the great drop most were not sure if it really was the great drop and that it may go even lower but now people are quite sure that that it's definitely not gonna go that low again. This is based on the general mood of the board, as the number of crazy BUY BUY SELL SELL troll posts have dwindled in the coming days after the drop.

Point is it's gonna go up, it's only a matter of when. And the answer to that is probably when most think they will get the most profit, which will be at the next slight drop. Because most aren't buying bitcoins since if they were, the rally would have started already.

Do most of you agree with the statement that the rally will FOR SURE be well on it's way in the middle of the next week? Very few of you seem to think the meeting will have a negative impact.

Also yea I'm calling it the GREAT DROP now as opposed to "ALL TIME LOW" lolol.

Smiley ;/)
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August 18, 2011, 03:01:53 PM
 #6

It will either go up and down the next time it goes up or down.

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julz
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August 18, 2011, 03:27:47 PM
 #7

It will either go up and down the next time it goes up or down.

^This^
...but possibly faster or slower than we expect.

@electricwings   BM-GtyD5exuDJ2kvEbr41XchkC8x9hPxdFd
Piper67
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August 18, 2011, 03:29:11 PM
 #8

It will either go up and down the next time it goes up or down.

^This^
...but possibly faster or slower than we expect.


19 times out of 20
julz
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August 18, 2011, 03:39:35 PM
 #9

It will either go up and down the next time it goes up or down.

^This^
...but possibly faster or slower than we expect.


19 times out of 20

That's boldly numeric of you..    Sounds like you're bullish on the possibility of some zig-zagging occurring on the charts!

@electricwings   BM-GtyD5exuDJ2kvEbr41XchkC8x9hPxdFd
Piper67
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August 18, 2011, 03:41:14 PM
 #10

It will either go up and down the next time it goes up or down.

^This^
...but possibly faster or slower than we expect.


19 times out of 20

That's boldly numeric of you..    Sounds like you're bullish on the possibility of some zig-zagging occurring on the charts!


It's all right there in the head and shoulders... or the inverted head and shoulders... or the reverse cowgirl  Grin
xali
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August 18, 2011, 03:48:49 PM
 #11

BEHOLD THE TROLLS. please stop derping my thread

Smiley ;/)
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August 18, 2011, 04:38:02 PM
 #12

I don't think the existing 'BelieverDollars' are yet numerous enough to produce some sustained sizeable rally..  and if they are, I don't suspect they'd need some special dippy signal to decide "it's on".  They might just start with a sneaky drift up which gathers momentum.

While I do have a bullish hunch that the long term future of Bitcoin will involve significantly higher valuations..  it *could* be many years or decades away.
There might also be a wide chasm of low prices due to government crackdowns in between now and then.

I'm hopeful however that things like the upcoming conference giving publicity, and the sheer pace of software infrastructure development around bitcoin,
may allow it to 'outrun' serious corporate or government intervention.  

It's entirely possible that relatively sudden scale and popularity will give rise to a range of growing pains.... thefts/outages/losses/slowdowns as systems struggle to cope.
Not just the 3rd party services around bitcoin - but the network and core software itself if growth occurs too fast for the development team to handle. That sort of growth is an 'outside' chance in my mind though.

Anyway.. yes.. I dare to 'expect' an overall rise of a couple of dollars over the next 2 weeks if there is a reasonable amount of positive and interesting media attention arising from the conference.  
(This is despite my previous attempts to spot rough price correlations with various positive and negative news stories - and finding bitcoin charts usually have a way of surprising and confounding)

If there are some really good news stories on major networks  - plus some announcements about software releases (especially mobile related) and/or things like bitcoinATMs being placed in prime spots.. then I'd even dare hope for a 'great rally' of up to about $20.





@electricwings   BM-GtyD5exuDJ2kvEbr41XchkC8x9hPxdFd
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August 18, 2011, 05:44:50 PM
 #13

Quote
A huge long term rally is inevitable.
Why? There's nothing in the fundamentals which should cause it to increase. The original run-up was pure momentum enthusiasm typical of a bubble. That's over.



Since the bubble burst in June, Bitcoin has been in a long, slow slide. Every once in a while, there's a week or two of drama, and the fans start yelling "CRASH" or "RALLY". After the drama, the price has consistently settled a little lower. Here's the last two months:



That's the reality. Almost nobody uses Bitcoins for real transactions, and Bitcoin itself generates no revenue. So it's a zero sum game among speculators. That's a pyramid scheme.   


xali
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August 18, 2011, 06:12:09 PM
 #14

Quote
A huge long term rally is inevitable.
Why? There's nothing in the fundamentals which should cause it to increase. The original run-up was pure momentum enthusiasm typical of a bubble. That's over.

That's the reality. Almost nobody uses Bitcoins for real transactions, and Bitcoin itself generates no revenue. So it's a zero sum game among speculators. That's a pyramid scheme.   

OH LOOK THE TROLLS ARE GETTING MORE SUBTLE. Bitcoins are deflationary, that's a fact. Spend some time on the wiki more.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths#It.27s_a_giant_ponzi_scheme
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_Currency_Supply

Smiley ;/)
proudhon
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August 18, 2011, 06:15:06 PM
 #15

Quote
A huge long term rally is inevitable.
Why? There's nothing in the fundamentals which should cause it to increase. The original run-up was pure momentum enthusiasm typical of a bubble. That's over.

That's the reality. Almost nobody uses Bitcoins for real transactions, and Bitcoin itself generates no revenue. So it's a zero sum game among speculators. That's a pyramid scheme.   

OH LOOK THE TROLLS ARE GETTING MORE SUBTLE. Bitcoins are deflationary, that's a fact. Spend some time on the wiki more.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths#It.27s_a_giant_ponzi_scheme
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_Currency_Supply

Tell that to the vast majority of new buyers over the past 2 months.
xali
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August 18, 2011, 06:17:17 PM
 #16

what do you mean? why would the new buyers need to hear that it's deflationary?

Smiley ;/)
proudhon
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August 18, 2011, 06:29:01 PM
 #17

what do you mean? why would the new buyers need to hear that it's deflationary?

What I mean is, from the perspective of the vast majority of new buyers of bitcoins over the past 2 months, bitcoin is not deflationary.  Their bitcoins are very probably worth less than what they paid for them.  It's certainly the case that at least some people bought bitcoins after the MtGox incident at $17 on the belief that they would soon be worth more than $17.  So, while in theory bitcoin may be, or could be, deflationary, in practical terms its deflationary nature hasn't presented itself to any of those such people.  

Presumably at each successive move downward over the past months some newcomers to bitcoin have bought on the belief that bitcoin is deflationary and their newly purchased bitcoins would soon be worth more than what they paid for them.  Are the new buyers' coins purchased at $30 worth more than what they paid for them?  $25?  $20?  $18?  $16?  $15?  $14?  $13?  Even $12?  

Sure, perhaps some lucky newcomers managed to grab some bitcoins during the relatively brief period we spent below where we are now. But, over the past couple of months or so, very probably many, many more newcomers spent more on their bitcoins than they are presently worth.  Make sense now?

In other words, to the vast majority of newcomers to bitcoin who bought bitcoins sometime during the past couple of months or so, saying that bitcoins are deflationary is probably annoying, since that putative property of bitcoins has yet to materialize for them.
xali
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August 18, 2011, 06:41:51 PM
 #18

It's not some magical "always going to increase no matter what" deflation.

The massive increase to 30 was indeed some sort of bubble and was much higher than natural deflation should have accounted for. The drop from 30, economically speaking was bound to happen simply because it was "correcting" itself. But then it kept on dropping due to the momentum it has, another bubble or something. Now the value is TOO low and it should correct itself the other way.

Maybe the value of bitcoin will simply rapidly go up and down constantly correcting itself, with the overall average price slowly increasing.

Smiley ;/)
Piper67
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August 18, 2011, 06:55:05 PM
 #19

xali, you have the right idea for the long term, but right now Bitcoin is fantastically inflationary, to the tune of 7200 new coins every day. In about eight months (and I might be wrong, so someone who knows more about it should correct me if that's the case), the payout drops by half, to 3600 coins a day.

What is somewhat remarkable is that even at 7200 new coins a day, the value is still holding as well as it is.

Certainly, in the long run, bitcoin will be deflationary. But right now it's far from it.
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August 18, 2011, 07:39:31 PM
 #20

xali, you have the right idea for the long term, but right now Bitcoin is fantastically inflationary, to the tune of 7200 new coins every day. In about eight months (and I might be wrong, so someone who knows more about it should correct me if that's the case), the payout drops by half, to 3600 coins a day.

What is somewhat remarkable is that even at 7200 new coins a day, the value is still holding as well as it is.

Certainly, in the long run, bitcoin will be deflationary. But right now it's far from it.

+1

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