Adoption and/or government clarification on uses, regulations, taxability, etc all impact how BTC will perform this coming year.
Some positive indicators of value increase are:
US Federal Debt ceiling debacle in February.
Overstock.com taking payments in BTC around June.
Indicators that could spark rise or drop(neutral) are:
Goldman Sachs involvement through Michele Burns and circle.com
Indicators that suggest a drop in price:
None that I see at the moment. The news from China and India were pretty bad, but I think they've already done most of the damage that they're going to do.
My prediction(s): Bearish but stable market (around $700-$800) until early March 2014; small to moderate rally in March, new floor around $850/new ceiling around $950. Slightly volatile following March, possible drop back down to $750-$850 range. Huge rally around July 2014 with Overstock.com adoption; price surges back over $1,000/BTC. Stability around $1,000-$1,200 until Holiday season, lots of BTC-accepting businesses do very well on Bitcoin Black Friday. Paper wallets and other Bitcoin-gear given away as Christmas presents, sparking more adoption as it did this year(gox price jumped to $800 on 12/26 after a very stagnant week at $650ish). Around $1,500 per BTC come 1/1/2015.
Very exact price predictions
fwiw, I think having lots of bitcoin ATM machines round the world will really help spread adoption. "Normal" folk just don't want to use online exchanges, they are scared of them. ATM machines are something they can understand, and see physically in front of them.
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