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Author Topic: Pure Speculation Graph  (Read 2538 times)
FlipPro
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August 19, 2011, 07:44:53 PM
 #21

If this doesn't say rally I don't know what does...


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TraderTimm
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August 19, 2011, 10:24:13 PM
 #22

That is the sweetest uptrend channel chart I've ever seen Smiley

Also, we're nearing the end of August. As some may know, I posted about the 'bubble' claims being invalidated if we were above $5 by then. We are certainly a good margin above that now.

Onward and upward, my friends!

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
BitcoinStars.com
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August 19, 2011, 11:58:55 PM
 #23

That is the sweetest uptrend channel chart I've ever seen Smiley

Also, we're nearing the end of August. As some may know, I posted about the 'bubble' claims being invalidated if we were above $5 by then. We are certainly a good margin above that now.

Onward and upward, my friends!

Sounds like someone is feeling bullish  Cool
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August 20, 2011, 12:11:39 AM
 #24

That is the sweetest uptrend channel chart I've ever seen Smiley

Also, we're nearing the end of August. As some may know, I posted about the 'bubble' claims being invalidated if we were above $5 by then. We are certainly a good margin above that now.

Onward and upward, my friends!

Why should I think $5 is the threshold for whether bitcoin was in a bubble or not?  I'm sincerely asking.
Flappy
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August 20, 2011, 04:47:11 AM
 #25

How 'bout this?


That would be acceptable.

One thing to consider though is that there was a paradigm shift where mining became profitable not for speculation but for direct selling. So this graph could be faulty as well.
I all depends on the masses mining on 300Mhash or less if they decide to sell the lower line would have to be placed against the start of exponential rise and the first low at USD 1. In that case resistance could even be at 4.

You may be right.
Lets take a step back and look at the long term for a second.  When you think about the ultimate success or failure of bitcoin, I feel the question is more fundamental than that.

A) Can bitcoin attract enough buyers with deep pockets to continue the trend.
or
B) Can bitcoin achieve a sufficient level of adoption as a currency.

I feel the answer to (A) is no.  I don't think who is mining makes much difference in the long run.  The rate at which bitcoins are mined remains constant.  And hoarding will never create a healthy bitcoin economy.  For that reason I'd rather see thousands of plebes mining (and spending their coins) than a few large speculative operations hoarding.

The answer to (B) depends on entrepreneurial vendors in conjunction with the developer community using bitcoin (and marketing it) to sell products.

Right now bitcoin is still just an investment vehicle.  But I think the world financial climate is certainly ripe for (B).
TraderTimm
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August 20, 2011, 06:04:15 PM
 #26


Why should I think $5 is the threshold for whether bitcoin was in a bubble or not?  I'm sincerely asking.

Sure, in my post here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=26117.0

I talk about how bubbles have symmetry, where you take the buildup from the base to their peak, project forward in time and can get an idea of where they end.

Based on that, the end of the bitcoin bubble would have to be the end of August, with a price around $5.00, plus or minus a small percentage.

Because we are nearing that time, and the price hasn't lapsed to $5, I conclude we are not in a bubble, and things can progress normally.

That's it.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
proudhon
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August 20, 2011, 08:42:03 PM
 #27


Why should I think $5 is the threshold for whether bitcoin was in a bubble or not?  I'm sincerely asking.

Sure, in my post here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=26117.0

I talk about how bubbles have symmetry, where you take the buildup from the base to their peak, project forward in time and can get an idea of where they end.

Based on that, the end of the bitcoin bubble would have to be the end of August, with a price around $5.00, plus or minus a small percentage.

Because we are nearing that time, and the price hasn't lapsed to $5, I conclude we are not in a bubble, and things can progress normally.

That's it.

I missed that thread.  Interesting analysis.  Thanks for putting that together.
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