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Author Topic: How to indicate, which cryptocoin will "make it"?  (Read 3055 times)
TheSmo (OP)
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December 22, 2013, 10:37:49 PM
 #1

Hi all,

how do you guys decide, which coins you mine or where you invest in (long-term)?`

You can't check, what makes a lot noise in this board alone, so what other resources do you use? Or what indicators do you think help? E.G. I can check Google Trends, but that works only, if a coin is already pretty big (like DOGE in a short time).

But what other factors can I take in my sight? For example I check the description and think about "will someone else be impressed by this text". I believe, if the coin has nothing in the description that makes a difference plus it's not unique in it's writing/story telling, then I personally believe, it will not work.

But what you guys think? Are USPs important or is it more important that the technique behind is better than BTC? If so, what are the indicators? What other things do you think will decide about a win or loss for a coin?
Pythonideus
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December 22, 2013, 10:40:25 PM
 #2

Step 1: Mine new coins on day 1

Step 2: Wait for an exchange to add it

Step 3: Dump it like you just ate Chipotle

Step 4: HuhHuhHuh

Step 5: Profit
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December 22, 2013, 10:44:54 PM
 #3

Shouldn't the popularity of usage also be a prerequisite for a coin's success? Or is like more big guns can back a coin more popular it gets and then it is pumped and dumped? I am sure there is a lot of shady stuff going on in the back round as well as legit indicators.
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December 23, 2013, 12:44:43 AM
 #4

Most coins launched lately are pretty much pump and dump.
Popularity has a great influence on a coin, aswell as the developers and the community around it.
Since Doge was mentioned here before, its a fun coin i didnt expect it to make it but popularity won it over. Does it have a bright future? We dunno, sofar it has been pumped and dumped but its not over yet, it had alot of hype and still seems used. It could very well stay the coin of choice for the young crowds..

The way i decide if i like a coin or not:
Whats the premine (if any), heavy premine means i stay away from it. Small amounts are acceptable for bounties/giveaways to promote the coin. But theres coins that overdo it and just become unworthy.
Just the name of a coin can be important already, a good name helps in popularity which can result in adaption and a possible future for it.
Does it have anything new to offer? Or is it just a clone. Most things have been done already so if your just cloning something why use that coin instead of established coins that offer the same?
Who is making it, are the dev(s) dedicated. Devs are the driving force behind the coin, community are the ones supporting them but they aint the driving force behind it.
And finally the specs of it (block time/amount/transaction times) matter too ofc.

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December 23, 2013, 12:50:52 AM
 #5

I think a few CPU and GPU coins will make it, but it is very hard to say which.
Primecoin, litecoin and peer coin look like they are here for the long run, quark seems the favourite of the new CPU only coins, despite it's fast mining. The lack of future incentive to mine might be an issue though.

One or two other CPU coins could succeed in my opinion. No idea which though unfortunately.  I think the name of the coin is very important, can you imagine a coin with a "funny" name actually being globally used?
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December 23, 2013, 01:53:18 AM
 #6

Look for a coin with innovation that builds upon btc, not copies it.

-Litecoin is still a contender as it provides great diversification of hash power.
-Hybrid coins that combine POW and POS are interesting as they distribute coins with POW and get rid of wasted computer cycles by switching to POS later on.
-Protoshares, Bitshares, and Keyhotee can really change things if launched successfully and in a timely manner.
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December 23, 2013, 03:41:14 AM
 #7

Just unbelievable that people don't look at supply and demand in determining the long term prospects of a coin.


Unbelieveable!


One metric,  learn it well... network hash rate.  That and miner subsidy rate is all that realy counts.

 
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TheSmo (OP)
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December 23, 2013, 02:40:35 PM
 #8

I am surprised that some of you say, the hash rate is key to success... why?

Are you talking about mining time or are you talking about the time to process a deal? Mining time is, in my opinion, not relevant for the long term success of a coin, processing time is (imo).
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December 23, 2013, 02:53:27 PM
 #9

I think Netcoin will use advantage of its global name in the long term and when mining it becomes difficult enough, it'll rise and be in top 5.
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December 23, 2013, 03:05:57 PM
 #10

It all depends. It's called speculation for a reason, there is no definite answer anyone can give you because no one can see into the future, you just have to try and make a good guess and hope you're right.
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December 23, 2013, 03:09:23 PM
 #11

Look at the hashing power and difficulty. If less than half of the hardware in the world that is capable of mining it is mining it then it is way too vulnerable, so basically for each type of non merged mined hashing (SHA, scrypt, prime numbers etc) check out the one that has more than half of the hashing power, for starters.

For example primecoin and protoshares both use CPU mining, so which of them has more than half of the world's CPU power mining them?

Ooops, neither. CPU is a really crappy choice because it is unlikely that as much as half of the world's CPU power is even mining at all, let alone all mining the same coin.

So forget all the ones that are CPU-mined, until they come up with ASICs to do their mining they are trainwrecks waiting to happen.

(Waiting to become valuable enough to be worth wrecking, so I guess if you are only looking for crappy little penny-stock type toys they are fine, but if you are interested in coins worth $300,000 or more per coin forget all the CPU and GPU mining crap, get ASICs deployed as soon as possible or just assume the great chain robbery will happen as soon as it is profitable for the robbers to make it happen.)

So hmm I guess we are down to bitcoin and maybe a few of the coins merged mined with bitcoin (those that have more than half as much hashpower/difficulty as bitcoin)...

Oh proof of stake? Last I heard is still doesn't work without proof of work, plus, the actual proof of stake itself has a man-in-the-middle, much like Solidcoin, it seems. A gang is already sitting there with their hands on the wreck-switch just waiting for the right time to pull a heist...

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December 23, 2013, 09:19:33 PM
 #12



                     MARKETING.
                    =========



Caveat emptor - let the buyer beware!


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December 27, 2013, 06:46:16 PM
 #13

Look at the hashing power and difficulty. If less than half of the hardware in the world that is capable of mining it is mining it then it is way too vulnerable, so basically for each type of non merged mined hashing (SHA, scrypt, prime numbers etc) check out the one that has more than half of the hashing power, for starters.

For example primecoin and protoshares both use CPU mining, so which of them has more than half of the world's CPU power mining them?

Ooops, neither. CPU is a really crappy choice because it is unlikely that as much as half of the world's CPU power is even mining at all, let alone all mining the same coin.

So forget all the ones that are CPU-mined, until they come up with ASICs to do their mining they are trainwrecks waiting to happen.

(Waiting to become valuable enough to be worth wrecking, so I guess if you are only looking for crappy little penny-stock type toys they are fine, but if you are interested in coins worth $300,000 or more per coin forget all the CPU and GPU mining crap, get ASICs deployed as soon as possible or just assume the great chain robbery will happen as soon as it is profitable for the robbers to make it happen.)

So hmm I guess we are down to bitcoin and maybe a few of the coins merged mined with bitcoin (those that have more than half as much hashpower/difficulty as bitcoin)...

Oh proof of stake? Last I heard is still doesn't work without proof of work, plus, the actual proof of stake itself has a man-in-the-middle, much like Solidcoin, it seems. A gang is already sitting there with their hands on the wreck-switch just waiting for the right time to pull a heist...

-MarkM-



I really can't think of how a pure 'proof of stake' system can secure its block chain.   The calculations of a 'proof of stake' system can always be easily replicated.  So how does such a system ensure that it has the 'longest block chain'?

 
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December 27, 2013, 06:52:25 PM
 #14



                     MARKETING.
                    =========



Caveat emptor - let the buyer beware!





+1

the technical details & implementation will follow VERY shortly after
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December 27, 2013, 06:54:09 PM
 #15



                     MARKETING.
                    =========



Caveat emptor - let the buyer beware!





+1

the technical details & implementation will follow VERY shortly after

I've got this idea for a coin. It'll have some difficulty, and name, and some block reward. It will have a name like coin something, or something coin. You in? 10 trillion coin bounty to whoever does the coin. Then sends me 100 trillion so I can pay them.

BTC - 14kYyhhWZwSJFHAjNTtyhRVSu157nE92gF
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let's make a deal.


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December 27, 2013, 06:55:40 PM
 #16

Most coins launched lately are pretty much pump and dump.
------- cut thread here -----

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December 28, 2013, 04:44:05 AM
 #17

I think a few CPU and GPU coins will make it, but it is very hard to say which.
Primecoin, litecoin and peer coin look like they are here for the long run, quark seems the favourite of the new CPU only coins, despite it's fast mining. The lack of future incentive to mine might be an issue though.

One or two other CPU coins could succeed in my opinion. No idea which though unfortunately.  I think the name of the coin is very important, can you imagine a coin with a "funny" name actually being globally used?

The name is money.

Call it moola, bread, dough, quid, quid pro quo, whatever, the name is not important because anyone can call it anything they like.

You could make a Bitcoin client that calls millibitcoins "Moola" or "Money" and splashes "The Internet Money" all over its "creatives" (art, ads, etc), "TIM" for short, who cares, as long as what the name refers to is actually, under the hood, real bitcoins it will work fine and people can call it whatever they like.

Or put a "worldcoin" skin on the client, or a cat or dog or pony-show (my little pony, anyone?) and it will still work.

Disney could sell Bitcoin clients with Mickey Mouse and/or Donald Duck and/or Scrooge McDuck plastered all over it and call microbitcoins Duckcoins, it does not matter, it is just another brand of client for the same thing: money.

Or they could make a Princess Points client that calls satoshis or microbitcoins or millibitcoins Princess Points. Whatever.

-MarkM-

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December 28, 2013, 06:22:47 AM
Last edit: December 28, 2013, 07:46:32 AM by Slingshot
 #18

Look at the hashing power and difficulty. If less than half of the hardware in the world that is capable of mining it is mining it then it is way too vulnerable, so basically for each type of non merged mined hashing (SHA, scrypt, prime numbers etc) check out the one that has more than half of the hashing power, for starters.

For example primecoin and protoshares both use CPU mining, so which of them has more than half of the world's CPU power mining them?

Ooops, neither. CPU is a really crappy choice because it is unlikely that as much as half of the world's CPU power is even mining at all, let alone all mining the same coin.

So forget all the ones that are CPU-mined, until they come up with ASICs to do their mining they are trainwrecks waiting to happen.

(Waiting to become valuable enough to be worth wrecking, so I guess if you are only looking for crappy little penny-stock type toys they are fine, but if you are interested in coins worth $300,000 or more per coin forget all the CPU and GPU mining crap, get ASICs deployed as soon as possible or just assume the great chain robbery will happen as soon as it is profitable for the robbers to make it happen.)

So hmm I guess we are down to bitcoin and maybe a few of the coins merged mined with bitcoin (those that have more than half as much hashpower/difficulty as bitcoin)...

Oh proof of stake? Last I heard is still doesn't work without proof of work, plus, the actual proof of stake itself has a man-in-the-middle, much like Solidcoin, it seems. A gang is already sitting there with their hands on the wreck-switch just waiting for the right time to pull a heist...

-MarkM-



 To MarkM,

 With all due respect:

 Would you care to explain to the rest of us exactly how for example: CPU mined  Securecoin and Quark are allegedly  'train-wrecks waiting to happen'Huh And of course Primecoin too since it's not quite as well secured against attack exploits as the first two mentioned CPU mined Crypto (Securecoin and Quark).  

I say BULLSHIT to this claim of MarkM's. And I am requesting that you explain yourself here!
 I will also PM you if you don't soon respond here in this tread. I for one desire answers and I am quite serious about getting some here, just in case your really in the know about something(s) that no one else is.

 MarkM this is serious stuff your claiming here.

 These FUD Posts like MarkM's have gone way too far, and if you care to witness even more Bit-Shit Shock & Awe well all you have to do now is sit back and watch with horror cause your types are behaving as badly as the Evil Banksters have all along, and fully deserve some real Shock & Awe. Don't fret, there's much more Blow-back coming your way unless you can convince us your not full of bit-shit! Myself and the rest here are sick and tired of this greed gone insane by a few Bitcoin Exclusive Types. If you clowns want a war of words you might want to fast reconsider that notion because the result is going to harm yourselves much more than anyone else. I can assure you of that much, and much more.

 Also MarkM, please explain how the GPU mined coins are so apt to have these same problems when other expert developers don't concur with your statements at all. In fact quite the opposite as I recall learning, since now Bit-shit (Bitcoin) is growing ever more Centralized, and of course heading in exactly the opposite direction of what Satoshi intended for.

 And after all since Satoshi himself owns a full 8% of all Bit-shit coins in existence and are worth near a Billion dollars already, and it would seem the biggest Insta-Mine in all history is Bit-shit (Bitcoin). And by a very, very wide margin I must add!

 And all it takes to crash his very own masterpiece is for Satoshi to dump just a small fraction of his coins to possibly fix what has gone so terribly wrong with what I now refer to as Bit-shit (btc), but only because of your own misdeeds MarkM, (your FUD Post here) and because of many other FUD Posts from these other clowns that suddenly got lucky. And are obviously overcome by greed and fraud in this 2nd Gilded Age of Greed & Fraud. A term I coined long ago btw.

  I must add it's past time to again go on the offensive. Brace for sudden impact. Blow-back as they say is a real Bitch! And going forward it's Bit-shit that is directly in the line of fire from the most powerful forces to ever walk this earth. Might want to change your tactics MarkM and collaborators. Your side needs all the friends it can muster. Otherwise no matter what the current King of Crypto wont go anywhere near as far as it possibly could. These are merely sage words to consider and reflect on there.

BTW MarkM it's Bitcoin that is most vulnerable of all to a 51% attack, and by an extremely wide margin since these ASIC warehouse mining centers came on line, and all it takes now is the coordination of a few of them with just a couple of giant and vastly over-centralized mining collectives (mega sized pools) to fully and completely attack and crush Bitcoin. But then why would any of them care to do that? Or is that not all precisely correct MarkM? Of course MarkM must know all about that though?

 And MarkM? You claim others, or maybe yourself are just laying in wait for it to be 'profitable enough' to attack these other cryptos. Well that's great! Now the Fed's, Interpol and the Russian FSB, and other global Intel and law enforcement agencies know exactly maybe to whom to home in on should that ever happen. Gee, it must be terrifying to think one can be disappeared and never as much as be allowed an attorney, much less see the light of any courtroom all for being so very stupid enough to babble pure bullshit and nonsense, and then threaten to attack others assets in the light of a chat-room being constantly monitored by all those just mentioned and more!


 MarkM: Quote: "Look at the hashing power and difficulty. If less than half of the hardware in the world that is capable of mining it is mining it then it is way too vulnerable"

 What does that even mean? What are you implying? Even Bitcoin was first only mined by CPU only. Then after further development along came GPU mining. And finally ASIC.


 As of now both Securecoin and Quark are mighty resistant to any and all ASIC attacks today and for the foreseeable future. Period. And much more resistant than any other Crypto, bar NONE. Period. And by enormous real world margins I must add.

 Much the same but to lesser degree are all Scrypt type coins. Their all extremely ASIC Resistant to attacks. Thus vastly superior to Bit-shit (Bitcoin, lol) and all other mere PoW type Crypto-coins that each passing day grow ever more prone to ever more centralization and 51% attacks.

 And all we have to do is look around and see that there are zero ASIC Scrypt mining rigs anywhere to know that's a fact about Scrypt Type coins. And that is extremely likely to stay that way for more than plenty long enough time to mine plenty enough to make at least the attacks themselves impossible in the real world since mining Scrypt just keeps growing and growing ever more DECENTRALIZED as time passes. But you didn't touch that thought either MarkM.

 Much less the overwhelmingly superior Scrypt Pow/PoS hybrid crypto's already on scene, which are of course vastly more secure against any and all attacks than any mere PoW Only SHA-256 type crypto can ever be, plus even more secure than mere PoW Scrypt coins too. But you didn't mention any of that either did you MarkM?

 MarkM: Your belief appears on the surface to be entirely self serving FUD, and without merit.[/b] Yet I see here you are indeed an early adopter? And have been around these parts far longer than almost anyone else? So I have to give credit there that maybe your on to something that others would really like to much better understand? Is that true? Your on to something no one else yet understands? Am I completely mistaken and wrong? And your correct?

 As for 51% attacks your statements appear as complete FUD, unless you know something we don't, and all the other developers don't.
 

 Hybrid PoW/PoS crypto types are vastly superior to the PoW only types. With PoS tossed in suddenly any 51% attacks requires the attacker to first acquire 51% of the coins themselves.[/b] But you didn't care to attack that notion either. Instead just vague statements without any elaboration. Seems like FEAR is getting the best of MarkM ? Or is this merely pure FUD in the face of shameless greed gone wild?

 Or does MarkM really know something that no one else seemingly does and doesn't care to explain in detail to us mere mortals?


 So MarkM, do you care to share your vastly superior intellect with the rest of us as to why you stated what you did? Or are you merely full of FUD?

 And by all means share all the reasoning behind your claims?

 Or is this exactly what my instincts tell me it is (FUD)?

 Plus likely your extreme fears that the founding PoW Crypto types ares going to face a tough future against vastly superior Crypto Types that have already arrived on scene? After all they took everything good about Bitcoin and made themselves even better. But then that's the exact way technology works isn't it MarkM?



Caveat emptor - let the buyer beware!
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December 28, 2013, 06:41:24 AM
 #19

Here are a few things I look at:

1) is it innovative? What new features does it offer? Will those new features offer a big advantage over previous altcoin features?

2) is it gaining popularity? Is that popularity mostly among newbies are senior members?  Have anyone specified why it will do better than the rest with good reasoning?

3) what separates it from the rest? Some solid feature, or just a meme (IE dogecoin)?

4) is the developer active and improving features, performance and innovation daily?

5) how is the community reacting? If it is just a bunch of newbies jumping on a bandwagon, the coin will be worthless in no time. If there are legitimate reasons for the community acting positively, it may be worth your interest.

Everyone wants to make a quick dime, myself included. But if you really read into these things sometimes, ypu may find the value that patience might have in your investments.

Don't gete wrong, I love to spend a few bucks on something that might turn into a few hundred or thousand bucks overnight. But you have to obtain some what of a long view in these things, and acknowledge the guys that are revolutionizing crypto currency anday get you rich in a few years.

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December 28, 2013, 06:48:17 AM
 #20

Bitcoin is only now starting to become reasonably secure, because it is starting to deploy ASICs.

Until Bitcoin deployed ASICs, it was vulnerable to any government, corporation, terrorist group etc willing to create such ASICs with which to attack Bitcoin.

Being hard to make ASICs for, such as various altcoins attempt to do, does indeed make it harder for attackers to produce such ASICs.

But it also makes it harder for defenders to do so.

Until they do deploy ASICs to secure their blockchains, they are vulnerable not merely to all the general purpose computing equipment such as CPUs GPUs and FPGAs that could at any time turn against them or be hired/rented to use against them but also to any group that chooses to create special purpose ASICs suitable for attacking with.

So the sooner litecoin or doge or whatever is going to turn out to be "the" secure scrypt coin - the one that has over half of the scrypt hashing power in the world defending it - gets its own dedicated ASICs deployed the better for its chances of becoming a serious player.

The rest will hopefully change their hashing method to something only they have ASICs designed and deployed for.

-MarkM-

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