Bearish Bitfinex Sentiment Index almost 1:2

[DieJohnny]

In which direction does the market need to move in order to scalp the most people of which this indicator is based on?

I would bet in that direction.

It reminds me of starfish. *

Ahhhhh, the starfish.  Please let this be another starfish.
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I'm glad someone in this thread remembers the starfish!
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what is the starfish, please tell

[1715300604]

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[accord01]

wouldnt snowball cause spike downward if more positions are going long?

[yogi]

wouldnt snowball cause spike downward if more positions are going long?

Yes, but everyone is going short.

[btcdrak]

wouldnt snowball cause spike downward if more positions are going long?

Yes, but everyone is going short.

I would also like to point out that Bitfinex contributes significantly to Bitstamp's daily volume. As of writing Bitstamp has had 24hr vol of 11079BTC, and Bitfinex contributed 4475BTC of that. Something significant is about to happen.

[accord01]

makes no sense why sentiment is bearish if 11m usd is lent out compared to 4000btc

[yogi]

makes no sense why sentiment is bearish if 11m usd is lent out compared to 4000btc

I think this indicator is based on the volume of loans per day and not the total lent.

[freebird]

If most people have gone short but the price has been holding steady, I'd say that's bullish. If it starts going up, there could be a short squeeze.

[freebird]

If most people have gone short but the price has been holding steady, I'd say that's bullish. If it starts going up, there could be a short squeeze.

Someone is bound to get squeezed. The question is who.

History tells me not to short bitcoins, but that doesn't mean it will hold true forever.

Well, if most people are already betting on the short side, that means there are fewer possible new short positions to be taken, and there are more people than usual who are eventually going to have to cover their shorts. I read this as evidence that we've already put in the bottom... but of course I could be wrong.

[spooderman]

ermaaged. teh red lien es biger tahn teh grin lien. slel oll teh bticoins!

[btcdrak]

Holy cow, it's really become 2:1 now:

2:1 - Very Bearish
BSI ratio is 33.16 : 66.84

[yogi]

Looks like it's heading back over $700. If I was one of the short sellers on Bitfinex, I'd be starting to sweat a bit now.

[freebird]

Looks like it's heading back over $700. If I was one of the short sellers on Bitfinex, I'd be starting to sweat a bit now.

Exactly. All these shorts are going to have to cover eventually, and when that happens, the price could go up VERY fast. There's tons of bid depth and very little ask depth on Gox and Stamp. For example, only 15k coins have to be bought to get back to $1,000 on Gox, but it would take about 23k coins sold to get below $500.

I don't know why so many people are short, but I have a feeling a lot of them are going to get burned.

[yogi]

There's tons of bid depth...

Yeah, I noticed that the number of dollars on the gox order-book is at an all time high.

[thezerg]

Holy cow, it's really become 2:1 now:

2:1 - Very Bearish
BSI ratio is 33.16 : 66.84

I think that the situation here is much more complex than you and BitFinex give it credit for.  There is both the demand for BTC loans (bear) AND the people filling those loans (bull) to think about.  Why would someone fill a loan at something near 0% interest?  To provide BTC on the ASK side without actually selling any.  I.E. to keep the BTC price down...

Looks like it's heading back over $700. If I was one of the short sellers on Bitfinex, I'd be starting to sweat a bit now.

I can't tell if people are getting liquidated, but I can provide one data point which is that some BTC loans are closing pre-term while USD loans remain outstanding...

[Voodah]

I haven't looked deeply into Bitfinex..

Can all of these positions default?

What protections are there in place?

EDIT: this sounds like a mess waiting to happen...

[yogi]

I haven't looked deeply into Bitfinex..

Can all of these positions default?

What protections are there in place?

EDIT: this sounds like a mess waiting to happen...

Don't worry, Bitfinex only allows a small ratlio and so price would have to go a lot higher before people start getting liquidated.

[Voodah]

I haven't looked deeply into Bitfinex..

Can all of these positions default?

What protections are there in place?

EDIT: this sounds like a mess waiting to happen...

Don't worry, Bitfinex only allows a small ratlio and so price would have to go a lot higher before people start getting liquidated.

I'm sure no banker ever said something along those lines.. but ok, if you say so..

What's the max ratio?

[yogi]

I'm sure no banker ever said something along those lines.. but ok, if you say so..

What's the max ratio?

I belive currently the max is only two to one.

[btcdrak]

There is little to no risk because all loans are secured.

[nrd525]

It is very baffling how the long interest rate is so high, the market sentiment is bearish, and the amount of longs (loaned USD) keeps increasing.

Unless this interest in US loans comes from people day trading the oscillations?  The market was oscillating pretty well though it has since calmed down.