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Author Topic: Silver shot up.  (Read 5201 times)
YoYa
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August 20, 2011, 10:07:25 PM
 #21

Yeah I'm a bit disappointed I cashed out a big chunk of my silver bullion a month or two back...

Don't worry, it will turn down hard soon

Why do you think this will happen? Only because of charting or do you have analize fundamentals as well (not judging just curious)?
It's because of two effects:

1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse.

2) The charts are supporting the Silver decline. The last 2 months of advance is choppy and is best interpreted by a upward correction, which will be followed by a large decline below 30 $ in a swift move. Secondly, Silver is underperforming Gold, which is a leading indicator for most of the financial markets. The Silver / Gold ratio is down hard since spring 2011.

When would I be wrong?
Only if Silver makes a new high above 50$. But even if this happens, the crash is just postponed and Silver prices will eventually come back below 10 $ in the next 2-5 years.


Just to ask, what metals are you bullish on? Also have you looked at rare earths?
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August 20, 2011, 10:13:33 PM
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August 20, 2011, 10:20:40 PM
 #23

Yeah I'm a bit disappointed I cashed out a big chunk of my silver bullion a month or two back...

Don't worry, it will turn down hard soon

Why do you think this will happen? Only because of charting or do you have analize fundamentals as well (not judging just curious)?
It's because of two effects:

1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse.

2) The charts are supporting the Silver decline. The last 2 months of advance is choppy and is best interpreted by a upward correction, which will be followed by a large decline below 30 $ in a swift move. Secondly, Silver is underperforming Gold, which is a leading indicator for most of the financial markets. The Silver / Gold ratio is down hard since spring 2011.

When would I be wrong?
Only if Silver makes a new high above 50$. But even if this happens, the crash is just postponed and Silver prices will eventually come back below 10 $ in the next 2-5 years.


Just to ask, what metals are you bullish on? Also have you looked at rare earths?

The only 3 metals I am bullish is
1) physical Gold which one should own for sure now (i.e. 20%), and buy more i.e when the big correction comes (Gold is probably topping in the next 2 weeks)
2) Uranium (but this is in my p.o.v unethical as it is related to wars, so I dont do it) EDIT: Also Uranium may have further room to the downside until it gets really nasty in the global economy
3) Bitcoins :-) when it is on a metal USB stick :-)

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August 20, 2011, 10:26:12 PM
 #24

Just to ask, what metals are you bullish on? Also have you looked at rare earths?

I think rare earth miners will rise much in the long term, when nuclear energy based on thorium becomes a reality.
Uranium is needed to initiate the chain reaction, so it may rise too, and probably is very cheap today because of the japanese disaster.
See this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3rL08J7fDA

He says that thorium is largely produced as a by-product of rare earths but there's no demand for it.

2 different forms of free-money: Freicoin (free of basic interest because it's perishable), Mutual credit (no interest because it's abundant)
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August 20, 2011, 10:28:03 PM
 #25

Just to ask, what metals are you bullish on? Also have you looked at rare earths?

I think rare earth miners will rise much in the long term, when nuclear energy based on thorium becomes a reality.
Uranium is needed to initiate the chain reaction, so it may rise too, and probably is very cheap today because of the japanese disaster.
See this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3rL08J7fDA

He says that thorium is largely produced as a by-product of rare earths but there's no demand for it.


Thorium. Interesting. Where and how do you buy Thorium?

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YoYa
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August 20, 2011, 10:29:06 PM
 #26


The only 3 metals I am bullish is
1) physical Gold which one should own for sure now (i.e. 20%), and buy more i.e when the big correction comes (Gold is probably topping in the next 2 weeks)
2) Uranium (but this is in my p.o.v unethical as it is related to wars, so I dont do it)
3) Bitcoins :-) when it is on a metal USB stick :-)


Hehe, forgot to mention, but you seem to have hit the nail on the head with regard to the swiss franc last time we talked.

Problem with gold is we don't know how long to wait for the correction, and I'm already in with bitcoin, so that leaves me wondering where the safe haven is, not to mention growth for the future. I've been reading up on REE's, and I think there is a future there, just this becomes less certain should there be a fall in industrial output.

The ethics of Uranium could be questioned, as depleted uranium is a byproduct of peaceful production for power, but then again I wouldn't be dying to get in to it myself, same goes for oil, sadly gold doesn't have clean hand's either, but it's not as bad.

Suppose in that light, bitcoin is pretty fuckin awesome, tho the first bitcoin war will change this :p
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August 20, 2011, 10:32:14 PM
 #27

Thorium. Interesting. Where and how do you buy Thorium?

I didn't say to buy thorium. It seems very abundant compared to the energy it contains. The bigger reserves are in australia, us, india and then china if I remember it well. You should buy rare earth miners in those countries if you want to get the thorium.

EDIT: By the way, thorium is far more clean than uranium and its by-products (unlike plutonium) aren't suitable for war. That's why the plutonium way was researched first.

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August 20, 2011, 10:34:20 PM
 #28

1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse.

It has been true until now that when there has been a downturn investors have cashed out into dollars. But at some point it might not be the case and investors could start cashing out into precious metals. Im always checking the price of gold and silver when the stock markets crash. If they keep going in opposite directions it means the dollar is fucked. I dont think it will happen now, but its very possible at some point during this crisis.
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August 21, 2011, 05:24:38 PM
 #29

1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse.

It has been true until now that when there has been a downturn investors have cashed out into dollars. But at some point it might not be the case and investors could start cashing out into precious metals. Im always checking the price of gold and silver when the stock markets crash. If they keep going in opposite directions it means the dollar is fucked. I dont think it will happen now, but its very possible at some point during this crisis.

Agree with your theory that exactly this will happen. But before, a significant precious metal correction and dollar rally is due. Watch USDCHF as leading currency indicator. It is up 10% from the low 10d ago. As long as USDCHF is above this 0.7062 $  low, a big rally of the USD is likely.

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August 21, 2011, 05:44:34 PM
 #30

You scaremongers are cute when you're desperate.  Grin 

hurrdurr silver is only a industrial metal and will crash.... I hear it every time, nevermind the long-term trend  Cheesy

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August 21, 2011, 06:22:09 PM
 #31

But before, a significant precious metal correction and dollar rally is due. Watch USDCHF as leading currency indicator. It is up 10% from the low 10d ago. As long as USDCHF is above this 0.7062 $  low, a big rally of the USD is likely.

According to technical analysis, perhaps. What about fundamentals? S3052 - correct me if I'm wrong but your analysis that suggests gold will drop below $1500 seems to be based on price chart indicators. Price action and analysis thereof can be deceptive; precious metals are not equities.

As can be seen below, the usual big short-sellers that include the bullion banks (JP Morgan, et al.) have been throwing everything at the precious metals, yet gold continues to move higher. How much pain they can endure remains to be seen but the more capital flows into gold and overwhelms the selling, the greater the likelihood of an enormous bout of short-covering.



Of further note, volume has been decreasing while physical gold demand has been rising. That can be interpreted as the commercials' refusal to supply large quantities of selling volume. If the buying does not abate, there will be additional margin increases or government interventions attempting to stymie demand; otherwise, uncontrollable price rise continues.

Also, should the dollar remain at its current valuation or even increase, interest rates must rise as well because return expectations are pressuring the rates into negative return territory. The deflation you expect would occur then. In other words, QE3 is imminent unless Obama suddenly grew a spine. The USD will drop below .72 as Jim Sinclair has suggested for many years.

Silver is experiencing the same conditions as above, only with a delayed inflow of capital. Just as large sellers can hit the precious metals in sequence to drag the others down, capital inflow into the main PM stalwart (gold) eventually attracts flow into silver (more so than others) which slingshots the relative gold increase (being a smaller market and more volatile based on large capital shifts). This is plain to see by tracking the gold-silver ratio, volume and open interest alongside price.

What we are witnessing here is almost guaranteed to be yet another case of a pump & dump in the PMs, just at a much grander scale. First, demand must taper off; with it increasing, that point can only be significantly higher than the current price level. The USD will certainly experience a rally and gold will definitely be hit hard, but from a much lower USD and a much higher gold price than at present.

Again, look at more than price action; the world is not made up squiggly lines on charts.
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August 22, 2011, 03:01:25 PM
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1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse.
...
Only if Silver makes a new high above 50$. But even if this happens, the crash is just postponed and Silver prices will eventually come back below 10 $ in the next 2-5 years.


Does silver correlate with the industry or with gold lately?

I regard SILVER as the exit from EUR and USD Smiley

Below 10$? Do I smell another bet? I bet 1 BTC silver won't go below 20$ in the next 2 years!  Cool
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August 22, 2011, 06:11:31 PM
 #33

lol shit ill bet a bitcoin that by the end of the two years it will double! 1000% in 10 years doesnt lie man. also. crack pipes kill. Smiley jaaay kaaaay

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August 22, 2011, 07:16:08 PM
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1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse.
...
Only if Silver makes a new high above 50$. But even if this happens, the crash is just postponed and Silver prices will eventually come back below 10 $ in the next 2-5 years.


Does silver correlate with the industry or with gold lately?

I regard SILVER as the exit from EUR and USD Smiley

Below 10$? Do I smell another bet? I bet 1 BTC silver won't go below 20$ in the next 2 years!  Cool


Deal. I bet with you 1 BTC.

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August 22, 2011, 07:41:04 PM
 #35

I'd bet a million bitcoins silver wont go below $20 in the next two years but I don't have a million bitcoins.

I don't know why people say the fundamentals are bearish for silver. Seems to me that silver is too cheap and their are some supply issues as a result. There is backwardation in the futures markets which suggests that those who would purchase silver futures contracts are now being hesitant because of worries about defaults. Too many futures contracts, too little silver?

Silver has industrial use in high tech applications which show promise on the industrial demand side. Many uses are in the growing high tech markets like such as with solar panels. It's a very useful metal and I'm sure there are many new uses for it to come.

And investors see silver as a hedge against inflation, similar to gold.

Where are the issues with the fundamentals?

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August 22, 2011, 08:49:30 PM
 #36

I'd bet a million bitcoins silver wont go below $20 in the next two years but I don't have a million bitcoins.

So, put your money where your mouth is. What about betting 10 BTC or 50 BTC. I am sure you have at least 10 BTC, or 50 BTC.

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August 22, 2011, 09:20:17 PM
 #37

Actually no. I think I have 0.21btc. Not worth the effort.

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August 23, 2011, 08:21:09 PM
 #38

ok. I fully understand. no worries

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August 23, 2011, 09:12:57 PM
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[/quote]
It's because of two effects:

1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse.

2) The charts are supporting the Silver decline. The last 2 months of advance is choppy and is best interpreted by a upward correction, which will be followed by a large decline below 30 $ in a swift move. Secondly, Silver is underperforming Gold, which is a leading indicator for most of the financial markets. The Silver / Gold ratio is down hard since spring 2011.

When would I be wrong?
Only if Silver makes a new high above 50$. But even if this happens, the crash is just postponed and Silver prices will eventually come back below 10 $ in the next 2-5 years.

[/quote]

Isn't silver better than fiat in times of distress? Aren't precious metals supposed to be a safe heaven for people during crisis?

Silver and gold are "precious" for thousands of years. What if a new kind of crisis would come? Would their prices plummet to earth?

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August 23, 2011, 09:28:20 PM
 #40

Isn't silver better than fiat in times of distress? Aren't precious metals supposed to be a safe heaven for people during crisis?

Silver and gold are "precious" for thousands of years. What if a new kind of crisis would come? Would their prices plummet to earth?

Yes; yes; only if it can't be traded for food. Smiley
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