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Author Topic: Silver shot up.  (Read 5199 times)
pekv2
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August 19, 2011, 11:19:39 PM
 #1

USD 43.56

http://silverprice.org/

Nice.
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August 19, 2011, 11:26:22 PM
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This looks like the beginning of a new rally people...  Shocked

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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August 20, 2011, 09:35:49 AM
 #3

What's the most economical way to get into Silver?

I've looked @ SLV, but would prefer the tangible bullion; however, I'm not keen on the markup of coins...

So, do you guys have any ideas as to how to most wisely invest in silver?

Gold Bullion and Stocks (GLD) just seem to 'expensive' to get into.  I know, it's suppose to be based on 'percentage' not 'amount' but... if you only have $1000 to invest, you can by 25 pieces of silver, or .8 pieces of gold... through options I've learned about leverage, and miniscule growth times 25, just seems better than moderate growth times .8

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August 20, 2011, 09:46:13 AM
 #4

It's simple see physical gold & silver as an insurance for cases where you cannot use bitcoin.
The only alternative is a contract of at least 1000oz silver or 500oz gold which can be delivered in physical.

There are retail bars but it's not worth the trouble imo.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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August 20, 2011, 12:10:57 PM
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What's the most economical way to get into Silver?

I've looked @ SLV, but would prefer the tangible bullion; however, I'm not keen on the markup of coins...

So, do you guys have any ideas as to how to most wisely invest in silver?

Gold Bullion and Stocks (GLD) just seem to 'expensive' to get into.  I know, it's suppose to be based on 'percentage' not 'amount' but... if you only have $1000 to invest, you can by 25 pieces of silver, or .8 pieces of gold... through options I've learned about leverage, and miniscule growth times 25, just seems better than moderate growth times .8

Thanks,
CRYPT

If you dont want the premiums of physical gold or silver (I live more comfortable knowing I own "the thing", and not some claim on it) and are wise enough to distrust SLV and GLD since they dont have what they promise, you could look into miner stocks. Its more risky though.

Be careful with the COMEX contracts as well. The COMEX change their regulations during this crisis and now it does not guarantee the physical, you can be payed back with SLV and GLD.
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August 20, 2011, 12:13:17 PM
 #6


Something funny is going on. It seems nobody says what is happening, but there is something big going on.

ECB is buying gov bonds in record quantities, and it is suspected this time includes spanish and italian bonds.
The Fed is injecting money in the banking system again.
The major stock markets are collapsing.
Gold and silver are shutting up.

I dont know the exact reason for all this panic, but something is happening.
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August 20, 2011, 12:45:14 PM
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Something funny is going on. It seems nobody says what is happening, but there is something big going on.

ECB is buying gov bonds in record quantities, and it is suspected this time includes spanish and italian bonds.
The Fed is injecting money in the banking system again.
The major stock markets are collapsing.
Gold and silver are shutting up.

I dont know the exact reason for all this panic, but something is happening.

o_O

Really? It's been plastered all over the news, Sovereign debt, poor economic data, and the absolute fact that even countries with low sovereign debt are too invested in the dollar such that should the worst be achieved things would really go to shit, and fast! Add to that the proximity to the 2008 financial crisis, the wipeout of gains since, and house of cards that debt has put us on, and the potential energy of a future decline is frightening.

Even if we do achieve some form of recovery out of this corner, debt has been so over extended since the 80's that it would easily take 10 - 20 years just to get us on a steady footing again.

And I'm not even an Austrian gold bug! Shocked

There is also the likely scenario that we add some more duct tape and limp on for another few years on the back of tech advancements and emerging markets....who knows what would come of this outcome.
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August 20, 2011, 12:48:18 PM
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I'm not panicky at all Grin , just dissappointed that I don't have more physical gold and silver reserves. But, I can only blame myself, because I got Austins G&S brochures a year ago, and just never acted!

I've been shorting the broad index's (via put options) for the last three weeks, and have increased my optionsxpress portfolio almost 300%. And in the meantime, I've gone long on the buy-and-hold stock premise a few dyed-in-the-wool companies that I've been looking at for a few seasons, now that they're on sale.

You gotta love the exponential leveraging power of not just options... but put options in particular, as stocks by and large, seem to FALL much quicker than they RISE.  With the ultimate being the VIX and VXX strangles of late.

What I think is going on is what they never taught us in high-school economics, we had to learn the hardway via personal struggles, defaults, humility, and bankruptcies.  If you SPEND more than you MAKE, and then you eventually can only pay the INTEREST on the debts you've accumulated, outside of your 'need to exist' bills; well, eventually, you'll throw your hands up in resignation that doing 'the right thing', while morally satisfying, is practically pointless.  Hence QE2, and our governments continued attempt at 'rectifiying it's household budget' via a CCCS (Consumer Credit Counselling Service) type of arrangement, which again... is just anothe money-making body - a vicious cycle.

I think currently, the nation, is coming to the conclusion that, well, It's time to bit the bullet, and face the cold hard truth --- As a nation, we're overspent, GROSSLY, and holy cow, we can't sweep this under the rug any longer, because, the World has pulled the rug out from under us.

Rambling, rambling, rambling....

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August 20, 2011, 02:35:46 PM
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o_O

Really? It's been plastered all over the news, Sovereign debt, poor economic data, and the absolute fact that even countries with low sovereign debt are too invested in the dollar such that should the worst be achieved things would really go to shit, and fast! Add to that the proximity to the 2008 financial crisis, the wipeout of gains since, and house of cards that debt has put us on, and the potential energy of a future decline is frightening.

Even if we do achieve some form of recovery out of this corner, debt has been so over extended since the 80's that it would easily take 10 - 20 years just to get us on a steady footing again.

And I'm not even an Austrian gold bug! Shocked

There is also the likely scenario that we add some more duct tape and limp on for another few years on the back of tech advancements and emerging markets....who knows what would come of this outcome.

Yes, that is the broad picutre. What you expose has been there for months and things were more or less stable. Im just saying that there is something in particular going on right now that is driving everybody nuts and in panic but I dont know what it is.

Also, the debt is a big problem but its not only the debt. The distortion of the capital structure is stopping the recovery as well. The most dramatic part is probably the people. You have a lot of people that specialized in the construction sector, in my country people stopped studying because they were getting payed a lot in the construction sector. What are these people going to do now that all that demand for construction labour is never going to come back (at least in some decades)? Are they going to go back to study again that they are over 30 and with family and obligations? Are they condemned to low-level paying jobs? Are there so many low-level paying jobs? The situation is dire.

And the sad thing is that there is no magic solutions and the objectives of the solutions being applied are to mantain the status quo at any price, no matter the consquences for the people.

Quote from: CRYPT
Hence QE2, and our governments continued attempt at 'rectifiying it's household budget' via a CCCS (Consumer Credit Counselling Service) type of arrangement, which again... is just anothe money-making body - a vicious cycle.

I think currently, the nation, is coming to the conclusion that, well, It's time to bit the bullet, and face the cold hard truth --- As a nation, we're overspent, GROSSLY, and holy cow, we can't sweep this under the rug any longer, because, the World has pulled the rug out from under us.

If history is any reference, when the system is so gone, governments and society in general never take the difficult (but correct) decissions and just keep going until everything collapses.
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August 20, 2011, 05:16:29 PM
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Lastly, both silver and gold have moved into significant backwardation this morning. This is an extremely significant development and, if it continues, is indicative of very tight, short-term supplies. A few loyal Turdites questioned the significance of the "Venezuelan Decision" when I posted the news Wednesday evening. Let me set this straight. It is extremely significant. Why?

1) The Venezuelan gold is on deposit at the Bank of England.

2) The Bank of England supplies the gold for the GLD.

3) I believe the GLD to be an empty, fraudulent shell game of fractional bullion banking.

4) It has been speculated that there might be only 1 ounce of gold for every 100 ounces of paper gold.

5) The withdrawal of 8% of GLD's gold from the BoE would cause a massive supply squeeze.

6) This massive supply squeeze would reveal itself by backwardation in the gold market.

7) See the paragraph above.

Cool IF I'm right and GLD is exposed as the scam I believe it to be....well, let's just say that gold is going a little bit higher from here.

9) Money flows out of GLD and back into the rightful place...the miners.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2114/friday-fun

This is the last post from Turd Ferguson

What do you guys think about that ? Could it be the reason of the panic ?

1BestioLC7YBVh8Q5LfH6RYURD6MrpP8y6
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August 20, 2011, 06:45:32 PM
 #11

Yeah I'm a bit disappointed I cashed out a big chunk of my silver bullion a month or two back...

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August 20, 2011, 06:50:41 PM
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Yeah I'm a bit disappointed I cashed out a big chunk of my silver bullion a month or two back...

Don't worry, it will turn down hard soon

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August 20, 2011, 06:58:08 PM
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We were at just shy of a 150% ROI on our bullion investment (142% to be exact...) we wanted it to push up to an even 150% or better and that's when the last hard down turn happened... We ended up with just under 100% ROI (double our money) in the space of about 8 months... so still not bad overall...

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August 20, 2011, 06:59:26 PM
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Yeah I'm a bit disappointed I cashed out a big chunk of my silver bullion a month or two back...

Don't worry, it will turn down hard soon

Why do you think this will happen? Only because of charting or do you have analize fundamentals as well (not judging just curious)?
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August 20, 2011, 09:07:28 PM
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Yes, that is the broad picutre. What you expose has been there for months and things were more or less stable. Im just saying that there is something in particular going on right now that is driving everybody nuts and in panic but I dont know what it is.

Also, the debt is a big problem but its not only the debt. The distortion of the capital structure is stopping the recovery as well. The most dramatic part is probably the people. You have a lot of people that specialized in the construction sector, in my country people stopped studying because they were getting payed a lot in the construction sector. What are these people going to do now that all that demand for construction labour is never going to come back (at least in some decades)? Are they going to go back to study again that they are over 30 and with family and obligations? Are they condemned to low-level paying jobs? Are there so many low-level paying jobs? The situation is dire.

And the sad thing is that there is no magic solutions and the objectives of the solutions being applied are to mantain the status quo at any price, no matter the consquences for the people.
Dia duit a mhac! Wink

I can see where you're coming from, I'd personally argue that the US downgrade is the singular point that has initialized the panic. Take it in the context of post WWII history, the post war boom was the penultimate boom of technology and improved productivity after the lean years of the war, we still see it's legacy today in how we live with mass production, and infrastructure. Here in England, I still charge up and down the motorways and dual carriage ways built over half a century ago, much of the systematic structures empowered by that period are still in existence today. Much the same is world order in which we have existed since, organisations such as the UN, WHO, NATO, IMF, World bank etc, and part of that historic legacy was the role of the US as the dominant Military and Economic power supported by her allies. Only up until recently the world existed in a bipolar state of power with the East/West divide, and only now are the realities of Multipolar global power being felt with the assent of China, India, Asia in general and an empowered South America to boot.

Now look at the state of the old order:
Europe is in a web of debt with it's premier economies faltering.
America is now dealing with the legacy of 2 of it's most costly drawn out wars to date, it's private institutions have further drained it's resources, and it's historical reserves have been drained.

In this context, the downgrade was monumental.........the singular point where the post WWII economic order ended, as significant as the fall of communism! Only this was so subtle, only after the fallout will it be noted.

Just as in Ireland on 30 September 2008, people didn't wake up and notice the effects of the bank guarantee the day after it had been signed, the same is to be said for the 6th August 2011. Welcome to the future, you live in interesting times my friend.

We're only 14 days in........... Shocked


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August 20, 2011, 09:23:54 PM
 #16

If you dont want the premiums of physical gold or silver (I live more comfortable knowing I own "the thing", and not some claim on it) and are wise enough to distrust SLV and GLD since they dont have what they promise, you could look into miner stocks. Its more risky though.

Be careful with the COMEX contracts as well. The COMEX change their regulations during this crisis and now it does not guarantee the physical, you can be payed back with SLV and GLD.

Physical only during times such as these - this isn't the time to be trading, but securing metal as insurance.

A few companies are starting to pay dividends in-kind (metal payout instead of dollars), but that isn't liquid. Besides, there are very troubling implications for what might be coming soon. The conditions are strained to a point of possible breakdown, but I think there might be enough tricks up the Fed's sleeve to keep the game going for another year or so.

If you still want to play options buy long-dated, far out-of-the-money calls. Avoid puts until gold is over $2000 and silver has decisively broken $50. Dollar cost average; scale in and out.
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August 20, 2011, 09:39:59 PM
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Yeah I'm a bit disappointed I cashed out a big chunk of my silver bullion a month or two back...

Don't worry, it will turn down hard soon

Why do you think this will happen? Only because of charting or do you have analize fundamentals as well (not judging just curious)?
It's because of two effects:

1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse.

2) The charts are supporting the Silver decline. The last 2 months of advance is choppy and is best interpreted by a upward correction, which will be followed by a large decline below 30 $ in a swift move. Secondly, Silver is underperforming Gold, which is a leading indicator for most of the financial markets. The Silver / Gold ratio is down hard since spring 2011.

When would I be wrong?
Only if Silver makes a new high above 50$. But even if this happens, the crash is just postponed and Silver prices will eventually come back below 10 $ in the next 2-5 years.

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August 20, 2011, 09:48:14 PM
 #18

Dont lynch me for this. But what this guy is saying is definitely something to at least keep into account. I personally think we are screwed, but I don't think that we are finished. Its going to get crazy regardless, best case scenario is a depression, no recession, depression. The govt cant bail us out this time. Buy all the hard solid in your actually hand precious metals you can. And bitcoins of course. Smiley

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August 20, 2011, 09:54:04 PM
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sorry. to the guy who thinks silver will collapse..... uhhhh.... k lets step back a bit. so your saying the economy will collapse (we are just going to use the US even though if the US collapses the world does) there are 300,000,000 americans roughly who have a currency which is worth next to zero. of those 300,000,000 americans 299,999,999 (obviously a joke but still) are idiots who cant take care of themselves. All those idiots know that since the begining of time silver and gold has been used as trading currency. ALL OF THOSE PEOPLE will hoard all the silver and gold they can and use it to trade. Because they know its valuable. Kind of like the bitcoin it cant be counterfeit.  Then supply and demmand kicks in.... and BOOOM! that shit skyrockets. So you are absolutely 100% off your rocker if you think that silver is going to plumet. All the smartest people in the world can tell everyone that silver and gold arent a good investment. But IF the economy crashes like you say it wont matter.

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August 20, 2011, 09:59:10 PM
 #20

I don't know if it's even possible, but you probably know it.
Could the fed buy silver and gold short positions from commercial banks?
Can the fed buy crazy derivatives to save the investors it wants?
I mean, doesn't JP morgan has a planned exit?

2 different forms of free-money: Freicoin (free of basic interest because it's perishable), Mutual credit (no interest because it's abundant)
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