$10.000,- is erg optimistisch. Dat wil zeggen dat de koers ten opzichte van de huidige koers van ongeveer $830 nog bijna 3 en een half keer in waarde moet verdubbelen. Om de koerst een keer te laten verdubbelen op dit moment zul je een instroom van kapitaal nodig hebben van rond de $10,000,000,000.- oftewel de huidige marketcap. De tweede verdubbeling (van een koers van $1660 naar $3320) vereist dan een nieuw kapitaal met een waarde van $20,000,000,000.- etc. Of zie ik hier iets over het hoofd?
Lijkt mij in ieder geval erg lastig, ik zeg niet dat het onmogelijk is want de koers is al zo vaak over de kop gegaan, maar het het kapitaal dat nodig is om zulke steigingen waar te maken zijn enorm. Iets wat veel mensen volgens mij over het hoofd zien.
Hier op terug komend, dit leek mij al wat dol. Na wat navragen in een ander threat:
Your initial responder was indeed correct. The term "market cap" really means market capitalisation. This is not in fact what is being measured by performing the sum "currenct BTC price (in $) * # of BTC in existence". It is in this case a misnomer.
Think about it, this really is just a rough (over?) estimate of current value. Many bitcoins have been lost or are simply not for sale for any price (for whatever reason, of which there could be many).
Also, many (large) bitcoin trades can take place away from large exchanges at prices either above or below the current price, again, for whatever reason.
Also, many traders will not necessarily keep their trades sitting in the order books, as this might 'give their game away', in whatever way they do not desire. They might be watching charts live or else have bots or traders which only add orders to the books when certain price points are reached. For this reason, even "market depth" is very difficault to calculate (with decent accuracy).
So you see, the total amount spent on bitcoins (to date) by bitcoiners is not equal to the current "market cap". And neither will any doubling in price by the result of another doubling of increase in investment. For example, if 90% of bitcoins are currently 'not for sale' because everybody was hodling (holding), then the price might fly up very quickly with little new "capitalisation" realised into the market.
These are only a few (basic) factors I am outlining, there are sure to be many more...
HTH explain a little of this for you.
(e4xit)
en:
My calculations show that on average, an investment of $1M raises the market cap by $4M in the long term. In other words, it takes $3M to raise the bitcoin price by $1 in a sustainable fashion.
...and if we assume that this stays roughly constant, it would take $3 trillion of new investment to raise the bitcoin price to $1 million. Requires some infrastructure yes, but hardly impossible considering how much money there is in the world chasing anything valuable
(rpietila)
Desondanks ziet de koers er belabberd uit
