[2018-05-15] Bullish Call: BitMEX Chief Predicts Bitcoin Price to Hit $50,000

[Psicotico]

There are numerous bitcoin price predictions floating out there, but when the head of a major bitcoin derivatives exchange shares his forecast, the price prediction has legs.

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and CEO of Seychelles-based BitMEX, the bitcoin mercantile exchange, has a bullish prediction for the bitcoin price, which he believes will skyrocket to $50,000 by year-end 2018, he told CNBC.

While the bitcoin price has bounced back and is inching closer to the $8,800 level, it’s still a far cry from Hayes’ price prediction. Though as Fundstrat market strategists have pointed out, much of the gains in the bitcoin price tend to unfold over just a handful of days each year.

Even at the start of the new year, when the bitcoin price was trading in the doldrums, Hayes wasn’t phased, though he pointed out “it’s [his] job to make predictions” whether or not they come true.

Hayes, a Citigroup alum, explained that he is a volatility trader, and he makes his money on the volatility in the bitcoin price, which there has been no shortage of year-to-date. “If it goes up, if it goes down, if you have Bill Gates calling it a fraud … Short it, I don’t care. If you think it’s going to be $1 million in a few months, great, buy it. I still don’t care. We just match trades,” Hayes said.

Asia-focused BitMEX is geared toward retail investors but instead of spot trading, it has some of the advanced features that you might expect to see on an institutional trading platform, including derivatives, margin trading and up to 100x leverage (which is more of a “headline number” and not something most traders take advantage of). The exchange supports short trading in perpetual contracts.

Market Dynamics
Hayes also addressed the cultural differences that affect cryptocurrency market dynamics in the Western world and Asia, the latter of which is where some suggest two-thirds of the market originates from.

“I think Asia dominates crypto because they’re very used to trading digital assets,” said Hayes, pointing to South Korea, where locals are accustomed to trading virtual goods in video games and where the culture is easily transferred to cryptocurrency trading.

And it’s individuals, not institutions, that are driving most of the volume.

“There’s really not too much institutional presence right now in crypto. It is a retail phenomenon,” Hayes told CNBC.

But many are expecting that institutional investors that have been sidelined are on the brink of a shift where they too will enter the space, especially with traditional Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs launching a trading desk and the NYSE also jumping in. When that happens, Hayes said BitMEX is prepared to support them, pointing to the exchange’s API.

Hayes got the Twitter-sphere talking when he claimed in a tweet to show up at Consensus 2018, which is unfolding in midtown Manhattan this week, in one of those famous crypto Lamborghinis.

If Hayes is correct and the bitcoin price attains $50,000 as he predicts, there could be a lot more Lambos on the road in the not-too-distant future.

https://www.ccn.com/bullish-call-bitmex-chief-predicts-50000-btc-by-year-end/

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[BitHodler]

I have seen that interview and it wasn't really convincing to be honest. He contradicted himself and didn't even explain why he believes that the price will go up. Seriously, what's the point of predicting something that you can't explain?

He made clear that he doesn't care about the price as long as the volatility remains the main aspect, because that's where BitMEX earns the big dollars. It's a gambler's paradise, especially with 100x leverage.

The margin between losing your initial settle value and the bust level is so insanely thin, that one swing can either make you a lot of money, but also instantly wipe out what you put in. It's not an exchange but a casino.

[1Referee]

I have seen that interview and it wasn't really convincing to be honest.

I found the most interesting part where he was being asked if they are equipped to handle institutions flooding his platform. His answer was that they have an API that everyone can code against and they have a lot of algo guys who tuned in because it's very volatile. How is that an answer to the question being asked?

These algo guys looking to benefit from the volatility are nothing more than regular traders running bots, which doesn't necessarily mean they coded everything themselves, but just bought bots and their licenses from whatever service. And then he praises the market because it's being traded by real humans instead of robots, lol.

I wish there was somone with actual sense of how things work in the crypto space to go in depth about these questions. That poor lady can't do anything other than taking his words for granted.

[slaman29]

50,000 by end of the year eh? I really am taking a huge disliking to these types of people. BitMEX doesn't make you an expert. It just marks you as one of the rich. Yes, you had good business ideas and took advantage, good for you. Yes, you are wealthy, and you took good risks and marketing to build the empire you have. But it doesn't make you an expert, and it sure doesn't make your valuation any more significant than mine.

Bitcoin has to first break its AtH, and then double and then some to reach 50k. Can it do it in 6 months? Yes. Is it likely? No.

[darkangel11]

It's funny that people in the industry are always bullish, while those who don't have stakes in it are bearish I think that most of these predictions are biased. I have BTC so I like it and I think it's going to go up in value, but if I didn't have any and was thinking about buying, I'd be bearish and trying to influence others, make them think like me so that the price may go lower. Don't rely on others, decide for yourself.

[act now]

Interesting forecast! But I think that this price will be achieved gradually. And while we are seeing a reduction of bitcoin price and therefore all other cryptocurrencies.

[squatter]

I have seen that interview and it wasn't really convincing to be honest. He contradicted himself and didn't even explain why he believes that the price will go up. Seriously, what's the point of predicting something that you can't explain?

I like Arthur Hayes and I've always enjoyed reading the BitMEX blog, but I agree. It doesn't sound like a well-informed or calculated opinion, and his thing is short term volatility trading anyway. I think BitMEX does have a 6-month contract and I'm sure they analyze market conditions for risk analysis... maybe he has some additional insight that we don't.

It's funny that people in the industry are always bullish, while those who don't have stakes in it are bearish I think that most of these predictions are biased.

That's because industry people grasp the fundamentals. They're probably not great at forecasting price and are bad at timing market moves, but they can gauge underlying adoption. But yeah, I'm sure there's some bias mixed in there as well.