China 31st of January

[HighSociety]

What are your guys thoughts on what will happen the week before and off course on the 31st of January? I read multiple articles which claim that trading in bitcoin will come to a complete stop or hold on the 31st of January in China? Or at least in Yuan/BTC  Since OKcoin and BTCChina now found a loophole by funding their site through the use of vouchers I wonder if this way of funding will also be banned by the Chinese central? And if we can expect a dump a week before the 31st of January?

[yomofo]

maybe we could get some of the posters in the china subforum to comment on this.  can't the banks just shut down the merchant bank account of btcchina?

[HighSociety]

maybe we could get some of the posters in the china subforum to comment on this.  can't the banks just shut down the merchant bank account of btcchina?

Great idea! I will start a post in the chinese subforum hopefully they'll repsond

[Parazyd]

5k yuan.

[BitThink]

What are your guys thoughts on what will happen the week before and off course on the 31st of January? I read multiple articles which claim that trading in bitcoin will come to a complete stop or hold on the 31st of January in China? Or at least in Yuan/BTC  Since OKcoin and BTCChina now found a loophole by funding their site through the use of vouchers I wonder if this way of funding will also be banned by the Chinese central? And if we can expect a dump a week before the 31st of January?

Jan 31 is the last day for 3rd party payment services to stop service. Since now almost all 3rd party payment services have already stopped service, 31 Jan does not have any special meaning in my opinion.

[HighSociety]

What are your guys thoughts on what will happen the week before and off course on the 31st of January? I read multiple articles which claim that trading in bitcoin will come to a complete stop or hold on the 31st of January in China? Or at least in Yuan/BTC  Since OKcoin and BTCChina now found a loophole by funding their site through the use of vouchers I wonder if this way of funding will also be banned by the Chinese central? And if we can expect a dump a week before the 31st of January?

Jan 31 is the last day for 3rd party payment services to stop service. Since now almost all 3rd party payment services have already stopped service, 31 Jan does not have any special meaning in my opinion.

Jan 31st is the start of the Chinese new year as well I believe. I did some research yesterday and apparently 2014 will be the year of the horse. Which   is a good sign for investing

However about the 3rd party payment services. How will this develop with the vouchers? Seems to me it will be a matter of time before the central bank also hammers down that option?

[BitThink]

What are your guys thoughts on what will happen the week before and off course on the 31st of January? I read multiple articles which claim that trading in bitcoin will come to a complete stop or hold on the 31st of January in China? Or at least in Yuan/BTC  Since OKcoin and BTCChina now found a loophole by funding their site through the use of vouchers I wonder if this way of funding will also be banned by the Chinese central? And if we can expect a dump a week before the 31st of January?

Jan 31 is the last day for 3rd party payment services to stop service. Since now almost all 3rd party payment services have already stopped service, 31 Jan does not have any special meaning in my opinion.

Jan 31st is the start of the Chinese new year as well I believe. I did some research yesterday and apparently 2014 will be the year of the horse. Which   is a good sign for investing

However about the 3rd party payment services. How will this develop with the vouchers? Seems to me it will be a matter of time before the central bank also hammers down that option?

The voucher is just a way to reduce the fiat withdrawing. The situation is that some people sold BTC and withdraw fiat from the exchange, but those who want to buy bitcoins cannot deposit the fiat. How about the latter give money to the former and keep the money in the exchange? That's the reason why voucher is proposed. Those who want to withdraw fiat generate vouchers instead and sell them to the one who want to deposit, and then the latter use the voucher to deposit.

You can see that there's no fiat increase by using vouchers. It's just a way to reduce the amount of fiat withdrawn from the exchange.  

[woutersteven]

Vouchers can be bought online elsewhere, for example on paipai.com: http://auction1.paipai.com/DC08877D0000000004010000356FA6A5

They started with 100.000 vouchers, each is 10.000 CNY and now there are 99932 left. That means 68 people spent 10.000 CNY elsewhere, presumably to deposit with BTC China. That doesn't seem like a lot yet, but it will be interesting to see how it develops.

[wachtwoord]

Vouchers can be bought online elsewhere, for example on paipai.com: http://auction1.paipai.com/DC08877D0000000004010000356FA6A5

They started with 100.000 vouchers, each is 10.000 CNY and now there are 99932 left. That means 68 people spent 10.000 CNY elsewhere, presumably to deposit with BTC China. That doesn't seem like a lot yet, but it will be interesting to see how it develops.

~$112k doesn't make much of a dent no. Don't they restock the vouchers to 100,000 total?

[Mirsad]

The voucher is just a way to reduce the fiat withdrawing. The situation is that some people sold BTC and withdraw fiat from the exchange, but those who want to buy bitcoins cannot deposit the fiat. How about the latter give money to the former and keep the money in the exchange? That's the reason why voucher is proposed. Those who want to withdraw fiat generate vouchers instead and sell them to the one who want to deposit, and then the latter use the voucher to deposit.

You can see that there's no fiat increase by using vouchers. It's just a way to reduce the amount of fiat withdrawn from the exchange.  

Quoting for the posters above.
There is no NEW money in china. It's a way to stabilize the outflow.

[R2Pleasent]

Because of how the vouchers work now, when BTC China removes RMB withdrawal on Jan 31, these transactions should cease.  Never depend on these workarounds in China anyways.  If the government wants to take something down, it will have no problem doing so.

[BitThink]

Vouchers can be bought online elsewhere, for example on paipai.com: http://auction1.paipai.com/DC08877D0000000004010000356FA6A5

They started with 100.000 vouchers, each is 10.000 CNY and now there are 99932 left. That means 68 people spent 10.000 CNY elsewhere, presumably to deposit with BTC China. That doesn't seem like a lot yet, but it will be interesting to see how it develops.

It's possible for BTCChina to release some vouchers themselves, but by doing this may increase the legal risk. I am not sure about this.

[BitThink]

Because of how the vouchers work now, when BTC China removes RMB withdrawal on Jan 31, these transactions should cease.  Never depend on these workarounds in China anyways.  If the government wants to take something down, it will have no problem doing so.

No any source tell us RMB withdrawal will cease after 31 Jan. it's illegal to stop withdrawal actually.

[MAbtc]

Because of how the vouchers work now, when BTC China removes RMB withdrawal on Jan 31, these transactions should cease.  Never depend on these workarounds in China anyways.  If the government wants to take something down, it will have no problem doing so.

No any source tell us RMB withdrawal will cease after 31 Jan. it's illegal to stop withdrawal actually.

What is the 31st deadline? Does trading cease? Or is that date not actually significant?

[BitThink]

Because of how the vouchers work now, when BTC China removes RMB withdrawal on Jan 31, these transactions should cease.  Never depend on these workarounds in China anyways.  If the government wants to take something down, it will have no problem doing so.

No any source tell us RMB withdrawal will cease after 31 Jan. it's illegal to stop withdrawal actually.

What is the 31st deadline? Does trading cease? Or is that date not actually significant?

No, it's not significant in my opinion, unless there're new updates from the China government.

[Apostata]

January 31st could be very significant.  If we look at what one credible source, Bloomberg, has said about the new rules in China:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-18/btc-china-says-it-can-t-accept-new-deposits-for-bitcoin-trading.html

"Chinese central bank officials told third-party payment service providers to stop offering clearing services to online Bitcoin exchanges, China Business News reported yesterday. The newspaper is affiliated with the Shanghai government,

Companies currently offering services must end them by the Chinese New Year, a weeklong holiday that begins on Jan. 31, the newspaper cited Zhou Jinhuang, deputy director of payment clearance at the People’s Bank of China, as saying at a meeting with more than 10 third-party payment service providers."

Third party payment service providers started by immediately halting deposits to the exchanges. So now the question is, what happens on January 31st to withdrawls?  Quoting the same article:

“The PBOC statement on Dec. 5 was somewhat vague and there is more clarity now,” Zennon Kapron, managing director of financial consultancy Kapronasia, said in an interview yesterday in Shanghai. “The way it’s reading now is that after the Chinese New Year, you won’t be able to get your money off the platforms.”

Think about that.  As of January 31st, you will no longer be able to withdraw money from Chinese BTC exchanges.  Let that sink in for a second. 

When Mt.Gox began having issues with withdrawals, other exchanges simply popped up and filled the void.  This cannot happen in China, since these rules apply to all Chinese exchanges, and there are already restrictions on the flow of money in and out of China.  Sure, BTCChina and other exchanges have found some workarounds, including using vouchers
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1tnf8e/btcchina_adds_a_fundingwithdrawal_option_btcc/ , but that still involves using Chinese Banks, many of which are controlled by the Chinese Government. 

Unless the Government changes their stance, there are a few possible outcomes to all of this, I believe:

1.) This is already built into the price, and those in China who wanted to sell have already, and nothing will happen on January 31st.
2.) The weak hands in China were the ones who sold leading to the recent drop in price. The strategic investors are holding until the price rebounds (already under way), and are going to dump in the weeks before the deadline. China is out.
3.) The weak hands in China were the ones who sold leading to the recent drop in price. The strategic investors will continue to hold, and will move underground to trade Bitcoin. 

I'd love to hear anyone's thoughts, especially those who are in China and can confirm what the sentiment is like now and what people are thinking.  Perhaps there are other scenarios that may play out that I haven't considered.  I personally think that scenario #2 is the most likely, or at least perhaps a combination of #2 and #3.  Even if #3 were to play out, there would still be drastically less people in China willing to go through all the hassle of dealing with vouchers and other potentially shady ways of dealing with bitcoin.  Regardless of which of the 3 scenarios that play out (or another scenario that I have not considered), this will be a "blip" on the radar in the life of Bitcoin.  There is a bright future for crypto and 2014 will be the year that we really see BTC gain momentum.  If we play our cards right, there could be an amazing buying opportunity at the end of January

My 2BTC anyway

[nastybit]

[...]
1.) This is already built into the price, and those in China who wanted to sell have already, and nothing will happen on January 31st.
2.) The weak hands in China were the ones who sold leading to the recent drop in price. The strategic investors are holding until the price rebounds (already under way), and are going to dump in the weeks before the deadline. China is out.
3.) The weak hands in China were the ones who sold leading to the recent drop in price. The strategic investors will continue to hold, and will move underground to trade Bitcoin. 
[...]

BTCChina is currently 8% less than gox, but who is able to withdraw from gox anyway? I wouldn't even try to submit a SEPA from gox.
I think number 3 is the most probable, China might come back on their decision and decide the heavy regulate (and tax!) Bitcoin, both trading, capital gain, and e-commerce, giving it no chance to compete with the usual markets

[Apostata]

BTCChina is currently 8% less than gox, but who is able to withdraw from gox anyway? I wouldn't even try to submit a SEPA from gox.
I think number 3 is the most probable, China might come back on their decision and decide the heavy regulate (and tax!) Bitcoin, both trading, capital gain, and e-commerce, giving it no chance to compete with the usual markets

I hope you are right, and the Chinese government just regulates.  But I think that is highly unlikely.  They are simply enforcing their grip on their own currency.  Bitcoin interferes with that grip and they have better things to deal with that regulate a new form of currency.  I still think option #2 is the most likely. 

We should all be thankful that the Chinese government took the time to handle this the way they did.  They could have simply banned Bitcoin overnight, the way they did with QQ http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/06/30/china_bans_virtual_money_to_buy_real_world_goods_and_services/.  Instead, they gave everyone time to withdraw their funds and gave ample notice of their intentions. 

[woutersteven]

I'm in Hong Kong and I think Hong Kong is going to be part of the solution here. Hong Kong will likely adopt a friendlier stance towards crypto currencies and any deposits / withdrawals will be done through exchanges in Hong Kong.

With the Chinese 1 country 2 systems policies, they can test the economic consequences of bitcoin in Hong Kong before deciding to accept it in China.

[Lloydie]

BTCChina is currently 8% less than gox, but who is able to withdraw from gox anyway? I wouldn't even try to submit a SEPA from gox.
I think number 3 is the most probable, China might come back on their decision and decide the heavy regulate (and tax!) Bitcoin, both trading, capital gain, and e-commerce, giving it no chance to compete with the usual markets

I hope you are right, and the Chinese government just regulates.  But I think that is highly unlikely.  They are simply enforcing their grip on their own currency.  Bitcoin interferes with that grip and they have better things to deal with that regulate a new form of currency.  I still think option #2 is the most likely. 

We should all be thankful that the Chinese government took the time to handle this the way they did.  They could have simply banned Bitcoin overnight, the way they did with QQ http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/06/30/china_bans_virtual_money_to_buy_real_world_goods_and_services/.  Instead, they gave everyone time to withdraw their funds and gave ample notice of their intentions. 

If you are choosing option 2 then why did you say this 2 days ago?

"I wasn't aware that there is a large underground industry catering to Chinese who want to send large amounts of RMB to Hong Kong, with fees apparently as low as 0.5%

I guess where there's a will there's a way, when it comes to bitcoin trading in China.  I guess as many suspected trading is just moving underground, for now anyway."

So, two days ago you were option 3 and now you are option 2?  I am now skeptical of you.