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Author Topic: First bubble?  (Read 5996 times)
Bitcoiner
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July 15, 2010, 05:54:10 PM
 #1

50 BC = $2.50? Surely this isn't sustainable even at the current difficulty Wink

Then again, all about supply and demand. If this is what the market demands, then go get your PCs ready, cause there's a gold rush in town!

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diven
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July 15, 2010, 06:12:13 PM
 #2

Where is this?

On bitcoinmarket current market value is 1 BTC = $0.0295 or 50 BTC = $1.46
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July 15, 2010, 06:14:38 PM
 #3

Where is this?

On bitcoinmarket current market value is 1 BTC = $0.0295 or 50 BTC = $1.46


I based it off of this:
Quote
PayPalUSD   0.045   0.05

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SmokeTooMuch
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July 15, 2010, 06:24:15 PM
 #4

wow, the (asked) exchange rate doubled today.
hope this won't make the people hord the coins even more but spend it for useful things or exchange them.

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July 15, 2010, 06:51:35 PM
 #5

wow, the (asked) exchange rate doubled today.
hope this won't make the people hord the coins even more but spend it for useful things or exchange them.

The higher the value goes, the more tempting it will be to spend them. This is what ultimately keeps the price in line with supply & demand in a non-propped market.

The unpredictable question is... if, where, and when? Wink

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July 15, 2010, 06:53:38 PM
 #6

WTF ?
Quote
All Bid Offers
ID   Date & Time      Currency   Quantity   Price   Total
579   2010-07-15 13:54:10   PayPalUSD   1000   21.0   21000.0
i guess this should be 0,021 and not 21. what a pitty ^^


wait... what ?
Quote
Summary Last Update: 2010-07-15 14:00:11
Currency      Bid   Ask      Price      Volume
PecunixGAU      0.0   0.000499   0.000368   0
LibertyReserveUSD   0.0   0.04      0.02      0
MoneyBookersUSD   0.004   0.045      0.0001      0
PayPalUSD      0.03   0.0479      42.5225      0

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diven
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July 15, 2010, 07:03:08 PM
 #7

Wow!

PayPalUSD     85.0     0.045     42.5225     1000
joechip
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July 15, 2010, 07:19:39 PM
 #8

Until there is a non-zero number in the volume column a market has not been made (or is there a programming problem with the front page exchange display?)
sirius
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July 15, 2010, 07:20:18 PM
 #9

Merchants will just have to adjust their rates - nobody will pay 10,000 BTC for a pizza anymore  Grin

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diven
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July 15, 2010, 07:26:58 PM
 #10

Until there is a non-zero number in the volume column a market has not been made (or is there a programming problem with the front page exchange display?)


The volume currently shown is as of the last update which happens every 2 minutes.  So when a trade occurs the volume will show up only until the next update.

You can see the total daily volume and prices by downloading the Intraday .csv file from the "Trends" page.
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July 16, 2010, 02:33:43 AM
 #11

There were some offers made in error today.  Whenever this occurs, I try to rectify it as best as I can.  I need to make it a little easier when placing an offer and have some error detection.  Also, I'm working on a better way to generate quotes, so errors can be eliminated quicker.  More work to do. Smiley
Babylon
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July 16, 2010, 09:22:47 PM
 #12

.08 on paypal?  That's like twice the price from yesterday isn't it?  There is definitely some bubbling going on.  I wish I had been in bitcoins earlier and had more built up, I'd totally help deflate it.  Oh well, I am sure another will come along later when I have more bitcoins.

db
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July 16, 2010, 10:05:26 PM
 #13

.08 on paypal?  That's like twice the price from yesterday isn't it?  There is definitely some bubbling going on.

Not necessarily. The generating cost quadrupled today:

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=43.msg3488#msg3488
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July 16, 2010, 10:17:59 PM
 #14

That could actually also be a bubble.  Although a different kind of one.  On the other hand it could be a real increase in interest in bitcoins, which would be great if it allows for a real economy to start growing.

I think the mention on Global Guerillas may have caused some of the interest, I know that is where I came from.

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July 17, 2010, 02:29:45 AM
 #15

Has anyone ever played with penny stocks and how they pump and dump them in discussion forums? I never have, but I've read about them haha. I'm not saying this is by any means, but for a good laugh think about this:

Someone points out a stock surging. A bunch of people buy in, and it goes even higher. There is no reason it should be where it is at based on performance, revenues, etc. All the guys in the forum are saying, keep buying, it's not a bubble. You don't know they are selling all their stock haha... price starts to dip. Everyone rushes out. Bubble pops.

What makes me made, is last week, I saved and saved because I wanted to sell a big chunks of coins at the same time. I sold some stuff on the forums, etc. Sold a chunk of 10,000 bc's for $50 Smiley lol... sure made me feel dumb this week! Let alone the $25 amazon card I just bought for $250 in todays value.

That's why I don't play in the stock market. I SUCK AT IT haha

Definitely seems there are a lot more people that want bitcoins than are available at the moment. Almost $2000 USD were traded on the market today !

I wouldn't go so far as to accuse people of doing a pump and dump.  I think some may be misplacing their optimism however.  I don't know, but I would guess that this is a bubble and that prices will go back down in a short time, although perhaps not as low as they used to be, and I do expect them to go considerably higher in the relatively short term (as in a year or so)

Babylon
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July 17, 2010, 02:35:11 AM
 #16

I'm definitely not accusing anyone of pumping and dumping bitcoins. On the penny stock forums they were. It just made me laugh. If I were to ever do penny stocks, I need to be on the inside list of the people that hop on the train first and you can spot when it's time to dump.

I really wonder if they will go lower. Cost to generate quadrupled today, from it's triple a few days ago. Costs to generate are very high, and there are a lot of people trading them for goods and services. It's a very exciting thing to see happen that's for sure!

It's definitely exciting.  Makes me glad I got in when I did, and makes me wish I had been in longer.  If it drops soon I'll most likely be trading in some dollars for bitcoins, but I am still of the opinion it's a bubble for now and will drop.

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July 17, 2010, 02:57:22 AM
 #17

While not a perfect indicator, if you want to speculate about this being a bubble or not and to what level of trade it will end up going to after awhile, I would suggest looking at this page:

http://sourceforge.net/project/stats/?group_id=244765&ugn=bitcoin

While interest is waning from the peak spike with the Slashdot story, interest still remains strong with triple digit numbers for downloads.  Certainly that indicates a sustain increase in participation from an earlier date and that Bitcoins has come up on the radar screen.  It also went from being ranked at about 30k out of all Source Forge projects to moving up to one of the top 1000.  That is significant.

I don't know how long this will be sustained, but it does indicate that a huge increase in demand has happened with Bitcoins, and that not only are coins being much harder to generate, but that many more people are trying to use them.

I'd agree, however, that it remains to be seen if this can be sustained or what the final sustainable levels of interest will be after this spike.

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July 17, 2010, 06:58:46 AM
 #18

It's also good there are already as many vendors as there are selling stuff. To help maintain growth and usability, we need people to continue to trade goods and services and continue to use bitcoins as the median.

I know many are using paypal to cash out after receiving, but think of it this way. If you have bitcoins, say you received them for a service, and you use them to buy goods from someone else, there is 0% transaction fee to use bitcoins. Better than pecunix, paypal, or traditional credit cards.

There is a small transaction fee for using bitcoins.  Not everybody is getting charged that fee at the moment, but it is something that is happening even now.  Those transaction fees go to the node operators for "large" transaction that take a bit more processing for whatever reason in the network.  I don't know all of the details, but it is something built into the network.

Regardless, it certainly is a much smaller transaction fee than the other payment methods, and a heck of a lot less than credit or debit cards.  With the fees that merchants pay for credit card sales, I actually go out of my way to make sure I pay cash for purchases at a small Mom & Pop store in my town explicitly so they can end up keeping more of the money I'm giving to them (pulling it out of an ATM where possible prior to the purchase).  Large box stores I really don't care about, as they already have "special" arrangements with banks for these fees anyway.  If I am without cash and using plastic anyway, I also try to explicitly request "POS debit" instead of "credit" even if the store clerk is clueless about the issue for the same reason... it makes a difference in terms of profits to the store.

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Babylon
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July 17, 2010, 07:43:06 AM
 #19

.08 was, if not a bubble, a spike, since it is down to .05 now.  I'm betting on it going down a bit more before it starts climbing again.

(of course, I'm only planning on buying like 10 dollars worth of bitcoins anyways, so it's not a real momentous decision)

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July 17, 2010, 08:09:44 AM
 #20

.08 was, if not a bubble, a spike, since it is down to .05 now.  I'm betting on it going down a bit more before it starts climbing again.

(of course, I'm only planning on buying like 10 dollars worth of bitcoins anyways, so it's not a real momentous decision)
When comparing spikes, don't compare closing prices to opening prices. There are benefits to being the lowest/highest offer when the market opens. For example, right now the high bid is $0.10 and the low ask is $0.05, which will result in a trade at $0.75, which is better than either person's bid or ask. Now suppose there was a bid at $0.99, and after the market opened, someone offered an ask for $0.99. He didn't get the first trade and ends up spending more money than the person who had a higher bid at the beginning of the day. The same is true for an ask of $0.049 that goes through at that price. If he had gotten the higher bid, he could have gotten about $0.75, but instead he only ends up getting $0.49.

And there goes my trading advantage. Cry Don't never say I ain't never not given you nothin'. Kiss

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