The eventual top of the hashing power

[tazman2150]

what you guys think the eventual top of the hashing power will be? i mean just now were getting 20%-30% increases every adjustment but that's because of the amount of interest in bitcoin and the ASICS are developing very fast from one nm generation to the next small nm generation. but once we get down to the 14nm like where we're getting to with CPU technology just now its not going to go up as fast yes? and there's no new technology to switch to in the near future to get the same leaps and bounds like the switch from CPU to GPU to ASICS did.

So where you's think it's going? where will it stop? how high?  

[zimmah]

It depends on the 14nm performance as well as the amount of people that will buy them.

As long as 14nm will be profitable, people will buy them, so i guess the eventual top would be just low enough for 14nm to be profitable, but anything else will likely be unprofitable. That is, they might be profitable until 14nm comes to play, but as soon as 14nm starts to come online all older miners will eventually become unprofitable.

Since we're not even on 20nm (or not even widespread 28nm even) it's nearly impossable to call a ceiling just yet.

Also, the bitcoin value itself will influence the profitability of miners. So as bitcoin become worth more (in terms of dollars, or in whatever currency electricity is paid), miners become more profitable.

[darcimer]

I would also guess that soon mining will start competing with mainstream technology, I.e 14 nm chips for smart phones and tablets, and asic production will compete with them for chips and producers resources.

[Puppet]

IT will stop when mining is no longer marginally profitable (ie, it costs more in electricity than it generates in mining). With current technology, current BTC price (and block reward). This chart gives you an idea:



Those numbers are derived from Bitmine's power efficiency specs in "nominal mode", 0.6J/GH, which are basically the same as HF, CT and BFL. I doubt that will be the pinnacle of power efficiency though; more efficient chips and/or these chips running in lower power mode, the ceiling may be 2-3x higher. Then multiply or divide by whatever you think BTC will be worth in the future.