One interesting aspect that seems to be large unnoticed is that the (estimated) hash rate is currently growing exponentially without any direct connection to price. Just this day we passed 10 million gigahashes.
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rateSince the inflation of bitcoin until the next reward halving is approximately 10 percent per year the amount of money spent on mining infrastructure and electricity per year should roughly equal 10 percent of the market capitalization. This direct correlation between price and hashing capacity does not seem to exist for the moment.
I would argue that this indicates that we can expect more upwards price movements in the mid term. It is of course the hashing capacity that is following the price, not the other way around, BUT if the hashing capacity continues to rise exponentially it will indicate that miners are prepared to add more rigs despite the fact that it for the moment would be better to buy coins instead of mining them. This may indicate that everybody in the game are preparing for a price rise.
Another interesting related thing is that the hashing capacity has risen ten to fifteen times since september 2013, whereas the price only has risen by about five to six times, nine at its peak. This probably indicates that the price for the moment is at a sustainable level and that further price rises can be expected.
Thoughts?
