White Wizard Bitcoin analysis - Part 1: The August 23rd crash

[Are-you-a-wizard?]

Some like to pin the blame on one person, those that are in the Bitcoin spotlight are easy targets.

Really it's the fact that the exchange rate is driven solely by speculation. People held onto their coins in the hopes of mass media attention from the convention driving up the price.

The reality of the situation is that the convention was a great success for the longterm development of Bitcoin, but not for the speculators who care only for a get rich quick scheme.

Over time the exchanges will be less dependant on speculators, but right now the majority of buyers are speculators and so we will have these wild swings.

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[GeniuSxBoY]

Hahaha. It's North Korea!

[jrtubs]

even with media attention, it would take a few days for any new investor to fund an account. So any movement this weekend would be in the btc community. It would seem that any spark in new investor would be coming in more mid this week no?

[BitSense Informatics]

I think that speculators of a necessary part of any market, including Bitcoin.  Speculators provide liquidity and assume the price risk that the producers (miners), and consumers (merchants) do not want to accept.

Imagine how wide the bid/ask spread would be if there were no speculators present in the market.

[tacotime]

There are too many buyers for bitcoin for it right now to crash...  to get to $9 we need 800,000$ of BTC sold on Mtgox, but only 300,000$ bought to get to 13.

BTC is in short supply for some reason.

[Are-you-a-wizard?]

There are too many buyers for bitcoin for it right now to crash...  to get to $9 we need 800,000$ of BTC sold on Mtgox, but only 300,000$ bought to get to 13.

BTC is in short supply for some reason.

~$72,000 worth of BTC is mined every single day. Where does it all go?

[tacotime]

Perhaps it is being horded so that it may cause a giant crash on Mtgox, push the price down to $7 and then to $4 over inconfidence, buy it all up again at that price, increase valuation.

But, um, I don't know it doesn't seem to be a very likely or intelligent plan.  Even if you push it to $7, tons of people may start buying then and mess up the whole plan.  Bitcoin is too volatile to really know what's going on from one moment to the next.  I buy when the price looks low and sell when it looks high.

Even all the money mined today can not breach the $11 wall.

[Technomage]

~$72,000 worth of BTC is mined every single day. Where does it all go?

It has been discussed before that not nearly all of the coins are sold at all, they are saved. How much of it is sold is unknown, but it is nowhere near 100%.

[mute20]

Yes even if 50% sold the market would collapse.

[tacotime]

Well, someone buy or sell a bajillion BTC and do something, it's boring as hell right now out there.

[Cluster2k]

Well, someone buy or sell a bajillion BTC and do something, it's boring as hell right now out there.

Yet, that 'boring' stability is exactly what serious users of bitcoins need.  Imagine being a trader and every day waking up to bitcoins being worth $6 today, $9 tomorrow, maybe $11 the day after, and back again.  That's the kind of action we've seen in the past few weeks.  Imagine trying to price your products in something falling or gaining 20% in a day.  The trader would have to add a thick margin to insulate themselves from probably losses, which begs the question why they would want to use bitcoins in the first place and not just use something very stable by comparison such as the US dollar.

[FlipPro]

Well, someone buy or sell a bajillion BTC and do something, it's boring as hell right now out there.

Yet, that 'boring' stability is exactly what serious users of bitcoins need.  Imagine being a trader and every day waking up to bitcoins being worth $6 today, $9 tomorrow, maybe $11 the day after, and back again.  That's the kind of action we've seen in the past few weeks.  Imagine trying to price your products in something falling or gaining 20% in a day.  The trader would have to add a thick margin to insulate themselves from probably losses, which begs the question why they would want to use bitcoins in the first place and not just use something very stable by comparison such as the US dollar.

+1 Hope it stays nice and "boring" till Christmas, That would be NICE.

[GeniuSxBoY]

Stability absolutely is the epitome of suckiness @ $11. It means nobody is buying or selling bitcoins.

There are 7 billion people out there,
there is $83 trillion USD in existence not including the 219 other countries' currencies, 


and there are only 7 million bitcoin.


Stability at $11 is the LAST THING we need.

[proudhon]

Stability absolutely is the epitome of suckiness @ $11. It means nobody is buying or selling bitcoins.

There are 7 billion people out there,
there is $83 trillion USD in existence not including the 219 other countries' currencies, 


and there are only 7 million bitcoin.


Stability at $11 is the LAST THING we need.

Stability is nice.  We ultimately want that.  But, it is still WAY too early in bitcoin's life for there to be even the tiniest hope of long lasting stable price.  And, quite frankly, at this stage in bitcoin's life stable prices are probably an indicator that the currency is not being adopted, and we don't want it not being adopted.  That's my take.

[ElectricMucus]

Why would stability in the current situation too soon?

The price reflects the electricity used 1:1 right now anything more would drive more people buying rigs which does nothing for bitcoin except subjectively increasing security (If it were a concern somebody would do something about deepbit).

If the price falls difficulty might drop, decreasing the amount of people involved with bitcoin.

But if difficulty & price stays the same even for a few months it will attract business to accept bitcoins. Any other scenario will not. Adoption comes after stability not before it.

[Piper67]

Stability absolutely is the epitome of suckiness @ $11. It means nobody is buying or selling bitcoins.

There are 7 billion people out there,
there is $83 trillion USD in existence not including the 219 other countries' currencies, 


and there are only 7 million bitcoin.


Stability at $11 is the LAST THING we need.

Agreed. Stability, when it comes to bitcoin, pretty much equals stagnation. It's great that there's a handful of very smart guys working on new software, start-ups and ideas. But for bitcoin to succeed it will need to be "engaged with" by a significant portion of "other humans".

This means that as long as bitcoin remains stable, there will be very little incentive for anyone to even think of buying a bitcoin, let alone using it. In the meantime, 7200 new bitcoins will appear each and every day for the next few months, and that will cause a slow and steady drop, making it even less likely that anyone outside the little group will look on bitcoins as a good idea or investment.

Much has been said about the advantages of a stable bitcoin... it really is all nonsense. With a naturally deflationary currency, you'd expect, and want, for it to go up in price over time. This is in the nature of bitcoin. Stability is not. Right now, the stable state of affairs is unnatural... Mass adoption of bitcoin will come from its upwards swings, not from its stable periods.

[ElectricMucus]

This means that as long as bitcoin remains stable, there will be very little incentive for anyone to even think of buying a bitcoin, let alone using it. In the meantime, 7200 new bitcoins will appear each and every day for the next few months, and that will cause a slow and steady drop, making it even less likely that anyone outside the little group will look on bitcoins as a good idea or investment.

Nobody is talking about a drop, that will be bad. You are making it sound if stability is impossible.
Yes there will be swings up & down of course.

How little do you think this group is? Any idea what the average hashrate might be? A hint: It's actually pretty low.

Much has been said about the advantages of a stable bitcoin... it really is all nonsense.

thanks  

With a naturally deflationary currency, you'd expect, and want, for it to go up in price over time. This is in the nature of bitcoin. Stability is not. Right now, the stable state of affairs is unnatural... Mass adoption of bitcoin will come from its upwards swings, not from its stable periods.

Do you realize that the individuals mining bitcoins today get a minuscule amount of them? So they are all potential first hand consumers.

Bitcoin isn't deflationary right now it's highly inflationary. You are contradicting yourself btw..

Yes I know... greed is eternal.

[Piper67]

This means that as long as bitcoin remains stable, there will be very little incentive for anyone to even think of buying a bitcoin, let alone using it. In the meantime, 7200 new bitcoins will appear each and every day for the next few months, and that will cause a slow and steady drop, making it even less likely that anyone outside the little group will look on bitcoins as a good idea or investment.

Nobody is talking about a drop, that will be bad. You are making it sound if stability is impossible.
Yes there will be swings up & down of course.

How little do you think this group is? Any idea what the average hashrate might be? A hint: It's actually pretty low.

Much has been said about the advantages of a stable bitcoin... it really is all nonsense.

thanks  

With a naturally deflationary currency, you'd expect, and want, for it to go up in price over time. This is in the nature of bitcoin. Stability is not. Right now, the stable state of affairs is unnatural... Mass adoption of bitcoin will come from its upwards swings, not from its stable periods.

Do you realize that the individuals mining bitcoins today get a minuscule amount of them? So they are all potential first hand consumers.

Bitcoin isn't deflationary right now it's highly inflationary. You are contradicting yourself btw..

Yes I know... greed is eternal.

Heh, hashrate? You're sort of making my point.

Bitcoin will sink or swim on the basis of its adoption by people who have no idea what a hashrate is. These people will be attracted to bitcoin if it can provide something they don't already get... like a steady increase in value. Get it?

If the only people involved with bitcoin can all give you a definition for hashrate, it's a hobby, not a currency or commodity.

[ElectricMucus]

Did you even think about my post?
Let my spell it out for you: If you've got just one 5870 you above average.

This board is only the tip of the iceberg.

[Piper67]

Did you even think about my post?
Let my spell it out for you: If you've got just one 5870 you above average.

This board is only the tip of the iceberg.

Oh, man... It seems you really can't process what you read. Let me bring it to you in easy to digest bits, ok:

1) Bitcoin needs to gain wider acceptance for it to succeed. Even among the technically inclined, right now, the camp is almost equally divided between supporters and detractors. This holds also for the economists and the traders (though probably more detractors among traders than economists or techs).

2) The only reason your or my grandmother would ever consider getting a single bitcoin is if she has an incentive to do so. The world is full of grandmothers, grandfathers, farmers, doctors, shoemakers, students... the list goes on. They outnumber the techs, economists and traders at least a million to one. What they consider an incentive is important.

3) Bitcoin is currently inflationary. 7200 new coins every day. That places a lot of downward pressure on the market.

4) Bitcoin is naturally deflationary in the long term (please note how 3 and 4 are actually separate statements and not contradictory, thanks). It furthermore bills itself as being deflationary.

5) What constitutes an incentive? A steady rise in price, for one. Other things, like a decentralised nature, the ability to make payments around the world and being resistant to counterfeit are large incentives as well, but not so much for that million other people out there for each tech, economist or trader.

6) Stability = absence of rise in price = non-adoption for the masses.