Do you really think governments will allow a 500 billion dollar crypto-economy?

[Honeypot]

A serious question.




Major investors and many people have been making predictions about bitcoin rising to 40,000 USD per coin.


Going by recent figures, that would mean the total market size of crypto economy will rise to half a trillion dollars.


That's easily more than half of several top 20 economies in the world. Around near 13% of annual US federal budget.




And it's supposed to be decentralized, anti-government.




Is there really a realistic possibility that a market of such size can exist without either 1. some form of governmental oversight/regulation, or 2. going fully underground as an illegal form of black economy?



Only recently a national government acted to shut down a significant portion of crypto economy. That's only when BTC reached 1200 USD. What do you think governments will do when they figure such a significant market is trying to become a national economy in its own right?


Realistic discussions please. How can crypto survive to reach the level many people want to see? Remember, nothing is particularly fool-proof. What has been made can be unmade. Nothing is absolute.


How can this work?


Discuss.

[Nagato]

The question is not whether governments will allow a $X bitcoin economy, the question is whether Bitcoin will allow oversized governments to exist and retain the kind of power they currently do.

[Honeypot]

The question is not whether governments will allow a $X bitcoin economy, the question is whether Bitcoin will allow oversized governments to exist and retain the kind of power they currently do.

....and we have the first jap-anime inclined fool chiming in with deluded sense of 'power' they hold.

Why don't you go hang in chinese and russian government custody with the weaboo kiddy snowden and find out life doesn't work out like a shounen manga/comic?


REALISTIC discussions.

[bitbrasil]

Well governments around the world allow Google which has near 350 billion market cap so yes, why not?

[Honeypot]

Well governments around the world allow Google which has near 350 billion market cap so yes, why not?

Except that crypto doesn't want such government interference as those imposed on transnational companies such as google.

Main conflict here is that governments are only willing allow things to grow if they get a slice of the action and is ultimately in control. What, does crypto have a standing army?

[coinrevo]

Its a distributed system. Bitcoin runs on TCP/IP and there will be always smart ways to prevent blocks. Do you think the government will shutdown the internet? US government is trying. Read about the new CISPA bill.

[tom.hashemi]

Its a distributed system. Bitcoin runs on TCP/IP and there will be always smart ways to prevent blocks. Do you think the government will shutdown the internet? US government is trying. Read about the new CISPA bill.

Don't be obtuse. The US government is not trying to shut down the Internet. Regulation is not the same as shutting down.

[wachtwoord]

LOL as if they have a say in the matter. Hilarious

[Nagato]

The question is not whether governments will allow a $X bitcoin economy, the question is whether Bitcoin will allow oversized governments to exist and retain the kind of power they currently do.

....and we have the first jap-anime inclined fool chiming in with deluded sense of 'power' they hold.

Why don't you go hang in chinese and russian government custody with the weaboo kiddy snowden and find out life doesn't work out like a shounen manga/comic?


REALISTIC discussions.

Instead of calling contributors to your thread fools, why don't you go study history and quote 1 example of a power being successful in stopping the adoption of a technology they did not like?

[bryant.coleman]

Even now they are doing everything they can to destroy Bitcoin. JP Morgan even tried to patent the technology. But the truth is that they are currently powerless to do so.

[Kungfucheez]

Depends

If the market becomes large enough, there might be a serious need for more regulation in order to prevent fraud and give every investor an equal hand, in which case there would be nothing any of the coins could do to stop such regulation if the government insisted. Sure, you could argue all you want, but most people would jump on the chance to have more secure investment opportunities and to prevent against frauds and scams that seem to pop up weekly with Crypto coins. 

[2017orso]

We haven't had an attempt to stop bitcoin, and in my opinion, we won't see one.

Governments taking precautions and evaluating measures in the form of regulations or likely only temporary distance are not inherently aggressive maneuvers.  Not sure why they're seen in that light.  

It has the potential of becoming heavily adopted internationally, and can be of great benefit to many individual nation states.  It is in the best interests of any one country then, especially the powerful, to not make a detrimental long-term negative move.  In the same light, a similar positive move may be a bit premature.  If all the powerful governments could figure out a way to band together and put up a economical wall against the nation states who have every incentive to adopt bitcoin, then perhaps they would do so.  Unfortunately, that is not at all realistic or likely, not only because said countries are battling for supremacy against each other, but also given the intense rate of adoption.

So in that light, no, there's nothing governments can do.  They can play along, not play along and turn a blind eye, or not play along and expend policing on an inevitable underground market.

The people have spoken, many countries, understandably, are hugely in favor of it.  The fact that the powerful are so bent on power is part of bitcoins anti-fragility.  If the powerful don't want to experience even a slight tip in the scales, which they won't, then they simply have to find a way to mesh the old with the new.

[Abdussamad]

The question is not whether governments will allow a $X bitcoin economy, the question is whether Bitcoin will allow oversized governments to exist and retain the kind of power they currently do.

....and we have the first jap-anime inclined fool chiming in with deluded sense of 'power' they hold.

Why don't you go hang in chinese and russian government custody with the weaboo kiddy snowden and find out life doesn't work out like a shounen manga/comic?


REALISTIC discussions.

I don't think we can have any sort of civilized discussion if you are going to insult people.

[Melbustus]

Ultimately, yes.

(note: I just read the title of this thread)

[wachtwoord]

We haven't had an attempt to stop bitcoin, and in my opinion, we won't see one.

Governments taking precautions and evaluating measures in the form of regulations or likely only temporary distance are not inherently aggressive maneuvers.  Not sure why they're seen in that light.  

It has the potential of becoming heavily adopted internationally, and can be of great benefit to many individual nation states.  It is in the best interests of any one country then, especially the powerful, to not make a detrimental long-term negative move.  In the same light, a similar positive move may be a bit premature.  If all the powerful governments could figure out a way to band together and put up a economical wall against the nation states who have every incentive to adopt bitcoin, then perhaps they would do so.  Unfortunately, that is not at all realistic or likely, not only because said countries are battling for supremacy against each other, but also given the intense rate of adoption.

So in that light, no, there's nothing governments can do.  They can play along, not play along and turn a blind eye, or not play along and expend policing on an inevitable underground market.

The people have spoken, many countries, understandably, are hugely in favor of it.  The fact that the powerful are so bent on power is part of bitcoins anti-fragility.  If the powerful don't want to experience even a slight tip in the scales, which they won't, then they simply have to find a way to mesh the old with the new.

And that wraps up this thread.

[nastybit]

....and we have the first jap-anime inclined fool chiming in with deluded sense of 'power' they hold.

ROFL

Anyway.. no, governments won't allow it, they will try to extort as much as they can from people to retain their power.
This is just the beginning, they are trying to understand if they can make some money out of it before killing it.
The only problem with this is that cryptos are decentralized which not even a censorship can stop

[Lethn]

you noob Honeypot, haven't you ever heard of Bittorrent? Thanks to Bitcoin being released open source that is exactly what will happen in the future, it will be a never ending game of whack-a-mole anyone who is in the Bitcoin business will simply have servers etc. in Bitcoin friendly countries that the governments can't invade easily.

[Peter R]

Why do so many people view governments (aka "they") as monolithic, organized, single purpose organizations? The truth is that governments are just a bunch of fallible human beings.  The current system is working for these individuals, so they support it.  But if they see a credible threat, they will hedge (buy bitcoin in private), and if the see a sinking ship, they will jump.  


WHAT THE OP ASSUMED: governments will fight to maintain their power

WHAT HE SHOULD HAVE ASSUMED: individuals in government will fight to grow their power


OP, if you re-run your analysis assuming that individuals in government will look after their own self-interest and that of those closest to them, does this change the game-theory outcome?  

The way I see it is that once bitcoin is a credible threat, individuals in governments will hedge.  Those that hedged early will see they have more to gain by allowing bitcoin to win than by supporting the collapsing status quo.  They will tow the party line in public, but act in private in ways the stealthily support bitcoin.  

[dc0ded]

The question is not whether governments will allow a $X bitcoin economy, the question is whether Bitcoin will allow oversized governments to exist and retain the kind of power they currently do.

Excellent point. 
You are absolutely right my friend.

[zimmah]

governments are there to serve the people, not the other way around.

Do we really allow a handful of people to decide what the rest of the world should do?

Do we?