Your thoughts on when BTC will reach $1000 again?

[segeln]

Thanks.. I was simply looking at angles and saw a pattern.
I should play with the design an incorporate some useful & comparable numbers.  

just put it in a log scale and it will be ok.And it will be useful for month.
I personally think more comparable numbers are not needed .
Watch this longtime Chart from Godmode-trader.de
http://img.godmode-trader.de/charts/46/2013/11/d1170bitcoin2-18.png
The text about this Chart is:

A Rally acceleration is going on which could push up the Price up to the potential trendchannel top at about 2.400 to 2.600 Dollar.
From there could start a correction which might be finished in the bullish Version in a few month at an high Level.
After that another Rally acceleration is possible.
Prices up to 15.000 or 100.00 Dollar seem to be utopic at this time but from the chart-analytic Point of view they are possible without any Problems.
The amount would be not more than the first Rally from 2010 to mid 2011.

I think Godmode-trader`s Chart is a bit "healthier" than yours.
you might Label your chart "bullish but healthy"

[1715434656]

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[1715434656]

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[Dr Bloggood]

I bought most of my BTCs on that lowest day

Congratulations!

Thanks

[Dr Bloggood]

The recent spike was due to the enormous interest from the Chinese investors. They have mostly offloaded their stake. So now we have to wait for another spike from some other nation... may be India, may be Indonesia, or may even be some Latin American nation.

India? Just got shut down by the  goverment.
Indonesia? Too small an economy.

US and Europe, South Korea maybe.

Don't need a spike from a country. It really is not necessary to look at it in terms of "injections" of interest - steady adoption in America alone (not that it will be just America alone) would mean many months to several years more growth.

Agreed. Organic growth round the world, is enough. Look at this site for metrics:

http://www.bitcoinpulse.com/

And people like coinbase  doing a POS app for retailers: http://t.co/BJM7ss8sMi

Plus widespread placement of bitcoin ATM machines will help enormously.

Agreed again.

Agreed, agreed, agreed.

[jamesc760]

Here's my guess. US federal tax refunds start mid to late February 2014, so beginning middle of March 2014, lots of SMART people will start to invest in bitcoins. Note to myself: buy more bitcoins in February 2014.

[T.Stuart]

Here's my guess. US federal tax refunds start mid to late February 2014, so beginning middle of March 2014, lots of SMART people will start to invest in bitcoins. Note to myself: buy more bitcoins in February 2014.

Note to myself: buy more bitcoins in January 2014 

[Reece523]

March 2014 sounds right to me too

[T.Stuart]

March 2014 sounds right to me too

Bit earlier than that - we will at least scrape it if not break it in January

[Bitcoin Machine]

Thanks.. I was simply looking at angles and saw a pattern.
I should play with the design an incorporate some useful & comparable numbers.  

just put it in a log scale and it will be ok.And it will be useful for month.
I personally think more comparable numbers are not needed .
Watch this longtime Chart from Godmode-trader.de
http://img.godmode-trader.de/charts/46/2013/11/d1170bitcoin2-18.png
The text about this Chart is:

A Rally acceleration is going on which could push up the Price up to the potential trendchannel top at about 2.400 to 2.600 Dollar.
From there could start a correction which might be finished in the bullish Version in a few month at an high Level.
After that another Rally acceleration is possible.
Prices up to 15.000 or 100.00 Dollar seem to be utopic at this time but from the chart-analytic Point of view they are possible without any Problems.
The amount would be not more than the first Rally from 2010 to mid 2011.

I think Godmode-trader`s Chart is a bit "healthier" than yours.
you might Label your chart "bullish but healthy"

Thanks.  Godmode-trader Chart looks great.  I've never seen it before.  I am by far no expert, but it will interesting to see which chart is more accurate 2 years from now.

[TERA]

The current trend is too weak and low volume to reach anywhere near $1000.  It will have to be after another capitulation. So, probably not in January.

[Ibian]

When will people learn. Trend, volume, it doesn't mean anything. All that matters is how much people buy. And that can't be predicted just by charts.

[T.Stuart]

When will people learn. Trend, volume, it doesn't mean anything. All that matters is how much people buy. And that can't be predicted just by charts.

I think it depends on the market state of mind. If people are in a panic for example then volume is important to consider but still difficult to judge. Volume with Bitcoin is actually very difficult to judge in any accurate way in any case. Looking at the order books is deceptive - there are full accounts without limit orders - and I don't think you can read Bitcoin in the same way as stocks and shares when it comes to volume.

I don't think most people are in a panicky mood at all now. But people wanting to buy in might get more panicky as the uptrend continues, causing a some steeper stuff in the weeks to come.

[skivrmt]

When will people learn. Trend, volume, it doesn't mean anything. All that matters is how much people buy. And that can't be predicted just by charts.

Yes and no.  Volume is a huge factor.  We're going up now, but on very low volume since it's holiday time.  But per the charts, we're reaching some resistance levels also and slowly breaking through them.  That only comes with people buying.  You can't predict anything of course, but you can make educated guesses.

[Dr Bloggood]

Question to anyone: What would be the most accurate way to judge BTC volume?

[skivrmt]

Question to anyone: What would be the most accurate way to judge BTC volume?

There's a lot of different sites out there to see the volumes on each exchange.  I like and use : http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/  It's fairly simple but does a nice job showing most of the major exchanges in the world.

Shows the 30 day avg price volume etc and also the 24 hour price avg volume etc.  You can see, for example, Stamps 30day vol is 956k, or basically avg of 31k per day for the last 30 days.  Last 24 hour is only 8.8k.

[Dafar]

Here's my prediction:

Everyone is expecting amazing results in 2014... like super bullish results. But guess what, bitcoin doesn't give a fuck about what everyone thinks. In fact, it would rather do the opposite and be unpredictable like it's always been.

So 2014 will start slow, very slow.... I think it'll take until March or April for it to reach back to $1000-$1200. The highest it will go in 2014 is between $2000-$2500. I'd be more willing to bet it will go down from that ATH to around $1000-$2000 by the end of 2014.

Noobs will think bitcoin has stabilized to this value for good. The people who invested expecting 1000% returns will be disappointed, maybe even scared, and start cashing out. 2015 will begin slow as well. Stupid fucks form Business Insider and Forbes will make articles saying "has bitcoin lost its fire?" showing charts and talking about how it's not the hot investment as it used to be. Morale will be much lower than it is now (way too many bulls currently, imo).

And then sometime in 2015 bitcoin will skyrocket to 5 figures. No one will expect it and it'll probably happen in a matter of weeks. Those who hodled will be rewarded. People will start noticing and bitcoin will start gaining hype again. There will be another 'bubble' when it reaches 5 figures but from there on out bitcoin gaining or losing $1000 within a few days or a week will be normal volatility. It will reach new ATH's of $20K-$30K in 2015.


I'll bump this post when time comes so everyone can bow down and worship me for being right.

[T.Stuart]

Here's my prediction:

Everyone is expecting amazing results in 2014... like super bullish results. But guess what, bitcoin doesn't give a fuck about what everyone thinks. In fact, it would rather do the opposite and be unpredictable like it's always been.

So 2014 will start slow, very slow.... I think it'll take until March or April for it to reach back to $1000-$1200. The highest it will go in 2014 is between $2000-$2500. I'd be more willing to bet it will go down from that ATH to around $1000-$2000 by the end of 2014.

Noobs will think bitcoin has stabilized to this value for good. The people who invested expecting 1000% returns will be disappointed, maybe even scared, and start cashing out. 2015 will begin slow as well. Stupid fucks form Business Insider and Forbes will make articles saying "has bitcoin lost its fire?" showing charts and talking about how it's not the hot investment as it used to be. Morale will be much lower than it is now (way too many bulls currently, imo).

And then sometime in 2015 bitcoin will skyrocket to 5 figures. No one will expect it and it'll probably happen in a matter of weeks. Those who hodled will be rewarded. People will start noticing and bitcoin will start gaining hype again. There will be another 'bubble' when it reaches 5 figures but from there on out bitcoin gaining or losing $1000 within a few days or a week will be normal volatility. It will reach new ATH's of $20K-$30K in 2015.


I'll bump this post when time comes so everyone can bow down and worship me for being right.

Your timescale is much too long. Why would it fall out of the limelight now? This is tipping point so by 2015 it will either be nice and high (around $5,000 minimum I think) or completely out (which I believe is not likely). Just my black and white opinion there.

[Bobsurplus]

jan 3rd we will be over 1000 USD per coin

[Dafar]

Your timescale is much too long. Why would it fall out of the limelight now? This is tipping point so by 2015 it will either be nice and high (around $5,000 minimum I think) or completely out (which I believe is not likely). Just my black and white opinion there.

Maybe, I mean what do I know. But I still think 2014 will be a good year for bitcoin in terms of merchant adoption... but I think we will see those benefits (more money going into btc, significant increase of market cap due to merchant adoption) in 2015. I also think there will be more bad news in 2014 due to governments and banks being scared, and this will cause panic sells and make for a bumpy ride in 2014. Especially because more noobs are getting access to BTC.

[T.Stuart]

Maybe, I mean what do I know. But I still think 2014 will be a good year for bitcoin in terms of merchant adoption... but I think we will see those benefits (more money going into btc, significant increase of market cap due to merchant adoption) in 2015. I also think there will be more bad news in 2014 due to governments and banks being scared, and this will cause panic sells and make for a bumpy ride in 2014. Especially because more noobs are getting access to BTC.

I think people will want to get in early generally speaking. And for every noob who invests a week's wages there will be people already in for a while substantially increasing their investments - I believe there aren't that many "all in" at the moment 

[skivrmt]

Here's my prediction:

Everyone is expecting amazing results in 2014... like super bullish results. But guess what, bitcoin doesn't give a fuck about what everyone thinks. In fact, it would rather do the opposite and be unpredictable like it's always been.

So 2014 will start slow, very slow.... I think it'll take until March or April for it to reach back to $1000-$1200. The highest it will go in 2014 is between $2000-$2500. I'd be more willing to bet it will go down from that ATH to around $1000-$2000 by the end of 2014.

Noobs will think bitcoin has stabilized to this value for good. The people who invested expecting 1000% returns will be disappointed, maybe even scared, and start cashing out. 2015 will begin slow as well. Stupid fucks form Business Insider and Forbes will make articles saying "has bitcoin lost its fire?" showing charts and talking about how it's not the hot investment as it used to be. Morale will be much lower than it is now (way too many bulls currently, imo).

And then sometime in 2015 bitcoin will skyrocket to 5 figures. No one will expect it and it'll probably happen in a matter of weeks. Those who hodled will be rewarded. People will start noticing and bitcoin will start gaining hype again. There will be another 'bubble' when it reaches 5 figures but from there on out bitcoin gaining or losing $1000 within a few days or a week will be normal volatility. It will reach new ATH's of $20K-$30K in 2015.


I'll bump this post when time comes so everyone can bow down and worship me for being right.

Not a bad analysis at all actually.  I tend to agree with a lot of it.  I posted on FB under a friends questioning of bitcoin and then various friends chiming in.  My quote was essentially this.  Give it three years.  Bitcoin will be $10 or $5,000+ a coin, it's not going to stay at current levels.  Which?  I don't know.  But I like the risk to reward at these levels.  Save this post and come back in 3 years.

So very similar to what you're predicting.  Time will tell...