Bitcoin Market Psychology For Dummies: What to Expect in 2014

[kireinaha]

I'm curious to know how accurate my theory on Bitcoin rallies work. For months I have been a frequent visitor to this site, and I hear many stories such as, "I heard about Bitcoin in 2010/2011/2012 but didn't invest! I was so stupid!" etc, etc.

Of course, these people -- for the most part -- have since entered the market. From personal experience, I can say that it took me a couple times to hear about Bitcoin before I invested earlier this year. I have a feeling this is true for many people.

For example, when I speak about Bitcoin with friends or coworkers, most of them have heard about it in the past few months and know what it is, but none are investing. The sentiment seems to be that, 'Bitcoin has gone up in value a ton in the past couple years, but I'm probably too late now to make a profit. Oh well, life goes on.' Did you not feel the same way when you first heard about Bitcoin?

I think we're almost certain to have another rally in the new few months, at which point many of these people will join the bandwagon, pushing the price up by a few thousand dollars. Until then, we will probably remain in the current level of $600-$900.

Many people have only first heard of Bitcoin in the past couple months. For this reason, unless we have some kind of devastating news, I think we will see some serious fireworks next year. Long term (a few years out), I'm still feeling bearish, but 2014 should be a big year for crypto.

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[T.Stuart]

Good post.

Yes I agree with what you say: the sentiment for many is "too late". But beforehand there wasn't so much media attention to keep people informed that Bitcoin hadn't gone away and was in fact strengthening; now the media will be all over Bitcoin developments from Jan 1 2014. That's why I think the run up will come sooner than many expect.

It's also becoming much easier to buy Bitcoins, which is a big plus. When I opened my first wallet, exchange account etc. it took a while to learn to trust it. I bet a lot of people made some initial enquiries into wallets or got half way through the process of registering on an exchange before the crash, and these people will pick up quickly from where they left off.

[kireinaha]

Good post.

Yes I agree with what you say: the sentiment for many is "too late". But beforehand there wasn't so much media attention to keep people informed that Bitcoin hadn't gone away and was in fact strengthening; now the media will be all over Bitcoin developments from Jan 1 2014. That's why I think the run up will come sooner than many expect.

It's also becoming much easier to buy Bitcoins, which is a big plus. When I opened my first wallet, exchange account etc. it took a while to learn to trust it. I bet a lot of people made some initial enquiries into wallets or got half way through the process of registering on an exchange before the crash, and these people will pick up quickly from where they left off.

Yup, absolutely agree. Especially with the notion that the next run up will come earlier than many expect. I'd like to think February... perhaps the US debt ceiling debates will become a catalyst. Might be wishful thinking, but I expect something in the next few months will trigger it.

[mskryxz]

Yeah took me a couple times as well..

Heard about in 2010 through another forum and even installed the miner but stopped cause I couldn't game.

I heard about it a 2nd time in November 2012 because of Silk Road through a real life friend of mine. From there, I decided to do my research and follow it closely.

I made my move in April of 2013 acquiring mining machines and coins at $60-70.

And here I am today... still purchasing more at these prices lol.

[Wilhelm]

I heard it from a guy who knew about it since 2009.
He told me about it and I was interested, it was April this year. I thought Bitcoin was a great idea and the system looked sound to me.
A coworker and me said well why not buy one or two and see what happens. He never bought any.
Another coworker said we we're nuts and would never make a profit. He later came to my desk to admit he was completely wrong.

To make a long story short I ended up buying two videocards and mining 2 BTC. I was the only one in bitcoin at work.
Bitcoin went up and I made a good profit and invested more since I had made enough on the two BTC to cover losses if bitcoin would go sour on me.

Now I've got quite some BTC and the guy who told me about BTC has now only got himself just over 1 BTC. He could have bought in the $2 time period.

The point in this story is that sometimes you just need to take a chance and have faith and make a sensible investment even though it looks like your too late.
I truely believe that 2 years from now I will be bashing my head in why I didn't buy more when it was under $1000.

2014 is going to be a glorious year for bitcoin. It might not go to $10000 but I am grateful for every $ it will climb.
2014 will bring more shops and businesses to bitcoin from around the globe making it more and more a replacement for fiat.

 

[Lloydie]

I heard it from a guy who knew about it since 2009.
He told me about it and I was interested, it was April this year. I thought Bitcoin was a great idea and the system looked sound to me.
A coworker and me said well why not buy one or two and see what happens. He never bought any.
Another coworker said we we're nuts and would never make a profit. He later came to my desk to admit he was completely wrong.

To make a long story short I ended up buying two videocards and mining 2 BTC. I was the only one in bitcoin at work.
Bitcoin went up and I made a good profit and invested more since I had made enough on the two BTC to cover losses if bitcoin would go sour on me.

Now I've got quite some BTC and the guy who told me about BTC has now only got himself just over 1 BTC. He could have bought in the $2 time period.

The point in this story is that sometimes you just need to take a chance and have faith and make a sensible investment even though it looks like your too late.
I truely believe that 2 years from now I will be bashing my head in why I didn't buy more when it was under $1000.

2014 is going to be a glorious year for bitcoin. It might not go to $10000 but I am grateful for every $ it will climb.
2014 will bring more shops and businesses to bitcoin from around the globe making it more and more a replacement for fiat.

 

When bitcoin becomes more mainstream, we just have to remember that there are only ever going to be 21 million btcs in the universe.  

If just 1% of the human population wanted 1 bitcoin each, they will not be able to get 1 bitcoin each. At most, they can have less than one third of a bitcoin.

I'm making an educated guess that 1% of the human population will eventually come to understand what bitcoin represents in terms of the payments system and the blockchain, and that these people will want 1 bitcoin each or whatever they can get.

[Wekkel]

I think that Doge will go further than anyone could imagine. Not the value perse the actual use as Internet money and something kids exchange by mobile phone.

The ultimate spread of the idea of crypto currency.

Anyone who thinks Bitcoin is too expensive or a bubble, will love the ridiculous Doge which can be had in the 100's easily. Psychology matters.

Besides, people always love free money.

[traderCJ]

I think that Doge will go further than anyone could imagine. Not the value perse the actual use as Internet money and something kids exchange by mobile phone.

The ultimate spread of the idea of crypto currency.

Anyone who thinks Bitcoin is too expensive or a bubble, will love the ridiculous Doge which can be had in the 100's easily. Psychology matters.

Besides, people always love free money.

That's not good enough.  Any number of "kid-friendly" and "memey" coins can be thrust out there, each one to be had cheaper than its predecessor.

[Wekkel]

First mover advantage was sufficient for Bitcoin. But the market will decide.

[flagel8]

I think that Doge will go further than anyone could imagine. Not the value perse the actual use as Internet money...

Agree. You should peruse the Dogecoin Reddit. Very friendly, very helpful. And humans are GLEEFULLY tipping each other in Dogecoin. It's being USED as a currency, something that SOME coins have a strong resistance to.

Remember Napster? Myspace? Netscape?

I believe in Bitcoin. But I could be wrong. I also believe in Dogecoin, and plan to get some.

[traderCJ]

I think that Doge will go further than anyone could imagine. Not the value perse the actual use as Internet money...

Agree. You should peruse the Dogecoin Reddit. Very friendly, very helpful. And humans are GLEEFULLY tipping each other in Dogecoin. It's being USED as a currency, something that SOME coins have a strong resistance to.

Remember Napster? Myspace? Netscape?

I believe in Bitcoin. But I could be wrong. I also believe in Dogecoin, and plan to get some.

I still don't get it.  The memes are basically English speakers mocking Asians who don't have a firm command of English.  Oh, and there's a cute dog pic.

<tinfoil hat>Coins like this get publicity in order to undermine the perceived legitimacy of crypto currency in general.  The same way the elite turn serious investigations into their misdeeds into a circus sideshow.</tinfoil hat>