REAL market traders... are they here...?

[Mikcik]

Are there (on this forum) some REAL market traders. That means people who already had experience trading stocks, bonds, commodities, equities or i dont know what more, simple real life trade experience (preferably longer and preferably succesful)? Did someone for example worked as broker or on some exchange... etc. etc.

Is there any such fellow? Whats his take on bitcoin? What statistic research/test calculations and in what software (SPSS?) did you done.
whats your take on bitcoin...? (or do you know someone like this in your real life, whats his personal opinion on bitcoin)?

Please reply only people who fit the description above, i dont want (in this this thread) reaction of "so called bitcoin traders, that just FEEL (!) (:-O! :-D! ?) that price will go up and up and up" :-).

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[mmitech]

yes there is a "Pro trader" that visit this sub-forum, you should watch his movements and listen to every move and analyze, he also have a "club" of multi-millionaire investors...

he talks about how many millions he has made and what kind of cigars he smokes and fancy car he drives so I guess that give some credibility to his posts and predictions


this is his profile, watch his posts and keep us updated about taking his advises....     https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=68520

[JimboToronto]

Are there (on this forum) some REAL market traders. That means people who already had experience trading stocks, bonds, commodities, equities or i dont know what more, simple real life trade experience (preferably longer and preferably succesful)? Did someone for example worked as broker or on some exchange... etc. etc.

Is there any such fellow? Whats his take on bitcoin? What statistic research/test calculations and in what software (SPSS?) did you done.
whats your take on bitcoin...? (or do you know someone like this in your real life, whats his personal opinion on bitcoin)?

Please reply only people who fit the description above, i dont want (in this this thread) reaction of "so called bitcoin traders, that just FEEL (!) (:-O! :-D! ?) that price will go up and up and up" :-).

I'm sure there are many here who have varying amounts of experience working for brokerages and other investment firms.

Does that make them more real than the kind of amateur who predicts a bear market based on astrology, technical analysis, dreams or hunches? I don't think so.

One of the biggest mistakes that noobs make is to assume that what works with stocks, forex and commodities will work with Bitcoin. History has repeatedly dis-proven that.

[traderCJ]

yes there is a "Pro trader" that visit this sub-forum, you should watch his movements and listen to every move and analyze, he also have a "club" of multi-millionaire investors...

he talks about how many millions he has made and what kind of cigars he smokes and fancy car he drives so I guess that give some credibility to his posts and predictions


this is his profile, watch his posts and keep us updated about taking his advises....     https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=68520

Generally rpteila makes lousy predictions (deliberately or not, who knows?), use caution.  Also, I have my doubts as to whether he really is a big fish.  It's very easy to fake such things.

[jballs]

Are there (on this forum) some REAL market traders. That means people who already had experience trading stocks, bonds, commodities, equities or i dont know what more, simple real life trade experience (preferably longer and preferably succesful)? Did someone for example worked as broker or on some exchange... etc. etc.

Is there any such fellow? Whats his take on bitcoin? What statistic research/test calculations and in what software (SPSS?) did you done.
whats your take on bitcoin...? (or do you know someone like this in your real life, whats his personal opinion on bitcoin)?

Please reply only people who fit the description above, i dont want (in this this thread) reaction of "so called bitcoin traders, that just FEEL (!) (:-O! :-D! ?) that price will go up and up and up" :-).

Well, yes. I have about 20 years experience trading. Predominantly futures and derivatives, commodities, currencies, interest rates, energies, etc. I was an institutional/retail broker for about 8 years and owned my own firm for most of those. Now I am a hedging consultant and prop trader, which is nearly the same thing just don't do brokerage anymore because I don't like most people when they become clients. When they are just people I like them more.

I actually wrote a book on it, you can borrow it free if you have amazon prime

http://amzn.com/B0091XN1KS

Anyway my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar so I won't trade it there yet. MTGox looks ok but then not really, BTCe is a disaster waiting to happen- they might be 100% legit and stay that way but who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night? US exchanges have slipped a notch since Corzine and PFG debacles but I can still sleep at night with my money at the CME. None of these exchanges are transparent or accessible enough to warrant the risk afaic. Not disparaging them, I don't know, just scares the hell out of me.

So, it's a buy and hold market for me. I may put small amount into coinbase to buy altcoins on spec. But larg bitcoin investment is strictly through escrow/localbitcoin face to face with my gun. And then I am camping on them. I'm very bullish, long term. I'd like to trade the action because the swings are great, and the trend is steady considering the volatility. But its not worth the risk of disappearing account to me. Just going to hold and trade commodities at the merc to grind out in the meanwhile.

Hope that helps...

[Lone Wolf]

I'm sure there are many here who have varying amounts of experience working for brokerages and other investment firms.

Does that make them more real than the kind of amateur who predicts a bear market based on astrology, technical analysis, dreams or hunches? I don't think so.

One of the biggest mistakes that noobs make is to assume that what works with stocks, forex and commodities will work with Bitcoin. History has repeatedly dis-proven that.

So you think technical analysis is equivalent to astrology, dreams and hunches?

[notme]

Wait, I trade in the bitcoin market, so I am a "market trader". But because I don't trade paper promises for other paper promises, I'm not "real".  So am I imaginary?

[Lone Wolf]

Wait, I trade in the bitcoin market, so I am a "market trader". But because I don't trade paper promises for other paper promises, I'm not "real".  So am I imaginary?

By real, he means a trader in markets that have a long, established history of more than the 4 years that btc has.  Stocks have been traded since the 1700's.  Technically commodities like gold and iron etc. have been traded since before christ lived.

Not that anyone cares, but I have traded stocks since 1995.

[byronbb]

Are there (on this forum) some REAL market traders. That means people who already had experience trading stocks, bonds, commodities, equities or i dont know what more, simple real life trade experience (preferably longer and preferably succesful)? Did someone for example worked as broker or on some exchange... etc. etc.

Is there any such fellow? Whats his take on bitcoin? What statistic research/test calculations and in what software (SPSS?) did you done.
whats your take on bitcoin...? (or do you know someone like this in your real life, whats his personal opinion on bitcoin)?

Please reply only people who fit the description above, i dont want (in this this thread) reaction of "so called bitcoin traders, that just FEEL (!) (:-O! :-D! ?) that price will go up and up and up" :-).

Well, yes. I have about 20 years experience trading. Predominantly futures and derivatives, commodities, currencies, interest rates, energies, etc. I was an institutional/retail broker for about 8 years and owned my own firm for most of those. Now I am a hedging consultant and prop trader, which is nearly the same thing just don't do brokerage anymore because I don't like most people when they become clients. When they are just people I like them more.

I actually wrote a book on it, you can borrow it free if you have amazon prime

http://amzn.com/B0091XN1KS

Anyway my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar so I won't trade it there yet. MTGox looks ok but then not really, BTCe is a disaster waiting to happen- they might be 100% legit and stay that way but who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night? US exchanges have slipped a notch since Corzine and PFG debacles but I can still sleep at night with my money at the CME. None of these exchanges are transparent or accessible enough to warrant the risk afaic. Not disparaging them, I don't know, just scares the hell out of me.

So, it's a buy and hold market for me. I may put small amount into coinbase to buy altcoins on spec. But larg bitcoin investment is strictly through escrow/localbitcoin face to face with my gun. And then I am camping on them. I'm very bullish, long term. I'd like to trade the action because the swings are great, and the trend is steady considering the volatility. But its not worth the risk of disappearing account to me. Just going to hold and trade commodities at the merc to grind out in the meanwhile.

Hope that helps...

This is my new Holder's Manifesto, going to pull it out any time some muppet starts going on about how buying and holding is foolish versus trading.

[notme]

Wait, I trade in the bitcoin market, so I am a "market trader". But because I don't trade paper promises for other paper promises, I'm not "real".  So am I imaginary?

By real, he means a trader in markets that have a long, established history of more than the 4 years that btc has.  Stocks have been traded since the 1700's.  Technically commodities like gold and iron etc. have been traded since before christ lived.

Not that anyone cares, but I have traded stocks since 1995.

I buy and sell goods and services all the time for both cash and bitcoin.  Doesn't that mean I trade in "real" markets? (Not that I agree that Bitcoin markets are unreal, but I'm trying to play along).

If that doesn't count, why does commodity trading before Christ count?

[Lone Wolf]

I buy and sell goods and services all the time for both cash and bitcoin.  Doesn't that mean I trade in "real" markets? (Not that I agree that Bitcoin markets are unreal, but I'm trying to play along).

If that doesn't count, why does commodity trading before Christ count?

Real was a poor choice of words on the OPs part.  You know what he meant.

[JimboToronto]

I'm sure there are many here who have varying amounts of experience working for brokerages and other investment firms.

Does that make them more real than the kind of amateur who predicts a bear market based on astrology, technical analysis, dreams or hunches? I don't think so.

One of the biggest mistakes that noobs make is to assume that what works with stocks, forex and commodities will work with Bitcoin. History has repeatedly dis-proven that.

So you think technical analysis is equivalent to astrology, dreams and hunches?

For Bitcoin, yes to varying degrees.

Astrology obviously is pseudoscience but hunches and dreams probably have a more valid foundation based on human intuition and subconcious thought processes.

Elliot Wave theory and other TA is based on observation of market trends in things other than Bitcoin.

[Lone Wolf]

Well, yes. I have about 20 years experience trading. Predominantly futures and derivatives, commodities, currencies, interest rates, energies, etc. I was an institutional/retail broker for about 8 years and owned my own firm for most of those. Now I am a hedging consultant and prop trader, which is nearly the same thing just don't do brokerage anymore because I don't like most people when they become clients. When they are just people I like them more.

I actually wrote a book on it, you can borrow it free if you have amazon prime

http://amzn.com/B0091XN1KS

Anyway my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar so I won't trade it there yet. MTGox looks ok but then not really, BTCe is a disaster waiting to happen- they might be 100% legit and stay that way but who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night? US exchanges have slipped a notch since Corzine and PFG debacles but I can still sleep at night with my money at the CME. None of these exchanges are transparent or accessible enough to warrant the risk afaic. Not disparaging them, I don't know, just scares the hell out of me.

So, it's a buy and hold market for me. I may put small amount into coinbase to buy altcoins on spec. But larg bitcoin investment is strictly through escrow/localbitcoin face to face with my gun. And then I am camping on them. I'm very bullish, long term. I'd like to trade the action because the swings are great, and the trend is steady considering the volatility. But its not worth the risk of disappearing account to me. Just going to hold and trade commodities at the merc to grind out in the meanwhile.

Hope that helps...

This is *exactly* why i don't trade btc.  I hear way too many horror stories about people not being able to get their money out of btc exchanges, not getting good fills on their buy or sell orders or getting screwed somehow.  i just watch the btc charts and post on these forums out of curiosity.  I'll stick to trading stocks for the time being.  There's enough money to be made there that I don't need to risk my money at some fly by night btc exchange that is based in Bulgaria or some shady country like that.

And Mt. Gox was originally a Magic the Gathering trading site???  no thanks.

[jamesc760]

I'm sure there are many here who have varying amounts of experience working for brokerages and other investment firms.

Does that make them more real than the kind of amateur who predicts a bear market based on astrology, technical analysis, dreams or hunches? I don't think so.

One of the biggest mistakes that noobs make is to assume that what works with stocks, forex and commodities will work with Bitcoin. History has repeatedly dis-proven that.

So you think technical analysis is equivalent to astrology, dreams and hunches?

in my humble opinion, in order of reliability:

dreams, hunches, astrology, technical analysis

from high to low.

[Mikcik]

"So you think technical analysis is the equivalent as astrology, dreams and hunches?"

Love this :-)

Thanks for the reply.

And you "profi" guys do "day trading" (i think its called that way) with bitcoins, using the volatility for your gains? Do you do it with all of your coins, or only some of them?

What do you think about the gov. regulation/ban. Stupid people are ranting about how wonderfull will the year 2014 be, but they fail to realize that until now, bitcoin didnt face any threat from any gov. because it was a stupid small market nobody cared of... Thats changed now, and still this "dream investing" "people" are bullish in the year 2014, totally ignoring the gov. factor, saying bitcoin can NOT be destroyed... well you know, it can be destoreyd pretty easy... (gov. bans businnes from accepting bitcoin, the price crashes and stays there...).

what your take on this issue?

[Lone Wolf]

For Bitcoin, yes to varying degrees.

Astrology obviously is pseudoscience but hunches and dreams probably have a more valid foundation based on human intuition and subconcious thought processes.

Elliot Wave theory and other TA is based on observation of market trends in things other than Bitcoin.

Hunches and dreams = emotions.  Investing/trading on emotions is like burning money.  Don't even get me started on astrology.  Might as well trade according to your horoscope in your local paper.

Anything that has prices that can be charted can be analyzed according to TA.  Btc has prices can be charted.  Ergo TA can be used on btc.

[Lone Wolf]

in my humble opinion, in order of reliability:

dreams, hunches, astrology, technical analysis

from high to low.

troll

[RyNinDaCleM]

in my humble opinion, in order of reliability:

dreams, hunches, astrology, technical analysis

from high to low.

troll

They just don't know how to use it, so they dismiss it.

[Lone Wolf]

in my humble opinion, in order of reliability:

dreams, hunches, astrology, technical analysis

from high to low.

troll

They just don't know how to use it, so they dismiss it.

good point.  people ridicule what they don't understand.

[JimboToronto]

Hunches and dreams = emotions.  

That's a bold statement without anything to back it up.

Very little is known about the inner workings of intuition and interpretable dreams.

To write them off as "emotions" while treating TA as an actual science (and not just a craft) is pretty presumptive.