REAL market traders... are they here...?

[Lone Wolf]

"So you think technical analysis is the equivalent as astrology, dreams and hunches?"

Love this :-)

Thanks for the reply.

And you "profi" guys do "day trading" (i think its called that way) with bitcoins, using the volatility for your gains? Do you do it with all of your coins, or only some of them?

What do you think about the gov. regulation/ban. Stupid people are ranting about how wonderfull will the year 2014 be, but they fail to realize that until now, bitcoin didnt face any threat from any gov. because it was a stupid small market nobody cared of... Thats changed now, and still this "dream investing" "people" are bullish in the year 2014, totally ignoring the gov. factor, saying bitcoin can NOT be destroyed... well you know, it can be destoreyd pretty easy... (gov. bans businnes from accepting bitcoin, the price crashes and stays there...).

what your take on this issue?

I don't trade bitcoins.  I used to day trade stocks a long time ago, but i don't anymore.  I invest in stocks now.

Govt regulation can be a good and bad thing.  They can be good b/c they can legitimize something new like bitcoin or they can outright ban something.  As for people who think bitcoin will replace govt issued fiat money anytime in the near future (meaning in the next 50 years) they are delusional.  The govt will never allow a currency that they have no control over.

[1715173084]

1715173084

[1715173084]

1715173084

[1715173084]

1715173084

[1715173084]

1715173084

[jballs]

Most traders lose. The more they trade, the more likely they are to lose. I have theories about why, but they are not important. It's just the way it is. That said, I have encouraged people to trade my whole life and still do. A few win. It's like most Hollywood starlets end up waiting tables. But if they didn't go there would be no Hollywood. 

Don't kid yourselves though, the odds are hugely against you. What bitcoin has to offer is a parabolic rise IF it plays out that way. My position is to not fuck it up trying to pick up nickels in front of a freight train. Get in, sit down, shut up, and hold on.

Two cents from an old man.

[JimboToronto]

The govt will never allow a currency that they have no control over.

"The govt"?

Which government is "the" government? Which jurisdiction?

[JimboToronto]

Most traders lose. The more they trade, the more likely they are to lose. I have theories about why, but they are not important. It's just the way it is. That said, I have encouraged people to trade my whole life and still do. A few win. It's like most Hollywood starlets end up waiting tables. But if they didn't go there would be no Hollywood. 

Don't kid yourselves though, the odds are hugely against you. What bitcoin has to offer is a parabolic rise IF it plays out that way. My position is to not fuck it up trying to pick up nickels in front of a freight train. Get in, sit down, shut up, and hold on.

Two cents from an old man.

Post of the year.

[Kenshin]

I trade in Spread Betting of Forex, Index and so on.

[Lone Wolf]

Hunches and dreams = emotions.  

That's a bold statement without anything to back it up.

Very little is known about the inner workings of intuition and interpretable dreams.

To write them off as "emotions" while treating TA as an actual science (and not just a craft) is pretty presumptive.

TA is simply reading a visual representation (aka chart) of prices in daily, weekly, hourly etc. increments.  Those are real things that have actually happened in real life.  TA does not claim to predict exactly future price movements.  It merely provides the trader with an educated framework with which to increase the probability of profitable trades.  It also allows a trader to identify entry and exit points with limited downside and defined exit levels should a trade move against him.  It also identifies previous support and resistance levels.

I don't know what your knowlege of TA is or who told it was a "science" like biology or physics but its not.  No one who uses it should claim it to be.  Its simply chart reading.

And do you not believe that hunches or intuition and dreams are not influenced by human emotions such as fear and greed or excitement?

[Lone Wolf]

The govt will never allow a currency that they have no control over.

"The govt"?

Which government is "the" government? Which jurisdiction?

I live in the USA so I'm referring the US federal govt.  The only one that has the authority to issue currency in the US.

[Lone Wolf]

Most traders lose. The more they trade, the more likely they are to lose. I have theories about why, but they are not important. It's just the way it is. That said, I have encouraged people to trade my whole life and still do. A few win. It's like most Hollywood starlets end up waiting tables. But if they didn't go there would be no Hollywood. 

Don't kid yourselves though, the odds are hugely against you. What bitcoin has to offer is a parabolic rise IF it plays out that way. My position is to not fuck it up trying to pick up nickels in front of a freight train. Get in, sit down, shut up, and hold on.

Two cents from an old man.

Agreed.  I think the statistic is that 95 or 98% of people who try trading lose and fail at trading.  More trading = more losses or at least less profits. 

Its because those 98% can't overcome human emotion of fear and greed/excitement when trading.  They become fearful when prices drop and trades go against them so they sell.  They get excited or greedy when prices go up or when they have profits and they buy or they hold when they should be selling and taking profits.  Its the old buy high, sell low.

They can't follow the old Warren Buffet mantra, "Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful."  In other words buy low, sell high.

[BittBurger]

my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar ... who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night?

So Coinbase is a threat ?  LOL ...
Yes all these exchanges will just up and take all our money with them.
Thats a rational paranoia.
Honestly that tells me you aren't too familiar with what is going on.  All due respect.

To the original poster:  the LAST people you want to ask about bitcoin are the people who have been involved IN ANY CAPACITY in the obsolete financial world.

Those are the biggest naysayers, the most skeptical, the least informed, and the most confused by what Bitcoin is.

Bitcoin violates every rule they have ever learned, and it drives them insane.  Please only use such individuals for personal entertainment.

-B-

[notme]

The govt will never allow a currency that they have no control over.

"The govt"?

Which government is "the" government? Which jurisdiction?

I live in the USA so I'm referring the US federal govt.  The only one that has the authority to issue currency in the US.

Besides the point that the US accounts for only 4% of the global population and assuming "the govt" will be interpreted as "the US govt" is silly, there is also the issue that the US government has delegated its currency issuance authority the the Federal Reserve, which is a privately owned bank.

[jballs]

my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar ... who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night?

So Coinbase is a threat ?  LOL ...
Yes all these exchanges will just up and take all our money with them.
Thats a rational paranoia.
Honestly that tells me you aren't too familiar with what is going on.  All due respect.

To the original poster:  the LAST people you want to ask about bitcoin are the people who have been involved IN ANY CAPACITY in the obsolete financial world.

Those are the biggest naysayers, the most skeptical, the least informed, and the most confused by what Bitcoin is.

Bitcoin violates every rule they have ever learned, and it drives them insane.  Please only use such individuals for personal entertainment.

-B-

Where is Sheep Market? Where is their money? Where is Silk Road? Where is BuySellBitCo.in ? Where  is....hang on...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=83794.0


 Bitcoin is cool but it is not going to end finance, sorry. And until there is legal and technological stability the exchanges are high risk. I do not care at all where you put your money though. Good luck.

[wren]

Don't kid yourselves though, the odds are hugely against you. What bitcoin has to offer is a parabolic rise IF it plays out that way. My position is to not fuck it up trying to pick up nickels in front of a freight train. Get in, sit down, shut up, and hold on.

win.

[traderCJ]

Don't kid yourselves though, the odds are hugely against you.  My position is to not fuck it up trying to pick up nickels in front of a freight train.

God damn, that's sig-worthy.

my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar ... who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night?

So Coinbase is a threat ?  LOL ...
Yes all these exchanges will just up and take all our money with them.
Thats a rational paranoia.
Honestly that tells me you aren't too familiar with what is going on.  All due respect.

To the original poster:  the LAST people you want to ask about bitcoin are the people who have been involved IN ANY CAPACITY in the obsolete financial world.

Those are the biggest naysayers, the most skeptical, the least informed, and the most confused by what Bitcoin is.

Bitcoin violates every rule they have ever learned, and it drives them insane.  Please only use such individuals for personal entertainment.

-B-

Huh?  There are probably a dozen exchanges which have been hacked, shut down by a gov, or had owners who absconded with client funds/coins.  It's a real threat.  It boggles my mind that whales are comfortable sitting on millions on these exchanges.

Regarding your disdain for professionals from the "obsolete financial world" .. you obviously don't understand the parallels between Bitcoin and forex/commodities trading.

[ElectricMucus]

I'm picturing a freight train loaded with nickels derailing inside a tunnel and them shooting out at the other side. That's bitcoin for me.

[traderCJ]

I'm picturing a freight train loaded with nickels derailing inside a tunnel and them shooting out at the other side. That's bitcoin for me.

K

[jballs]

For the newbies, a point of clarification.

The architecture of bitcoin is a radical departure from most of the financial world, but not all of it. In absolute terminology, they are a structured derivative. Most likely if they survive (I am betting they will), they will ultimately be absorbed into the financial industry as that product type.

While "swapping paper back and forth" is a useful metaphor, the fact is virtually all derivatives and currencies are already digital. I have not ever in my two decades actively trading transacted any paper for any other paper, aside from a brief foray into the trading floor where there were actually paper tickets, but even those represented something else, not the paper.

In the last year I have bought and sold soybeans, wheat, corn, natural gas, gold, platinum, palladium, crude oil, euros, yen, SA Rand, and option on several of those as well.

I have only been to a soybean field once ever. Didn't like it. Have enjoyed the occasional edamame with my sushi. I couldn't pick out a spring wheat from a winter wheat from a tumbleweed in a line-up, but I am a professional consultant advising wheat farmers and end users for risk management and price protection. I have no natural gas pipeline or storage facility, I have no idea where my gas goes when I sell it or where it was when I bought it. I have never held a yen in my hand, have had a few euros on occasion for spending. It is all digital.

The difference between trading natural gas or soybeans or yen is a matter of making a secure digital transaction over an exchange. Having knowledge of the markets (and yes, if you are a GOOD technical analyst it is immensely helpful, however if you are a bad technician god help you) is important. Having a deep understanding of risk management and refined trading skills is vastly more important.

You are all speculating on bitcoin. I don't care what your premise is, the cardinal rule of trading is the future is unpredictable. Thus you must understand the mental environment of a successful speculator to trade bitcoin, or anything else. Anything that fluctuates in value and has an available counterparty is a vehicle for speculation. In this way bitcoin is no different than any other commodity we trade, save for the much higher potential of high sigma price fluctuation. Which is a good thing. If you're a speculator.

Make no mistake, those of you who believe you have reinvented the wheel and are knocking the old hands in this game, we will watch you ride your emotional rollercoaster, and in the end we will quietly, cautiously, mop up the floor with what is left of you. Trade humble, or go broke. It is a law. Write it down.

later...

 [edit- Thanks all for the props above, always appreciated...)

[windjc]

my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar ... who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night?

So Coinbase is a threat ?  LOL ...
Yes all these exchanges will just up and take all our money with them.
Thats a rational paranoia.
Honestly that tells me you aren't too familiar with what is going on.  All due respect.

To the original poster:  the LAST people you want to ask about bitcoin are the people who have been involved IN ANY CAPACITY in the obsolete financial world.

Those are the biggest naysayers, the most skeptical, the least informed, and the most confused by what Bitcoin is.

Bitcoin violates every rule they have ever learned, and it drives them insane.  Please only use such individuals for personal entertainment.

-B-

Where is Sheep Market? Where is their money? Where is Silk Road? Where is BuySellBitCo.in ? Where  is....hang on...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=83794.0


 Bitcoin is cool but it is not going to end finance, sorry. And until there is legal and technological stability the exchanges are high risk. I do not care at all where you put your money though. Good luck.

You should read and learn about the history of Bitstamp, how it started, who runs it and what their track record is. I know you may be waiting for JP Morgan () to start a bitcoin exchange, but until then, there are safe ways to trade.

[Lone Wolf]

my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar ... who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night?

So Coinbase is a threat ?  LOL ...
Yes all these exchanges will just up and take all our money with them.
Thats a rational paranoia.
Honestly that tells me you aren't too familiar with what is going on.  All due respect.

To the original poster:  the LAST people you want to ask about bitcoin are the people who have been involved IN ANY CAPACITY in the obsolete financial world.

Those are the biggest naysayers, the most skeptical, the least informed, and the most confused by what Bitcoin is.

Bitcoin violates every rule they have ever learned, and it drives them insane.  Please only use such individuals for personal entertainment.

-B-

So what is your response to this BittBurger?  "Stay away from Coinbase" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=344604.0

99.9% of bitcoin owners are trading with a few hundred to a few thousand dollars worth of bitcoins.  The total market cap of bitcoin is $12 billion dollars.

The total assets under management of all stock and bond funds and hedge funds are in the trillions.  The FOREX market trades $4 TRILLION dollars a day.  Hardly "obsolete."  

Your unwarranted arrogance is laughable.

[skivrmt]

The govt will never allow a currency that they have no control over.

"The govt"?

Which government is "the" government? Which jurisdiction?

I live in the USA so I'm referring the US federal govt.  The only one that has the authority to issue currency in the US.

2 points on this thread. There are real traders from real exchanges. And some of them make money doing it, no doubt. Most will not. Those who do not will not admit it the the sample responses is always skewed.

The more the price the goes up, the more governments worldwide will take action. Some negatively, some positively.  I tend to believe more negatively.  But I also think it wont matter and XBT will become semi mainstream.

[bassclef]

For the newbies, a point of clarification.

The architecture of bitcoin is a radical departure from most of the financial world, but not all of it. In absolute terminology, they are a structured derivative. Most likely if they survive (I am betting they will), they will ultimately be absorbed into the financial industry as that product type.

While "swapping paper back and forth" is a useful metaphor, the fact is virtually all derivatives and currencies are already digital. I have not ever in my two decades actively trading transacted any paper for any other paper, aside from a brief foray into the trading floor where there were actually paper tickets, but even those represented something else, not the paper.

In the last year I have bought and sold soybeans, wheat, corn, natural gas, gold, platinum, palladium, crude oil, euros, yen, SA Rand, and option on several of those as well.

I have only been to a soybean field once ever. Didn't like it. Have enjoyed the occasional edamame with my sushi. I couldn't pick out a spring wheat from a winter wheat from a tumbleweed in a line-up, but I am a professional consultant advising wheat farmers and end users for risk management and price protection. I have no natural gas pipeline or storage facility, I have no idea where my gas goes when I sell it or where it was when I bought it. I have never held a yen in my hand, have had a few euros on occasion for spending. It is all digital.

The difference between trading natural gas or soybeans or yen is a matter of making a secure digital transaction over an exchange. Having knowledge of the markets (and yes, if you are a GOOD technical analyst it is immensely helpful, however if you are a bad technician god help you) is important. Having a deep understanding of risk management and refined trading skills is vastly more important.

You are all speculating on bitcoin. I don't care what your premise is, the cardinal rule of trading is the future is unpredictable. Thus you must understand the mental environment of a successful speculator to trade bitcoin, or anything else. Anything that fluctuates in value and has an available counterparty is a vehicle for speculation. In this way bitcoin is no different than any other commodity we trade, save for the much higher potential of high sigma price fluctuation. Which is a good thing. If you're a speculator.

Make no mistake, those of you who believe you have reinvented the wheel and are knocking the old hands in this game, we will watch you ride your emotional rollercoaster, and in the end we will quietly, cautiously, mop up the floor with what is left of you. Trade humble, or go broke. It is a law. Write it down.

later...

 [edit- Thanks all for the props above, always appreciated...)

Your post makes me wonder if you have a good understanding of what Bitcoin actually is. Under the hood, I mean.