REAL market traders... are they here...?

[Lone Wolf]

For the newbies, a point of clarification.

The architecture of bitcoin is a radical departure from most of the financial world, but not all of it. In absolute terminology, they are a structured derivative. Most likely if they survive (I am betting they will), they will ultimately be absorbed into the financial industry as that product type.

While "swapping paper back and forth" is a useful metaphor, the fact is virtually all derivatives and currencies are already digital. I have not ever in my two decades actively trading transacted any paper for any other paper, aside from a brief foray into the trading floor where there were actually paper tickets, but even those represented something else, not the paper.

In the last year I have bought and sold soybeans, wheat, corn, natural gas, gold, platinum, palladium, crude oil, euros, yen, SA Rand, and option on several of those as well.

I have only been to a soybean field once ever. Didn't like it. Have enjoyed the occasional edamame with my sushi. I couldn't pick out a spring wheat from a winter wheat from a tumbleweed in a line-up, but I am a professional consultant advising wheat farmers and end users for risk management and price protection. I have no natural gas pipeline or storage facility, I have no idea where my gas goes when I sell it or where it was when I bought it. I have never held a yen in my hand, have had a few euros on occasion for spending. It is all digital.

The difference between trading natural gas or soybeans or yen is a matter of making a secure digital transaction over an exchange. Having knowledge of the markets (and yes, if you are a GOOD technical analyst it is immensely helpful, however if you are a bad technician god help you) is important. Having a deep understanding of risk management and refined trading skills is vastly more important.

You are all speculating on bitcoin. I don't care what your premise is, the cardinal rule of trading is the future is unpredictable. Thus you must understand the mental environment of a successful speculator to trade bitcoin, or anything else. Anything that fluctuates in value and has an available counterparty is a vehicle for speculation. In this way bitcoin is no different than any other commodity we trade, save for the much higher potential of high sigma price fluctuation. Which is a good thing. If you're a speculator.

Make no mistake, those of you who believe you have reinvented the wheel and are knocking the old hands in this game, we will watch you ride your emotional rollercoaster, and in the end we will quietly, cautiously, mop up the floor with what is left of you. Trade humble, or go broke. It is a law. Write it down.

later...

 [edit- Thanks all for the props above, always appreciated...)

Great post jballs, but I fear it will fall mostly on deaf ears.  You see most of the bitcoin true believers are 20 somethings who have never traded professionally or for an extended period of time for that matter.  They have never traded during a speculative bubble like the late 90's tech bubble or the 2008 oil bubble.  They think they have everything figured out and that older people have no idea what they are talking and nothing to add to the conversation.

They think bitcoin will take over the world in short order and render the dollar, euro, yen, gold, Fed, ECB, BOJ, investment banks, hedge funds, stock and bond markets completely obsolete and useless.  According to them bitcoin does not follow any of the old rules of trading.  Charts, technical analysis, risk management, profit taking, trading experience are completely worthless.  Bitcoin is a completely new animal.  In short, "this time its different."

Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest speculators of all time, once said, "There is nothing new in speculating.  There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills.  Whatever happens in financial markets today has happened before and will happen again."

[jballs]

You should read and learn about the history of Bitstamp, how it started, who runs it and what their track record is. I know you may be waiting for JP Morgan () to start a bitcoin exchange, but until then, there are safe ways to trade.

This is a good place to make the point. Bitstamp?

https://www.bitstamp.net/about_us/

Who the fuck are they, why do they list an office in the UK but operate out of Slovenia and have no names, faces, anything?

Why the fuck would I send those "people" money and how deserving would I be of getting swindled if I did? I get great offers from Nigeria all the time but there is a pattern see...

And like I say I have no reason to believe they are not legit. I am just not naive enough to find out.

As for JPMorgan, they are trying. Goldman is already in though

http://www.coindesk.com/goldman-sachs-director-board-bitcoin-startup-circle/

And in case you haven't noticed, Coinbase has a Goldman alum running the shop too. Forex dealer, kudos to him for leaving the vipers nest of GS forex dealing, but here is what you don't know. Give me an opaque exchange with no regulation and I will show you 500 ways to steal all day long with nobody noticing. Most of the banks run a bid/offer window you can run a truck through, they fill you at the bottom or top of the day and keep the spread and it's a sweet business if your clients don't even know it is a game, let alone how to know when they get played.

Your enterprise will probably be cannibalized by the Bilderberg whether you like it or not. I wish it were not so, but look at where the internet went...straight into the nutsack of the New Stasi. No reason to believe this will be any different, pleasantly surprise me if I'm wrong though.

[Lone Wolf]

For the newbies, a point of clarification.

The architecture of bitcoin is a radical departure from most of the financial world, but not all of it. In absolute terminology, they are a structured derivative. Most likely if they survive (I am betting they will), they will ultimately be absorbed into the financial industry as that product type.

While "swapping paper back and forth" is a useful metaphor, the fact is virtually all derivatives and currencies are already digital. I have not ever in my two decades actively trading transacted any paper for any other paper, aside from a brief foray into the trading floor where there were actually paper tickets, but even those represented something else, not the paper.

In the last year I have bought and sold soybeans, wheat, corn, natural gas, gold, platinum, palladium, crude oil, euros, yen, SA Rand, and option on several of those as well.

I have only been to a soybean field once ever. Didn't like it. Have enjoyed the occasional edamame with my sushi. I couldn't pick out a spring wheat from a winter wheat from a tumbleweed in a line-up, but I am a professional consultant advising wheat farmers and end users for risk management and price protection. I have no natural gas pipeline or storage facility, I have no idea where my gas goes when I sell it or where it was when I bought it. I have never held a yen in my hand, have had a few euros on occasion for spending. It is all digital.

The difference between trading natural gas or soybeans or yen is a matter of making a secure digital transaction over an exchange. Having knowledge of the markets (and yes, if you are a GOOD technical analyst it is immensely helpful, however if you are a bad technician god help you) is important. Having a deep understanding of risk management and refined trading skills is vastly more important.

You are all speculating on bitcoin. I don't care what your premise is, the cardinal rule of trading is the future is unpredictable. Thus you must understand the mental environment of a successful speculator to trade bitcoin, or anything else. Anything that fluctuates in value and has an available counterparty is a vehicle for speculation. In this way bitcoin is no different than any other commodity we trade, save for the much higher potential of high sigma price fluctuation. Which is a good thing. If you're a speculator.

Make no mistake, those of you who believe you have reinvented the wheel and are knocking the old hands in this game, we will watch you ride your emotional rollercoaster, and in the end we will quietly, cautiously, mop up the floor with what is left of you. Trade humble, or go broke. It is a law. Write it down.

later...

 [edit- Thanks all for the props above, always appreciated...)

Your post makes me wonder if you have a good understanding of what Bitcoin actually is. Under the hood, I mean.

You see what I mean?  This post illustrates my point exactly.  jballs just made a point that speculation is speculation regarless of the vehicle be it soybeans, crude oil, currencies, stocks or bitcoins.  

"You are all speculating on bitcoin. I don't care what your premise is, the cardinal rule of trading is the future is unpredictable. Thus you must understand the mental environment of a successful speculator to trade bitcoin, or anything else. Anything that fluctuates in value and has an available counterparty is a vehicle for speculation. In this way bitcoin is no different than any other commodity we trade

and then bassclef basically makes the point that bitcoins are different from all those things.

half the time bitcoin true believers claim it is a currency that will replace the dollar soon as a means of exchange.  then when someone compares it to currencies like the dollar that fluctuate in value and can be traded, they say "no!  its completely different!"

[bassclef]

For the newbies, a point of clarification.

The architecture of bitcoin is a radical departure from most of the financial world, but not all of it. In absolute terminology, they are a structured derivative. Most likely if they survive (I am betting they will), they will ultimately be absorbed into the financial industry as that product type.

While "swapping paper back and forth" is a useful metaphor, the fact is virtually all derivatives and currencies are already digital. I have not ever in my two decades actively trading transacted any paper for any other paper, aside from a brief foray into the trading floor where there were actually paper tickets, but even those represented something else, not the paper.

In the last year I have bought and sold soybeans, wheat, corn, natural gas, gold, platinum, palladium, crude oil, euros, yen, SA Rand, and option on several of those as well.

I have only been to a soybean field once ever. Didn't like it. Have enjoyed the occasional edamame with my sushi. I couldn't pick out a spring wheat from a winter wheat from a tumbleweed in a line-up, but I am a professional consultant advising wheat farmers and end users for risk management and price protection. I have no natural gas pipeline or storage facility, I have no idea where my gas goes when I sell it or where it was when I bought it. I have never held a yen in my hand, have had a few euros on occasion for spending. It is all digital.

The difference between trading natural gas or soybeans or yen is a matter of making a secure digital transaction over an exchange. Having knowledge of the markets (and yes, if you are a GOOD technical analyst it is immensely helpful, however if you are a bad technician god help you) is important. Having a deep understanding of risk management and refined trading skills is vastly more important.

You are all speculating on bitcoin. I don't care what your premise is, the cardinal rule of trading is the future is unpredictable. Thus you must understand the mental environment of a successful speculator to trade bitcoin, or anything else. Anything that fluctuates in value and has an available counterparty is a vehicle for speculation. In this way bitcoin is no different than any other commodity we trade, save for the much higher potential of high sigma price fluctuation. Which is a good thing. If you're a speculator.

Make no mistake, those of you who believe you have reinvented the wheel and are knocking the old hands in this game, we will watch you ride your emotional rollercoaster, and in the end we will quietly, cautiously, mop up the floor with what is left of you. Trade humble, or go broke. It is a law. Write it down.

later...

 [edit- Thanks all for the props above, always appreciated...)

Great post jballs, but I fear it will fall mostly on deaf ears.  You see most of the bitcoin true believers are 20 somethings who have never traded professionally or for an extended period of time for that matter.  They have never traded during a speculative bubble like the late 90's tech bubble or the 2008 oil bubble.  They think they have everything figured out and that older people have no idea what they are talking and nothing to add to the conversation.

They think bitcoin will take over the world in short order and render the dollar, euro, yen, gold, Fed, ECB, BOJ, investment banks, hedge funds, stock and bond markets completely obsolete and useless.  According to them bitcoin does not follow any of the old rules of trading.  Charts, technical analysis, risk management, profit taking, trading experience are completely worthless.  Bitcoin is a completely new animal.  In short, "this time its different."

Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest speculators of all time, once said, "There is nothing new in speculating.  There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills.  Whatever happens in financial markets today has happened before and will happen again."

You couldn't be further from the truth.

And as to Livermore, I read his book. He was a smart kid that failed to overcome a gambling addiction and ultimately committed suicide.

edit: I see Bitcoin as a tool to fight financial corruption. I couldn't care less about speculators. I read about it, thought to myself, "Hey cool, a technology that could wrest power from those who issue currency so my kids don't have to grow up fighting politicians' wars funded by central banks. That's how it's different.

If you older traders are too obtuse to see how digital currencies are a game-changer, I'm not sure what to tell you.

[jballs]

Great post jballs, but I fear it will fall mostly on deaf ears.  You see most of the bitcoin true believers are 20 somethings who have never traded professionally or for an extended period of time for that matter.  They have never traded during a speculative bubble like the late 90's tech bubble or the 2008 oil bubble.  They think they have everything figured out and that older people have no idea what they are talking and nothing to add to the conversation.

They think bitcoin will take over the world in short order and render the dollar, euro, yen, gold, Fed, ECB, BOJ, investment banks, hedge funds, stock and bond markets completely obsolete and useless.  According to them bitcoin does not follow any of the old rules of trading.  Charts, technical analysis, risk management, profit taking, trading experience are completely worthless.  Bitcoin is a completely new animal.  In short, "this time its different."

Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest speculators of all time, once said, "There is nothing new in speculating.  There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills.  Whatever happens in financial markets today has happened before and will happen again."

True enough. I ponder if I was that arrogant when I was 20. Probably, but I did have mentors who I respected and learned from, only reason I haven't followed Livermore into the coat room. Also I have a 30ish trading partner who is on the cusp still so I'm familiar with the hubris. I still have to yank his leash 3-4 times a month to keep him out of the fire.

A fun statistical ratio would be the number of supremely confident 20-somethings vs. the number of extremely wealthy 40-somethings, 20 years later.

 

[traderCJ]

Your enterprise will probably be cannibalized by the Bilderberg whether you like it or not. I wish it were not so, but look at where the internet went...straight into the nutsack of the New Stasi. No reason to believe this will be any different, pleasantly surprise me if I'm wrong though.

I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords.

Seriously though - do you think the powers that be will crush Bitcoin under their heel or embrace it?  It is interesting that although the internet is resistant to censorship and thus people can openly expose various conspiracies, not much can be done with the information as far as prosecution goes.  So there really is little for the power structure to fear.  In fact, they now have an exceptional tool for monitoring and attacking adversaries.  Will they recognize that Bitcoin can also play into their continued global dominance?  Unknown.

[Lone Wolf]

Great post jballs, but I fear it will fall mostly on deaf ears.  You see most of the bitcoin true believers are 20 somethings who have never traded professionally or for an extended period of time for that matter.  They have never traded during a speculative bubble like the late 90's tech bubble or the 2008 oil bubble.  They think they have everything figured out and that older people have no idea what they are talking and nothing to add to the conversation.

They think bitcoin will take over the world in short order and render the dollar, euro, yen, gold, Fed, ECB, BOJ, investment banks, hedge funds, stock and bond markets completely obsolete and useless.  According to them bitcoin does not follow any of the old rules of trading.  Charts, technical analysis, risk management, profit taking, trading experience are completely worthless.  Bitcoin is a completely new animal.  In short, "this time its different."

Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest speculators of all time, once said, "There is nothing new in speculating.  There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills.  Whatever happens in financial markets today has happened before and will happen again."

You couldn't be further from the truth.

And as to Livermore, I read his book. He was a smart kid that failed to overcome a gambling addiction and ultimately committed suicide.

I couldn't be further from the truth about what?

Please enlighten me about what kind of gambling addiction?
  

[Lone Wolf]

Your enterprise will probably be cannibalized by the Bilderberg whether you like it or not. I wish it were not so, but look at where the internet went...straight into the nutsack of the New Stasi. No reason to believe this will be any different, pleasantly surprise me if I'm wrong though.

I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords.

Seriously though - do you think the powers that be will crush Bitcoin under their heel or embrace it?  It is interesting that although the internet is resistant to censorship and thus people can openly expose various conspiracies, not much can be done with the information as far as prosecution goes.  So there really is little for the power structure to fear.  In fact, they now have an exceptional tool for monitoring and attacking adversaries.  Will they recognize that Bitcoin can also play into their continued global dominance?  Unknown.

If the political and financial elite can find a way to profit from and use bitcoin to increase their political control, then yes they will co-opt it. 

[bassclef]

Great post jballs, but I fear it will fall mostly on deaf ears.  You see most of the bitcoin true believers are 20 somethings who have never traded professionally or for an extended period of time for that matter.  They have never traded during a speculative bubble like the late 90's tech bubble or the 2008 oil bubble.  They think they have everything figured out and that older people have no idea what they are talking and nothing to add to the conversation.

They think bitcoin will take over the world in short order and render the dollar, euro, yen, gold, Fed, ECB, BOJ, investment banks, hedge funds, stock and bond markets completely obsolete and useless.  According to them bitcoin does not follow any of the old rules of trading.  Charts, technical analysis, risk management, profit taking, trading experience are completely worthless.  Bitcoin is a completely new animal.  In short, "this time its different."

Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest speculators of all time, once said, "There is nothing new in speculating.  There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills.  Whatever happens in financial markets today has happened before and will happen again."

You couldn't be further from the truth.

And as to Livermore, I read his book. He was a smart kid that failed to overcome a gambling addiction and ultimately committed suicide.

I couldn't be further from the truth about what?

Please enlighten me about what kind of gambling addiction?
 

Livermore left behind a wife and two kids after blowing his brains out. Not exactly someone I'm prepared to take life lessons from.

It seems you and jballs don't really understand what Bitcoin and other digital currencies are, and are rushing to judgement. If you can explain how Bitcoin works under the hood without looking it up, or how digital currencies solve a 25 year-old computer science problem previously thought to be unsolvable, then you have my attention.

[jballs]

Your enterprise will probably be cannibalized by the Bilderberg whether you like it or not. I wish it were not so, but look at where the internet went...straight into the nutsack of the New Stasi. No reason to believe this will be any different, pleasantly surprise me if I'm wrong though.

I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords.

Seriously though - do you think the powers that be will crush Bitcoin under their heel or embrace it?  It is interesting that although the internet is resistant to censorship and thus people can openly expose various conspiracies, not much can be done with the information as far as prosecution goes.  So there really is little for the power structure to fear.  In fact, they now have an exceptional tool for monitoring and attacking adversaries.  Will they recognize that Bitcoin can also play into their continued global dominance?  Unknown.

I made a video on the subject a couple weeks ago

http://youtu.be/BzcEiszx09g

You can skip the first bit as you already know bitcoin, but the rest deals with how fucked the financial system is.

In short, I can make a case that they will have way bigger problems before they ever get a noose around bitcoin. Power only wants power. So those in power will naturally exploit it or destroy it, or lose their power to it. And my best guess in our complex world is all three of those outcomes will occur.

The power structure is fluid, we have trouble seeing that because it is designed to not look fluid. I have been to a half dozen Federal Reserve buildings and they all use the same architecture. Concrete blocks like they were pulled off the great pyramid. FRBNY is almost comical the blocks are so oversized. It's a message of permanence and officiousness, but the hustlers that come and go have their own agendas, and strengths and weaknesses. The institutions are hollow edifices, stages for the puppetmasters.

My take is that the powers that be need guys like Ed Snowden. Thousands, tens of thousands of them, to run their system. The old guard got too old, that is really why the 2008 collapse happened. the grey hairs that built the post-Keynesian house of cards up and died or left the game. Their kids didn't really understand it in a big picture sense, so they just pushed the gas to the floor until it exploded.

Well those people aren't going to fix the mess, they don't know how. Evidenced by the current solution and how well it's working (QE, nonsense, cronyism).

What I hope is bitcoiners are the ones with the brains and the balls to take the reigns and fix the mess they (we) are all about to inherit in full force, and provide some alternatives to what is a crumbling archaic financial system on its very last legs.

That's probably a lousy answer to your question but it's the best I've got for now. I think BTC is here to stay for sure, black market or mainstream or global or zonal, my crystal ball is murky there but I am comfortable owning it, for sure.

[jballs]

Livermore left behind a wife and two kids after blowing his brains out. Not exactly someone I'm prepared to take life lessons from.

It seems you and jballs don't really understand what Bitcoin and other digital currencies are, and are rushing to judgement. If you can explain how Bitcoin works under the hood without looking it up, or how digital currencies solve a 25 year-old computer science problem previously thought to be unsolvable, then you have my attention.

I'm really sure at this point we are having two entirely different conversations.

Take your ritalin and read some of the thread and if you have anything pertinent to add I'll check back later.

PS- as for Livermore, not all men fear death.

[Lone Wolf]

Livermore left behind a wife and two kids after blowing his brains out. Not exactly someone I'm prepared to take life lessons from.

It seems you and jballs don't really understand what Bitcoin and other digital currencies are, and are rushing to judgement. If you can explain how Bitcoin works under the hood without looking it up, or how digital currencies solve a 25 year-old computer science problem previously thought to be unsolvable, then you have my attention.

No one ever talked about taking "life lessons" from Livermore.  He is valued for his lessons on trading/speculating.  The guy was worth $3 million after the crash of 1907 and $100 million after the crash of 1929.  $100 million in 1929 is prob billions in today's dollars.  And he started out when he was a teenager with around $5.  If you dismiss someone with a track record like that then you are not very bright.

Neither jballs nor I is talking about esoteric things like 25 yr old cs problems.  We are talking about bitcoin as a speculative instrument.  If you don't think it is a speculative instrument then I don't know what to tell you.

[Salivan]

bitcoin will not overthrow regime, it will add new flavors to it or die trying.

hopefully making all of us rich on the way, this is our not traders mantra

Is this possible somewhere else? you tell me..

[piramida]

Also, I have my doubts as to whether he really is a big fish.  It's very easy to fake such things.

Actually yes, I didn't doubt until he posted that he smokes a cigar which is #1 result of the query "most expensive cigar", so not some obscure-but-expensive stuff, but the one he found by a quick googling. That triggered some doubts for me.

As for OP, of course they are here, trading is just like any other asset but with bad exchanges and huge volatility I guess when it becomes easier to trade, most of the volatility would be gone and bitcoin would be moving in smooth multi-week trends as any other asset.

[Grafzep]

Welcome, jballs. I hope you stick around.

[Erdogan]

You OP might have too much respect for the professionals. Have you talked to any of them? I have. They talk about shares just like any connoisseur talks about wine. Pure magic.

A venture capitalist sitting on the sidelines for bitcoin now, is pathetic. Venture means risky business you know, but bitcoin is too risky. Or they don't see the potential reward. They really only follow the stream. Edit: Waiting for Krugman to be bitcoin bull perhaps.

Face it, you are the one in knowledge, you are the venture capitalist. Fuck the magicians

[Honeypot]

For the newbies, a point of clarification.

The architecture of bitcoin is a radical departure from most of the financial world, but not all of it. In absolute terminology, they are a structured derivative. Most likely if they survive (I am betting they will), they will ultimately be absorbed into the financial industry as that product type.

While "swapping paper back and forth" is a useful metaphor, the fact is virtually all derivatives and currencies are already digital. I have not ever in my two decades actively trading transacted any paper for any other paper, aside from a brief foray into the trading floor where there were actually paper tickets, but even those represented something else, not the paper.

In the last year I have bought and sold soybeans, wheat, corn, natural gas, gold, platinum, palladium, crude oil, euros, yen, SA Rand, and option on several of those as well.

I have only been to a soybean field once ever. Didn't like it. Have enjoyed the occasional edamame with my sushi. I couldn't pick out a spring wheat from a winter wheat from a tumbleweed in a line-up, but I am a professional consultant advising wheat farmers and end users for risk management and price protection. I have no natural gas pipeline or storage facility, I have no idea where my gas goes when I sell it or where it was when I bought it. I have never held a yen in my hand, have had a few euros on occasion for spending. It is all digital.

The difference between trading natural gas or soybeans or yen is a matter of making a secure digital transaction over an exchange. Having knowledge of the markets (and yes, if you are a GOOD technical analyst it is immensely helpful, however if you are a bad technician god help you) is important. Having a deep understanding of risk management and refined trading skills is vastly more important.

You are all speculating on bitcoin. I don't care what your premise is, the cardinal rule of trading is the future is unpredictable. Thus you must understand the mental environment of a successful speculator to trade bitcoin, or anything else. Anything that fluctuates in value and has an available counterparty is a vehicle for speculation. In this way bitcoin is no different than any other commodity we trade, save for the much higher potential of high sigma price fluctuation. Which is a good thing. If you're a speculator.

Make no mistake, those of you who believe you have reinvented the wheel and are knocking the old hands in this game, we will watch you ride your emotional rollercoaster, and in the end we will quietly, cautiously, mop up the floor with what is left of you. Trade humble, or go broke. It is a law. Write it down.

later...

 [edit- Thanks all for the props above, always appreciated...)

This. 'emotional rollercoaster' is being very generous, and that's an understatement of the year.

More like no-life experience, no-real-power experience small fries getting too uppity for its own good.


bitcoin is not some silver bullet. those who think so are at best delusional and mistaken; more likely they just don' know what power, influence, and wealth actually mean since they have never even recognized its shadow much less tasted it in the first place.


Mop the floor with these fools. If they bitch more and makes prices swing, that's more profit for the silent and competent traders who couldn't give a two penny fuck about some anti-government bitchfest.

[Cryddit]

I would not classify Bitcoin as a derivative.  A derivative derives its value from something else -- wheat, soy, metal, oil, whatever.  Bitcoin does not.  Its value depends not on the value of some other commodity, but on the value of Bitcoin itself.  Which makes it something of a misfit among derivatives.  I agree with you that the derivative markets are probably best equipped to deal in it right now though, and the pattern of trades it shows so far is very similar to the patterns shown by derivative trading.

Insofar as I have bought stocks, I am no "big fish;" I own a portfolio of stocks about equal to the value of my home. I have traded on the basis of investment rather than speculation, as I do not typically hold any stocks I buy for less than five years, and I do insist on buying stocks that actually pay dividends.  So the 'currency speculation market' that dominates Bitcoin trading is a completely new experience for me.  I invested in Bitcoin because I believe it is the best solution so far proposed to International Internet commerce and has an advantage on its merits over traditional finance networks.  It moves money around the world quickly, efficiently, and cheaply. 

But it is not yet a mainstream way of doing that.  Furthermore, its scaling issues will not allow it to become a mainstream way of doing that.  A limit of seven transactions per second is laughable when compared to the number of tx per second a mainstream financial network has to process.  So that is the major technology risk as I see it;  I bought Bitcoin believing that the devs would work hard, and well before now, to fix the scalability problem.  So far, they have not.  The value of Bitcoin has not been driven by its use as a financial network, because it is still useless as a financial network.   Its value has been driven by currency speculators, and is now well above the mark at which I'd have bought (late in 2012) if I had known that at the beginning of 2014 the network would still not be able to handle at least a thousand tx per second. 

So, right now, the lack of development on the scalability front is making me worry a lot.  If that does not get fixed, and fairly soon, I believe the value of Bitcoin cannot be sustained at the current level.  It is attracting some mainstream speculator attention now, but when stock and bond traders are aware of it they will attempt to use it as a financial network and that is a whole different game.  If at that time they still cannot, they will discover that they cannot and the value sustained by speculation will be shown to be unjustified.  At that point, even if Bitcoin develops a scalability solution it won't help.  It will be dismissed in the minds of people who would like to use it as a financial network until long after its first mover advantage is lost. 

[Lone Wolf]

Also, I have my doubts as to whether he really is a big fish.  It's very easy to fake such things.

Actually yes, I didn't doubt until he posted that he smokes a cigar which is #1 result of the query "most expensive cigar", so not some obscure-but-expensive stuff, but the one he found by a quick googling. That triggered some doubts for me.

As for OP, of course they are here, trading is just like any other asset but with bad exchanges and huge volatility I guess when it becomes easier to trade, most of the volatility would be gone and bitcoin would be moving in smooth multi-week trends as any other asset.

Twitter stock, 3D printing stocks are extremely easy to trade and there is plenty of volatility and massive returns there.  Same for index options and stock options.  And no super slow executions of buy or sell orders or delays getting your money into or out of exchanges like with btc.

[Lone Wolf]

You OP might have too much respect for the professionals. Have you talked to any of them? I have. They talk about shares just like any connoisseur talks about wine. Pure magic.

A venture capitalist sitting on the sidelines for bitcoin now, is pathetic. Venture means risky business you know, but bitcoin is too risky. Or they don't see the potential reward. They really only follow the stream. Edit: Waiting for Krugman to be bitcoin bull perhaps.

Face it, you are the one in knowledge, you are the venture capitalist. Fuck the magicians

Yet another unbelievably arrogant post from a btc true believer.  Dismissing anyone who does not believe as fervently as they do.  Which investment "professionals" have you spoken to?  A VC?  A hedge fund manager?  How do you have personal access to such people with their busy schedules pray tell?  Are you that important?  If so, then why are you bothering to post on a lowly btc internet forum?