does it feel like 2014 again?

[racebum]

i wasn't around for this but i know some of you were. i was studying the charts earlier and noticed since bitcoin was invented it has had 2 parabolic bull markets. 2013 and 2017

in 2013 the bitcoin price run was basically 20 to 1000 or a 5000% increase. in 2017 it was much smaller at 2000% but still very much a run. 2014 also had mt gox go nuclear.  also note at the lowest point in the last bear market bitcoin never even got close to where 2013 started before the run up. the market low was found in spring of 2015 around $220 or 10x higher than the start of 2013 however it was an 80% peak to trough. after this it was an uptrend for years with corrections along the way. we had a MUCH smaller run in 2017 at only 2000% vs 5000% in 2013 and no mt gox blow up. it seems very unlikely to have a repeat as the news is actually really positive and you run into problems with the network in general below 5-6k minimum now. we also have already had a 70% correction with no where near as bad of news and no where near as big of initial run up. an 80% correction would be BTC 4k.  miners will start shutting down due to low profitability around 6k and or difficulty will have to fall....in fact that's already starting. you actually get more coin selling hashing power now than you did at this time last month. many of the dec/jan gpu miners are likely already leaving.

the thing i noticed about all modern parabolic moves is they rarely if ever recover quickly. bitcoins massive run in 2013, the nasdaq in 1999. the thing that gets me though. both of those prior examples had real fundamental reasons that brought them down. 2017 really did not. people just sold....well. because lambo and beach house.

if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year. weak hands will be shook out. difficulty may even fall on many alt coins. maybe even bitcoin. we may have seen the low at 6k and we may even test 5. going to 4 would be an absolute floor unless we are destined to go to zero. i'm sure a lot of miners would shut down. network traffic would fall. 80-90% of altcoins would die.
 

my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support. we also likely have resistance at 12k that will push back if we move through 10k.

long term. this is healthy. weak hands are shook out and those of us who stick around will be able to mine easier and accumulate at good prices.

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[bobo012]

It kinda feels like it, but somehow it is quicker, i dont expect a prolonged decline as back in 2014. Interest is higher now, there are more miners and profit margin for them is high, so i do not expect to see 2000 or 3000 btc as it woud be required to be equal as 2014. decline.

[pooya87]

i wasn't around for this but i know some of you were. i was studying the charts earlier and noticed since bitcoin was invented it has had 2 parabolic bull markets. 2013 and 2017

don't give up too soon, bitcoin had at least 3 more bubbles like these two in the past. the 2013 one is the most obvious one that you know without even looking at the charts.

miners will start shutting down due to low profitability around 6k and or difficulty will have to fall....in fact that's already starting. you actually get more coin selling hashing power now than you did at this time last month. many of the dec/jan gpu miners are likely already leaving.

when you start a topic like this first thing you need to do is to do some research first. right now i feel like you are repeating the same FUDs like a parrot. first with the lack of knowledge about previous bubbles but you claim you have "Studied the charts" now this.
you claim miners are already leaving (by the way there is no GPU miner, it is ASIC) if you take a look at the hashrate you can clearly see that it has been rising meaning more miners are coming in and right now it is at its highest hashrate of all time or ATH
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html

if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year.

although i had a different opinion about this, but i am starting to change my mind.

difficulty may even fall on many alt coins.

altcoins will continued to get dumped because they were pumped extremely thanks to all the last year bitcoin rallies.
but there will be other coins and more importantly newer coins which will come and get bigger pumps. so "difficulty" won't be on all of them.

80-90% of altcoins would die.

altcoins rarely die. they will endure. of course you can define "death" as going down to less than 1 satoshi but they will still exist and be traded and be pumped an dumped even if they are worth 0.01 satoshi (1 e-10 bitcoin)

my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support.

i wouldn't jump to make any bottom speculations because the drop is not normal and when it is not normal you can't predict what will happen.

[Tylev]

I think that you can only partially agree with your arguments. You conducted a good study of the bitcoin course in previous years. However, one must take into account that our world has never developed in a circle, its development is spiraling. We are returning to the original position, but at a new, qualitative level. Therefore, it is not necessary that after taking off in price in the previous year, this year for bitcoin will be practically stagnant. Butcoin is already on a different level. Let's hope that bitcoin stagnation this year will not happen.

[Nerman]

This is the reason why professional traders are always checking the chart history because in trading more often history repeats itself.
Also this is the reason why most people who invested in Bitcoin are always still positive/believes that Bitcoin will recover and will rise again.

[RNGfight]

I don't think so.
Now that the bull market has arrived, there is no need to do anything, all that needs to be done is to hold.

[HabBear]

if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year. weak hands will be shook out. difficulty may even fall on many alt coins. maybe even bitcoin. we may have seen the low at 6k and we may even test 5. going to 4 would be an absolute floor unless we are destined to go to zero. i'm sure a lot of miners would shut down. network traffic would fall. 80-90% of altcoins would die.

I agree, in fact I think it's a win for Bitcoin if this year maintains the consolidation and holds it's price at $6,000 - $8,000. This can prove to the world financial press that 2017 wasn't a farce or a fad, that Bitcoin is here to stay. It also proves to the next wave of investors that Bitcoin is worthy of their attention.

[layoutph]

I am 80% agree with you OP. I feel the same pressure wayback 4years ago. Consensus and other supposed to be a good crypto stories should make the price go up. But it doesnt help. We cannot help Bitcoin to go up as it faithfully follows its previous charts. What we can do now is HOLD or hedge to USDT. Comparing bit by bit the BTC price of 2014 to 2018 theres a huge similarity. If you believe, be careful of making buy position with margins.

i wasn't around for this but i know some of you were. i was studying the charts earlier and noticed since bitcoin was invented it has had 2 parabolic bull markets. 2013 and 2017

in 2013 the bitcoin price run was basically 20 to 1000 or a 5000% increase. in 2017 it was much smaller at 2000% but still very much a run. 2014 also had mt gox go nuclear.  also note at the lowest point in the last bear market bitcoin never even got close to where 2013 started before the run up. the market low was found in spring of 2015 around $220 or 10x higher than the start of 2013 however it was an 80% peak to trough. after this it was an uptrend for years with corrections along the way. we had a MUCH smaller run in 2017 at only 2000% vs 5000% in 2013 and no mt gox blow up. it seems very unlikely to have a repeat as the news is actually really positive and you run into problems with the network in general below 5-6k minimum now. we also have already had a 70% correction with no where near as bad of news and no where near as big of initial run up. an 80% correction would be BTC 4k.  miners will start shutting down due to low profitability around 6k and or difficulty will have to fall....in fact that's already starting. you actually get more coin selling hashing power now than you did at this time last month. many of the dec/jan gpu miners are likely already leaving.

the thing i noticed about all modern parabolic moves is they rarely if ever recover quickly. bitcoins massive run in 2013, the nasdaq in 1999. the thing that gets me though. both of those prior examples had real fundamental reasons that brought them down. 2017 really did not. people just sold....well. because lambo and beach house.

if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year. weak hands will be shook out. difficulty may even fall on many alt coins. maybe even bitcoin. we may have seen the low at 6k and we may even test 5. going to 4 would be an absolute floor unless we are destined to go to zero. i'm sure a lot of miners would shut down. network traffic would fall. 80-90% of altcoins would die.
 

my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support. we also likely have resistance at 12k that will push back if we move through 10k.

long term. this is healthy. weak hands are shook out and those of us who stick around will be able to mine easier and accumulate at good prices.

[Kakmakr]

Yes, it kinda feels like 2014 again. We get a 2 year slump after a ATH and I think we might be in that correction or slump phase now. The price history is not a guaranteed indicator of what will happen in the future, but it explains the price behaviour we have now.

People who came in during 2017 will not understand this, so they will probably exit after a year of poor price performance <Weak hands>, but the old timers will ride this like a Pro Suffer and profit BIG in the end. ^smile^

[eann014]

It is almost the same as 2014 but the increasing and the decreasing stake are faster now than before. Bitcoin price drops fast and sometimes increase fast and we can't control it and no one will control it because that's bitcoin how it works. It is base on the buyer and the seller of it, I guess, the more we buy the more bitcoin will increase its price and the more we sell bitcoin then the more bitcoin it will drop.

[Pursuer]

to be honest, no!
things are not at all similar to the last bitcoin bubble. this time it wasn't a fake manipulation by one exchange like it was back in 2013, this was a large amount of real money coming in. you can't ignore all the adoption and we have already had the huge  correction that was needed after the bubble.

What we can do now is HOLD or hedge to USDT.

never ever in a million years do this!
USDT is one of the riskiest coins because it is centralized to a shady company that can be hacked or scam and run away like all the other exchanges did in the past (the same company runs Bitfinex).

[wantjokull]

So whats the moral of this story at all?

Are we going to sink to 4K USD or if we try to resist then we will be going back to ATH? What exactly everything has got to do with this scenario. I mean isn't that this year is already different than the others as we have the biggest dump in prices form ATH 19K USD which was never seen in the past at all.

I believe (referring to your statements) if network difficulty is falling then 101% more miners will jump in and then again they will help BTC to mine at increased hashing power. This cycle will keep repeating and there is no such thing "miners leaving the crypto". I guess it only points to imaginative specs nothing else.

[racebum]

i wasn't around for this but i know some of you were. i was studying the charts earlier and noticed since bitcoin was invented it has had 2 parabolic bull markets. 2013 and 2017

don't give up too soon, bitcoin had at least 3 more bubbles like these two in the past. the 2013 one is the most obvious one that you know without even looking at the charts.

miners will start shutting down due to low profitability around 6k and or difficulty will have to fall....in fact that's already starting. you actually get more coin selling hashing power now than you did at this time last month. many of the dec/jan gpu miners are likely already leaving.

when you start a topic like this first thing you need to do is to do some research first. right now i feel like you are repeating the same FUDs like a parrot. first with the lack of knowledge about previous bubbles but you claim you have "Studied the charts" now this.
you claim miners are already leaving (by the way there is no GPU miner, it is ASIC) if you take a look at the hashrate you can clearly see that it has been rising meaning more miners are coming in and right now it is at its highest hashrate of all time or ATH
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html

if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year.

although i had a different opinion about this, but i am starting to change my mind.

difficulty may even fall on many alt coins.

altcoins will continued to get dumped because they were pumped extremely thanks to all the last year bitcoin rallies.
but there will be other coins and more importantly newer coins which will come and get bigger pumps. so "difficulty" won't be on all of them.

80-90% of altcoins would die.

altcoins rarely die. they will endure. of course you can define "death" as going down to less than 1 satoshi but they will still exist and be traded and be pumped an dumped even if they are worth 0.01 satoshi (1 e-10 bitcoin)

my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support.

i wouldn't jump to make any bottom speculations because the drop is not normal and when it is not normal you can't predict what will happen.

it's not fud on the mining. i'm looking at current difficulty and current price/electricity/maintence. i'm sure there are now a lot of miners as #1 they were extremely profitable for the past year and #2 they have them. the number of new s9's being sold i would imagine is much lower. at 11 cents kwh an s9 is making around $3 a day. who is spending $1200 on a miner for $3 a day?

we also have the unresolved bitfinex / spoofing / tether situation and how much effect it had in 2017

alt coins have been following bitcoin so again my comment on gpu mining looks a lot like what i just said about the s9. an alt coin that suffers a 98-99% loss from today's price is dead. without funds how will the project further develop and be competitive? they become a gamblers coin at that point. there are what? 1500 alt coins or so? by the time you get to #100 on just marketcap you start getting into some shady projects. even popular penny coins like electronium. dude. they can't even make their phone app work correctly and this today is ranked at #100. it's also not any any of the major exchanges. there are 1400 worse than this

[racebum]

So whats the moral of this story at all?

Are we going to sink to 4K USD or if we try to resist then we will be going back to ATH? What exactly everything has got to do with this scenario. I mean isn't that this year is already different than the others as we have the biggest dump in prices form ATH 19K USD which was never seen in the past at all.

I believe (referring to your statements) if network difficulty is falling then 101% more miners will jump in and then again they will help BTC to mine at increased hashing power. This cycle will keep repeating and there is no such thing "miners leaving the crypto". I guess it only points to imaginative specs nothing else.

there is no moral. it was more of a thought out question. does it feel like 2014 again?

we also are no where near the biggest dump in prices. not even close. 2014 had an 80% retrace. the only thing that is "largest" is the sheer number of dollars per coin but that is kind of meaningless.

as i mentioned above, an s9 is making about $3 a day at 11kwh which is a standard price in the US. profits are pretty terrible right now if you're mining.

[racebum]

to be honest, no!
things are not at all similar to the last bitcoin bubble. this time it wasn't a fake manipulation by one exchange like it was back in 2013, this was a large amount of real money coming in. you can't ignore all the adoption and we have already had the huge  correction that was needed after the bubble.

What we can do now is HOLD or hedge to USDT.

never ever in a million years do this!
USDT is one of the riskiest coins because it is centralized to a shady company that can be hacked or scam and run away like all the other exchanges did in the past (the same company runs Bitfinex).

yea that's the thing. 2013 had the marcus and willey situation but 2017 had bitfinex and the spoofing, wash trading, tether etc.

i completely agree on adoption. i mean you have people from all walks of life interested in crypto right now

also agree on the correction. we had a 70% peak to trough on this one which is only 10 points shy of 2013 which was a MUCH bigger rally with a MUCH crazier nuclear blow up.

so really...i was spit balling with this question. what do people actually think of this year and even the current situation with good/great news being sold fairly hard. we still haven't reclaimed the 200SMA. we also are tracing out a wedge pattern if the 6k low holds. if it does and we keep making these lower highs you eventually get to the tip of a wedge which almost always equals a breakout one way or another. if the 6k low is broke then you have a decline situation with lower highs and lower lows. if 6 goes the 2014 situation starts looking reasonably likely. chart patterns often repeat themselves. we have already had a 70% retrace. 2014 was 80% that's how close things already are.

[Pursuer]

to be honest, no!
things are not at all similar to the last bitcoin bubble. this time it wasn't a fake manipulation by one exchange like it was back in 2013, this was a large amount of real money coming in. you can't ignore all the adoption and we have already had the huge  correction that was needed after the bubble.

What we can do now is HOLD or hedge to USDT.

never ever in a million years do this!
USDT is one of the riskiest coins because it is centralized to a shady company that can be hacked or scam and run away like all the other exchanges did in the past (the same company runs Bitfinex).

yea that's the thing. 2013 had the marcus and willey situation but 2017 had bitfinex and the spoofing, wash trading, tether etc.

i completely agree on adoption. i mean you have people from all walks of life interested in crypto right now

also agree on the correction. we had a 70% peak to trough on this one which is only 10 points shy of 2013 which was a MUCH bigger rally with a MUCH crazier nuclear blow up.

so really...i was spit balling with this question. what do people actually think of this year and even the current situation with good/great news being sold fairly hard. we still haven't reclaimed the 200SMA

basically in my opinion it doesn't matter whether this looks or feels like 2014 or not. in the end the circumstances are different and the result will be different. just because some certain trend happened before it doesn't mean it can and will happen again. price may continue to go down even when you think it should stop because it is like previous time or it may stop here and reverse up and start the rise.

[dothebeats]

the thing i noticed about all modern parabolic moves is they rarely if ever recover quickly. bitcoins massive run in 2013, the nasdaq in 1999. the thing that gets me though. both of those prior examples had real fundamental reasons that brought them down. 2017 really did not. people just sold....well. because lambo and beach house.

You also need to factor in the trustee selling thousands of coins in the 3rd week of December that also placed a huge selling pressure on the market. After this was done, many traders also followed suit, which resulted into a heavy crash from Dec-Jan. Kinda like a chain reaction, and that's one of the biggest reasons I see why we never really see the light of $20k.

if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year. weak hands will be shook out. difficulty may even fall on many alt coins. maybe even bitcoin. we may have seen the low at 6k and we may even test 5. going to 4 would be an absolute floor unless we are destined to go to zero. i'm sure a lot of miners would shut down. network traffic would fall. 80-90% of altcoins would die.

The last part of this statement somewhat feels very unlikely today. Multiple times we have tried to go lower than $6000 but it seems that the market wouldn't permit such, though I'll admit there's still room of such a huge crash anytime. If the parabolic movement replicates 2014 and 2017, it could be another year or two of accumulation and quietness in the market. Many would surely let go and cause yet another crash but those who are silently accumulating will continue to do so and cause another hype for people to come back in.
 

my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support. we also likely have resistance at 12k that will push back if we move through 10k.

long term. this is healthy. weak hands are shook out and those of us who stick around will be able to mine easier and accumulate at good prices.

I don't really see bitcoin crossing the $10k mark even within the end of this year. Many are too optimistic but don't understand that it's not possible yet given the market conditions. I'm expecting another stagnant year with many pullbacks and short-lived rises.

[racebum]

basically in my opinion it doesn't matter whether this looks or feels like 2014 or not. in the end the circumstances are different and the result will be different. just because some certain trend happened before it doesn't mean it can and will happen again. price may continue to go down even when you think it should stop because it is like previous time or it may stop here and reverse up and start the rise.

mmm

yeah...i'm with you on that

[racebum]

the thing i noticed about all modern parabolic moves is they rarely if ever recover quickly. bitcoins massive run in 2013, the nasdaq in 1999. the thing that gets me though. both of those prior examples had real fundamental reasons that brought them down. 2017 really did not. people just sold....well. because lambo and beach house.

You also need to factor in the trustee selling thousands of coins in the 3rd week of December that also placed a huge selling pressure on the market. After this was done, many traders also followed suit, which resulted into a heavy crash from Dec-Jan. Kinda like a chain reaction, and that's one of the biggest reasons I see why we never really see the light of $20k.

if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year. weak hands will be shook out. difficulty may even fall on many alt coins. maybe even bitcoin. we may have seen the low at 6k and we may even test 5. going to 4 would be an absolute floor unless we are destined to go to zero. i'm sure a lot of miners would shut down. network traffic would fall. 80-90% of altcoins would die.

The last part of this statement somewhat feels very unlikely today. Multiple times we have tried to go lower than $6000 but it seems that the market wouldn't permit such, though I'll admit there's still room of such a huge crash anytime. If the parabolic movement replicates 2014 and 2017, it could be another year or two of accumulation and quietness in the market. Many would surely let go and cause yet another crash but those who are silently accumulating will continue to do so and cause another hype for people to come back in.
 

my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support. we also likely have resistance at 12k that will push back if we move through 10k.

long term. this is healthy. weak hands are shook out and those of us who stick around will be able to mine easier and accumulate at good prices.

I don't really see bitcoin crossing the $10k mark even within the end of this year. Many are too optimistic but don't understand that it's not possible yet given the market conditions. I'm expecting another stagnant year with many pullbacks and short-lived rises.

1. did that mt gox attorney seriously unload on an exchange? i mean...why? i'm relatively new but do have a background in securities and there is NO WAY i would ever unload hard if i was given thousands of bitcoins. if i do all the damn bots will follow me into the ground. oh no, especially considering he has quite a few more left. call the winklevoss twins. hell call anyone on the crypto top 10 list and make a deal OTC. even if you give them 10 points off spot it's a better deal than you will get on an exchange when all the bots start going to town on the technical pattern you single handedly create. the media says he has like 160,000 coins left. if 8k coins made this kind of impact it will take him years to unload at that rate. hell even a firesale at 30 points off spot solves his problem, pays all the creditors and a lot is left over. if that guy walked into consensus and said BTC for sale. 30% off gdax if you buy 50 million usd or more i bet quite a few hands would go up. seriously, what is he thinking ?

2. if 2014 does play out the majority of the fall is already over, next is the drift and if the 80% 2014 correction were to ring true again 4k would be the target with  4500-5000 being more likely as everyone would buy as we approach that number. a lot of BTC traders are very technically superstitious. like i have never met a group who puts more weight in elliot waves and fibs than crypto traders.

3. i'm mixed on the 10k comment you made. here's why. the 200sma. the longer we consolidate the easier it is to get on the right side of that. this market also has a thing for 3s. anyone else notice this in the patterns? we have had 2 failed 10k attempts in current history. if 7700 holds right now and we get a breakout a push through 10k has a strong possibility. last time the 200SMA was right at 10k and we bounced off both. if the next rally is a few weeks to a month out and we get on the right side of it one of two major hurdles is already out of the way. clearing 10 however is only a major accomplishment if it holds as support. if we run to 11,700 and get turned around which is highly likely on attempt one everyone will be watching to see if 10k holds or if we run back down under it to a support level in the 8s or 9s

[eddie13]

i wasn't around for this but i know some of you were. i was studying the charts earlier and noticed since bitcoin was invented it has had 2 parabolic bull markets. 2013 and 2017

don't give up too soon, bitcoin had at least 3 more bubbles like these two in the past. the 2013 one is the most obvious one that you know without even looking at the charts.

That's what's up..

just because some certain trend happened before it doesn't mean it can and will happen again.

"Past performance is not an indicator of future results"

Yeah, that's what I tell people I talk to about crypto so it's not my fault if they lose all of their money..

Not in all cases right, like AUR.. Not gonna happen again..

But BTC.. The freaking chart is like a heartbeat under ever increasing magnification.. I definitely believe it will happen again..

How long? Don't know..
His heartbeat is at somewhat irregular intervals..