does it feel like 2014 again?

[frowsiter]

There was an article which I read yesterday which stated some technical calculation based on the graphs. Im not techie one to understand that but they clearly mentioned if bitcoin is going to drop below 8K USD (which is about to) then it could happen that we will run into the bearish trend and might hit the low rates of 6-7K USD.

However, they analysed the further data with 4 hours scale and stated that if we do cross exactly 8,600 USD rates then we will turn the trend into bull run.

Now either your post which is based on hypothesis of 2014 data OR this article based on fresh data of 2018 is going to be true. The question is which one is true and on what we should rely on.

[arifin eky]

if seen from the graph it is the current conditions the same as in the year 2104, but no one will know what the price at the end of year.jika seen from the volume and level of population then the end of this year will be stronger than 2014.

[racebum]

There was an article which I read yesterday which stated some technical calculation based on the graphs. Im not techie one to understand that but they clearly mentioned if bitcoin is going to drop below 8K USD (which is about to) then it could happen that we will run into the bearish trend and might hit the low rates of 6-7K USD.

However, they analysed the further data with 4 hours scale and stated that if we do cross exactly 8,600 USD rates then we will turn the trend into bull run.

Now either your post which is based on hypothesis of 2014 data OR this article based on fresh data of 2018 is going to be true. The question is which one is true and on what we should rely on.

from a tech analyst point of view that's almost right on. the lower channel is about 7700usd though not 8k exactly. a drop on volume through 7700 would be seen as bearish with a first major target around 7k. people would then be watching to see if support holds or we drift or we break. as long as the price doesn't get close to 6k it's not  a major concern. if it does, especially on volume this being the 3rd visit of 6k makes penetration likely. under that who knows? 4k would be the 2014 correction numbers which honestly seems a bit ridiculous. this market isn't nearly as bad and 2017 didn't have nearly the run up 2013 did

on the bull side we ideally want to see something like a double bottom trace out and move up to 8200-8400 and from that point have a hard move that goes through 8900 which is the 100 day moving average, a move through 8600 which is the near term resistance almost guarantees 8900-9000. the 200 currently is at 10,200 but it falls everyday we are under it. if this sideways situation traces out for another 60 days it will be much easier to get on the right side of it for a run at 10

lastly. tinfoil hat time....which might not be that heavy of tinfoil. next gen miners are being developed. we all know bitmain is a major and i mean MAJOR player. it's in their interest to keep the price reasonable which keeps people away and the difficulty from rising too quickly. do i need to review the difficulty increase in the 2nd half of 2017? once they have mined a lot and sold a lot of the new miners price can be inflated which not only raises the cost of the miners but starts drawing people in. more and more people come in buying more and more coins and miners. bitmain and the other major players can sell into this strength AND sell their products for higher prices. this cycle can continue as long as they have the funds to manipulate price. it gets even more likely if you envision a syndicate or cartel of major players. remember....unregulated market here

[pentix]

Feels very much like it. Thanks to TS for sharing his views. Seems like it has some proven ground and not only speculation. Would give you a merit if only I had one)

[bolbau]

yes it can be said today's crypto market situation is similar to 2014, but what needs to be seen is, the lowest crypto price this year especially bitcoin is still far above the average of 2014. It can be said that this is a form of polarization and tendency every year, that crypto early in the beginning year will always decline, but at the end of the year the price touched new records.

[funchiestz]

I was thinking the same thing. I have noticed that Bitcoin is moving completely in a cycle. and at the end of this cycle is drawing a similar graphics to the previous one.

[monkeydominicorobin]

i wasn't around for this but i know some of you were. i was studying the charts earlier and noticed since bitcoin was invented it has had 2 parabolic bull markets. 2013 and 2017

in 2013 the bitcoin price run was basically 20 to 1000 or a 5000% increase. in 2017 it was much smaller at 2000% but still very much a run. 2014 also had mt gox go nuclear.  also note at the lowest point in the last bear market bitcoin never even got close to where 2013 started before the run up. the market low was found in spring of 2015 around $220 or 10x higher than the start of 2013 however it was an 80% peak to trough. after this it was an uptrend for years with corrections along the way. we had a MUCH smaller run in 2017 at only 2000% vs 5000% in 2013 and no mt gox blow up. it seems very unlikely to have a repeat as the news is actually really positive and you run into problems with the network in general below 5-6k minimum now. we also have already had a 70% correction with no where near as bad of news and no where near as big of initial run up. an 80% correction would be BTC 4k.  miners will start shutting down due to low profitability around 6k and or difficulty will have to fall....in fact that's already starting. you actually get more coin selling hashing power now than you did at this time last month. many of the dec/jan gpu miners are likely already leaving.

the thing i noticed about all modern parabolic moves is they rarely if ever recover quickly. bitcoins massive run in 2013, the nasdaq in 1999. the thing that gets me though. both of those prior examples had real fundamental reasons that brought them down. 2017 really did not. people just sold....well. because lambo and beach house.

if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year. weak hands will be shook out. difficulty may even fall on many alt coins. maybe even bitcoin. we may have seen the low at 6k and we may even test 5. going to 4 would be an absolute floor unless we are destined to go to zero. i'm sure a lot of miners would shut down. network traffic would fall. 80-90% of altcoins would die.
 

my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support. we also likely have resistance at 12k that will push back if we move through 10k.

long term. this is healthy. weak hands are shook out and those of us who stick around will be able to mine easier and accumulate at good prices.

2014 was a very unique year for Bitcoin and the community learned a lot from it. Saying that it feels like 2014 again is fake news. The power of Bitcoin now is better than ever. If it goes below 1000 then maybe it really feels like 2014.But we all know thaf it is not. The charts are always wrong.

[Juggy777]

Theoretically you may be correct in your analysis however practically I don't find it sound. Bitcoins has defied logic time and time again there is nothing as specified as you're liking to believe. Reason is bitcoins is more of a demand and supply and takes to lot of external cues to decide for self so don't really agree that this year might just be a consolidation year, bitcoins has always knows to race ahead in the latter half of the year so I think it'll race in the coming months, I'm really positive it shall race and reward everyone.

[talkbitcoin]

it is somewhat similar yet very different from 2014 in my opinion.
we have the big rise followed by a lot of hype and followed by a huge rise. and then we have the fall which was also huge (nearly 70% drop)  and then we have the consolidation phase. but the 2013-4 one took a much shorter time to have that rise then it took a much longer time to have that fall! so things aren't exactly the same.

[BitHodler]

I can understand that people feel like that, but if a similar scenario unfolds, then use it as the best possible opportunity you'll ever get to buy as many coins as possible.

The thing is that there aren't that many coins left to buy for the general public, and in case the market happens to decrease significantly (which I don't think will happen), large pockets will buy up even more coins.

Direct result is that with less coins in circulation, the market is far easier to increase. See it as a shakeout of weak hands before the next rally comes up. People shouldn't sell any of their coins.

Selling coins is like rewarding large players for their manipulation attempts. Instead, use it to buy more coins as I said, which is exactly what I'm doing.

[SimasB]

I don't think you can make such an estimation using data of such a short period of time.

[purgs08]

i wasn't around for this but i know some of you were. i was studying the charts earlier and noticed since bitcoin was invented it has had 2 parabolic bull markets. 2013 and 2017

in 2013 the bitcoin price run was basically 20 to 1000 or a 5000% increase. in 2017 it was much smaller at 2000% but still very much a run. 2014 also had mt gox go nuclear.  also note at the lowest point in the last bear market bitcoin never even got close to where 2013 started before the run up. the market low was found in spring of 2015 around $220 or 10x higher than the start of 2013 however it was an 80% peak to trough. after this it was an uptrend for years with corrections along the way. we had a MUCH smaller run in 2017 at only 2000% vs 5000% in 2013 and no mt gox blow up. it seems very unlikely to have a repeat as the news is actually really positive and you run into problems with the network in general below 5-6k minimum now. we also have already had a 70% correction with no where near as bad of news and no where near as big of initial run up. an 80% correction would be BTC 4k.  miners will start shutting down due to low profitability around 6k and or difficulty will have to fall....in fact that's already starting. you actually get more coin selling hashing power now than you did at this time last month. many of the dec/jan gpu miners are likely already leaving.

the thing i noticed about all modern parabolic moves is they rarely if ever recover quickly. bitcoins massive run in 2013, the nasdaq in 1999. the thing that gets me though. both of those prior examples had real fundamental reasons that brought them down. 2017 really did not. people just sold....well. because lambo and beach house.

if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year. weak hands will be shook out. difficulty may even fall on many alt coins. maybe even bitcoin. we may have seen the low at 6k and we may even test 5. going to 4 would be an absolute floor unless we are destined to go to zero. i'm sure a lot of miners would shut down. network traffic would fall. 80-90% of altcoins would die.
 

my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support. we also likely have resistance at 12k that will push back if we move through 10k.

long term. this is healthy. weak hands are shook out and those of us who stick around will be able to mine easier and accumulate at good prices.

it's falling down reality is real

[rayk]

It kinda feels like it, but somehow it is quicker, i dont expect a prolonged decline as back in 2014. Interest is higher now, there are more miners and profit margin for them is high, so i do not expect to see 2000 or 3000 btc as it woud be required to be equal as 2014. decline.

I agree with you, that might be same with 2014 but things move on very fast now compared to those years, this is maybe why bitcoin is so strong this year despite lots of bad news.

[Alkhalifi69]

your study of graphics is pretty good, but I do not think bitcoin prices will go back to 2014, I do not want bitcoin prices to suffer a prolonged decline. And I think the miners have gained a lot of profits so I guess the miners will not never leave the y spelling.

[racebum]

I can understand that people feel like that, but if a similar scenario unfolds, then use it as the best possible opportunity you'll ever get to buy as many coins as possible.

The thing is that there aren't that many coins left to buy for the general public, and in case the market happens to decrease significantly (which I don't think will happen), large pockets will buy up even more coins.

Direct result is that with less coins in circulation, the market is far easier to increase. See it as a shakeout of weak hands before the next rally comes up. People shouldn't sell any of their coins.

Selling coins is like rewarding large players for their manipulation attempts. Instead, use it to buy more coins as I said, which is exactly what I'm doing.

same here

even if my original question does play out.....i'm anything but long term bearish. i see it more as an opportunity.

there is substantial evidence 2013 was absolutely manipulated and 2017 also was but the extent is much harder to measure with the bitfinex/tether fiasco.

the one thing that seems certain is larger players want to accumulate as many coins as possible and the reason why is blatantly obvious. there are only so many left and the total supply is likely to only be around 16m with so many having been lost over time. if satoshi was indeed Hal which is a very likely scenario that treasure trove is likely also lost, you know, the huge stash of coins that never moved.. the strong hands want to control the majority because at that point the price can be inflated to quite large sums allowing them to trickle sell a few coins at a time into the strength and having more money than any person in recorded history ever has.

[racebum]

your study of graphics is pretty good, but I do not think bitcoin prices will go back to 2014, I do not want bitcoin prices to suffer a prolonged decline. And I think the miners have gained a lot of profits so I guess the miners will not never leave the y spelling.

oh there is no possible way we are returning to 2014 prices unless it's going to zero. when i said 2014 prices i was referring to peak to trough percentage decline. in 2013 we made a 1000 usd high and fell to a 220usd low. it's worth noting 2013 began at 20usd so even the lowest low was 11x higher than the start of that year. that equaled an 80% decline which would be BTC $4000 usd today which i personally don't think is likely because of the situation i have already mentioned. mostly. 2017 was no where near as bad as 2013 and neither was the price gain. 2013 over doubled the gain we saw in 2017 as measured by percentage. i cautiously think the 6k low we already have made is the actual low which is a 70% retrace from the 19,500 high we had in dec-2017. i find no evidence in the recorded history of crypto to argue an 80% matching decline would be likely besides the chart repeating itself. to me that's 5-10% odds of a direct 2014 repeat. it does however explain why some people speak of 4k btc as if it is going to happen. they are purely technical analysts who expect the chart to always repeat itself.....they are also wrong quite a lot

[Doell]

I also feel the same way it looks like it will happen like 2014 in the past ,will it stay that way in the next few months or it will be different ,I have not seen any news or good trends to be optimistic my feelings

[racebum]

I also feel the same way it looks like it will happen like 2014 in the past ,will it stay that way in the next few months or it will be different ,I have not seen any news or good trends to be optimistic my feelings

there is a reasonable argument for it being different. the crypto recession of 2014 lasted about 18 months before the uptrend clearly resumed. it also took like a year to find the bottom.

this time the fall was MUCH faster and we not only have a more mature market, we simply have more people invested and adoption is far more widespread. back then mt gox was the main exchange. it would be similar to coinbase and gemini both blowing up today at the same time. nothing remotely close to that happened in 2017. we should know within the next 3-4 months if 6k was the bottom and if it was we #1 won't break it and #2 will likely begin an uptrend within 6 months if history is any example.

the mood as you point out is also quite bearish which is also quite often found at bottoms. people throw in the towel with despair and run. this is more times than not a good time to cost average in

[oseikuf44]

It is good to make analysis from technical chart reading, but it is not always a case that price action is determined by only charts. As you specified MT gox, fundamental analysis might be the cause of the bull market you see on your chart.

[upinros]

Yes this is almost the same as 2014 but it is increasing and the decrease of pegs is now faster than before. Bitcoin prices go down quickly and sometimes increase quickly and you can not control it and no one will control it because that's how Bitcoin works. You can not ignore all adoptions and you already have the big corrections needed after the bubble.