Network hashrate to triple in the next 45 days? How??

[Damnsammit]

Next difficulty change:  Block #278208
Next difficulty projection:   1,393,489,370 @ 11:30PM CDT 1/1/2014 (+18%)
Actual difficulty after change: 1,418,481,395 @ 11:58PM CDT 1/1/2014 (+20%)

So I was off by ~24M, or 2%...

Based on my calculations, between 6/29/2013 and 12/21/2013 there were 16 difficulty jumps, averaging an increase of 28.75% in difficulty and a 29.12% increase in hashrate with each jump.

The current network hashrate is ~9.7 PH/s and if these increases continue at this pace then by February 14th, 2014 there will need to be a network hashrate of ~34.2 PH/s, an increase of over 250%.

So how big is an increase of 25 PH/s?  Well it depends a lot on how many ASICs are going to deliver in the next month.

ASIC Miner obviously is good on delivering their products, but they would need to release a ton of Cubes (657,895 to be exact) to make that type of dent in the hashrate.  CoinTerra looks promising but they haven't actually shipped a unit yet and don't plan to until March/April 2014.  Neither has HashFast, and they appear to be more of a concern of non-delivery judging from some of the posts that I have seen.

I can see the hashrate skyrocketing once the multi-TH/s units are actually being delivered, but as of now it looks to me like the difficulty is going to grow much more slowly than we have been seeing and maybe the 14% increases we saw in November will be similar for the next month or two.   We should know today or tomorrow, but I am guessing the next increase will only be ~15% and the following one should be even less than that.  Until the next generation of ASICs are actually plugged in and mining, I can't see these large increases sustaining.  I'd love to see a decrease in difficulty, but I am not sure that will ever happen again.  Until then I think we will all get to enjoy a good start to 2014 with small increases for at least the first two months.   There simply isn't enough power coming out in the next couple of months to increase the hashrate at the rates we have seen in the past 6 months.

So, yeah, tell me why I am wrong

[nodroids]

Good tally. There is the 10 days of "pre-testing" (aka poaching of other peoples' pre-orders) by all the manufacturers who are shipping in Feb-March, mining is becoming more and more centralized, so there are probably big data centers doing private orders and receiving private shipments.  KnC continues to ship hard and fast.

But let's see what the diff increase is today. Will you publish it here if you're watching it?

[Damnsammit]

Good tally. There is the 10 days of "pre-testing" (aka poaching of other peoples' pre-orders) by all the manufacturers who are

shipping in Feb-March, mining is becoming more and more centralized, so there are probably big data centers doing private orders and

receiving private shipments.  KnC continues to ship hard and fast.

I know the KnC Neptune will be shipping in Q2 2014 and that will add to the inevitable large spike in the coming months.  What units

are they shipping right now?  The Jupiter?  That's 550GH/s so they would need to ship about 40,000 of those units in the next couple

of months to increase the difficulty at the current average rate.

But let's see what the diff increase is today. Will you publish it here if you're watching it?

Definitely will post it here as soon as I see it...

It looks like the average net hashrate over the last 100 blocks (block 277495-277595) was ~9.9PH/s which is only an increase of 4.5%

from the net hashrate of the last jump (9.5PH/s @ block 276192)

However, after a little more research it looks like the net hash rate has recently been over 30-50PH/s at various block which is a bit unnerving... maybe these are calculation errors or something?  How can the hashrate fluctuate as much as 500% within a few blocks?

All of my data is from here:  http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash/2016

If the average net hashrate data is correct, then I would be shocked if the next difficulty jump is not under 15%

Edit:  Okay, I went back 2000 blocks to get a better picture, and also realized I was looking at this wrong... the net hash rate is just a calculation that I was getting from blockexplorer.com so I decided to look at the time of the blocks solved and the past 2000 blocks have been solved at an average of 494.25 seconds each or on target to solve 2016 blocks in 11.53 days.

This is 17.6% below the target time of 10 minutes per block, so the difficulty should adjust ~18% correct?

[nodroids]

Wow, you're saying that the network might actually decrease in difficulty (possible in the blockchain?), if it even stays the same for the next month, and you called it, that is like world wide, front page breaking news. Mr. Exclusive Damnsammit

[Damnsammit]

Wow, you're saying that the network might actually decrease in difficulty (possible in the blockchain?), if it even stays the same for the next month, and you called it, that is like world wide, front page breaking news. Mr. Exclusive Damnsammit

I never said it would decrease... I said it would be nice if it would decrease in difficulty but that I don't think we will see that happening before all 21 million Bitcoins have been mined.

The only point of this thread was that people keep saying ASIC X will never ROI, and they are basing this on the continued climbing difficulty.  I am trying to get more information on how the difficulty can continue to climb at the %rate that it has been the last 6 months.  To that, I say that instead of the 30-40% increases we have been seeing for most of the last quarter will be halved starting with the next difficulty jump that will happen tomorrow.

Granted, the likelihood of a lot of miners being profitable is a tossup because we can't effectively calculate what the difficulty will be in March/April of 2014 however, even if the difficulty only increases 15% over the next 10 retargets we are looking at a network hashrate of 40+ PH/s by the end of March.  I don't know how this can be possible and feel that the difficulty climbs are going to have to slow down soon - not stop. If the average difficulty jump goes down from 28.75% to 14% for a few months, then it is very possible for a lot of the current ASIC devices to ROI.

Although, after all of that is said, I thought this was already happening in November when we saw consecutive retargets of <20%...

[gamersglory]

The first Hashfast and cointerra miners are starting to go out that's why.

https://twitter.com/HashFast/status/418106414280609793

[timmmers]

The first Hashfast and cointerra miners are starting to go out that's why.

https://twitter.com/HashFast/status/418106414280609793

The email I had a few hours ago from Cointerra says different. Chips and boards..no rigs. Pretty pics of the boards and chips..not a finished machine in sight. They would mention that wouldn't they?

Worry about the KNC rigs, early and faster seems likely so 2400 x 4 or 5 TH rigs about march. That's pretty likely

[Damnsammit]

Yup. Almost time to list my Cube on eGay.

[U1TRA_L0RD]

So, what is butterfly labs doing know, well let me tell you, people that are dumb and keep theyre company up by buying from them and waiting half a year to receive their miner which wont be worth it since the difficulty rose up.

[Damnsammit]

So, what is butterfly labs doing know, well let me tell you, people that are dumb and keep theyre company up by buying from them and waiting half a year to receive their miner which wont be worth it since the difficulty rose up.

If half the shit I hear about BFL on here is true, it's only a matter of time before they get shut down.

[cp1]

It's very possible that there is a lull in difficulty for say a month.  But expect a huge increase as the next stuff comes up.  Like 15% increase for three jumps and then 100% increase for the next jump.

[Damnsammit]

It's very possible that there is a lull in difficulty for say a month.  But expect a huge increase as the next stuff comes up.  Like 15% increase for three jumps and then 100% increase for the next jump.

I'm thinking it will be something similar to that, but maybe 5 15-20% jumps and then a couple of huge ones as the 28nm ASICs that are pushing 2-5TH/s each hit the market.  Looks to be a rough year for the ASIC miner.  Scrypt is going to get overloaded... which alt-coin wins this year? Litecoin, something else?  Hmmmm

[U1TRA_L0RD]

So, what is butterfly labs doing know, well let me tell you, people that are dumb and keep theyre company up by buying from them and waiting half a year to receive their miner which wont be worth it since the difficulty rose up.

If half the shit I hear about BFL on here is true, it's only a matter of time before they get shut down.

Yes, I think bitcoin mining should stop because no one is really making profit.

[Damnsammit]

Yes, I think bitcoin mining should stop because no one is really making profit.

It's big-time players now, bud.  If you don't have a couple hundred grand to throw around, it's probably best to buy it.

Or Scrypt mine...  no ASICs... then it will be CPU mining... now that hobbyists have been created there is no end to the mining culture and the land of the forever altcoins.

[U1TRA_L0RD]

Yes, I think bitcoin mining should stop because no one is really making profit.

It's big-time players now, bud.  If you don't have a couple hundred grand to throw around, it's probably best to buy it.

Or Scrypt mine...  no ASICs... then it will be CPU mining... now that hobbyists have been created there is no end to the mining culture and the land of the forever altcoins.

Yes, Donald Trump probaly has the biggest warehouse of miners lol

[timmmers]

So, what is butterfly labs doing know, well let me tell you, people that are dumb and keep theyre company up by buying from them and waiting half a year to receive their miner which wont be worth it since the difficulty rose up.

If half the shit I hear about BFL on here is true, it's only a matter of time before they get shut down.

Yes, I think bitcoin mining should stop because no one is really making profit.

Been that way a while now, depending on how you look at it, or more accurately if you weigh buying BTC against buying a rig to mine them.

You'd imagine my KNC merc costing 2k dollars and mining 8 BTC since late Oct was a profit wouldn't you? Fact is, that was 20 BTC back then...so the way I look at it is a cash profit (at the moment), but in BTC it's unlikely it would ever break even. Worse, it was supposed to mine at 100GH and it's sat here at 145 roughly since the hour I got it. If it had worked out as most of us hoped, BTC would be worth 200ish and it would have mined 1/3 less of them. Either way, I'd rather have 20 BTC wouldn't you..and no months of hoping the rig I'd bought would ever arrive or work when it did?

A KNC Neptune would need to mine roughly 10 - 15 BTC to break even when it arrives...at 4TH maybe it will have a better chance ? Even a huge increase in the hashpower added to the network won't do the damage we've seen so far...imagine how many huge rigs would have to start hashing to double what we see today? Not going to happen every month is it?

Rigs like the Neptune look to draw about 2KW too...so large numbers of those in domestic situations isn't easy on the wiring.

I think that for a while at least these bigger 20nm rigs will be nice for those of us with more domestic gear, purely because they will hold value and be something affordable on Ebay...and the only thing worth running at all. Not everyone can afford of wish to sink 10k plus into the bitcoin gamble. A grand or two..maybe.

[U1TRA_L0RD]

Lets say I have a huge mining rig, you know warehouse size compromised of 2,000 usb miners, what will that do in the next 10 years?

[timmmers]

Lets say I have a huge mining rig, you know warehouse size compromised of 2,000 usb miners, what will that do in the next 10 years?

Waste a lot of space. 

[U1TRA_L0RD]

Lets say I have a huge mining rig, you know warehouse size compromised of 2,000 usb miners, what will that do in the next 10 years?

Waste a lot of space. 

No, waste of money, because what all these people are doing is buying mining equipment and the keep building until bitcoin is no longer in mining stage, and they will have more money wasted than bitcoin because of network difficulty.

[Anddos]

I personally think Hashfast are going to make knc miner owners lifes a living hell
and jupiters will be the equivilent of what usb stick miners is now,its going to get really tough this month