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Author Topic: Holy CRAP the manipulator has pulled out!!!!! Freefall seems inevitable  (Read 8611 times)
Piper67
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August 26, 2011, 03:35:45 PM
 #41

I have to admit I have mixed feelings about this,   yea it's dropping in price.. but deposits at flexcoin hit the roof. 


generally there's an inverse relationship ...  (not always but it appears to be that way more than 50% of the time)... 



Heh, Founder, for every BTC sold, one BTC is bought! Thousands of bitcoins have been dumped into the market in the last few hours. Where did you think they'd be going?

If anything, take it as a strong vote of confidence that those buying think Flexcoin is worthy of their trust.

Assuming that the person buying isn't just the person selling them (you just need 2 mt.gox accounts)

You are quite right. But even if that was the case, his or her whole idea in doing that would be to create downwards momentum, so there would be others (miners, hoarders, people who need to pay rent), who'll go into "panic sell" mode.

At which point he can start buying, and when the time is right do the same thing in the opposite direction and then sell and drag down the price and then buy and then....

True, but he (or she) cannot really guarantee that when he dumps thousands of BTC, he'll be able to buy them all back. Some will get snagged by others. Also, he (or she) could get trumped on by someone with more USD at the ready in their account. If you jump in quickly enough, or just a fraction of a cent sooner, you can take all the BTC that the original manipulator wanted for himself (or herself).

It's a bit of a gamble, especially as more traders with money start coming in.

It's a gamble, but someone with the right tools could analyses the orderbook, look for the moment where there is a distribution that allows them to buy back all their own bitcoins plus a few others and drag the price down to the level they want. Anyone with 10,000 btc and $100,000 could do whatever they wanted.  A 6000 btc buy can drag the price down 5%.
My advice would be to assume manipulation and let the manipulator be your guide - ie buy low and sell high (most obvious statement of the year I know - but the market is distorted by big players).

Agreed, at current BTC/USD prices, a trivially small amount of money would allow any trader to make thousands during a five minute break in his lunch hour  Grin

Things will start to change once the price of each BTC rises significantly... that should weed out the small time manipulators.
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August 26, 2011, 04:12:39 PM
 #42

I have to admit I have mixed feelings about this,   yea it's dropping in price.. but deposits at flexcoin hit the roof. 


generally there's an inverse relationship ...  (not always but it appears to be that way more than 50% of the time)... 



Heh, Founder, for every BTC sold, one BTC is bought! Thousands of bitcoins have been dumped into the market in the last few hours. Where did you think they'd be going?

If anything, take it as a strong vote of confidence that those buying think Flexcoin is worthy of their trust.

Assuming that the person buying isn't just the person selling them (you just need 2 mt.gox accounts)

You are quite right. But even if that was the case, his or her whole idea in doing that would be to create downwards momentum, so there would be others (miners, hoarders, people who need to pay rent), who'll go into "panic sell" mode.

At which point he can start buying, and when the time is right do the same thing in the opposite direction and then sell and drag down the price and then buy and then....

True, but he (or she) cannot really guarantee that when he dumps thousands of BTC, he'll be able to buy them all back. Some will get snagged by others. Also, he (or she) could get trumped on by someone with more USD at the ready in their account. If you jump in quickly enough, or just a fraction of a cent sooner, you can take all the BTC that the original manipulator wanted for himself (or herself).

It's a bit of a gamble, especially as more traders with money start coming in.

It's a gamble, but someone with the right tools could analyses the orderbook, look for the moment where there is a distribution that allows them to buy back all their own bitcoins plus a few others and drag the price down to the level they want. Anyone with 10,000 btc and $100,000 could do whatever they wanted.  A 6000 btc buy can drag the price down 5%.
My advice would be to assume manipulation and let the manipulator be your guide - ie buy low and sell high (most obvious statement of the year I know - but the market is distorted by big players).

Agreed, at current BTC/USD prices, a trivially small amount of money would allow any trader to make thousands during a five minute break in his lunch hour  Grin

Things will start to change once the price of each BTC rises significantly... that should weed out the small time manipulators.

What we need is a few more big players - make manipulation more competitive.
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August 26, 2011, 07:00:48 PM
 #43

The real market value is over $30. Get some cheap while you can.

What is this based on?

Not as a skeptical question, but since you as a big pool op. might have better understanding of the market, statistics etc.
(I find $30 perfectly logical in the long term, just would like to know the reasoning)

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Piper67
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August 26, 2011, 07:07:24 PM
 #44

The real market value is over $30. Get some cheap while you can.

What is this based on?

Not as a skeptical question, but since you as a big pool op. might have better understanding of the market, statistics etc.
(I find $30 perfectly logical in the long term, just would like to know the reasoning)

Heh, the REAL market value is upwards of $10,000 per BTC... it all depends what decade we're talking about  Grin
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August 26, 2011, 07:22:58 PM
 #45


Bitcoin/USD, Mt. Gox, last 60 days. The long, slow slide continues.

It's a long, slow slide as the bubble deflates. The market is so thin that when someone does a big sell, there's a big drop. Then there's a recovery, but it's always lower than the previous high.

Look at the last full year:

Bitcoin - a classic speculative bubble.

I've been saying this consistently for months. Time is proving me right.
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August 26, 2011, 07:31:56 PM
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Long slow slide? Of course! That's what these charts say!
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August 26, 2011, 07:35:57 PM
 #47

Look at the last full year:

Bitcoin - a classic speculative bubble.

I've been saying this consistently for months. Time is proving me right.

The thing with bubbles is:
They either recover to a median value or completely die out. I can't possible imagine the latter at this point. So the question we have to ask us: where will the median be?

Also, especially within bitcoin there is a fractal pattern of bubbles, this is just the biggest yet and there are even larger ones coming up. and each circle takes proportionally longer. The gartner hype cycle and black swan theory both agree on this. So we are absolutely fine. And if you don't have to cash out soon it's even completely fine individually.

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August 27, 2011, 04:55:03 AM
 #48

The thing with bubbles is: They either recover to a median value or completely die out. I can't possible imagine the latter at this point.
Why not? Pyramid schemes normally die out. The only way Bitcoin can have a long life is if it develops substantial use as a medium of exchange. That's not happening. If the Bitcoin world is dominated by speculation, it's doomed.
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August 27, 2011, 05:24:30 AM
 #49

This could honestly be a really bad down turn coming. It may even reach new lows.

What would a "new" low be?  Considering that the USD price of BTC started at $0, I don't think you can really get much lower than that. (:

Unless you want to PAY me to take your Bitcoins, which I'll be happy to do if there ever comes the day...
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August 27, 2011, 06:54:58 AM
 #50

The thing with bubbles is: They either recover to a median value or completely die out. I can't possible imagine the latter at this point.
Why not? Pyramid schemes normally die out. The only way Bitcoin can have a long life is if it develops substantial use as a medium of exchange. That's not happening. If the Bitcoin world is dominated by speculation, it's doomed.

I don't think bitcoin can be described as a pyramid scheme.  It's more like a dotcom stock in 1999.  There's a lot of hype, a big push towards the 'new paradigm' by supporters and those with vested interests, and very little real economic activity to support it all.  The dotcom bubble didn't burst because it was a pyramid scheme.  It burst because people opened their eyes and looked at why they should keep investing in it.  They saw nothing, and left in a mad rush.


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August 27, 2011, 07:10:31 AM
 #51

I don't think bitcoin can be described as a pyramid scheme.  It's more like a dotcom stock in 1999.  There's a lot of hype, a big push towards the 'new paradigm' by supporters and those with vested interests, and very little real economic activity to support it all.  The dotcom bubble didn't burst because it was a pyramid scheme.  It burst because people opened their eyes and looked at why they should keep investing in it.  They saw nothing, and left in a mad rush.

Bitcoin isn't like a stock because it doesn't generate revenue. The speculation end is a zero-sum game. 

I agree about the "lot of hype, new paradigm talk, very little economic activity" part. 
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August 27, 2011, 08:15:48 AM
 #52

I don't think bitcoin can be described as a pyramid scheme.  It's more like a dotcom stock in 1999.  There's a lot of hype, a big push towards the 'new paradigm' by supporters and those with vested interests, and very little real economic activity to support it all.  The dotcom bubble didn't burst because it was a pyramid scheme.  It burst because people opened their eyes and looked at why they should keep investing in it.  They saw nothing, and left in a mad rush.

Bitcoin isn't like a stock because it doesn't generate revenue. The speculation end is a zero-sum game. 

A large majority of dotcom stocks didn't generate any revenue either :-)  They were rather brilliant at burning cash however.

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August 27, 2011, 08:24:01 AM
 #53

I don't think bitcoin can be described as a pyramid scheme.  It's more like a dotcom stock in 1999.  There's a lot of hype, a big push towards the 'new paradigm' by supporters and those with vested interests, and very little real economic activity to support it all.  The dotcom bubble didn't burst because it was a pyramid scheme.  It burst because people opened their eyes and looked at why they should keep investing in it.  They saw nothing, and left in a mad rush.

Bitcoin isn't like a stock because it doesn't generate revenue. The speculation end is a zero-sum game. 

I agree about the "lot of hype, new paradigm talk, very little economic activity" part. 


It has potential to "generate revenue" by avoiding taxes and Fees.

Though there is 7200 new each day! If you would stop the amount of new bitcoins generated now it would not go lower.
But right now Investors need to put in $7200 x8 each day to keep the longterm value above $8. Even if miners would only sell half of that.

$7200 x4 is still plenty of money to get into the economy every day.



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August 27, 2011, 09:18:53 AM
 #54

As mentioned before, one big issue with bitcoin is related to one of its greatest benefits: The decentralization. This fosters individuals randomly developing (often great businesses around bitcoin). But noone coordinates PR, marketing , advertising, which means a lot of waste and contradictory messages.

Companies -at least many of them- do consistent brand building, which bitcoins are lacking massively.

If this does not start quickly, the "outside world" will be successful keeping bitcoins down. I.e. bitcoins is acompetition to government currencies, to big credit cards companies, etc.

Coordinated efforts are needed from all of us bitcoiners, rather than complaining and debating about minor issues in this forum foreever.


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August 27, 2011, 11:49:22 AM
 #55

As mentioned before, one big issue with bitcoin is related to one of its greatest benefits: The decentralization. This fosters individuals randomly developing (often great businesses around bitcoin). But noone coordinates PR, marketing , advertising, which means a lot of waste and contradictory messages.

Companies -at least many of them- do consistent brand building, which bitcoins are lacking massively.

If this does not start quickly, the "outside world" will be successful keeping bitcoins down. I.e. bitcoins is acompetition to government currencies, to big credit cards companies, etc.

Coordinated efforts are needed from all of us bitcoiners, rather than complaining and debating about minor issues in this forum foreever.
+1

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August 28, 2011, 06:47:51 AM
 #56

If this does not start quickly, the "outside world" will be successful keeping bitcoins down. I.e. bitcoins is acompetition to government currencies, to big credit cards companies, etc.

Coordinated efforts are needed from all of us bitcoiners, rather than complaining and debating about minor issues in this forum foreever.

This forum is called Speculation.  I agree endless posts speculating about bitcoin's value would be out of place in a software development forum, or product ideas forum.

Is bitcoin a competition to government currencies or Visa/Mastercard/etc?  Maybe one day, in the distant future, if everything goes right.  The outside world doesn't have to be successful in keeping bitcoins down.  It sounds like a conspiracy theory.  Bitcoin needs to prove its worth by doing something useful.

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August 28, 2011, 06:58:09 AM
 #57

The 7200 x $8 is based on a false assumption. Namely that those 7200 BTC are going to be sold on for US dollars the same day and all the $ denominated exchanges will have price parity.

The fact is that doesn't happen. BTC are converted into several currencies and ppl. don't sell all their BTC everyday. There are plenty of people in it for the long term. There are also people the buy things with their BTC.

7200 x whatever is bogus.
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August 28, 2011, 11:31:18 AM
 #58

The 7200 x $8 is based on a false assumption. Namely that those 7200 BTC are going to be sold on for US dollars the same day and all the $ denominated exchanges will have price parity.

The fact is that doesn't happen. BTC are converted into several currencies and ppl. don't sell all their BTC everyday. There are plenty of people in it for the long term. There are also people the buy things with their BTC.

7200 x whatever is bogus.
+1

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August 31, 2011, 05:22:47 PM
 #59

The OP mentioned somethign I found rather interesting.How did he know of a 'manipulator' that affected BTC value? How did they make contact? Is the OP a friend of the 'manipulator'? I think that (even though I feel odd about this idea) we should maybe try to find the next big thing that can affect BTC value for the better as well as maybe bringing him/her back if possible.I want to get the best price for my BTC and just move onto other business ventures.

Will prices bounce backup for BTC or is it in freefall for good now? Has anyone got the charts for the value?

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August 31, 2011, 05:30:48 PM
 #60

The OP mentioned somethign I found rather interesting.How did he know of a 'manipulator' that affected BTC value? How did they make contact? Is the OP a friend of the 'manipulator'?
Conspiracy theory much?

He "knows" because it's been a commonly talked about subject.  The market manipulation has been fairly obvious.  Since the Bitcoin market is so small (relatively) in comparison to major markets, it doesn't take much to buy in and swing the market around.

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