Official Bitcoin Price Prediction for Dec 31, 2014

[skivrmt]

Also,

can write it as a loss right for taxes?

Can you write a betting loss for taxes?  Generally its a no unless you having a betting gain to offset it (simplified answer).  Unless of course you file as a professional gambler then you can write you gains/losses off.

[Wilhelm]

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people 

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

[pietje]

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people 

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

I wonder how the poll was last year. Guess everyone who predicted the price for around 800 would be declared a fool, but look at us now.

So if we reach 10k next year it will be only x12 instead of x50 like last year, although i dont think we can expect another x50.

[JimboToronto]

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people 

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

It's nice to see you consider me a realist, although I consider myself a holder (hoadrer).

 

[skivrmt]

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people 

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

Am I a pessimistic realist then?    I voted for $2k.  It's funny in real life I'm actually an optimistic realist.  It's amazing what people expect from Bitcoin, I love it.  I mean I voted for a 130% gain in ONE YEAR and I'm not even a realist!

[mskryxz]

I love the turn out of votes

already 151 votes submitted.

I'll keep this thread alive and post again come Dec 31, 2014

[mskryxz]

just quick statistics based on 151 votes



139 - 92% of respondents believe it will be at least $2,000 by december

if we're to go by the majority, it looks like entering the bitcoin market at under $2,000 is a REASONABLE RISK if we believe it will be at least $2k by the end of the year.

[Dragonkiller]

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

[mskryxz]

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

[skivrmt]

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

That part is a bit concerning and doesn't get talked about much.  W Twins filed with the SEC for their ETF back in June.  And it's been eerily quiet on all fronts, W Twins, SEC, etc.  You would think someone would provide an update.  ETF funds usually don't take this long for initially approval.  If their fund gets approved I think we'll see a really nice pop in the price.

[mskryxz]

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

That part is a bit concerning and doesn't get talked about much.  W Twins filed with the SEC for their ETF back in June.  And it's been eerily quiet on all fronts, W Twins, SEC, etc.  You would think someone would provide an update.  ETF funds usually don't take this long for initially approval.  If their fund gets approved I think we'll see a really nice pop in the price.

If it gets approved this June (or 1 year since filing) what do you suppose the price will be in June of 2014?

[skivrmt]

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

That part is a bit concerning and doesn't get talked about much.  W Twins filed with the SEC for their ETF back in June.  And it's been eerily quiet on all fronts, W Twins, SEC, etc.  You would think someone would provide an update.  ETF funds usually don't take this long for initially approval.  If their fund gets approved I think we'll see a really nice pop in the price.

If it gets approved this June (or 1 year since filing) what do you suppose the price will be in June of 2014?

It depends.  I've only skimmed the actually SEC filing.  How is the ETF fund going to be initially funded?  Is it open ended or closed ended?  Huge difference.  Are they selling their own Bitcoins, Bitcoins of other investors or are they buying on the open market?  My initial guess would be a combo of the first two, selling own investments and other early investors in Bitcoin. 

If they sell from an existing supply, the $60MM or so of the fund won't be a fundamental pop, it would be an emotional pop.  My quote of a really nice pop is simply from easy access to the mainstream investor of an emotional pop.

[BitchicksHusband]

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

That part is a bit concerning and doesn't get talked about much.  W Twins filed with the SEC for their ETF back in June.  And it's been eerily quiet on all fronts, W Twins, SEC, etc.  You would think someone would provide an update.  ETF funds usually don't take this long for initially approval.  If their fund gets approved I think we'll see a really nice pop in the price.

ETF funds average 12-18 months to get approved, although some have been as quick as 5-6 months.  Given that bitcoin is completely new to the SEC, it will probably not be on the low side.

[Dafar]

I dont care what anyone says ITT... 5 figures or bust

Wake me up when btc is at least $10k

[skivrmt]

I dont care what anyone says ITT... 5 figures or bust

Wake me up when btc is at least $10k

What happens at $10k?  It's like the magic ceiling we had int he past with the DOW reaching $10k.  It's just a number.  Do you sell?  Do you hold?  Are we all richer?

[Bono]

I dont care what anyone says ITT... 5 figures or bust

Wake me up when btc is at least $10k

What happens at $10k?  It's like the magic ceiling we had int he past with the DOW reaching $10k.  It's just a number.  Do you sell?  Do you hold?  Are we all richer?

It is another one of those psychologically pleasing numbers that may cause a big sell-off.

If it can hit plateaus like this and keep growing, that is a sign of strength.

[Dafar]

I dont care what anyone says ITT... 5 figures or bust

Wake me up when btc is at least $10k

What happens at $10k?  It's like the magic ceiling we had int he past with the DOW reaching $10k.  It's just a number.  Do you sell?  Do you hold?  Are we all richer?

I'll be very rich, that's what will happen. I dunno about you but I like financial freedom. That's why it bugs me when people say "the price does not matter"....umm, yes it does.

[RaphM]

75000 seems reasonable

[skivrmt]

I dont care what anyone says ITT... 5 figures or bust

Wake me up when btc is at least $10k

What happens at $10k?  It's like the magic ceiling we had int he past with the DOW reaching $10k.  It's just a number.  Do you sell?  Do you hold?  Are we all richer?

I'll be very rich, that's what will happen. I dunno about you but I like financial freedom. That's why it bugs me when people say "the price does not matter"....umm, yes it does.

Financial freedom seems nice.  $10k will do that for you?  I'd need more like $40k.   But I honestly don't think we can do much more than $2k by year's end.  I hope I'm wrong and you're right.

[mcleo]

I'll say $3,500.