Official Bitcoin Price Prediction for Dec 31, 2014

[mskryxz]

What will the price be at the end of the year?

I will bump this thread at the end of the year to display the % of whom were correct.

[1715477141]

1715477141

[1715477141]

1715477141

[1715477141]

1715477141

[1715477141]

1715477141

[Bono]

$1000 is a given.

$1500 is likely.

$2000 is a goal.

Edit: I'm not saying $2000 is very unlikely, just that I'd be very pleased to see it.

[vandeam]

my bet is 2000$

[Len]

Roughly $3841.27

[mskryxz]

I voted $3,000 just to be realistic in terms of the amount of publicity and businesses accepting it but wow if it reaches $10,000+ I'd be impressed.

[mskryxz]

Quite a few of you who believe in $10,000. Wow.

Not that I don't want it to but that would be awesome.

I'd personally be happy at $3,000+ at the end of the year.

[zimmah]

i think it will rise to 10,000 somewhere in the year, but it will crash back to about 3000 and then, depending on when the crash and rise happened, it will slowly increase towards 4000~5000 and probably be around that price at the end of the year.

[mskryxz]

sticky please maybe?

so we can just have 1 thread to go to without seeing multiple threads posted every day on price projections

[BitchicksHusband]

It's gone up at least 10× every year so far.  Don't see any reason why 2014 will be slower.  Based on the adoption curve and where we are on it, it should be FASTER.  

LATE EDIT: Forgot to guess: $45,000

[Spjuth]

This guy is right: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI

Second part of 2013 we hit the bottom part of the S-curve increase. 2014 will go through the middle/top part.
So I would guess that the increase in price will be at least as much as in 2013. We will surely hit $40.000/BTC by end of 2014!

[Foxpup]

$95,000

[spoorancher]

Not in a bubble? $2,500. In a bubble? $10K.

[mskryxz]

i wish it was dec 2014 already

[alexeft]

i wish it was dec 2014 already

LOL!!! True!!

[mskryxz]

i wish it was dec 2014 already

LOL!!! True!!

i voted $3000

come dec 31, 2014 i hope to come back to my thread and am hopefully wrong and we are at 10k lol

[skivrmt]

I think $10k would be a bit too high.  Yes, we've grown more than that up until this point, but it always becomes a questions of market capitalization.  The amount of new capital that needs to flow into XBT from $1 to $100 was -relatively- small.  $100 to $1000 was about ~9B.  $1000 to $10000 would be ~$100B in NEW capital.  I'm not saying we can't do it, just that it's rather unlikly.

I notice 10k or more seems to have the most votes so far.  For those that think so, put your money where your mouth (vote) is!  You get decent odds right now:

http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/

I bet no.  Even if I'm wrong I kinda still win... 

[mskryxz]

I think $10k would be a bit too high.  Yes, we've grown more than that up until this point, but it always becomes a questions of market capitalization.  The amount of new capital that needs to flow into XBT from $1 to $100 was -relatively- small.  $100 to $1000 was about ~9B.  $1000 to $10000 would be ~$100B in NEW capital.  I'm not saying we can't do it, just that it's rather unlikly.

I notice 10k or more seems to have the most votes so far.  For those that think so, put your money where your mouth (vote) is!  You get decent odds right now:

http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/

I bet no.  Even if I'm wrong I kinda still win... 

Very tempting to play.

Even if you vote no and it reaches 10k and you lose 1 btc, it is still a win situation overall since it goes all the way up to 10k in this example.
If it doesn't go to 10k, lets say 7500, if you voted no, you also win 7500 on top of the btc price increasing already.

[mskryxz]

Also,

can write it as a loss right for taxes?

[BitchicksHusband]

I think $10k would be a bit too high.  Yes, we've grown more than that up until this point, but it always becomes a questions of market capitalization.  The amount of new capital that needs to flow into XBT from $1 to $100 was -relatively- small.  $100 to $1000 was about ~9B.  $1000 to $10000 would be ~$100B in NEW capital.  I'm not saying we can't do it, just that it's rather unlikly.

I notice 10k or more seems to have the most votes so far.  For those that think so, put your money where your mouth (vote) is!  You get decent odds right now:

http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/

I bet no.  Even if I'm wrong I kinda still win... 

I'm pretty sure I'm betting by having a large portion of my savings tied up in bitcoin....

[pietje]

I really think we can hit 10k, although it will depend a bit on the wallstreet/overstock news.
So far it is looking good

[skivrmt]

Also,

can write it as a loss right for taxes?

Can you write a betting loss for taxes?  Generally its a no unless you having a betting gain to offset it (simplified answer).  Unless of course you file as a professional gambler then you can write you gains/losses off.

[Wilhelm]

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people 

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

[pietje]

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people 

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

I wonder how the poll was last year. Guess everyone who predicted the price for around 800 would be declared a fool, but look at us now.

So if we reach 10k next year it will be only x12 instead of x50 like last year, although i dont think we can expect another x50.

[JimboToronto]

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people 

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

It's nice to see you consider me a realist, although I consider myself a holder (hoadrer).

 

[skivrmt]

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people 

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

Am I a pessimistic realist then?    I voted for $2k.  It's funny in real life I'm actually an optimistic realist.  It's amazing what people expect from Bitcoin, I love it.  I mean I voted for a 130% gain in ONE YEAR and I'm not even a realist!

[mskryxz]

I love the turn out of votes

already 151 votes submitted.

I'll keep this thread alive and post again come Dec 31, 2014

[mskryxz]

just quick statistics based on 151 votes



139 - 92% of respondents believe it will be at least $2,000 by december

if we're to go by the majority, it looks like entering the bitcoin market at under $2,000 is a REASONABLE RISK if we believe it will be at least $2k by the end of the year.

[Dragonkiller]

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

[mskryxz]

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

[skivrmt]

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

That part is a bit concerning and doesn't get talked about much.  W Twins filed with the SEC for their ETF back in June.  And it's been eerily quiet on all fronts, W Twins, SEC, etc.  You would think someone would provide an update.  ETF funds usually don't take this long for initially approval.  If their fund gets approved I think we'll see a really nice pop in the price.

[mskryxz]

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

That part is a bit concerning and doesn't get talked about much.  W Twins filed with the SEC for their ETF back in June.  And it's been eerily quiet on all fronts, W Twins, SEC, etc.  You would think someone would provide an update.  ETF funds usually don't take this long for initially approval.  If their fund gets approved I think we'll see a really nice pop in the price.

If it gets approved this June (or 1 year since filing) what do you suppose the price will be in June of 2014?

[skivrmt]

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

That part is a bit concerning and doesn't get talked about much.  W Twins filed with the SEC for their ETF back in June.  And it's been eerily quiet on all fronts, W Twins, SEC, etc.  You would think someone would provide an update.  ETF funds usually don't take this long for initially approval.  If their fund gets approved I think we'll see a really nice pop in the price.

If it gets approved this June (or 1 year since filing) what do you suppose the price will be in June of 2014?

It depends.  I've only skimmed the actually SEC filing.  How is the ETF fund going to be initially funded?  Is it open ended or closed ended?  Huge difference.  Are they selling their own Bitcoins, Bitcoins of other investors or are they buying on the open market?  My initial guess would be a combo of the first two, selling own investments and other early investors in Bitcoin. 

If they sell from an existing supply, the $60MM or so of the fund won't be a fundamental pop, it would be an emotional pop.  My quote of a really nice pop is simply from easy access to the mainstream investor of an emotional pop.

[BitchicksHusband]

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

That part is a bit concerning and doesn't get talked about much.  W Twins filed with the SEC for their ETF back in June.  And it's been eerily quiet on all fronts, W Twins, SEC, etc.  You would think someone would provide an update.  ETF funds usually don't take this long for initially approval.  If their fund gets approved I think we'll see a really nice pop in the price.

ETF funds average 12-18 months to get approved, although some have been as quick as 5-6 months.  Given that bitcoin is completely new to the SEC, it will probably not be on the low side.

[Dafar]

I dont care what anyone says ITT... 5 figures or bust

Wake me up when btc is at least $10k

[skivrmt]

I dont care what anyone says ITT... 5 figures or bust

Wake me up when btc is at least $10k

What happens at $10k?  It's like the magic ceiling we had int he past with the DOW reaching $10k.  It's just a number.  Do you sell?  Do you hold?  Are we all richer?

[Bono]

I dont care what anyone says ITT... 5 figures or bust

Wake me up when btc is at least $10k

What happens at $10k?  It's like the magic ceiling we had int he past with the DOW reaching $10k.  It's just a number.  Do you sell?  Do you hold?  Are we all richer?

It is another one of those psychologically pleasing numbers that may cause a big sell-off.

If it can hit plateaus like this and keep growing, that is a sign of strength.

[Dafar]

I dont care what anyone says ITT... 5 figures or bust

Wake me up when btc is at least $10k

What happens at $10k?  It's like the magic ceiling we had int he past with the DOW reaching $10k.  It's just a number.  Do you sell?  Do you hold?  Are we all richer?

I'll be very rich, that's what will happen. I dunno about you but I like financial freedom. That's why it bugs me when people say "the price does not matter"....umm, yes it does.

[RaphM]

75000 seems reasonable

[skivrmt]

I dont care what anyone says ITT... 5 figures or bust

Wake me up when btc is at least $10k

What happens at $10k?  It's like the magic ceiling we had int he past with the DOW reaching $10k.  It's just a number.  Do you sell?  Do you hold?  Are we all richer?

I'll be very rich, that's what will happen. I dunno about you but I like financial freedom. That's why it bugs me when people say "the price does not matter"....umm, yes it does.

Financial freedom seems nice.  $10k will do that for you?  I'd need more like $40k.   But I honestly don't think we can do much more than $2k by year's end.  I hope I'm wrong and you're right.

[mcleo]

I'll say $3,500.

[Dafar]

I dont care what anyone says ITT... 5 figures or bust

Wake me up when btc is at least $10k

What happens at $10k?  It's like the magic ceiling we had int he past with the DOW reaching $10k.  It's just a number.  Do you sell?  Do you hold?  Are we all richer?

I'll be very rich, that's what will happen. I dunno about you but I like financial freedom. That's why it bugs me when people say "the price does not matter"....umm, yes it does.

Financial freedom seems nice.  $10k will do that for you?  I'd need more like $40k.   But I honestly don't think we can do much more than $2k by year's end.  I hope I'm wrong and you're right.

Nah, $10k actually won't do that for me either... but it would be a heck lot of capital for my age and I could quit my job for a few years and try to figure out some other ventures. It would be good capital to make more money and pay off all my debts. With $40k I can possibly retire and live a decent life without being too lavish.

[bitrider]

i think it will rise to 10,000 somewhere in the year, but it will crash back to about 3000 and then, depending on when the crash and rise happened, it will slowly increase towards 4000~5000 and probably be around that price at the end of the year.

+1 My guess as well.

[zemario]

It's gone up at least 10× every year so far.  Don't see any reason why 2014 will be slower.  Based on the adoption curve and where we are on it, it should be FASTER.  

LATE EDIT: Forgot to guess: $45,000

People feel intellectually/morally superior by not making optimistic predictions. They believe they are smarter because they say something that could not be considered enthusiastic.

[mskryxz]

210 votes

cmon guys lets keep the votes coming in

[skivrmt]

It's gone up at least 10× every year so far.  Don't see any reason why 2014 will be slower.  Based on the adoption curve and where we are on it, it should be FASTER.  

LATE EDIT: Forgot to guess: $45,000

People feel intellectually/morally superior by not making optimistic predictions. They believe they are smarter because they say something that could not be considered enthusiastic.

I am intellectually superior. Probably morally superior also . I am also an optimistic realist. $45k by years end is kind of ridiculous. Think about how much NEW money needs to flow into Bitcoin on 1 year?  Almost $350 Billion.  Will that ever happen? Probably. 1 year? Too quick I think.

[Dragonkiller]

It's gone up at least 10× every year so far.  Don't see any reason why 2014 will be slower.  Based on the adoption curve and where we are on it, it should be FASTER.  

LATE EDIT: Forgot to guess: $45,000

People feel intellectually/morally superior by not making optimistic predictions. They believe they are smarter because they say something that could not be considered enthusiastic.

I am intellectually superior. Probably morally superior also . I am also an optimistic realist. $45k by years end is kind of ridiculous. Think about how much NEW money needs to flow into Bitcoin on 1 year?  Almost $350 Billion.  Will that ever happen? Probably. 1 year? Too quick I think.

would you have thought $1000+ was possible in 2013 when it was ~$10 at the beginning of the year?

[Dafar]

It's gone up at least 10× every year so far.  Don't see any reason why 2014 will be slower.  Based on the adoption curve and where we are on it, it should be FASTER.  

LATE EDIT: Forgot to guess: $45,000

People feel intellectually/morally superior by not making optimistic predictions. They believe they are smarter because they say something that could not be considered enthusiastic.

I am intellectually superior. Probably morally superior also . I am also an optimistic realist. $45k by years end is kind of ridiculous. Think about how much NEW money needs to flow into Bitcoin on 1 year?  Almost $350 Billion.  Will that ever happen? Probably. 1 year? Too quick I think.

would you have thought $1000+ was possible in 2013 when it was ~$10 at the beginning of the year?

Yes, easily

But who cares abt 1000... 5 figures or bust

[Dragonkiller]

It's gone up at least 10× every year so far.  Don't see any reason why 2014 will be slower.  Based on the adoption curve and where we are on it, it should be FASTER.  

LATE EDIT: Forgot to guess: $45,000

People feel intellectually/morally superior by not making optimistic predictions. They believe they are smarter because they say something that could not be considered enthusiastic.

I am intellectually superior. Probably morally superior also . I am also an optimistic realist. $45k by years end is kind of ridiculous. Think about how much NEW money needs to flow into Bitcoin on 1 year?  Almost $350 Billion.  Will that ever happen? Probably. 1 year? Too quick I think.

would you have thought $1000+ was possible in 2013 when it was ~$10 at the beginning of the year?

Yes, easily

But who cares abt 1000... 5 figures or bust

all the people that got in at 0,1,2,3 figures care

[JMAHH]

A lot of people seem to be thinking along the 10-100-1000-10000 line, but even with catalysts that's a stretch. However a multiple of 1,000 seems reasonable, given growing adoption & traffic.

[skivrmt]

A lot of people seem to be thinking along the 10-100-1000-10000 line, but even with catalysts that's a stretch. However a multiple of 1,000 seems reasonable, given growing adoption & traffic.

Exactly. What exactly does 10-100-1000 mean? Sure they are they are nice round numbers and psychologically investors like those numbers. Whether Dow at 5000, 10000, 15000.  Bitcoin has to become a lot more mainstream for it to have a market cap over $100B and then $400B...

But I do believe in the long run it will get there...

[pietje]

A lot of people seem to be thinking along the 10-100-1000-10000 line, but even with catalysts that's a stretch. However a multiple of 1,000 seems reasonable, given growing adoption & traffic.

Exactly. What exactly does 10-100-1000 mean? Sure they are they are nice round numbers and psychologically investors like those numbers. Whether Dow at 5000, 10000, 15000.  Bitcoin has to become a lot more mainstream for it to have a market cap over $100B and then $400B...

But I do believe in the long run it will get there...

The bigger the market cap, the more chance we have about bitcoin getting more adopted.
So far, this year looks like the year of the adoption with big companies getting in.

[mskryxz]

2k April
3k August
4k December
!

[mskryxz]

If I could change my vote, I would say 10k actually.

[mestar]

I predict $100.  Ah, hell, I'll just copy past from another thread:

->
History shows that every time the difficulty decreases for more than 30%, Bitcoin loses about 90% of its value. 

Ok, it happened once, from June 2011 to December 2011. But still, you can see it here http://blockchained.com/, 7th chart from the top, titled Bitcoin difficulty vs market price logaritmic, all data. 

It's quite logical.  Decreasing difficulty means that miners are operating at the edge of zero profitability, and must sell almost all their new coins to cover the cost of electricity.  Also, decreasing difficulty dampens the speculators' spirits.  No new speculating cash coming in, and miners must sell.

Expect this phase to begin in 3 to 7 months, that is when a long slide down will start.  If it loses 90%, it means going down to $100, but since we are at much higher levels now, it could be a bigger slide, it could easily go down to $10 to $50 range.
<-

[mskryxz]

Any new members since this was posted want to add in their votes ?

[kireinaha]

We'll have two more rallies this year, first in April/May and another in October/November. The first rally will take us to $2,500 and the second to $5,000. We'll then finish the year at $4,000.

[skivrmt]

We'll have two more rallies this year, first in April/May and another in October/November. The first rally will take us to $2,500 and the second to $5,000. We'll then finish the year at $4,000.

Those are some rallies.  So from these levels, you're talking about $40 BILLION in new dollars flowing into Bitcoin, as in NEW money.  Can it happen?  Sure, it can happen.  Will it happen?  Probably not this soon until W Twins ETF comes out (which rumor has it won't until late this year if at all) or Amazon accepts Bitcoin.

[gentlemand]

It would make a $40 billion market cap. Does anyone think anywhere near $8-10 billion dollars has been spent so far?

It would only require a fraction of actual expenditure of that to reach that figure. There's only a few tens or hundreds of thousands of coins available for sale at any one time.

[mskryxz]

Bumping this old thread so we can get new votes in now that we are halfway to December.

If you are new or just haven't voted, cast in your vote and let's see what the community thinks.

I'll revive this thread again at the end of the year.

[Febo]

Yes i am new and is just as everyone predicted. BitCoin is so predictable. I love it because of that.

[okotomi1]

The price would be 555,54$ +/- 30$. Nothing more and nothing less.

[Swordsoffreedom]

My price estimate going into the end of the year of 2014
Is closer to the range of 2500 +- 300
In other words I expect a 5 fold increase between now and the end of the year in relation to where the Bitcoin price is now.

[K128kevin2]

I predict around $1,500-$2,000. However, I think it will go higher than that before December, and during December it will be on its way back down. I would predict it to peak around August or September.

[beetcoin]

i put in my vote at around $2,000. if that were the case, year to year, it would only have been something like a 120% gain.. which is much, much less than the previous years.

[ThomasCrowne]

my noob guess:

~$1,183.73

*expecting some serious resistance/dumping once bitcoin approaches the price of gold once again.

[Dafar]

My expert guess -- $870

[bitcoinbelieve]

I would say it could range 2~3 K. 10K is too much

[mskryxz]

Bump, looking for new members to vote

[spud21]

I'd say £300 if this bitlicense thing is still dragging on, and if they do a terrible job of redrafting it.

[Swordsoffreedom]

I like to be bold
Over 1250 dollar by the end of the year December 31st, 2014

With the rally beginning soon 

[firstlast]

$700 by the end of the year

[MundoCrypto]

Between 750-950 USD

[vuduchyld]

Wow...the tenor of the predictions sure has changed.

I'm just now seeing this thread in August, and I have to be honest...you guys are ALL bolder than me.  I wouldn't even begin to DREAM of predicting.  I mean, really, December 31 is kind of an arbitrary timeframe if you think about it.  I don't know what markets will do, so I don't know what the price will be.  I do think the value is increasing every day, and I think it will continue to grow for years.  But I don't know (or really actually care) what the price does. 

[tommy1691]

10k? are u kidding me...we'll be lucky if it even breaks 1k again this fall

[Wandererfromthenorth]

lol

[RyNinDaCleM]

It's starting to look like the ole' 80/20 rule!
80% will lose so that the 20% can win

[iawgoM]

I'd say between 100 and 500, but I would be happy to see 1K+

[zahra4571]

Between 600-850$ max
I doubt the price will be over 1k again like last year, it look like its stabilized and it will stay less than 1k for a 2 year or more

[Wexlike]

Around 800$. 800 will be the new 500.

Bad year for bitcoin. 

[Dafar]

2014 = SHIT year for bitcoin, sorry but I've said it over and over again and it's true

The good news? There will be better years... lol at people who keep saying 2014 is "the year of bitcoin" haha

[Wilhelm]

2014 = SHIT year for bitcoin, sorry but I've said it over and over again and it's true

The good news? There will be better years... lol at people who keep saying 2014 is "the year of bitcoin" haha

2014 has been a good year for bitcoin. Maybe not for the price but let's look back for a moment.

- Survived 400+ China Bans
- Survived MtGOX exchange disaster
- Survived SilkRoad hack and auction
- ATMs launched
- Big retailer adoption
- etc.

Bitcoin has shown that it is not a Tulip Craze.

We will probably get better years but we now know Bitcoin is a sound investment with moderate risk (not high as previously).

[blatchcorn]

2014 = SHIT year for bitcoin, sorry but I've said it over and over again and it's true

The good news? There will be better years... lol at people who keep saying 2014 is "the year of bitcoin" haha

2014 has been a good year for bitcoin. Maybe not for the price but let's look back for a moment.

- Survived 400+ China Bans
- Survived MtGOX exchange disaster
- Survived SilkRoad hack and auction
- ATMs launched
- Big retailer adoption
- etc.

Bitcoin has shown that it is not a Tulip Craze.

We will probably get better years but we now know Bitcoin is a sound investment with moderate risk (not high as previously).

Lol most of them were announced by fallling before China did 

[silversmith]

$500-700

[gentlemand]

2014 = SHIT year for bitcoin, sorry but I've said it over and over again and it's true

The good news? There will be better years... lol at people who keep saying 2014 is "the year of bitcoin" haha

Totally shit for gains.

As for actual developments, things have been happening that would've had you electrocuted by this forum for suggesting two or more years ago.

The future is bright. The present either dull as ditch water or shit. You can't have it all all the time.

[mskryxz]

C'mon 1,000 votes before the end of the year!

[ravenjt]

Fascinating poll.
Only 5% think the price will be lower than today!
The problem is that people on this forum probably only have a tiny fraction of the bitcoins, have no resources to buy more, and don't believe enough in their convictions to take a leveraged position.

[atleticofa]

2014 = SHIT year for bitcoin, sorry but I've said it over and over again and it's true

The good news? There will be better years... lol at people who keep saying 2014 is "the year of bitcoin" haha

Don't say stupid things. 2014 is a good year for Bitcoin despite MtGox

http://www.coindesk.com/state-of-bitcoin-q2-2014-report-expanding-bitcoin-economy/

[crocko]

My bet: ~$500

[ravenjt]

This poll should be kept alive, as an indicator of the relative weight of bears versus bulls.
Clearly the vast majority of speculators (on this forum) are wildly bullish...

[skivrmt]

This poll should be kept alive, as an indicator of the relative weight of bears versus bulls.
Clearly the vast majority of speculators (on this forum) are wildly bullish...

Yeah but how things are changing!  This poll was started with almost no one predicting less than $1000.  Amazing how 6-8 months changes almost everyone's mind.  I've said it over and over and over.  I own and believe in Bitcoin, but there was NO WAY it was going to $10k+ a coin this year.  I even placed a good size bet on it not going there on Bitbet. 

Its just not ready yet for that.  Yes, it has increased in price greatly each year before but its the amount of NEW money needed to increase it more is exponentially increased each time the price increases.  $10MM in new money was needed to grow it to $10/coin.  A lot at the time, but nothing today with the current market cap of Bitcoin hovering in the $6-7 billion range.

$10k/coin we were talking close to $70 Billion in new money needed.  People forget how much money you need for the price to keep increasing.  (yes I know it technically doesn't need to be new money but all for all practical purposes it does)  $70 billion is A LOT.  Even with Wall Street involved.  Slow but steady...

[DeadCoin]

What a ridiculous poll, it should be

less than $0.01
$0.01+
$0.1+
$1+
$10-50
$51-100
$100-200
$200+

[truehold3r]

The bitcoin value by the end of the year will increase alot, probably about 5000$.

[Dafar]

The bitcoin value by the end of the year will increase alot, probably about 5000$.

Lol.... that is a ridiculous claim. 99.9999% chance that won't happen

[grappa_barricata]

I think any price prediction in USD is going to be wrong.

[mskryxz]

Love the turn out of votes

Thanks guys.

[ensurance982]

Ha, interesting to see how the sentiment has changes in the meantime! In Januare people were still hoping for $10k or thought that $1k was a given! I guess most people back then found about $3000 to be realistic. Now we're fighting with holding the $500 threshold...

[minerpumpkin]

Ummm difficult now. I think I'm having a beary day, so I'll go with my prediction I just made in another thread: $250 on December 31, 2014! I won't be very happy if that prediction holds true though!

[zimmah]

Ha, interesting to see how the sentiment has changes in the meantime! In Januare people were still hoping for $10k or thought that $1k was a given! I guess most people back then found about $3000 to be realistic. Now we're fighting with holding the $500 threshold...

a lot can happen in 3 months, let's see if bitcoin appreciates during Q4 2014

[beetcoin]

Ha, interesting to see how the sentiment has changes in the meantime! In Januare people were still hoping for $10k or thought that $1k was a given! I guess most people back then found about $3000 to be realistic. Now we're fighting with holding the $500 threshold...

a lot can happen in 3 months, let's see if bitcoin appreciates during Q4 2014

yeah Q4 was pretty big time for bitcoin last year. it'll be interesting to see how this unfolds. the situation in argentina looks to be worsening, possible news on the winklevi twins coming out with an ETF, plus it'll be the holiday season and people spending bitcoins might decrease the price. i wouldn't be surprised to see newegg offer more discounts with bitcoin, as well as overstock and dell.

[ensurance982]

Ha, interesting to see how the sentiment has changes in the meantime! In Januare people were still hoping for $10k or thought that $1k was a given! I guess most people back then found about $3000 to be realistic. Now we're fighting with holding the $500 threshold...

a lot can happen in 3 months, let's see if bitcoin appreciates during Q4 2014

yeah Q4 was pretty big time for bitcoin last year. it'll be interesting to see how this unfolds. the situation in argentina looks to be worsening, possible news on the winklevi twins coming out with an ETF, plus it'll be the holiday season and people spending bitcoins might decrease the price. i wouldn't be surprised to see newegg offer more discounts with bitcoin, as well as overstock and dell.

I think we're now entering the phase where people have returned from their holidays. And traditionally all the regular stock markets start to move as well as soon as the months ending in -ber come around the corner. That being said, I think we may be in for a nice surprise!

[boumalo]

Ha, interesting to see how the sentiment has changes in the meantime! In Januare people were still hoping for $10k or thought that $1k was a given! I guess most people back then found about $3000 to be realistic. Now we're fighting with holding the $500 threshold...

a lot can happen in 3 months, let's see if bitcoin appreciates during Q4 2014

yeah Q4 was pretty big time for bitcoin last year. it'll be interesting to see how this unfolds. the situation in argentina looks to be worsening, possible news on the winklevi twins coming out with an ETF, plus it'll be the holiday season and people spending bitcoins might decrease the price. i wouldn't be surprised to see newegg offer more discounts with bitcoin, as well as overstock and dell.

I think we're now entering the phase where people have returned from their holidays. And traditionally all the regular stock markets start to move as well as soon as the months ending in -ber come around the corner. That being said, I think we may be in for a nice surprise!

Still remember a year not so far away when we had a surprise in October and November and the price went UPPP

[mskryxz]

Bump more votes

[pattu1]

I guess people are going to keep revising their opinion till December end. 

[ravenjt]

Wow. The ratio of bulls to bears used to be much higher. Interesting poll. Should keep it alive for year end.

[boumalo]

Wow. The ratio of bulls to bears used to be much higher. Interesting poll. Should keep it alive for year end.

As we get closer to December 31 the price is going down so it is getting unlikely than we will finish close to 1000$ or higher but it is still possible

We may start in 2014 the rise up to a few thousands Dollars a coin that will happen (hopefully) in 2015

[Thylacine]

Well I made a $50 prop bet with a friend maybe late 2013 it would be over $180 USD by end of 2014. I offered him to buy out for $49 earlier in the year, but I'll let it play out now - he wouldn't accept a buyout now anyway. 

[ravenjt]

Well I made a $50 prop bet with a friend maybe late 2013 it would be over $180 USD by end of 2014. I offered him to buy out for $49 earlier in the year, but I'll let it play out now - he wouldn't accept a buyout now anyway. 

I don't understand. The price must have been around $1,000 when you made the bet?!

[Capt Drake]

500 bucks 

[mskryxz]

Wow. The ratio of bulls to bears used to be much higher. Interesting poll. Should keep it alive for year end.

As we get closer to December 31 the price is going down so it is getting unlikely than we will finish close to 1000$ or higher but it is still possible

We may start in 2014 the rise up to a few thousands Dollars a coin that will happen (hopefully) in 2015

Just remember it took about 60 days to reach $1000+ from $120.

October 5, 2013 - $121
November 28, 2013 - $1,012

Prior to that it was stuck in the $60-130 range from April through October.

Not saying it will happen, but just that anything can happen!

[KIRAZ]

The way it's dropping i doubt we gonna reach 500 above till the send of this year but anything could happen.

[Neotox]

this year was worst year for bitcoin and all altcoins
now even 500$ seems hard for this year
but anything can happen

[MrBig]

Wow. The ratio of bulls to bears used to be much higher. Interesting poll. Should keep it alive for year end.

The ratio of bulls is still much higher. They're just quiet now because the price is dropping and many of them made retarded predictions that are turning out to be way off.

[demgains]

I'm still optimistic about BTC's value, but I think we might have to wait a little bit longer for the next big bubble. December is too soon it seems, but I could be wrong.

[Foxpup]

The ratio of bulls is still much higher. They're just quiet now because the price is dropping and many of them made retarded predictions that are turning out to be way off.

It's funny you should put it like that. Yes, our predictions were quite literally retarded, ie, "slowed or delayed". Bitcoin is still going to the moon, it's just taking longer than we first thought.

[MrBig]

The ratio of bulls is still much higher. They're just quiet now because the price is dropping and many of them made retarded predictions that are turning out to be way off.

It's funny you should put it like that. Yes, our predictions were quite literally retarded, ie, "slowed or delayed". Bitcoin is still going to the moon, it's just taking longer than we first thought.

I got to hand it to you, your comeback was as sly as a fox.

Nicely played

[cbeast]

The ratio of bulls is still much higher. They're just quiet now because the price is dropping and many of them made retarded predictions that are turning out to be way off.

It's funny you should put it like that. Yes, our predictions were quite literally retarded, ie, "slowed or delayed". Bitcoin is still going to the moon, it's just taking longer than we first thought.

I got to hand it to you, your comeback was as sly as a fox.

Nicely played

It's simple physics.

[DeadCoin]

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people 

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

Updated version

Pessimists <$5
Missed the boaters $10-50
Realists $200-400
Optimists/Hodlers >$500

[futurebit640]

My Prediction is 450-500 $
Please hold off a big dump until we cross $400

[coinableS]

Wow, these results are amazing to look back on.
In January I would have said $5,000+.  Today I'm saying $500+.

[mmortal03]

Wow. The ratio of bulls to bears used to be much higher. Interesting poll. Should keep it alive for year end.

As we get closer to December 31 the price is going down so it is getting unlikely than we will finish close to 1000$ or higher but it is still possible

We may start in 2014 the rise up to a few thousands Dollars a coin that will happen (hopefully) in 2015

Just remember it took about 60 days to reach $1000+ from $120.

October 5, 2013 - $121
November 28, 2013 - $1,012

Prior to that it was stuck in the $60-130 range from April through October.

Not saying it will happen, but just that anything can happen!

Yep, it had only broken just past $200 at this point a year ago.

[ravenjt]

Most people who have voted since i revived this thread a week ago, have voted 500+. May be a lo of pumping talk going on as people hope to spend btc for xmas

[Xian01]

Lets hope I'm wrong. I'm calling $150 for Dec 31, 2014.

[Thomas-s]

Lets hope I'm wrong. I'm calling $150 for Dec 31, 2014.

Doesn't seem that unlikely.

[boumalo]

My new prediction is 540$ : a nice recovery to a price we came back to many times during 2013

[yraskk]

520$, I predict this, is a good and affordable price and it isn't absolutely impossible to reach it. So, I'll hope that this will happen, I'm boring to see price at 300$ !

[biggus dickus]

Wow, these results are amazing to look back on.
In January I would have said $5,000+.  Today I'm saying $500+.

I remember people expecting $5,000+ by last summer. I suspect it takes a long time to get people used to paying another step up in price. Getting used to staying above $1, then $10, then $100 took ages, getting used to staying above $1000 might take ages too.

[yefi]

I voted $100+. I want to see pandemonium and exasperation, instead all I see is hope.

[ravenjt]

I predict 240$ based on simple extrapolation of the 3 month decline rate.

[jamesmcghee]

Let's be real guys. bitcoin will never ever exceed the cost of gold. Don't have high hopes.  It will never be more than 600, and it will not stay at that price for long.

[cbeast]

Let's be real guys. bitcoin will never ever exceed the cost of gold. Don't have high hopes.  It will never be more than 600, and it will not stay at that price for long.

Will you also say that gold will never hit 1800 again? Nay Sir! Bitcoin shall rise again!

[CryptoHeaven]

20% think it will be $10,000 in less than 2 months? LOL, I thought I was optimistic with my $500 vote. Yeah we might get to 10 K USD someday guys, but it's gonna take years before it happens. Maybe decades. Be realistic , next hurdle for the next 3-5 years min will be between 1000-5000 K USD, after 5 K, we will see 10 K for sure.

[sgk]

sticky please maybe?

so we can just have 1 thread to go to without seeing multiple threads posted every day on price projections

How is your thread different from all other "multiple threads posted everyday"?
And what makes it "official"? The Bitcoin Foundation is guaranteeing the prices? lol

Voted 500+ BTW; will like to see huge jump, but not going to be over optimistic.

[skivrmt]

20% think it will be $10,000 in less than 2 months? LOL, I thought I was optimistic with my $500 vote. Yeah we might get to 10 K USD someday guys, but it's gonna take years before it happens. Maybe decades. Be realistic , next hurdle for the next 3-5 years min will be between 1000-5000 K USD, after 5 K, we will see 10 K for sure.

You're a little late to the game.   This poll started Jan 1st of this year.  Bitcoin was in a very different "state of mind" back then.  I thought people who though that it would go to 10k plus were nuts also.

It's a lot easier to predict where something will be 2 months from now versus 12 months from now!

[ravenjt]

What do you predict now the volatility is back? Now the proper pumpers and dumpers rule the roost?
I still say 260, end of year

[Swordsoffreedom]

It's getting a lot easier to predict
Now I would say that the real price will be anywhere from 400-600 dollars
With a fairly high probability of being correct.

[EFS]

I think it will be +500$ but I don't know if it goes to 2000 before new year or just stay in 500-600 range.

[mikenz]

Let's be real guys. bitcoin will never ever exceed the cost of gold. Don't have high hopes.  It will never be more than 600, and it will not stay at that price for long.

It was already the double price just a year ago. meet my ignore list, stupid.

[mskryxz]

It's almost the end of the year!

[ravenjt]

Weve been persistently in the 350-400 range for a couple of months now. But im thinking another price drop before year end, to circa 300.

[Tzupy]

I voted 500+ because I thought that by the 31st Dec the market would have found THE bottom and after that gone up,
but now it's obvious that there should have been more options between 100 and 500. Anyway, so many delusional permabulls voted 1000+.

[mskryxz]

I voted 500+ because I thought that by the 31st Dec the market would have found THE bottom and after that gone up,
but now it's obvious that there should have been more options between 100 and 500. Anyway, so many delusional permabulls voted 1000+.

I should have at least put 250 +

[Jennybv1]

What will the price be at the end of the year?

I will bump this thread at the end of the year to display the % of whom were correct.

Hi I'm new to all this was just told about this today I had never herd of a bitcoin before .. can someone help me out here , i'm thinking of buying some or looking into buying some but i know nothing about this in any way. I was told to buy this because i invest in currency eg. Dinar and this also had potental to be worth much more in the near future. Thanks everyone.

[ravenjt]

You should read other sections of this forum to first understand what bitcoin is. Dont start with the speculation forum. This is the place where we are all trying to talk up or talk down the price for personal gain. It is not a good place to learn anything.

[jaredboice]

This thread must be the cave where the trolls dwelleth   

[ravenjt]

This thread must be the cave where the trolls dwelleth   

It's interesting you say that when a good 87% of the people who voted in the poll, that you can see above, are likely to be overly optimistic about the outcome of the price. Most of them wildly optimistic. 87% are bulls. Yet all you see are 'trolls' (bears).

Damn, what does it take to be a bull in your eyes?
Absolutely faith that tomorrow the price will be 10,000 USD?

[redsn0w]

I've voted for : +100  for the simple reason that  it will not be  more than +500 , maybe it will be ~  400 dollars.

[NotLambchop]

I worry about you, gentlemen.  I worry...

[riiiiising]

The thread that all the perma-bulls wish didn't exist. It's like looking back at your old high school yearbook photos.

What was I smoking??

[Nagle]

It's interesting you say that when a good 87% of the people who voted in the poll, that you can see above, are likely to be overly optimistic about the outcome of the price.

We need all those bulls suckers to keep the price up. Bitcoin is zero-sum. as I point out occasionally. For every winner, there must be a loser.

[Martijnvdc]

I worry about you, gentlemen.  I worry...

Ha! Most of those votes were probably at the start of the year though.. Before Mt-Gox... Mt-Goxxed all over the place...

[criptix]

It's interesting you say that when a good 87% of the people who voted in the poll, that you can see above, are likely to be overly optimistic about the outcome of the price.

We need all those bulls suckers to keep the price up. Bitcoin is zero-sum. as I point out occasionally. For every winner, there must be a loser.

wrong, the fed could easily pump bitcoin price to infinity 

[redsn0w]

I think it will never reach ten thousand dollars per bitcoin in only twenty days, it is impossible!

[rogerdonkey]

for end of years bitcoin price prediction is $500 and have 20 days for pump bitcoin price

[fewcoins]

LMFAOOO I love how everyone is putting something above $500+
Literally almost all of you dumb mo'Fing permabulls are wrong... as always!

[fonsie]

LMFAOOO I love how everyone is putting something above $500+
Literally almost all of you dumb mo'Fing permabulls are wrong... as always!

lmfao, perhaps all those dumb mo'Fing permabulls just wanna be more like you, a dumb mo'Fing trollturd.

[NotLambchop]

^
Nah, they seem to enjoy being dumb permabulls.  They congratulate each other for hodling when the price tanks--it's some weird masochistic/humiliation kink...

[Swordsoffreedom]

I worry about you, gentlemen.  I worry...

Fair enough notlambchop

The price did not go into a rally this year that said I look forward to the predictions for 2015
Based on the graph its a bimodal curve with the pessimistic/realist view winning out to the dream state people and hopefuls who were expecting a giant rally.

[darkmind]

I think BTC will continue downward trend to $250, mark my word..

[mskryxz]

I will be making a new one on January 1, 2015.

Just like this thread is the original of them all:

Official Bitcoin Price Prediction for Dec 31, 2014
January 01, 2014, 06:07:25 PM

Remember, once you vote, you are locked for the rest of the year!

[Shiver]

Posted Dec 17th:

I think a little over $300.

[mlferro]

I think it will be between $ 290.00 and $ 300.00

but I hope to be 100% wrong, and the value is greater

[nauane]

$320,00

[Sadique]

One million dollars!

Hahaha seriously about $200

[carlosiness]

I believe it will be above the 320$. But this is very good price..

[ParabellumLite]

All them 1000+ guesses on the first pages. Delusional it was in hindsight. But hindsight is always better .

[BRE]

$380 is the most reasonable price in this january 2015 , we hope more but from 1st November its hard to reach $ 400.

[sniveling]

All them 1000+ guesses on the first pages. Delusional it was in hindsight. But hindsight is always better .

Judging from past performance most waves hit their low point in far less than a year, then started to climb up. I expect those people posting on the first page thought we would hit the low a few months after January then hit another high either before or after Christmas.

[NotLambchop]

People just wanted to believe that price was going to follow y = x^xxx

[Nagle]

The median of the guesses is in the $2K-$3K range. 

With the current price at $317, 2014 will end in the $100 - $500 range. That's a big target. Next year, please provide poll options no more than 2x apart. 

[Betwrong]

funny that most ppl voted $10,000+ 

[JimboToronto]

funny that most ppl voted $10,000+ 

Most of those people voted when the price was over $800, after having reached $1100, crashing to $550, bouncing back to almost $1000 and bottoming at <$400.

This followed a year that saw the price increase 100-fold through 2 bubbles.

If you'd checked the results at the end of January, you'd have found that the vast majority thought we'd see another bubble by midsummer.

Hindsight is always 20/20.

[DeadCoin]

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people 

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

Boat is back, why aren't you buying like crazy?

[yefi]

People just wanted to believe that price was going to follow y = x^xxx

x^{xxxxxxxxxxxxzzzzzzzzzzz}zx^{xxxxxxxxxxxxzzzzzzzzzzz}z
        O              O
x_{xxxxxxxxxxxxzzzzzzzzzzz}zx_{xxxxxxxxxxxxzzzzzzzzzzz}z

          x_{xxxxxxxxxxxxx}

[JimboToronto]

just quick statistics based on 151 votes



139 - 92% of respondents believe it will be at least $2,000 by december

if we're to go by the majority, it looks like entering the bitcoin market at under $2,000 is a REASONABLE RISK if we believe it will be at least $2k by the end of the year.

The prevailing opinion at the time was that 4 digits was pretty much a given. 3k-7.5k was considered realistic.

Bear in mind though that this was before Gox crashed and burned. That changed everything.

It's easy for those who didn't join in until springtime to laugh at those numbers as being too high.

That's why they only make themselves look like fools when they smugly drag up old predictions that didn't pan out but were mainstream at the time.

[Tzupy]

By the time Gox went down its market share had shrunk, so it was important, but didn't "change everything", the bubble had to deflate anyway.
Unless you believe that Willy the bot could have continued to pump up the price with fake fiat up to 10k$.
Reading the first pages of this thread made me LOL, even the creator of this thread was a delusional permabull back then.

[JimboToronto]

By the time Gox went down its market share had shrunk, so it was important, but didn't "change everything", the bubble had to deflate anyway.
Unless you believe that Willy the bot could have continued to pump up the price with fake fiat up to 10k$.
Reading the first pages of this thread made me LOL, even the creator of this thread was a delusional permabull back then.

 

Part of the reason why Gox's demise changed everything was that Willy's existence wasn't discovered until Gox went down.

Hopefully even a permabear can grasp that concept.

[zoukenn]

Why don't you insert a parameter from 100$ and 500$ because at the end of year price will go around 100$ and 500$ ! Waiting for a future raise, maybe in the next year

[Tzupy]

By the time Gox went down its market share had shrunk, so it was important, but didn't "change everything", the bubble had to deflate anyway.
Unless you believe that Willy the bot could have continued to pump up the price with fake fiat up to 10k$.
Reading the first pages of this thread made me LOL, even the creator of this thread was a delusional permabull back then.

 

Part of the reason why Gox's demise changed everything was that Willy's existence wasn't discovered until Gox went down.

Hopefully even a permabear can grasp that concept.

So YOU DO believe that the price could have been pumped to 10k$ with fake fiat if the bot wouldn't have stopped.
I am for a genuine market, not a heavily manipulated one, and couldn't understand how easy some resistance levels were broken in 2013, now I know: it was faked.
The manipulator's plan (MtGox inside job IMO) was to build what looked like a genuine bubble with fake fiat, and then true fiat would come to the bubble.
He succeeded, but now the bubble has to deflate harder than "normal", because it has been faked for a long time.

[unent]

All them 1000+ guesses on the first pages. Delusional it was in hindsight. But hindsight is always better .

The poll shows 18.5% thought it will be $10,000+ but only 12.3% thought it will be between $100 and $500. Only a small minority are probably going to be right. In future polls I'm considering assuming the majority could be wrong.

[skivrmt]

All them 1000+ guesses on the first pages. Delusional it was in hindsight. But hindsight is always better .

The poll shows 18.5% thought it will be $10,000+ but only 12.3% thought it will be between $100 and $500. Only a small minority are probably going to be right. In future polls I'm considering assuming the majority could be wrong.

In any poll where most people have a financial incentive for the price to be higher rather than lower I wouldn't go with the majority.

[MS.drawing]

Its funny to see this thread on year after ...

[ravenjt]

The end is nigh

[BittBurger]

We are all fucking idiots.

-B-

[bornil267645]

it will not change a bit...the price will remain the same.

[sgk]

So, 31st Dec is here and I'm looking at the poll results now.

Apparently, 12.9% people reported it correctly, predicting BTC price at $100+ levels but below $500.

Majority of the people (18.4%) said the price would cross $10,000 !! I wish it was true

[Malin Keshar]

lol at most of people voting for 10k+

also please close the poll before people start to troll the results

[Silverspoon]

What the experts predicted a year ago:
http://foundersgrid.com/bitcoin-price

[MrBig]

What the experts predicted a year ago:
http://foundersgrid.com/bitcoin-price

Those folks were all making predictions based on the November 2013 bull run. Just goes to show that even the so-called bitcoin experts are really just as clueless as your average Joe.

[ssmc2]

We are all fucking idiots.

-B-

lol true that

[resya]

Just take a look at 1d chart, the wedge is getting smaller and smaller, I think it will explode up or down very soon. if it explodes it will goto 400+ and everyone holding fiat will cry

[Unbelive]

What will the price be at the end of the year?

I will bump this thread at the end of the year to display the % of whom were correct.

it will be $100+

Not that hard to guess I guess.

[mskryxz]

GG Happy New year!

[mskryxz]

I'll be posting another Poll on Jan 1, 2016. Just wanted to bump to show others the results back in 2014.