Hi
I am interested in bitcoin of itself ie to use as a payment system but am very interested in seeing how commentators in the media, researchers etc are going about making predictions for the future value of bitcoin.
Depending on their approach/assumptions and the nature of their model that they run various data across the results vary wildly.
the latest prediction is on another part of this forum ....
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=394221.msg4251386#msg4251386.......... but as a newbie i cannot yet post to it so am doing so here.
the problem i see just as as another poster has made is that it is not adjusted for when bumps in the road happen ( eg china banks).
I also think we are still in most of these models in the "draw an elephant" phase. (ie if you did not know what an elephant looked like would you draw the body like it is after seeing only either the trunk or the tail).
Anyhow from my reading of the researchers findings at least 3 possible values are being suggested
1. less than $50 ( assumes bitcoin crashes ie it works as a medium of exchange but has no real stored value so speculators get out at some point)
2. about $1300 ( but this is a maximum after quite a long period ( several years). there may well be big highs and lows before this level is achieved.)
3. $2000- $4000 in about 12 months time ( based on the prediction model mentioned above).
Now that is quite a range. tread carefully
