Green shoot analysis - volume increasing

[T.Stuart]

Thanks very much - I read through some of your presentation and I will do so again alongside the other one tomorrow when I have an hour or so to think about it.

Could I ask you if you have found that Bitcoin generally translates well into traditional forex analysis or is it more difficult to judge, perhaps due to factors such as "hodling" and people's expectations that it will go far, perhaps a high proportion of Bitcoin owners who are not traders, etc. What are your thoughts on this?

[1714938570]

1714938570

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks very much - I read through some of your presentation and I will do so again alongside the other one tomorrow when I have an hour or so to think about it.

Could I ask you if you have found that Bitcoin generally translates well into traditional forex analysis or is it more difficult to judge, perhaps due to factors such as "hodling" and people's expectations that it will go far, perhaps a high proportion of Bitcoin owners who are not traders, etc. What are your thoughts on this?

Certain methods work better for certain asset classes than for others. Waves and TA in Bitcoin tend to act more like commodities than stocks (wave-5 tends to be the longest from a price perspective whereas stocks have longer 3rd waves)
Bitcoin, being so new, takes time to find what works for your specific style of trading, so it can be more difficult. I do find that because there are so many "HODLers" and the lack of desire to learn TA by many here, some things that work very well in FOREX and commodities, don't work so well in Bitcoin. Others work quite well. It's' really up to you and how well you understand a method to determine if it's right for you. I do pretty well, but I'm not going to share my special sauce.

[T.Stuart]

Thanks!

[arepo]

Well doesn't this data (the volume bars at the bottom of the image) show consistently bullish up movements, at more regular and certainly more voluminous rates than the downward red movements? Please let me know if I have misread it.

ah yes i see what you mean now. not sure if it can be said that this data alone predicted the movement we just saw but it was a good bull signal to notice. well done.

--arepo

[T.Stuart]

Well doesn't this data (the volume bars at the bottom of the image) show consistently bullish up movements, at more regular and certainly more voluminous rates than the downward red movements? Please let me know if I have misread it.

ah yes i see what you mean now. not sure if it can be said that this data alone predicted the movement we just saw but it was a good bull signal to notice. well done.

--arepo

Thanks for the clarification!

[T.Stuart]

More green shoots!

As Gox goes sideways, zoom in on the minute scale.



What do you see at the volume level? A nice majority of green shoots!

Why don't they make the price move upwards? Because of the ask wall on Gox.

But what they do suggest is that buying pressure is greater than selling pressure on a microcosmic scale.

Last time I called out this indicator we moved into a significant uptrend around an hour later.

[Apostata]

I keep hearing "Green Shoots" and "microcosmic" trends.  If you want to talk about TA you may want to have a look at babypips, they have a great school for analysis http://www.babypips.com/school.  I'd recommend you have a look. 

Also I'd recommend zooming out on your charts.  1 minute charts are too narrow.  Zoom out, 15m minimum, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily.

Also, volume has decreased fairly significantly over the past couple of weeks.

And the "green shoots" are called "candlesticks".

[T.Stuart]

I keep hearing "Green Shoots" and "microcosmic" trends.  If you want to talk about TA you may want to have a look at babypips, they have a great school for analysis http://www.babypips.com/school.  I'd recommend you have a look. 

Also I'd recommend zooming out on your charts.  1 minute charts are too narrow.  Zoom out, 15m minimum, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily.

Also, volume has decreased fairly significantly over the past couple of weeks.

And the "green shoots" are called "candlesticks".

It is something to look at only in periods of stagnant sideways movement.

It's the volume bars I'm looking at not the candlesticks.

Thanks for the link!

[Ducky1]

Green shots are back today..

[TERA]

Green shots are back today..

Can you explain? I see what appears to be the record lowest volume day since October.

[deadfi$h]

I keep hearing "Green Shoots" and "microcosmic" trends.  If you want to talk about TA you may want to have a look at babypips, they have a great school for analysis http://www.babypips.com/school.  I'd recommend you have a look. 

Also I'd recommend zooming out on your charts.  1 minute charts are too narrow.  Zoom out, 15m minimum, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily.

This.

Assuming there even is more volume on the upside (it's unclear), you would have to wait for an actual price movement anyways to confirm. If the volume isn't significant enough to move price, it isn't significant enough to be a reliable indicator. That makes this analysis very very close to pointless.

[T.Stuart]

I keep hearing "Green Shoots" and "microcosmic" trends.  If you want to talk about TA you may want to have a look at babypips, they have a great school for analysis http://www.babypips.com/school.  I'd recommend you have a look. 

Also I'd recommend zooming out on your charts.  1 minute charts are too narrow.  Zoom out, 15m minimum, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily.

This.

Assuming there even is more volume on the upside (it's unclear), you would have to wait for an actual price movement anyways to confirm. If the volume isn't significant enough to move price, it isn't significant enough to be a reliable indicator. That makes this analysis very very close to pointless.

More significant than you think in the market today, with the positive sentiment and the record level of hodling going on.

If the market is going sideways - I mean really straight - then the minute level can give you a clue as to sentiment in this way, even if the price doesn't move.

The reason it doesn't move is because there is a sell wall. The small buys are nibbling that wall. But there are still more buys than sells. That's market sentiment.

Thinking on this level is going to become more useful as time goes on because there are going to be increasing numbers of small buyers - minnows - and together they will be a force to be reckoned with.

A couple of weeks back the market was going sideways. People were looking to the direction of the break but if I remember correctly no-one called it clearly - everyone saying it was too close to call. But I saw a significant majority of these small buys on the Gox minute scale, eating at a large wall. It looked quite clear that it was only a matter of time before this pressure had an effect. After a couple of hours the wall was gone and when the price started moving up, people piled in.

[esse83]

Most of the "green shoots" is being created by a bot buying around 10-19 btc every 8 minutes. Last time it was turned on it ran for weeks, I believe it was turned on yesterday.

[T.Stuart]

Most of the "green shoots" is being created by a bot buying around 10-19 btc every 8 minutes. Last time it was turned on it ran for weeks, I believe it was turned on yesterday.

The market is made up of human beings, machines and all sorts! Everything has to be taken into account.

[TERA]

I keep hearing "Green Shoots" and "microcosmic" trends.  If you want to talk about TA you may want to have a look at babypips, they have a great school for analysis http://www.babypips.com/school.  I'd recommend you have a look. 

Also I'd recommend zooming out on your charts.  1 minute charts are too narrow.  Zoom out, 15m minimum, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily.

This.

Assuming there even is more volume on the upside (it's unclear), you would have to wait for an actual price movement anyways to confirm. If the volume isn't significant enough to move price, it isn't significant enough to be a reliable indicator. That makes this analysis very very close to pointless.

More significant than you think in the market today, with the positive sentiment and the record level of hodling going on.

If the market is going sideways - I mean really straight - then the minute level can give you a clue as to sentiment in this way, even if the price doesn't move.

The reason it doesn't move is because there is a sell wall. The small buys are nibbling that wall. But there are still more buys than sells. That's market sentiment.

Thinking on this level is going to become more useful as time goes on because there are going to be increasing numbers of small buyers - minnows - and together they will be a force to be reckoned with.

A couple of weeks back the market was going sideways. People were looking to the direction of the break but if I remember correctly no-one called it clearly - everyone saying it was too close to call. But I saw a significant majority of these small buys on the Gox minute scale, eating at a large wall. It looked quite clear that it was only a matter of time before this pressure had an effect. After a couple of hours the wall was gone and when the price started moving up, people piled in.

A couple weeks ago all the indicators on the daily chart were still up and there was still a clear trendline intact which led to a triangle breakout.

[T.Stuart]

A couple weeks ago all the indicators on the daily chart were still up and there was still a clear trendline intact which led to a triangle breakout.

I think it was 31 December. I don't know if that was when you were on holiday, remember?

No-one would call it either way. That was clear. I think the majority had no confidence in the trend.

[TERA]

A couple weeks ago all the indicators on the daily chart were still up and there was still a clear trendline intact which led to a triangle breakout.

I think it was 31 December. I don't know if that was when you were on holiday, remember?

No-one would call it either way. That was clear. I think the majority had no confidence in the trend.

Yes but at least a trend was there. Today we are hoping for this miracle recovery after the trend was just recently broken and daily MACD is down.

[T.Stuart]

A couple weeks ago all the indicators on the daily chart were still up and there was still a clear trendline intact which led to a triangle breakout.

I think it was 31 December. I don't know if that was when you were on holiday, remember?

No-one would call it either way. That was clear. I think the majority had no confidence in the trend.

Yes but at least a trend was there. Today we are hoping for this miracle recovery after the trend was just recently broken and daily MACD is down.

Yeah but be honest, you are probably a bit surprised that this particular crash down hasn't happened yet aren't you?

All I can say is that a couple of weeks back the first in a line of experts proposed two scenarios to occur within a day or two: a large crash or a sharp uptrend. He gave the latter odds of 1:100 of happening.

Just watch over the days to come. We will start going up again into a new trend after this consolidation.

[Apostata]

More significant than you think in the market today, with the positive sentiment and the record level of hodling going on.

If the market is going sideways - I mean really straight - then the minute level can give you a clue as to sentiment in this way, even if the price doesn't move.

The reason it doesn't move is because there is a sell wall. The small buys are nibbling that wall. But there are still more buys than sells. That's market sentiment.

Thinking on this level is going to become more useful as time goes on because there are going to be increasing numbers of small buyers - minnows - and together they will be a force to be reckoned with.

Look, I can appreciate your enthusiasm, but the 1m charts give absolutely no indication of anything at all.  And over the past couple of days, and today in particular, volume (your "green shoots") is dropping in a big way. 

[Apostata]

Assuming there even is more volume on the upside (it's unclear), you would have to wait for an actual price movement anyways to confirm. If the volume isn't significant enough to move price, it isn't significant enough to be a reliable indicator. That makes this analysis very very close to pointless.

Exactly.